| Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 141345 views | Glyn1 |
That's basically it.
Thoughts please. [Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:36 - Aug 18 with 1455 views | Catullus |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:16 - Aug 17 by Kilkennyjack |
So ......you are suggesting that England who locked down late and opened up too early, and has large vulnerable groups In big cities .... has lower rates than Wales ... who locked down longer and has less cities and less large vulnerable groups ...
Yep, makes perfect sense to me ..... 🤷â€â™‚ï¸ |
When you are presented with a fact, the numbers put up for you to see, how is it logical to say what you said?
Do you understandhow percentages work? |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:50 - Aug 18 with 1409 views | exhmrc1 |
There are those who suggest I am selective in the figures I use but here is is one showing the rate in every county in Wales with an average of 2.9 for Wales against the English average of 6 with many very high authorities
County cases per 100000 residents in the week
Wrexham 12.5
Vale of Glam 5.2
Denbighshire 5.2
Gwynedd 4.8
Flintshire 4.5
Cardiff 4.1
Newport 3.9
Carmarthenshire 3.2
WALES 2.9
Angelsey 2.9
Caerphilly 2.8
Rhondda Cynon Taff 2.5
Conwy 1.7
Pembrokeshire 1.6
Blaenau Gwent 1.4
Monmouth 1.1
Swansea 0.8
Powys 0.8
Neath Port Talbot 0.7
Bridgend 0
Ceredigion 0
Merthyr Tydfil 0
Torfaen 0 | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:45 - Aug 18 with 1390 views | BillyChong |
God knows what sort of figures england will come up with now they've got Dido Harding running ‘public health‘. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:29 - Aug 18 with 1381 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:45 - Aug 18 by BillyChong |
God knows what sort of figures england will come up with now they've got Dido Harding running ‘public health‘. |
Youd get good odds on her getting it wrong | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:33 - Aug 18 with 1379 views | Gwyn737 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:50 - Aug 18 by exhmrc1 |
There are those who suggest I am selective in the figures I use but here is is one showing the rate in every county in Wales with an average of 2.9 for Wales against the English average of 6 with many very high authorities
County cases per 100000 residents in the week
Wrexham 12.5
Vale of Glam 5.2
Denbighshire 5.2
Gwynedd 4.8
Flintshire 4.5
Cardiff 4.1
Newport 3.9
Carmarthenshire 3.2
WALES 2.9
Angelsey 2.9
Caerphilly 2.8
Rhondda Cynon Taff 2.5
Conwy 1.7
Pembrokeshire 1.6
Blaenau Gwent 1.4
Monmouth 1.1
Swansea 0.8
Powys 0.8
Neath Port Talbot 0.7
Bridgend 0
Ceredigion 0
Merthyr Tydfil 0
Torfaen 0 |
I don’t think it’s a case of you being selective, it’s more that England unlocked far earlier so it’s not a robust comparison. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:43 - Aug 18 with 1374 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:50 - Aug 18 by exhmrc1 |
There are those who suggest I am selective in the figures I use but here is is one showing the rate in every county in Wales with an average of 2.9 for Wales against the English average of 6 with many very high authorities
County cases per 100000 residents in the week
Wrexham 12.5
Vale of Glam 5.2
Denbighshire 5.2
Gwynedd 4.8
Flintshire 4.5
Cardiff 4.1
Newport 3.9
Carmarthenshire 3.2
WALES 2.9
Angelsey 2.9
Caerphilly 2.8
Rhondda Cynon Taff 2.5
Conwy 1.7
Pembrokeshire 1.6
Blaenau Gwent 1.4
Monmouth 1.1
Swansea 0.8
Powys 0.8
Neath Port Talbot 0.7
Bridgend 0
Ceredigion 0
Merthyr Tydfil 0
Torfaen 0 |
Game, set and match.
Exhmrc wins the internet. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:44 - Aug 18 with 1373 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:33 - Aug 18 by Gwyn737 |
I don’t think it’s a case of you being selective, it’s more that England unlocked far earlier so it’s not a robust comparison. |
Well it proves Johnson was wrong again. | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:51 - Aug 19 with 1357 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:33 - Aug 18 by Gwyn737 |
I don’t think it’s a case of you being selective, it’s more that England unlocked far earlier so it’s not a robust comparison. |
It wasnt you who claimed that. I agree England unlocked far earlier and in my eyes far too early as that is what caused their figures to rise. We are still waiting to see for definite whether the opening of pubs has caused the same problem as in England but the signs are pretty positive. The tests are up to 16 August and that is nearly 2 weeks after the opening so should be showing now. The big issue is whether the crowds the weekend before last might cause problems but we are a few days from knowing that. Certainly the daily figures have not shown a massive increase yet in the way it has elsewhere,
The figures quite clearly show that every county other than Wrexham is below the English average and there is nowhere with the huge problems that are occurring in the North West, North East, Yorkshire, East Midlands, West Midlands, the East, London, shire counties and along the M4 corridor. Most parts of England, | | | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:10 - Aug 19 with 1350 views | Gwyn737 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:51 - Aug 19 by exhmrc1 |
It wasnt you who claimed that. I agree England unlocked far earlier and in my eyes far too early as that is what caused their figures to rise. We are still waiting to see for definite whether the opening of pubs has caused the same problem as in England but the signs are pretty positive. The tests are up to 16 August and that is nearly 2 weeks after the opening so should be showing now. The big issue is whether the crowds the weekend before last might cause problems but we are a few days from knowing that. Certainly the daily figures have not shown a massive increase yet in the way it has elsewhere,
The figures quite clearly show that every county other than Wrexham is below the English average and there is nowhere with the huge problems that are occurring in the North West, North East, Yorkshire, East Midlands, West Midlands, the East, London, shire counties and along the M4 corridor. Most parts of England, |
I’m not challenging your figures - just saying they’re not comparable. There are no ‘winners’ here, certainly not until the long term impact of lockdown is factored in.
I’m no Johnson fan btw, but I don’t think any of our leaders have covered themselves in glory. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:33 - Aug 19 with 1348 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:10 - Aug 19 by Gwyn737 |
I’m not challenging your figures - just saying they’re not comparable. There are no ‘winners’ here, certainly not until the long term impact of lockdown is factored in.
I’m no Johnson fan btw, but I don’t think any of our leaders have covered themselves in glory. |
They aren't comparable figures at all. But exhmrc seems to think Ystradgynlais is comparable to Tower Hamlets, the "ethnics" in Cardiff to Blackburn and that Muslims in england all headed to the pub in July.
Of course there is an increase in England, they were in lockdoen and have been out for nearly two months, five weeks longer than Wales. All outbreask seem to be controlled, identified by hugely increased testing and the virus in the community is at least stable.
If anyone is worried about this situation wait until October! | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:54 - Aug 19 with 1335 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:33 - Aug 19 by Scotia |
They aren't comparable figures at all. But exhmrc seems to think Ystradgynlais is comparable to Tower Hamlets, the "ethnics" in Cardiff to Blackburn and that Muslims in england all headed to the pub in July.
Of course there is an increase in England, they were in lockdoen and have been out for nearly two months, five weeks longer than Wales. All outbreask seem to be controlled, identified by hugely increased testing and the virus in the community is at least stable.
If anyone is worried about this situation wait until October! |
Over a thousand yesterday again yesterday compared to 24 and over a thousand according to you is in control. How many days in July were there over a thousand. As far as Etnincs are concerned some do head to pubs. I know pakistani muslims who did, Ask ex Glamorgan players about some of them and their behaviour.
I show below the overall rate for Lancashire was 10% the same as Swansea and 1/2 Cardiff figure yet Lancashire is an area on the watch list. You simply cannot put everything down to ethnicity.
Regarding Ystradgynlais it is you who thinks it is a socially disadvantaged area because if its 23 deaths compared to much lower rates of death elsewhere in Swansea and the Swansea Valley including 5 areas in Wales top 30 most disadvantaged areas. You disputed the face it simply wasnt down to poorer areas when it showed from 3 to 7 times the rate in poorer areas.
.The usual resident population of the Lancashire-14 area was 1,460,893 in the 2011 Census. The largest ethnic group was white (90%). The black and minority ethnic (BME) group formed 10% of the population. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:46 - Aug 19 with 1316 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:54 - Aug 19 by exhmrc1 |
Over a thousand yesterday again yesterday compared to 24 and over a thousand according to you is in control. How many days in July were there over a thousand. As far as Etnincs are concerned some do head to pubs. I know pakistani muslims who did, Ask ex Glamorgan players about some of them and their behaviour.
I show below the overall rate for Lancashire was 10% the same as Swansea and 1/2 Cardiff figure yet Lancashire is an area on the watch list. You simply cannot put everything down to ethnicity.
Regarding Ystradgynlais it is you who thinks it is a socially disadvantaged area because if its 23 deaths compared to much lower rates of death elsewhere in Swansea and the Swansea Valley including 5 areas in Wales top 30 most disadvantaged areas. You disputed the face it simply wasnt down to poorer areas when it showed from 3 to 7 times the rate in poorer areas.
.The usual resident population of the Lancashire-14 area was 1,460,893 in the 2011 Census. The largest ethnic group was white (90%). The black and minority ethnic (BME) group formed 10% of the population. |
It was actually under a thousand yesterday in England - to answer your question regarding in excess of a thousand cases per day in England in July the answer again is 0. Don't forget they are also undertaking huge amounts of targeted testing (far more per head than Wales) and returning a positivity rate of about 0.7%.
You are comparing well off Pakistani muslim cricketers to the average multi-generational working class household in Lancashire? Does your life compare with the average Swans player? Mine doesn't.
Do you really think many Muslims go to their local pubs for a pint when alcohol is Haram?
It is not all down to ethnicity - although it may lead to an increase in mortality. It is down to lifestyle, especially multi - person households mixing with multi - person households. This is predominantly seen in south Asian communities - and other (often immigrant) - populations hence the outbreaks in Gtr Manchester and around factories. This was the reason the Manchester restrictions were imposed the day before Eid.
The last but one paragraph is actually somethng you stated to prove that depravation didn't result in increased death rates by comparing Ystradgynlais to Ystalyfera. There is nowhere in Wales that can really compare with the huge scale of depravation in England. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:18 - Aug 19 with 1294 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:44 - Aug 18 by Kilkennyjack |
Well it proves Johnson was wrong again. |
Good to see the ONS are going to increase the amount of random testing in England. This will help to identify new hot spots . I just hope the governments in NI Scotland and Wales will follow and not play party politics. This is particularly important in both NI and the republic of Ireland where the R rate is somewhere between 1 and 2 . | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:32 - Aug 19 with 1290 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:44 - Aug 18 by Kilkennyjack |
Well it proves Johnson was wrong again. |
Johnson knows you can't keep lockdown going for ever.
Even though England has eased lockdown earlier their infection rate is lower than Wales
Wales infections per 100,000 is 558
England infections per 100,000 is 491.
Why is it higher in Wales with tighter lockdown and lower testing rate? | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:50 - Aug 19 with 1271 views | Gwyn737 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:32 - Aug 19 by felixstowe_jack |
Johnson knows you can't keep lockdown going for ever.
Even though England has eased lockdown earlier their infection rate is lower than Wales
Wales infections per 100,000 is 558
England infections per 100,000 is 491.
Why is it higher in Wales with tighter lockdown and lower testing rate? |
...and there are benefits from coming out earlier - jobs and businesses saved, millions of kids back to school etc. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:00 - Aug 19 with 1268 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:50 - Aug 19 by Gwyn737 |
...and there are benefits from coming out earlier - jobs and businesses saved, millions of kids back to school etc. |
...Depression increased by 50% during lock down.
I have loved ones who are highly vulnerable but we have to strike a balance between controlling the virus and moving to as near normal as possible. I am no Tory but England seem to be doing ok so far. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:37 - Aug 19 with 1260 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:46 - Aug 19 by Scotia |
It was actually under a thousand yesterday in England - to answer your question regarding in excess of a thousand cases per day in England in July the answer again is 0. Don't forget they are also undertaking huge amounts of targeted testing (far more per head than Wales) and returning a positivity rate of about 0.7%.
You are comparing well off Pakistani muslim cricketers to the average multi-generational working class household in Lancashire? Does your life compare with the average Swans player? Mine doesn't.
Do you really think many Muslims go to their local pubs for a pint when alcohol is Haram?
It is not all down to ethnicity - although it may lead to an increase in mortality. It is down to lifestyle, especially multi - person households mixing with multi - person households. This is predominantly seen in south Asian communities - and other (often immigrant) - populations hence the outbreaks in Gtr Manchester and around factories. This was the reason the Manchester restrictions were imposed the day before Eid.
The last but one paragraph is actually somethng you stated to prove that depravation didn't result in increased death rates by comparing Ystradgynlais to Ystalyfera. There is nowhere in Wales that can really compare with the huge scale of depravation in England. |
As far as Pakistani cricketers some have also played locally and have gone to pubs and nightclubs. Not all muslims follow their strict religious rules. Some do whilst some dont. My experience tells me when they meet their parents both son and father follow it. When they are on their own neither follow it. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:30 - Aug 19 with 1239 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:37 - Aug 19 by exhmrc1 |
As far as Pakistani cricketers some have also played locally and have gone to pubs and nightclubs. Not all muslims follow their strict religious rules. Some do whilst some dont. My experience tells me when they meet their parents both son and father follow it. When they are on their own neither follow it. |
I'm sure some do. Having lived in a majority Islamic area of Brum I saw many Muslims in bookies watching cricket on sky, but never in a pub.
Without generalising I have never "seen" any in pubs in largely Muslim areas of Swansea.
Have you seen any in the Muslim populated parts of the swansea Valley? | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:59 - Aug 19 with 1224 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:30 - Aug 19 by Scotia |
I'm sure some do. Having lived in a majority Islamic area of Brum I saw many Muslims in bookies watching cricket on sky, but never in a pub.
Without generalising I have never "seen" any in pubs in largely Muslim areas of Swansea.
Have you seen any in the Muslim populated parts of the swansea Valley? |
Not a lot but we had a couple of cricketers who came over here to play. One of the guys came over and scored a hundred in his first game and as usual went to the pub. His father was with him so they didnt drink. As soon as the father went the player was drinking alcohol. One of our players who arranged for this guy to play knew the father through business. He said they never dunk when they were together but drunk when they were apart. Another one didnt dirnk when he first came but before he finished you couldnt stop him. He used to go to Mamma Mias/Paradise.
An ex Glamorgan player told me a story of one of our former players who drank like a fish. This particular day his father was over so he said to the welsh player. My fathers over so I cant drink today. Can you buy me a double and keep it. He then kept going back from his father saying he had to speak to the player, downed the double and went back to his father. I saw one pakistani player who I knew fairly well with a fag in one hand and a bottle of bud in the other. I said to him I though you mislims didnt dink. He said its water but later was done for drink driving claiming because he was a musim he didnt drink. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:28 - Aug 19 with 1199 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:50 - Aug 19 by Gwyn737 |
...and there are benefits from coming out earlier - jobs and businesses saved, millions of kids back to school etc. |
No ... leaving lockdown early risks the economy.
Lockdowns might follow making the economic situation far worse.
Leaving lockdown at the right time is the key.
Based on science and measures.
If the numbers are not right, then any release from lockdown needs to be put on hold.
This protects the economy And protects the progress made.
This is no time for guessing - as the herd immunity body count shows.
Feck Johnson (where is Johnson btw, twitter saying his wife has left him already). | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:38 - Aug 19 with 1196 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:37 - Aug 19 by exhmrc1 |
As far as Pakistani cricketers some have also played locally and have gone to pubs and nightclubs. Not all muslims follow their strict religious rules. Some do whilst some dont. My experience tells me when they meet their parents both son and father follow it. When they are on their own neither follow it. |
Remember seeing Waqar sinking a Bud after a big win at Sophia Gardens | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:41 - Aug 19 with 1194 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:32 - Aug 19 by felixstowe_jack |
Johnson knows you can't keep lockdown going for ever.
Even though England has eased lockdown earlier their infection rate is lower than Wales
Wales infections per 100,000 is 558
England infections per 100,000 is 491.
Why is it higher in Wales with tighter lockdown and lower testing rate? |
The answer is there- more testing rather than targeted testing will lower the rate. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:46 - Aug 19 with 1192 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:30 - Aug 19 by Scotia |
I'm sure some do. Having lived in a majority Islamic area of Brum I saw many Muslims in bookies watching cricket on sky, but never in a pub.
Without generalising I have never "seen" any in pubs in largely Muslim areas of Swansea.
Have you seen any in the Muslim populated parts of the swansea Valley? |
You are both right- the average Muslim is not a pub goer, but there are exceptions. Outbreaks in England are largely related to either pubs or community transmission in South Asian families as A consequence of family structure and poor understanding in older people. The latter not helped by limited information in Urdu and punjabi. Scotland is also as bad, just better public image | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:05 - Aug 20 with 1168 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:38 - Aug 19 by Professor |
Remember seeing Waqar sinking a Bud after a big win at Sophia Gardens |
I knew Waqar reasonably well and he was in the Beverley in Cardiff after a match with his then girlfriend Sharon. I said to him I thought you muslims didnt drink when he had his bottle of drink. He said its water but he was dinking Bud OK. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:27 - Aug 20 with 1146 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:28 - Aug 19 by Kilkennyjack |
No ... leaving lockdown early risks the economy.
Lockdowns might follow making the economic situation far worse.
Leaving lockdown at the right time is the key.
Based on science and measures.
If the numbers are not right, then any release from lockdown needs to be put on hold.
This protects the economy And protects the progress made.
This is no time for guessing - as the herd immunity body count shows.
Feck Johnson (where is Johnson btw, twitter saying his wife has left him already). |
I hate to say it you are correct. It certainly seems that England began to move out of lock down at the correct time. Certainly most of the country, with local restrictions where needed.
I was beginning to wonder where Boris is, but you could say the same for Drakeford. | | | |
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