| Christmas Carnage? 13:11 - Dec 18 with 34788 views | Sadoldgit |
Infection rates are generally rising fast despite the tier systems so you can imagine the spike after the free for all Christmas period. Johnson obviously doesn’t want to be seen as a Grinch but by not closing down Christmas there will be a lot fewer people enjoying it with their loved ones next year.
We are battening down the hatches this Christmas. I just hope that people are sensible and do the same. Sadly though I think people will just go for it and be damned. |  | | |  |
| Christmas Carnage? on 10:33 - Jan 18 with 1363 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 19:57 - Jan 17 by grumpy |
Science isn’t done on assumptions. |
Have you heard of empirical research, on which most modern scientific understanding is based? You start of with a hypothesis, (assumption) which you test to see if it stands up. Over time, the hypothesis is revised, and "accepted" truth is established. The trouble with science though, is that every few years or decades, those truths get disproved, oddly enough, by other scientists who, using further empirical research, determine a better assumption that stands up to the tests of reality a bit better. That is what actually happens in fact.
Scientific knowledge IS assumptions, tested assumptions, by people who are not satisfied with the simplistic assumptions made previously and accepted as FACT, but which does not stand up to ongoing scrutiny of what actually happens in the real world. I'd be interested to hear your explanation of how scientific, mathematical or pretty much any other knowledge development occurs. |  |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 12:10 - Jan 18 with 1325 views | kentsouthampton |
| Christmas Carnage? on 10:33 - Jan 18 by Berber |
Have you heard of empirical research, on which most modern scientific understanding is based? You start of with a hypothesis, (assumption) which you test to see if it stands up. Over time, the hypothesis is revised, and "accepted" truth is established. The trouble with science though, is that every few years or decades, those truths get disproved, oddly enough, by other scientists who, using further empirical research, determine a better assumption that stands up to the tests of reality a bit better. That is what actually happens in fact.
Scientific knowledge IS assumptions, tested assumptions, by people who are not satisfied with the simplistic assumptions made previously and accepted as FACT, but which does not stand up to ongoing scrutiny of what actually happens in the real world. I'd be interested to hear your explanation of how scientific, mathematical or pretty much any other knowledge development occurs. |
Proper maths is done on the back of a cigarette packet. |  | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 15:42 - Jan 18 with 1288 views | grumpy |
| Christmas Carnage? on 10:33 - Jan 18 by Berber |
Have you heard of empirical research, on which most modern scientific understanding is based? You start of with a hypothesis, (assumption) which you test to see if it stands up. Over time, the hypothesis is revised, and "accepted" truth is established. The trouble with science though, is that every few years or decades, those truths get disproved, oddly enough, by other scientists who, using further empirical research, determine a better assumption that stands up to the tests of reality a bit better. That is what actually happens in fact.
Scientific knowledge IS assumptions, tested assumptions, by people who are not satisfied with the simplistic assumptions made previously and accepted as FACT, but which does not stand up to ongoing scrutiny of what actually happens in the real world. I'd be interested to hear your explanation of how scientific, mathematical or pretty much any other knowledge development occurs. |
Can you explain this that you posted because it makes no sense to me.
'The history of scientific discovery shows that whatever scientific facts are currently accepted as true, are subsequently proven to be based on incorrect assumptions and incomplete knowledge, and not actually correct, even if vaguely close'
Are you saying scientific facts we have at the moment are very likely incorrect?
and what it has to do with the controversy over Christmas? [Post edited 18 Jan 2021 16:10]
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| Christmas Carnage? on 17:24 - Jan 18 with 1254 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 15:42 - Jan 18 by grumpy |
Can you explain this that you posted because it makes no sense to me.
'The history of scientific discovery shows that whatever scientific facts are currently accepted as true, are subsequently proven to be based on incorrect assumptions and incomplete knowledge, and not actually correct, even if vaguely close'
Are you saying scientific facts we have at the moment are very likely incorrect?
and what it has to do with the controversy over Christmas? [Post edited 18 Jan 2021 16:10]
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In simple terms yes. The explanation was in response to your post that science is not based on assumptions , per the Quote box from your post included in the response. Try reading the basic argument in Zen ad the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, if not there are numerous other academic and journalistic articles explaining the same thing if you use Google. This argument is even accepted in the scientific community.
My original post referencing the BBC article was because I was replying to a post in the argument that it was obvious that the Christmas distancing regime allowing mixing was bound to increase the case rate. The BBC article refutes this. If you bothered to post about the basis of scientific reliability, I assume you can follow the thread? | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 17:41 - Jan 18 with 1240 views | grumpy |
| Christmas Carnage? on 17:24 - Jan 18 by Berber |
In simple terms yes. The explanation was in response to your post that science is not based on assumptions , per the Quote box from your post included in the response. Try reading the basic argument in Zen ad the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, if not there are numerous other academic and journalistic articles explaining the same thing if you use Google. This argument is even accepted in the scientific community.
My original post referencing the BBC article was because I was replying to a post in the argument that it was obvious that the Christmas distancing regime allowing mixing was bound to increase the case rate. The BBC article refutes this. If you bothered to post about the basis of scientific reliability, I assume you can follow the thread? |
Your have to forgive me if I give the reading of Zen ad the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance a miss. | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 18:31 - Jan 18 with 1214 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 17:41 - Jan 18 by grumpy |
Your have to forgive me if I give the reading of Zen ad the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance a miss. |
Haha, It sounds weird, is about a recovering mad man sinking back into insanity and is a bit heavy for a slim volume. But the early bit about art vs science is interesting and demolishes the science is fact argument. It took me 3 goes and about 3 years to finish it. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 18:41 - Jan 18 with 1201 views | grumpy |
| Christmas Carnage? on 18:31 - Jan 18 by Berber |
Haha, It sounds weird, is about a recovering mad man sinking back into insanity and is a bit heavy for a slim volume. But the early bit about art vs science is interesting and demolishes the science is fact argument. It took me 3 goes and about 3 years to finish it. |
Just finished Istanbul by Bettany Hughes(Very Good),now reading Mirror and the Light by Hilary Mantel. | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 19:15 - Jan 18 with 1180 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 18:41 - Jan 18 by grumpy |
Just finished Istanbul by Bettany Hughes(Very Good),now reading Mirror and the Light by Hilary Mantel. |
I usually stick to crime novels, but managed to get through "Bring Up the Bodies" by Mantel. Very odd indeed (and nothing to do with Christmas  ) | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 19:50 - Jan 18 with 1158 views | Sadoldgit |
The infection rate is in its way down here in Kent after several weeks of high rates. Proof of any was needed about the effectiveness of locking down widely. | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 20:01 - Jan 18 with 1152 views | Bazza |
| Christmas Carnage? on 19:15 - Jan 18 by Berber |
I usually stick to crime novels, but managed to get through "Bring Up the Bodies" by Mantel. Very odd indeed (and nothing to do with Christmas ) |
If you like crime novels and historical settings I highly recommend any of the Shardlake novels set in Tudor times. In my view as good as Hilary Mantel for authenticity plus they are crime mysteries solved by a lawyer working near Cromwell and Henry viii. Author is C J Sansom. |  | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 20:44 - Jan 18 with 1126 views | DorsetIan |
| Christmas Carnage? on 17:24 - Jan 18 by Berber |
In simple terms yes. The explanation was in response to your post that science is not based on assumptions , per the Quote box from your post included in the response. Try reading the basic argument in Zen ad the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, if not there are numerous other academic and journalistic articles explaining the same thing if you use Google. This argument is even accepted in the scientific community.
My original post referencing the BBC article was because I was replying to a post in the argument that it was obvious that the Christmas distancing regime allowing mixing was bound to increase the case rate. The BBC article refutes this. If you bothered to post about the basis of scientific reliability, I assume you can follow the thread? |
Unfortunately, the experts on here have already dismissed the BBC article and the ONS report that underlies it as methodologically flawed.
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance is a brilliant book. Read it 30 years ago and it had a big impact in terms of opening my eyes to the limits of scientific method. The subtitle 'An Inquiry into Values' is a good one.
As for historical crime, Philip Kerr's Bernie Gunter books are great. There are many on here with an interest in WW2 - the books follow a Berlin detective from about 1935 to 1950 via Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Argentina, Cuba. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 21:04 - Jan 18 with 1116 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 19:50 - Jan 18 by Sadoldgit |
The infection rate is in its way down here in Kent after several weeks of high rates. Proof of any was needed about the effectiveness of locking down widely. |
And hooray for that. If people stick to the rules, it will have the desired effect. The reason given for no Christmas spike are that people voluntarily did not meet up, not that contact has no effect. All of my family celebrated at home alone, as did our friends and most of the families in my street. A large part of the population must have done likewise. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 21:17 - Jan 18 with 1107 views | grumpy |
| Christmas Carnage? on 21:04 - Jan 18 by Berber |
And hooray for that. If people stick to the rules, it will have the desired effect. The reason given for no Christmas spike are that people voluntarily did not meet up, not that contact has no effect. All of my family celebrated at home alone, as did our friends and most of the families in my street. A large part of the population must have done likewise. |
But you don't know that for sure.
The new variant and Christmas must have had an affect. | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 21:26 - Jan 18 with 1096 views | DorsetIan |
| Christmas Carnage? on 21:17 - Jan 18 by grumpy |
But you don't know that for sure.
The new variant and Christmas must have had an affect. |
Mainly the new variant, according to the BBC report. It was suggesting that Christmas mixing was not a huge factor in the context of an already accelerating virus due to the new variant - and especially as mixing had been reduced from the original 5 days. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 21:51 - Jan 18 with 1085 views | grumpy |
| Christmas Carnage? on 21:26 - Jan 18 by DorsetIan |
Mainly the new variant, according to the BBC report. It was suggesting that Christmas mixing was not a huge factor in the context of an already accelerating virus due to the new variant - and especially as mixing had been reduced from the original 5 days. |
Giving a 5 day break at Christmas during such a serious virus was ridiculous even before it was reduced to 1 with the advent of the new strain.
So many mixed messages has had a profound affect on dealing with this pandemic. | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 22:14 - Jan 18 with 1075 views | DorsetIan |
| Christmas Carnage? on 21:51 - Jan 18 by grumpy |
Giving a 5 day break at Christmas during such a serious virus was ridiculous even before it was reduced to 1 with the advent of the new strain.
So many mixed messages has had a profound affect on dealing with this pandemic. |
I think particularly the messaging and the 'track and trace' have been truly woeful. The rest of it, they've done their best but have always been too slow, and dithering has cost lives.
Thankfully, early signs for the vaccine roll out are that it might be quite impressive. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 22:38 - Jan 18 with 1066 views | Saintsforeverj |
| Christmas Carnage? on 22:14 - Jan 18 by DorsetIan |
I think particularly the messaging and the 'track and trace' have been truly woeful. The rest of it, they've done their best but have always been too slow, and dithering has cost lives.
Thankfully, early signs for the vaccine roll out are that it might be quite impressive. |
A relatively fair assessment. The mixed messaging is based on having to do the extremely difficult / impossible job of balancing the economy and human rights vs health. Lockdown the country and people will lose their jobs, their kids' mental health / education will be destroyed, people's lives destroyed and there will be a disastrous economic consequence. Or the choice was don't lockdown and hundreds of thousands die of the virus and the NHS collapses. I would like to see what decisions those critising, would have made.
I personally understand how difficult it must have been making these decisions. Add to that new variants etc. Countries across the whole world have been in and out of lockdown, changing their decisions. Wales and Scotland being the obvious examples of last minute decisions. The NHS has just about survived through this, and as you say the vaccine rollout is excellent. The furlough scheme has been a lifesaver too. It is what it is and I think the government had done a reasonable job considering. [Post edited 18 Jan 2021 23:18]
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| Christmas Carnage? on 09:24 - Jan 19 with 1003 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 21:17 - Jan 18 by grumpy |
But you don't know that for sure.
The new variant and Christmas must have had an affect. |
The article explains that the growth can be explained entirely by the new variant spreading across the country. based on what they know about the potency of new variant infection, they can deduce there is little or no impact from Christmas mixing. As we have discussed, there are no absolute truths in science, maths or anything to do with statistics, just best judgement assessments based on what we DO know. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 09:32 - Jan 19 with 1001 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 21:51 - Jan 18 by grumpy |
Giving a 5 day break at Christmas during such a serious virus was ridiculous even before it was reduced to 1 with the advent of the new strain.
So many mixed messages has had a profound affect on dealing with this pandemic. |
Given how many people have claimed the changes were confusing would indicate that they understand the difference. Which isn't confusing at all. Same for the Tier rules. You only have to know one set of rules for where you live. As things get better, we all expect the rules to slacken off. Nobody complains about it being confusing when things get better do they? This suggests that the "confusing" claims are not real and the usual suspects in the media are first in the queue when the moaning starts. They never say, this is the right thing to do, but it could have been done better by doing THIS... do they? | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 09:38 - Jan 19 with 992 views | Sadoldgit |
| Christmas Carnage? on 22:14 - Jan 18 by DorsetIan |
I think particularly the messaging and the 'track and trace' have been truly woeful. The rest of it, they've done their best but have always been too slow, and dithering has cost lives.
Thankfully, early signs for the vaccine roll out are that it might be quite impressive. |
I completely agree about track and trace. It is has been a very expensive disaster. Given that it was touted as the way forward during the early days it is a measure of the governments incompetence that they have still to get this sorted properly. They had the summer to sort it out and a decent system could have prevented another lockdown and kept the mortality rate down. They have been given a Get Out Of Jail card by the speed by which the pharma companies managed to get their products on line, but we still don’t know what affect the programme will have on controlling the virus so a functioning track and trace system is still needed.
No matter who you vote for, you expect competent governance by whoever gets in. Time and time again this government have shown anything but. The latest debacle over feeding underprivileged kids is one in a long line of episodes where they have shown that they are out of touch with what is needed by our society. If you go through the list if cabinet ministers you will find a long list of incompetent, arrogant, out of touch people that any sane person wouldn’t have near their local councils let alone government.
America are fortunate in that they get rid of a totally inept president tomorrow. Sadly we still have a few years before we get our say on this bunch. Whoever follows though faces the unenviable task of rebuilding an economy ravaged by the pandemic and by Brexit. | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 11:08 - Jan 19 with 971 views | grumpy |
| Christmas Carnage? on 09:32 - Jan 19 by Berber |
Given how many people have claimed the changes were confusing would indicate that they understand the difference. Which isn't confusing at all. Same for the Tier rules. You only have to know one set of rules for where you live. As things get better, we all expect the rules to slacken off. Nobody complains about it being confusing when things get better do they? This suggests that the "confusing" claims are not real and the usual suspects in the media are first in the queue when the moaning starts. They never say, this is the right thing to do, but it could have been done better by doing THIS... do they? |
'They never say, this is the right thing to do'
So people shouldn't complain without having an answer to what they are complaining about?
Its like Boris saying to Starmer, well what would you do? He hasn't a 80 odd seat majority has he? So he can only hold the government to account by giving the facts.
If were confused its not because we understand the difference. | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 11:28 - Jan 19 with 964 views | Berber |
| Christmas Carnage? on 11:08 - Jan 19 by grumpy |
'They never say, this is the right thing to do'
So people shouldn't complain without having an answer to what they are complaining about?
Its like Boris saying to Starmer, well what would you do? He hasn't a 80 odd seat majority has he? So he can only hold the government to account by giving the facts.
If were confused its not because we understand the difference. |
That is a good point, but the media attack politicians repeatedly for real or perceived faults. They put themselves in the position of knowing better without having anything more to offer. Other politicians cannot take the same approach. Certainly they are not in a position to act on their beliefs, but without offering a viable alternative, they are also showing that they are not worth a vote, because they cannot do any better. I have a bigger problem with the media, because they affect how people feel about their circumstances every hour of every day. Politicians do not have the audience access, though most of us think we hear more than enough from them already. That Vaccination Minister is a t0sser though, not telling us anything about how the plan is going to work and what the risks to success are. Luckily for him, GPs like the money, which is why they don't want the mass centres set up. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 16:31 - Jan 19 with 926 views | Sadoldgit |
Death toll today 1620. 96,000 overall. Still very grim. Add to that over 20 people have died since having the vaccine in Norway and you have to wonder if there is any light at the end of the tunnel yet? | | | |
| Christmas Carnage? on 16:37 - Jan 19 with 923 views | Saintsforeverj |
| Christmas Carnage? on 16:31 - Jan 19 by Sadoldgit |
Death toll today 1620. 96,000 overall. Still very grim. Add to that over 20 people have died since having the vaccine in Norway and you have to wonder if there is any light at the end of the tunnel yet? |
Yes the lockdown is starting to work. Crucially, infection rates today, are half of what they were last Monday. The death rate won't come down until the reduced infection rate has an impact. The Norway thing has been discredited. We are heading out of this. | |
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| Christmas Carnage? on 16:42 - Jan 19 with 922 views | grumpy |
| Christmas Carnage? on 22:38 - Jan 18 by Saintsforeverj |
A relatively fair assessment. The mixed messaging is based on having to do the extremely difficult / impossible job of balancing the economy and human rights vs health. Lockdown the country and people will lose their jobs, their kids' mental health / education will be destroyed, people's lives destroyed and there will be a disastrous economic consequence. Or the choice was don't lockdown and hundreds of thousands die of the virus and the NHS collapses. I would like to see what decisions those critising, would have made.
I personally understand how difficult it must have been making these decisions. Add to that new variants etc. Countries across the whole world have been in and out of lockdown, changing their decisions. Wales and Scotland being the obvious examples of last minute decisions. The NHS has just about survived through this, and as you say the vaccine rollout is excellent. The furlough scheme has been a lifesaver too. It is what it is and I think the government had done a reasonable job considering. [Post edited 18 Jan 2021 23:18]
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' I think the government had done a reasonable job considering'
Really! | | | |
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