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General Election Thread 17:46 - May 22 with 156183 views

This will be the first election that I have no idea who to vote for, will never vote Tory again after the lies during covid where my dad lost his life, don’t trust starmer, would never vote for a bunch of racists like reform , anyone give me a clue?

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General Election Thread on 21:44 - Jul 7 with 2652 views

loftupper

General Election Thread on 12:55 - Jul 7 by SheffieldHoop
Maybe young people are just tired of being told that older generations selling off their cultural inheritance is a good thing when we can all see that it isn't.

Simpler answer could be that Reforms use of the TikTok algorithm worked reasonably well. Obviously not without help from Russian bots

General Election Thread on 23:12 - Jul 7 with 2536 views

colinallcars

General Election Thread on 20:21 - Jul 7 by Sonofpugwash
French elections the biggest stitch-up since the Bayeaux Tapestry.

Wild celebrations in Stalingrad Square in Paris. I didn't know it existed.
I was in Trafalgar Square a while back and saw a bloke sleeping rough.
I gave him a few quid and said it must be tough sleeping in Trafalgar Square.
He said well,if it's good enough for Nelson, it's good enough for me.

General Election Thread on 23:29 - Jul 7 with 2501 views

222gers

General Election Thread on 23:12 - Jul 7 by colinallcars
Wild celebrations in Stalingrad Square in Paris. I didn't know it existed. I was in Trafalgar Square a while back and saw a bloke sleeping rough. I gave him a few quid and said it must be tough sleeping in Trafalgar Square. He said well,if it's good enough for Nelson, it's good enough for me.

Ha,ha …it's an old music hall song.
Seriously, both the French and British electorate have shown a bit of common sense (at last).

General Election Thread on 23:33 - Jul 7 with 2495 views

Gus_iom

General Election Thread on 21:44 - Jul 7 by loftupper
Simpler answer could be that Reforms use of the TikTok algorithm worked reasonably well. Obviously not without help from Russian bots

Or it could be that no-one listens until its too late. The tragedy of brexit was the EU didn't listen to Cameron when he went to them and said 'we have a problem'. Every year more French people vote for a Le Pen - no-one in power asks why? They just condemn. There's a reason why people are voting for Reform.

General Election Thread on 23:54 - Jul 7 with 2436 views

222gers

“Social media” types attack “ MSM” as being biased but the Sunday Times welcomed the Labour victory.
In essence, the polls in the UK and France could herald the beginning
belatedly, of an era of common sense.
Can such things be ?
Hopefully, yes.

General Election Thread on 01:31 - Jul 8 with 2350 views

SydneyRs

General Election Thread on 23:54 - Jul 7 by 222gers
“Social media” types attack “ MSM” as being biased but the Sunday Times welcomed the Labour victory. In essence, the polls in the UK and France could herald the beginning belatedly, of an era of common sense. Can such things be ? Hopefully, yes.

Firstly, Starmer's Labour is not left wing so is more palatable to the right wing press, as was Blair's version back in the day. He's no Corbyn.

The press will eventually go back to the tories, as they did after briefly supporting Blair when he won in 97. They are a bit like glory hunter football fans who change teams depending on who is currently winning.

Labour tactic was very much let the tories destroy themselves which they duly did. The overwhelming feeling this time was they had to go, as they'd been so ridiculously bad in recent years. I actually struggled to find anyone still openly supporting the tories anywhere, not even the usual social media suspects. The election was unique in that sense and the tactical voting that occurred worked very effectively. Probably the most die hard tory (party member) among my facebook friends list even admitted they'd "shot themselves in the foot"

If Labour can get the frankly silly immigration numbers under control then that might pull back a fair chunk of the Reform vote. While they obviously got a lot of support this time, and clearly benefitted from tactical/protest type voting, it is never going to translate to significant numbers of seats. Its exactly the scenario the Lib Dems have always faced under FPTP. Makes for good headlines, but little that will actually make any difference. Nigel will get nice and rich (or richer) and get the airtime he loves though...

General Election Thread on 01:34 - Jul 8 with 2345 views

SydneyRs

General Election Thread on 22:18 - Jul 6 by terryb
Not everyone. I've seen many with a different view regarded as being Stalin or Lennin!

Or Karl Marx

General Election Thread on 01:37 - Jul 8 with 2342 views

SydneyRs

General Election Thread on 11:12 - Jul 7 by Watford_Ranger

I think it’s a bit more than that. They’ve swallowed up what would have been the BNP vote once upon a time and gradually developed a veneer of respectability. A lot of people won’t really know much about them or their local candidate beyond who Farage is but couldn’t vote for ‘woke’ Labour and wanted to give the Tories a kicking. Many probably wouldn’t have voted at all without a Reform candidate. UKIP got 13% of the vote in 2015 with a very clear cause.

Now they’re more organised with the Tories at the lowest of lows and got a bit more and a few seats. There’s this big expectation they’ll go much further next time but I don’t really see it happening. Tories will bounce back a bit. Farage will be 64/65 at the next election and I don’t see them surviving much beyond him. Could be wrong of course.

Agree. Talk of the demise of the tories is overdone. They will sort themselves out eventually and win back a lot of that support.

General Election Thread on 02:20 - Jul 8 with 2325 views

derbyhoop

General Election Thread on 20:24 - Jul 7 by Northernr
I'm not sure this "we won, crush the opposition, ignore everything they said and wanted, humiliate and ridicule and grind them into the dust" versus "we lost, it must be a fix, the whole thing is a stitch up, it's corrupt" is really getting us anywhere.

That's just a rerun of the Brexiteers and Faragist post election views.
Starmer's speech outside no 10 was far more inclusive and conciliatory. Whether he can deliver for ALL is a different matter, TBC.

Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all oneâ€™s lifetime. (Mark Twain) Find me on twitter @derbyhoop

General Election Thread on 09:44 - Jul 8 with 2148 views

hubble

The situation in Europe is far from settled by the coalition of several parties to defeat Le Pen's National Rally in France. There seems to be a simmering discontent that continues to threaten to bubble over, typified by the comments in the following interview with Tony Kroos - which also references Mbappé's intervention in the French election; both weigh into politics from different perspectives.

As Europe moves increasingly towards the right, this febrile situation is not going to go away, but in electing a Labour government in the UK, the issue here will probably settle down (for the time being), whereas in Europe, it could still ignite.

"Toni Kroos said he believes Germany’s influx of migrants was “too uncontrolled” and that the country has changed considerably in the 10 years since he left.

The Germany and Real Madrid star, who returned to his home country for the Euros this summer, said he welcomed migrants but concluded that Germany was not successful in managing mass immigration.

In an interview recorded before his country lost to Spain on Friday, he compared the two countries and agreed with his interviewers that there was a feeling of “loss of control” in Germany.

When pressed, he replied: “I believe that this control over certain issues has simply slipped away a little over the years and there’s a reason for that. In my opinion, the reason is that people have overwhelmed them.”

He said that it was “great” how Germany had greeted migrants with open arms, before adding that “it was just too uncontrolled”.

He added: “I think we didn’t manage it, this basically very positive approach that I support 1000 per cent, because I find that sensational, that people come to us from the outside and then are happy.”

He said he thought the impact of migration was “underestimated”, and was “in the end something too uncontrolled”.

“Clearly when many people come, there is always a percentage who do not do us good, just as there is among Germans,” he said, adding that German attitudes to migration have become divided.

Germany has been split on the topic since Angela Merkel’s decision to allow a million refugees to enter Germany in 2015 with the far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) entering the German Parliament in the aftermath.

Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition passed reforms allowing dual citizenship but the AfD rose to new heights, recently coming second in the European elections.

Kroos’s comments come after his former Real Madrid teammate Kylian Mbappé urged the French to reject “extremists” and vote against Marine Le Pen’s far-Right National Rally in legislative elections. Le Pen hit back at Mbappé for being “too wealthy” to represent French migrants.

Earlier in the interview, before the issue of migration was raised, Kroos said he would be staying in Spain after retiring from Real Madrid, in part because he didn’t feel his home country was safe enough for his daughter.

He said he felt that Germany had become less secure since he left, and was now concerned his child would not come back “unharmed” from a night out alone.

Kroos told the Lanz & Precht podcast: “I think Germany is a great country and I’m happy to be here, but it’s not really the same country that it was 10 years ago when we left.”

The central midfielder said that when his seven-year-old daughter gets older, he would rather she goes out in a Spanish city at 11pm than a German one.

He added that if he moved back to Germany he would be concerned about his daughter coming home from a night out, a feeling that he “wouldn’t have had that 10 years ago”.

Full article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/07/germany-has-been-overwhelmed-b

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General Election Thread on 09:59 - Jul 8 with 2125 views

Watford_Ranger

General Election Thread on 01:37 - Jul 8 by SydneyRs
Agree. Talk of the demise of the tories is overdone. They will sort themselves out eventually and win back a lot of that support.

Never underestimate Brits’ ability to completely forget what state they left the place in. They’ll be back in in ten years to start the cycle again once people have had enough of sensible adults not gutting the country for their own gain.

Saying that, they’ve a real problem simply with demographics. Their base is dying. I don’t think we’ll see anything like the traditional progression of generations becoming more Tory after 50 because today’s 30-45 year-olds are probably those who have been hit hardest by the last decade. They’ve got a chance to start afresh now and if they go right rather than left it’d be foolish and they’re probably bright enough to see that.

General Election Thread on 10:25 - Jul 8 with 2079 views

terryb

General Election Thread on 09:59 - Jul 8 by Watford_Ranger

It seems strange to me Watford, that my generation (and older) are regarded as supporting the Tories. I'm not sugesting that you're wrong though.

It's approaching 60 years ago that a large number of today's 70-90 year olds were manning the barricades in Grosvenor Square or joining CND marches. I would sugest that it was this generation that support for the far left was at it's highest. The Soviet tanks rolling in to Prague had a dramatic effect on those of us that were inclined to the "centre left".

On the other hand, the far right was also very popular at that time with the NF active. Support/hatred for Powell & his "Rivers of Blood" was possibly as close as the Brexit vote!

It should never be underestimated how people's views moderate as they grow older. The fight to change the world has been lost & the future of their children/grandchildren is at the forefront.

It is my view (not that this is worth anything) that Labour & the Tories have moved far to the right in my lifetime. This has left the Liberals (the party I supported) being more alligned to the left than Labour is, without changing from the centre.

General Election Thread on 12:09 - Jul 8 with 1971 views

Watford_Ranger

General Election Thread on 10:25 - Jul 8 by terryb

I’m not disputing a lot of older people don’t support the Tories but it’s just a fact their voter base is skewed towards older voters, particularly retired voters while Labour do pretty well up to about 45-50 then tail off. Greens heavily skewed the other way and Libs are fairly consistent across age groups.

Loads of other ways to analyse it of course. Wealth, class, gender etc. but speaking very broadly the Tory vote has relied on older voters as well as the relatively low turnout of younger voters. If tomorrow’s older people have a lower living standard than their parents had it seems logical they’ll be less inclined to vote Tory.

General Election Thread on 12:31 - Jul 8 with 1921 views

BrianMcCarthy

General Election Thread on 10:25 - Jul 8 by terryb

Good post, Terry.

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General Election Thread on 13:15 - Jul 8 with 1826 views

loftus77

General Election Thread on 12:09 - Jul 8 by Watford_Ranger

Yep, its really interesting this - the demography of it all more important than the democracy.

I guess its too early for detailed data but I do wonder whether, if voting had been limited to the working population only (18-65s only), the Conservatives would literally have been wiped out in Parliament with 0 (zero) seats. Would be no surprise at all - as others have said, a real demographic time-bomb.

General Election Thread on 13:25 - Jul 8 with 1790 views

R_from_afar

General Election Thread on 12:09 - Jul 8 by Watford_Ranger

Prior to this last General Election, the average age of a Tory voter was 62. Not sure if that has changed.

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General Election Thread on 13:29 - Jul 8 with 1773 views

PlanetHonneywood

General Election Thread on 01:37 - Jul 8 by SydneyRs
Agree. Talk of the demise of the tories is overdone. They will sort themselves out eventually and win back a lot of that support.

Bang on fella, of course they will, and of course they must!

As late as three years ago, Labour got their backsides handed to them by the monkey hangers of Hartlepool. The party was in a total and utter mess and frankly, to think of such a turnaround was unthinkable!

SKS as I said back then, was the most important person in UK politics because without an effective opposition, the pressure on the government is weakened. The Tories took their foot off the pedal and everyone and thing for granted. Accordingly, with Labour now having a huge majority, there needs to be effective opposition in play.

However, the problem for the Tories is not just who will lead them after the disasters post-Cameron, but what way will they swing? Will they heed what seems to be the case: people don't want it too left or too right or, will they suck up to Farage and try and out flank the right?

Now, one of the most important people in UK politics, will be which person the Tories choose to lead them. Unfortunately, the likes of Patel and Braverman (sp) may well come to the fore and if they do, then it will be a rocky road that SKS has to be aware of.

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General Election Thread on 16:13 - Jul 8 with 1592 views

CamberleyR

General Election Thread on 12:28 - Jul 7 by hubble

Sydders, me old mucker, it's all very well being partisan, but at least try to use a modicum of objectivity.

"Huge media coverage despite similar seat numbers to the greens and less than Sinn Fein who don't even sit on theirs."

Reform got 4,072,947 votes.

The Greens got 1,931,880 votes. Sinn Fein got 210,891 votes.

And of course, Reform got over half a million more than the Lib Dems. That's not a fact that you can sweep under the carpet with a haughty sniff about them being "just the old BNP" with a revamp. The metropolitan elite managed to completely miss the mood of the people prior to the Brexit vote, and then were aghast when it happened. I appreciate that you find this reality deeply unsavoury, but nevertheless, there is huge support for Reform, not least, interestingly, amongst young people. It's not just down to a bunch of old racists, what it reflects (IMHO), is how disenfranchised ordinary people feel, especially outside of the metropolitan media bubbles.

I am not posting this in support of Reform, but in support of looking at the whole picture, without pretending that it is not so.

Also worth noting that although the Greens got fewer than half the votes that Reform did, they have 4 MPs to Reform's 5. And of course the Lib Dems, with over half a million fewer votes than Reform, have 71 MPs.

The Lib Dems are smart and know how to play FPTP. They know that there are hundreds of seats where they come a distant third or worse and don't have much of a presence in local government. They run a token campaign here.

They were strong seconds to the Tories in lots of constituencies, particularly in the south west, south and the home counties in 2019. They also usually have strong local government bases here. They ruthlessly targeted those constituencies this time. If you look at the seats they won this time from the Tories they were all in these regions.

My old stomping ground in Camberley/Surrey Heath is a case in point. They have steadily been building a base on the local council and in 2023 actually took the council with 24 of the 35 seats. Surrey Heath council had been very solidly nothing but Tory since it's creation 50 years ago.

The Lib Dem candidate in 2019 was second to Gove and stood again this time winning by five and a half thousand votes. Again, Surrey Heath and it's predecessor constituencies had been only Tory.

[Post edited 8 Jul 16:22]

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General Election Thread on 23:01 - Jul 8 with 1382 views

StJude82

Nice to see Nugee being passed over for the AG job. What comes around goes around.

General Election Thread on 03:04 - Jul 9 with 1302 views

SydneyRs

General Election Thread on 13:25 - Jul 8 by R_from_afar
Prior to this last General Election, the average age of a Tory voter was 62. Not sure if that has changed.

Surely an ageing population potentially benefits them then? A 62 year old these days has a good chance of being around for another 25-30 years.

General Election Thread on 09:42 - Jul 9 with 1095 views

Juzzie

Although people's alliances tends to shift from left to right as they get older, maybe this crop of OAP Tory's will die out leaving the next lot of OAP's more central/central-left leaning?

I guess we'll know in the next 10-15 years.

I'm just waiting for the results from last week to come out to see the turnout of the 18-25 age group.

General Election Thread on 10:53 - Jul 9 with 969 views

nadera78

General Election Thread on 10:25 - Jul 8 by terryb

It's interesting to me that you think the Liberals are to the left of Labour, given that the only time they've been in government in the past 100 years they actively participated in the wholesale destruction of the social and civic infrastructure that held this country together and paved the way to all of us being financially and socially poorer.

[Post edited 9 Jul 10:54]

General Election Thread on 14:33 - Jul 9 with 782 views

QPR_John

Well they are getting their excuses in early. Expect an interesting budget.

General Election Thread on 15:08 - Jul 9 with 725 views

Wilkinswatercarrier

General Election Thread on 10:53 - Jul 9 by nadera78
It's interesting to me that you think the Liberals are to the left of Labour, given that the only time they've been in government in the past 100 years they actively participated in the wholesale destruction of the social and civic infrastructure that held this country together and paved the way to all of us being financially and socially poorer. [Post edited 9 Jul 10:54]

Not sure that is entirely accurate. Covid and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine is what has really did most people in, oh plus Liz Truss!

I don't think the Lib Dems can be held responsible for that.

General Election Thread on 16:24 - Jul 9 with 657 views

CamberleyR

General Election Thread on 15:08 - Jul 9 by Wilkinswatercarrier
Not sure that is entirely accurate. Covid and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine is what has really did most people in, oh plus Liz Truss! I don't think the Lib Dems can be held responsible for that.

You don't remember Cameron & Osborne's political choice of austerity then in the first years of the coalition government?

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