| Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 149630 views | Glyn1 |
That's basically it.
Thoughts please. [Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:17 - Aug 6 with 2179 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:48 - Aug 6 by Scotia |
That second paragraph is the biggest pile of nonsense I've read. Probably ever.
I can't quite believe that you have said that because more people of died in Mumbles than Penderry that poverty doesn't impact covid outcomes. Nobody has said that the size of your bank account is an underlying health condition. Poverty and illness are about more than cash. Swansea is far, far too small a sample. In fact Wales in its entirity would be too small.
I'm honestly beginning to wonder when you last visited a large city.
I really can't be bothered anymore. |
Perhaps people should look for the real reason such as a Nursing Home in an area sufering many deaths. The reality is there is no major social difference between many of these areas and somewhere like the Ystradgynlais area really isnt that much different to places like Ystalyfera, Pontardawe and Clydach to have 3 or 4 times the number of deaths and this is also the case in Morriston. |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:11 - Aug 6 with 2119 views | exhmrc1 |
I very much doubt what you say is true as they base it on the Death certificate. What evidence do you have for your comments. You seem a bit blase over the issue. Do you also think that dying of say heart attacks or cancer arent because of those issues as well.
I cannot imagine these would not be the reason for the deaths. It is just the assumption that it is because of poverty although the evidence doesnt support that. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:24 - Aug 6 with 2095 views | longlostjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:17 - Aug 6 by exhmrc1 |
Perhaps people should look for the real reason such as a Nursing Home in an area sufering many deaths. The reality is there is no major social difference between many of these areas and somewhere like the Ystradgynlais area really isnt that much different to places like Ystalyfera, Pontardawe and Clydach to have 3 or 4 times the number of deaths and this is also the case in Morriston. |
Is the correct answer |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:13 - Aug 7 with 2037 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:24 - Aug 6 by longlostjack |
Is the correct answer |
Is the obvious answer at such a small scale. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:22 - Aug 7 with 2022 views | Andy1300 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:11 - Aug 6 by exhmrc1 |
I very much doubt what you say is true as they base it on the Death certificate. What evidence do you have for your comments. You seem a bit blase over the issue. Do you also think that dying of say heart attacks or cancer arent because of those issues as well.
I cannot imagine these would not be the reason for the deaths. It is just the assumption that it is because of poverty although the evidence doesnt support that. |
I have always believed that the way they account for covid deaths to be incorrect.
This appears to now be the case. |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:28 - Aug 7 with 2018 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:11 - Aug 6 by exhmrc1 |
I very much doubt what you say is true as they base it on the Death certificate. What evidence do you have for your comments. You seem a bit blase over the issue. Do you also think that dying of say heart attacks or cancer arent because of those issues as well.
I cannot imagine these would not be the reason for the deaths. It is just the assumption that it is because of poverty although the evidence doesnt support that. |
This is two seperate issues. If it is on the death certificate Covid contributed toward the death.
This refers to the way public health England counts deaths - which is wrong and different to the rest of the UK
You're "evidence" that poverty doesn't contribute is laughable it really is. The only person I personally know who died of Covid lived in a council flat in Clase. By your logic that would prove poverty is a contibutory factor.
The fact that areas of poverty and depravation have higher incidences of Diabetes, Heart Disease, Cancer, more alcohol cconsumption, higher rates of smoking etc are what cause an earlier deaths.
We have nothing like the scale of poverty in Wales that are seen in parts of England. Exactly the same can be said for ethnic diversity. These factors often co-exist - and are a reason for a higher death rate in England.
I don't think the Swansea valley can be used as a comparison to the West Midlands. [Post edited 7 Aug 2020 8:36]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:31 - Aug 7 with 2014 views | onehunglow |
When you think about it,Obesity should be included at least 40% of our country's deaths as it most certainly contributes to death. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:26 - Aug 7 with 1991 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:28 - Aug 7 by Scotia |
This is two seperate issues. If it is on the death certificate Covid contributed toward the death.
This refers to the way public health England counts deaths - which is wrong and different to the rest of the UK
You're "evidence" that poverty doesn't contribute is laughable it really is. The only person I personally know who died of Covid lived in a council flat in Clase. By your logic that would prove poverty is a contibutory factor.
The fact that areas of poverty and depravation have higher incidences of Diabetes, Heart Disease, Cancer, more alcohol cconsumption, higher rates of smoking etc are what cause an earlier deaths.
We have nothing like the scale of poverty in Wales that are seen in parts of England. Exactly the same can be said for ethnic diversity. These factors often co-exist - and are a reason for a higher death rate in England.
I don't think the Swansea valley can be used as a comparison to the West Midlands. [Post edited 7 Aug 2020 8:36]
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If what you say is true then there wouldnt be the kind of disparity there is. Similar areas having hugely different rates of death. One of the richer areas of Swansea having higher rates than the poorer. How do you explain the fact that Mumbles has one of the highest rates in Swansea. It certainly isnt one of the poorer areas. There are other factors and the main one is where there is a nursing home that has had many cases the rates jump. It isnt about poverty as being reported. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:21 - Aug 7 with 1976 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:26 - Aug 7 by exhmrc1 |
If what you say is true then there wouldnt be the kind of disparity there is. Similar areas having hugely different rates of death. One of the richer areas of Swansea having higher rates than the poorer. How do you explain the fact that Mumbles has one of the highest rates in Swansea. It certainly isnt one of the poorer areas. There are other factors and the main one is where there is a nursing home that has had many cases the rates jump. It isnt about poverty as being reported. |
There is no disparity on a UK scale, and that is the scale you need to look at. Swansea is far, far too small for a meaningful comparison.
You've answered your own question - more deaths in an area like Mumbles could be deaths in a nursing home or similar. It could be that there was more virus in Mumbles before lockdown which spread to an older population (who are at far greater risk), don't forget the first conifrmed case in Wales was in Mumbles. In fact I'd bet the population of Mumbles is generally older than the rest of Swansea. Age is by far the biggest issue for covid outcomes, over 50% of deaths are in an age group older than 80.
This over such a small sample is skewing the figures. Over a larger scale this would even out, with occasional exceptions.
Once again a lack of money doesn't mean you are more likely to die from Covid. Obesity, Diabetes, Heart Disease, lung complaints etc does make you more suscepitble. Living in densely populated areas makes your more likely to catch the virus. These conditions are far more prevalant in areas of poverty. They are also more prevalent in some ethnic minorities. They are the factors that increase death rates.
It is quite possible that people have died becasue of the way poverty has impacted their lifestyle that may have survived had they been brought up and lived in a different environment.
Unless you can provide evidence that those conditions aren't seen more frequently in areas of poverty and don't make you more susceptible to covid those factors clearly show that areas of increased levels of poverty will have worse covid outcomes. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:14 - Aug 7 with 1957 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:21 - Aug 7 by Scotia |
There is no disparity on a UK scale, and that is the scale you need to look at. Swansea is far, far too small for a meaningful comparison.
You've answered your own question - more deaths in an area like Mumbles could be deaths in a nursing home or similar. It could be that there was more virus in Mumbles before lockdown which spread to an older population (who are at far greater risk), don't forget the first conifrmed case in Wales was in Mumbles. In fact I'd bet the population of Mumbles is generally older than the rest of Swansea. Age is by far the biggest issue for covid outcomes, over 50% of deaths are in an age group older than 80.
This over such a small sample is skewing the figures. Over a larger scale this would even out, with occasional exceptions.
Once again a lack of money doesn't mean you are more likely to die from Covid. Obesity, Diabetes, Heart Disease, lung complaints etc does make you more suscepitble. Living in densely populated areas makes your more likely to catch the virus. These conditions are far more prevalant in areas of poverty. They are also more prevalent in some ethnic minorities. They are the factors that increase death rates.
It is quite possible that people have died becasue of the way poverty has impacted their lifestyle that may have survived had they been brought up and lived in a different environment.
Unless you can provide evidence that those conditions aren't seen more frequently in areas of poverty and don't make you more susceptible to covid those factors clearly show that areas of increased levels of poverty will have worse covid outcomes. |
Read my pm giving my knowledge. Some of this I wouldnt state on a public forum for obvious reasons. Ystradgynlais and Morriston South are 2 of the highest areas of covid deaths and it isnt poverty related. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:29 - Aug 7 with 1951 views | A_Fans_Dad |
The infection rate is down to population density, be it over a small area (factory, dormitory, family) or large area (city).
Mortality rates are a combination of the infection rate, comorbidities, age and inate immunity.
One thing that poverty tends to increase is poor diet, leading to obesity, diabeties and immune deficiencies. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:31 - Aug 7 with 1950 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:14 - Aug 7 by exhmrc1 |
Read my pm giving my knowledge. Some of this I wouldnt state on a public forum for obvious reasons. Ystradgynlais and Morriston South are 2 of the highest areas of covid deaths and it isnt poverty related. |
I agree people have died in nursing homes. An outbreak in a nursing home skews figures because of the age of the residents. Age is the biggest risk factor - it is outside of this is the link to poverty. Just becasue 15 people have died in Mumbles compared to 3 in Penderry doesn't mean Mumbles is 5 times poorer than Penderry. As I said the person I know who died of covid was early 40's, with significant health issues, his lifestyle contributed to his death. I think he could be alive now if he had been brought up in Mumbles.
I'm not having a go at you but do you realise how insignificant a figure this is on a UK or global scale? There are about 700,000 people living in poverty in the West Midlands alone which is around 100,000 more than Wales, and probably about 10 times more than in Swansea.
For there to be no link to poverty (and ethnicity) there would have to be no link to the other conditions I mentioned, and something 30% of deaths are seen in diabetics. That isn't a coincidence. [Post edited 7 Aug 2020 13:37]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:50 - Aug 7 with 1940 views | onehunglow |
Or brought up in the Hafod/Cwmbwrla/Penlan/Portmead, but with a better lifestyle | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:23 - Aug 7 with 1930 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:50 - Aug 7 by onehunglow |
Or brought up in the Hafod/Cwmbwrla/Penlan/Portmead, but with a better lifestyle |
Yes I agree. It is all about the circumstances. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:42 - Aug 7 with 1928 views | onehunglow |
This weekend will see thouands flock to the coast with cartons of lager and take aways ,cwtch up close,get pissed then fight each other ,maybe even get to a BLM demo or whatever is the latest demo trend .
And we wonder why there are spikes
And we go on about an earlier lockdown that would have also been ignored | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:40 - Aug 7 with 1886 views | onehunglow |
Indeed.
Just wondering how much attention the dinghies full of "refugees" will be paying to it all especially quarantine | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:36 - Aug 7 with 1864 views | exhmrc1 |
950 new cases yesterday highest since June. Must be wrong. Doesnt fit the bill. Compared to 14, 15 and 17 new cases in the last 3 days in Wales. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:07 - Aug 7 with 1852 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:36 - Aug 7 by exhmrc1 |
950 new cases yesterday highest since June. Must be wrong. Doesnt fit the bill. Compared to 14, 15 and 17 new cases in the last 3 days in Wales. |
That isn't what the link is about.
But about 120 of those are not in England. Not only that we are now doing about 30000 more tests a day compared to the start of July, and these are targeted at outbreaks.
Its looking OK really | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:41 - Aug 7 with 1821 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:07 - Aug 7 by Scotia |
That isn't what the link is about.
But about 120 of those are not in England. Not only that we are now doing about 30000 more tests a day compared to the start of July, and these are targeted at outbreaks.
Its looking OK really |
I really dont understand you 830 cases in a day in England. Bringing in restrictions for Preston. Talking about bringing in quarantine for France and you think it is looking OK yet a country that has 15 cases in a day is doing badly. 15x55/3 is 275 which is a third of the English rate and that is after including a small area where most the cases happen. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:41 - Aug 7 with 1807 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:41 - Aug 7 by exhmrc1 |
I really dont understand you 830 cases in a day in England. Bringing in restrictions for Preston. Talking about bringing in quarantine for France and you think it is looking OK yet a country that has 15 cases in a day is doing badly. 15x55/3 is 275 which is a third of the English rate and that is after including a small area where most the cases happen. |
You don't understand?
That doesn't surprise me. France isn't in England, why is quarantine from France an English problem?
That link shows England has plateaued at about case one case in 1900 people. England has been further out of the lock down than us for a month. There are about 20 times more than them than people who live in Wales and some of their cities have more people living in them than we have in the country. We are less than a week out of lock down, still not quite at the same level as them and have one case in 1500 people.
Our cases will increase over the next couple of weeks. So we'll basically be in the same place in a month or so. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:48 - Aug 7 with 1800 views | Andy1300 |
If you go to France on holidays, come back by dinghy, that way, you won’t have to quarantine and get a nice room in a 4 star hotel | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:14 - Aug 7 with 1792 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:41 - Aug 7 by Scotia |
You don't understand?
That doesn't surprise me. France isn't in England, why is quarantine from France an English problem?
That link shows England has plateaued at about case one case in 1900 people. England has been further out of the lock down than us for a month. There are about 20 times more than them than people who live in Wales and some of their cities have more people living in them than we have in the country. We are less than a week out of lock down, still not quite at the same level as them and have one case in 1500 people.
Our cases will increase over the next couple of weeks. So we'll basically be in the same place in a month or so. |
We might end up the same place but there again we might not. With our figures being so much lower coming out the figures might not get so high. Only time well tell. If pubs and gyms do cause major problems then maybe they shouldnt have been reopened until the virus was cleared.
From Monday we are actually further out than England. We are not having to wear masks anywhere other than shops. We can meet up to 30 people outdoors. England has shelved that for now. We are opening bowling alleys. That is on hold in England.
I am not saying we are necessarily right doing these but the fact is England rushed in to open up things and have ended up putting places in lockdown which at present we havent needed to do.
As far as quarantine we now have Spain Belgium and likely France where there has been a reversal. Is that really in the interests of those who have gone there expecting Air Bridges. Do you still think Air Bridges were such a good idea. How would you feel if you were one of those unfortunately affected having been told by the Government that you could come back without the need to quarantine. | | | |
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