| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. 07:28 - Jun 28 with 38604 views | BigDaveMyCock |
Only speculation but a few things have happened, in particular in the Conservative Party, that makes me think that the appetite for Brexit has reduced significantly.
Cameron's decision not to invoke Article 50 immediately has thrown the leavers into turmoil as it is now down to one of them to do the ultimate. It will now be the responsibility of the new PM to invoke Articld 50, a move nobody intended, or wants, to make. IDS and Gove all noted by their absence and Boris looked pale as milk yesterday with the realisation that Merkel et al have said a firm no to negotiations prior to invoking Article 50. This means the future PM will have nothing to 'sell' to the country or the markets prior to invoking Article 50. They will not be able to have one piece of legislation or even negotiation in their hands re 50% of UK trade. It would be like pushing an economic nuclear bomb if a new PM was to invoke Article 50 in such a situation as market confidence would collapse and multinationals up sticks. This will be an even more difficult act to undertake if the UK is in recession, which even the leavers acknowledge may very well be the case. Indeed, Boris has come out attempting to ease fears by stating that the UK remains very much at the heart of Europe and nothing much will change with the ultimate irony being that if we are to negotiate access to the single market then the terms of that negotiations will be very much like what we have already. Merkel et al permitting.
There are now rumours that top people in the Tories including some leavers and whips are sufficiently spooked enough to not back Boris or another leave candidate.
Could be wrong but expect stalemate. EU will call UK bluff and UK will be unwilling to do the ultimate deed because they will not be able to get the deals they so desperately want. Fascinating times.
[Post edited 28 Jun 2016 7:35]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 21:31 - Jul 6 with 2343 views | 442Dale |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 21:20 - Jul 6 by BigDaveMyCock |
One of the biggest criticisms to come out of the Chilcot Inquiry today was that the Blair and Bush administrations didn't have a plan. A concrete strategy for replacing the institutions they were doing away with. There was an overriding presumption that by getting rid of something they, rightly or wrongly, didn't like then everything would fall into place thereafter. We have, rightly or wrongly, voted to replace the EU as a sizeable institution that structures a very large percentage of both direct and, as you rightly point out, indirect trade. The scary thing is that we have no concrete plan as to what will replace this. Instead, just presumptions. Presumptions that an apparent new found freedom will lead to favourable trade agreements (some of them utterly fanciful). The warnings have been provided by the majority UK and foreign business leaders, politicians and economists. I hope to god they're wrong. [Post edited 6 Jul 2016 21:28]
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Without wanting to get embroiled in the specifics of this particular subject, you make a bloody good point. I spend so much of my life bemoaning the lack of a plan by individuals/organisations etc, that you actually wonder why it isn't recognised that with effective planning most things are so much easier to deal with; "If this happens, we will do this. Before that happens, this is in place."
It exists everywhere from a busy pub all the way to a football club and when doing the weekly shop.
Oh, and also the kits chosen for a European Championship semi-final. |  |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:26 - Jul 6 with 2262 views | R17ALE |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 20:40 - Jul 6 by anotherbiffo |
You kind of sum things up when you resort to cheap jibes about a town which is all of ... 6 miles distant to Rochdale. What chance diversity and harmony with the likes of you?
Yes, I've seen the "green and pleasant land", but I've also seen the fracking, which is illegal in France and most EU countries. The first thing Britain will do post Europe is renege on environmental and humanitarian agreements.
In reply to other posters, I'm not bitter and twisted - just furious and bemused. I accept the result of the referendum, because there is no going back, but it has to be one of the most, if not the most ludicrous and suicidal national ballots in the long history of modern humanity. Every SERIOUS journal, institution and organisation, in every field of endeavour on the face of this planet has shown reservations about brexit.
And as far as world trade goes, know that at least 40 percent of British trade to the world OUTSIDE of Europe passes through the EU (the so-called 'Rotterdam effect', whereby we profit unfettered from the immense European container infra-structure). Never mind. In 10 years, we may have sorted a deal out (if we manage to borrow some trade negotiators).
You couldn't make this sh+t up!. |
I'm very harmonious Ill have you know. You should see me playing my organ of a night to see my harmonious nature!
I just don't get your doom and gloom.
And it wasn't a cheap jibe. It's true. It's not true in Rochdale where I see the delights of rural Littleborough* and its lake, plus traditional villages like Norden and Shawclough.
But I'll admit to you I'm a proud patriot who would happily bask on a Union Jack beach towel anywhere abroad.
I accept you're not bitter and twisted. I just think you're unhappy for the wrong reasons. Half of me wants to give you a big hug and tell you that you'll be ok. Because you will be.
*Admittedly there are some very ropey Dale fans in the big smoke!! |  |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:34 - Jul 6 with 2244 views | mingthemerciless |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 21:20 - Jul 6 by BigDaveMyCock |
One of the biggest criticisms to come out of the Chilcot Inquiry today was that the Blair and Bush administrations didn't have a plan. A concrete strategy for replacing the institutions they were doing away with. There was an overriding presumption that by getting rid of something they, rightly or wrongly, didn't like then everything would fall into place thereafter. We have, rightly or wrongly, voted to replace the EU as a sizeable institution that structures a very large percentage of both direct and, as you rightly point out, indirect trade. The scary thing is that we have no concrete plan as to what will replace this. Instead, just presumptions. Presumptions that an apparent new found freedom will lead to favourable trade agreements (some of them utterly fanciful). The warnings have been provided by the majority UK and foreign business leaders, politicians and economists. I hope to god they're wrong. [Post edited 6 Jul 2016 21:28]
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Blair was just sucking up to Bush and trying to play the great I am. It was obvious to anyone who had eyes to see that it was going to be a major foreign policy disaster. That was my view before it all kicked off. It could only end in tears and it did.
Of course you never meet anyone who was in favour of the invasion now. A bit like you never meet anyone who voted for Mrs Thatcher these days. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:35 - Jul 6 with 2244 views | roccydaleian |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:26 - Jul 6 by R17ALE |
I'm very harmonious Ill have you know. You should see me playing my organ of a night to see my harmonious nature!
I just don't get your doom and gloom.
And it wasn't a cheap jibe. It's true. It's not true in Rochdale where I see the delights of rural Littleborough* and its lake, plus traditional villages like Norden and Shawclough.
But I'll admit to you I'm a proud patriot who would happily bask on a Union Jack beach towel anywhere abroad.
I accept you're not bitter and twisted. I just think you're unhappy for the wrong reasons. Half of me wants to give you a big hug and tell you that you'll be ok. Because you will be.
*Admittedly there are some very ropey Dale fans in the big smoke!! |
It is the big smoke tonight, the Italian (old Sun Hotel) is on fire. |  | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:36 - Jul 6 with 2242 views | TTNYear |
I'd say the issue that has been highlighted from the last two weeks is how sh1te our modern day politicians are, on all sides.
Thatcher would have had a plan.
I'll just leave that there if you don't mind. |  |
| Anti-cliquism is the last refuge of the messageboard scoundrel - Copyright Dorset Dale productions |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:37 - Jul 6 with 2239 views | mingthemerciless |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:35 - Jul 6 by roccydaleian |
It is the big smoke tonight, the Italian (old Sun Hotel) is on fire. |
Mm, I'd better not be too cynical. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:38 - Jul 6 with 2236 views | TVOS1907 |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:35 - Jul 6 by roccydaleian |
It is the big smoke tonight, the Italian (old Sun Hotel) is on fire. |
I thought you were stood outside. |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 23:05 - Jul 6 with 2197 views | 49thseason |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 20:40 - Jul 6 by anotherbiffo |
You kind of sum things up when you resort to cheap jibes about a town which is all of ... 6 miles distant to Rochdale. What chance diversity and harmony with the likes of you?
Yes, I've seen the "green and pleasant land", but I've also seen the fracking, which is illegal in France and most EU countries. The first thing Britain will do post Europe is renege on environmental and humanitarian agreements.
In reply to other posters, I'm not bitter and twisted - just furious and bemused. I accept the result of the referendum, because there is no going back, but it has to be one of the most, if not the most ludicrous and suicidal national ballots in the long history of modern humanity. Every SERIOUS journal, institution and organisation, in every field of endeavour on the face of this planet has shown reservations about brexit.
And as far as world trade goes, know that at least 40 percent of British trade to the world OUTSIDE of Europe passes through the EU (the so-called 'Rotterdam effect', whereby we profit unfettered from the immense European container infra-structure). Never mind. In 10 years, we may have sorted a deal out (if we manage to borrow some trade negotiators).
You couldn't make this sh+t up!. |
I'm not sure the Rotterdam effect has any bearing on the cost of shipping to other parts of the globe outside the EU as no EU tariffs will be levied on goods that are not landed for consumption in the EU. We will continue loading our products at Rotterdam bound for the rest of the world for whatever the current costs are if that is the preferred method of those doing the shipping.
You might also want to consider that as our trade with the EU is falling and has been for the whole of this century, the ability to ship UK goods to other parts of the world has been held back by EU protectionist policies (tariffs) and yet we still export more to non-EU than to EU and the non-EU element is continuing to grow, especially for Services. I presume our trade with Europe will continue to fall as long as the Euro remains the EU currency and the EU economy generally remains in decline because of the Euro.
I note your dismay at the possibility of the Government reneging on environmental agreements , quoting Fraccing. you are possibly unaware that we have been using this technique to stimulate onshore and offshore wells in the UK for over 60 years without problems. and that there are currently several new fraccing initiatives which do not require water, these include Nitrogen injection and plasma pulse technology. Strange as it might seem the oil and gas industry is spending $100 billion a year to develop better fraccing methods. They are not quite the "enemy" that many people seem to want them to be.
By the way, when I worked in IT there used to be a mantra that "no one ever got sacked for buying IBM gear" - I suspect the same is true in many walks of life, in that no one ever gets sacked for supporting the Government, especially economists and your serious journals etc. that often rely on Government for their existence. You wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of HMG if you had touted Brexit (and won) knowing that the Government had 4 years left to get its own back by refusing you interviews and missing you off the list for contracts etc. |  | | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 23:24 - Jul 6 with 2188 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:36 - Jul 6 by TTNYear |
I'd say the issue that has been highlighted from the last two weeks is how sh1te our modern day politicians are, on all sides.
Thatcher would have had a plan.
I'll just leave that there if you don't mind. |
Ah Maggie, the darling of the anti-EUers. The same Maggie who signed up to the Single European Act and one of her last acts as PM was to agree to the UKs entry into the exchange rate mechanism. The genius of Maggie over Europe was to say one thing and do exactly the opposite. She tickled our bellies with stoic nationalist rhetoric, and us English love nothing more than that don't we, as Farage has worked out with staggering success. The reality though was very different. Maggie oversaw greater European integration not less.
As a nation we get the politicians we deserve. [Post edited 6 Jul 2016 23:44]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 06:24 - Jul 7 with 2136 views | 1mark1 |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:36 - Jul 6 by TTNYear |
I'd say the issue that has been highlighted from the last two weeks is how sh1te our modern day politicians are, on all sides.
Thatcher would have had a plan.
I'll just leave that there if you don't mind. |
Going off her actual actions in power, Her plan would have been to stay in, as she had already taken us into greater EU collaboration with at least one or more treaties, that I can't remember the names of. However had there been a chance of a out vote, she would not have held a referendum, that would have been her plan. |  |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 06:26 - Jul 7 with 2135 views | 1mark1 |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 23:24 - Jul 6 by BigDaveMyCock |
Ah Maggie, the darling of the anti-EUers. The same Maggie who signed up to the Single European Act and one of her last acts as PM was to agree to the UKs entry into the exchange rate mechanism. The genius of Maggie over Europe was to say one thing and do exactly the opposite. She tickled our bellies with stoic nationalist rhetoric, and us English love nothing more than that don't we, as Farage has worked out with staggering success. The reality though was very different. Maggie oversaw greater European integration not less.
As a nation we get the politicians we deserve. [Post edited 6 Jul 2016 23:44]
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Absolutely. | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:52 - Jul 7 with 2099 views | TTNYear |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 23:24 - Jul 6 by BigDaveMyCock |
Ah Maggie, the darling of the anti-EUers. The same Maggie who signed up to the Single European Act and one of her last acts as PM was to agree to the UKs entry into the exchange rate mechanism. The genius of Maggie over Europe was to say one thing and do exactly the opposite. She tickled our bellies with stoic nationalist rhetoric, and us English love nothing more than that don't we, as Farage has worked out with staggering success. The reality though was very different. Maggie oversaw greater European integration not less.
As a nation we get the politicians we deserve. [Post edited 6 Jul 2016 23:44]
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The point I was making BDMC is that we have weak politicians. Which is summed up rather nicely by your final sentence. I'm aware of Thatchers pro European stance and nationalist rhetoric, but the succession of weak and feeble management of the country since then has led to the situation we are in now.. And this isn't a red versus blue argument.
Weak leaders, making bad decisions, with poor policies for the masses is why we are here now.
So what do we do, bleat and moan, or try to fashion a future that might just work?
Like I've said before half full or half empty? | |
| Anti-cliquism is the last refuge of the messageboard scoundrel - Copyright Dorset Dale productions |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:53 - Jul 7 with 2098 views | anotherbiffo |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 23:05 - Jul 6 by 49thseason |
I'm not sure the Rotterdam effect has any bearing on the cost of shipping to other parts of the globe outside the EU as no EU tariffs will be levied on goods that are not landed for consumption in the EU. We will continue loading our products at Rotterdam bound for the rest of the world for whatever the current costs are if that is the preferred method of those doing the shipping.
You might also want to consider that as our trade with the EU is falling and has been for the whole of this century, the ability to ship UK goods to other parts of the world has been held back by EU protectionist policies (tariffs) and yet we still export more to non-EU than to EU and the non-EU element is continuing to grow, especially for Services. I presume our trade with Europe will continue to fall as long as the Euro remains the EU currency and the EU economy generally remains in decline because of the Euro.
I note your dismay at the possibility of the Government reneging on environmental agreements , quoting Fraccing. you are possibly unaware that we have been using this technique to stimulate onshore and offshore wells in the UK for over 60 years without problems. and that there are currently several new fraccing initiatives which do not require water, these include Nitrogen injection and plasma pulse technology. Strange as it might seem the oil and gas industry is spending $100 billion a year to develop better fraccing methods. They are not quite the "enemy" that many people seem to want them to be.
By the way, when I worked in IT there used to be a mantra that "no one ever got sacked for buying IBM gear" - I suspect the same is true in many walks of life, in that no one ever gets sacked for supporting the Government, especially economists and your serious journals etc. that often rely on Government for their existence. You wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of HMG if you had touted Brexit (and won) knowing that the Government had 4 years left to get its own back by refusing you interviews and missing you off the list for contracts etc. |
Points well made.
Yes, goods transiting through the EU receive special treatment so no likely change from that point of view, which begs the question 'why fix something if it's not broke?'
Some way down the line we will likely join the EEA in a triumphant blaze of pro-British rhetoric. If this is the case, we should just remember that we would be negotiating our way back into Europe under slightly less advantageous terms than when we left.
Fracking is controversial, I accept that. The point I made was that our own government doesn't necessarily represent our best interests.
I agree that the British press would have reason to toe the HMG line. However, academia the world over has also been quick to condemn brexit.
We are where we are, I accept that. It's way too soon to draw any conclusions as to where we'll be in 5 years. This is where my concern lies. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 08:02 - Jul 7 with 2091 views | anotherbiffo |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 22:26 - Jul 6 by R17ALE |
I'm very harmonious Ill have you know. You should see me playing my organ of a night to see my harmonious nature!
I just don't get your doom and gloom.
And it wasn't a cheap jibe. It's true. It's not true in Rochdale where I see the delights of rural Littleborough* and its lake, plus traditional villages like Norden and Shawclough.
But I'll admit to you I'm a proud patriot who would happily bask on a Union Jack beach towel anywhere abroad.
I accept you're not bitter and twisted. I just think you're unhappy for the wrong reasons. Half of me wants to give you a big hug and tell you that you'll be ok. Because you will be.
*Admittedly there are some very ropey Dale fans in the big smoke!! |
The view from Pots and Pans on a sunny morning when there's mist in the valleys is the equal to anything Rochdale can offer!
Thanks for the offer of a hug and reassurance - gladly accepted (is this the brexit 'plan B'?). | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 09:06 - Jul 7 with 2040 views | mingthemerciless |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:52 - Jul 7 by TTNYear |
The point I was making BDMC is that we have weak politicians. Which is summed up rather nicely by your final sentence. I'm aware of Thatchers pro European stance and nationalist rhetoric, but the succession of weak and feeble management of the country since then has led to the situation we are in now.. And this isn't a red versus blue argument.
Weak leaders, making bad decisions, with poor policies for the masses is why we are here now.
So what do we do, bleat and moan, or try to fashion a future that might just work?
Like I've said before half full or half empty? |
As an engineer I'd say they made the glass the wrong size. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 09:23 - Jul 7 with 2028 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:52 - Jul 7 by TTNYear |
The point I was making BDMC is that we have weak politicians. Which is summed up rather nicely by your final sentence. I'm aware of Thatchers pro European stance and nationalist rhetoric, but the succession of weak and feeble management of the country since then has led to the situation we are in now.. And this isn't a red versus blue argument.
Weak leaders, making bad decisions, with poor policies for the masses is why we are here now.
So what do we do, bleat and moan, or try to fashion a future that might just work?
Like I've said before half full or half empty? |
Never said it was a red or blue thing. "Bleating and moaning"? What's bleating about suggesting caution? What's moaning about suggesting that we do not invoke Art. 50 until we have a solid institutional plan that accounts for two eventualities. The first having relatively good access to the single market and the second that, God forbid, we do not. Sounds infinitely fookin sensible to me and not bleating and moaning.
If I could pick you up on your comment of trying to fashion a future that "that might just work". No, if there is one thing we should learn from yesterday, and we should learn from history, is that you don't undertake institutional change without a solid plan as to what replaces it. Leave the EU and then fashion our future? In the words of Maggie 'no,no and no'.
Before we leave the EU we should see what is on the table. What are the terms of these other agreements we have negotiated? Referendum or no refendum.
[Post edited 7 Jul 2016 9:48]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:06 - Jul 7 with 1968 views | D_Alien |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 08:02 - Jul 7 by anotherbiffo |
The view from Pots and Pans on a sunny morning when there's mist in the valleys is the equal to anything Rochdale can offer!
Thanks for the offer of a hug and reassurance - gladly accepted (is this the brexit 'plan B'?). |
Pots and Pans is a decent hike, especially if followed by a pint of Greenfield bitter in t' Clarence.
On holiday at t' minute, so leaving politics to others.
R17ale & TTNYear are doing a good job!
[Post edited 7 Jul 2016 11:07]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:37 - Jul 7 with 1944 views | anotherbiffo |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:06 - Jul 7 by D_Alien |
Pots and Pans is a decent hike, especially if followed by a pint of Greenfield bitter in t' Clarence.
On holiday at t' minute, so leaving politics to others.
R17ale & TTNYear are doing a good job!
[Post edited 7 Jul 2016 11:07]
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Indeed it is.
Enjoy your holiday, D.Alien. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:23 - Jul 7 with 1895 views | mingthemerciless |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:43 - Jul 7 by DaleiLama |
You disappeared as fast as a post-Brexit politician!
Hope the exchange rate isn't hitting you too hard!  |
I was looking at the Euro exchange rate today. Boo Hoo ! | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:32 - Jul 7 with 1881 views | DaleiLama |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:23 - Jul 7 by mingthemerciless |
I was looking at the Euro exchange rate today. Boo Hoo ! |
Euro tourist rate almost parity now.
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:43 - Jul 7 with 1858 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:06 - Jul 7 by D_Alien |
Pots and Pans is a decent hike, especially if followed by a pint of Greenfield bitter in t' Clarence.
On holiday at t' minute, so leaving politics to others.
R17ale & TTNYear are doing a good job!
[Post edited 7 Jul 2016 11:07]
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A fantastic job. We've so far had the invoking of Blake's Jerusalem and the claim that all leaders since Maggie have been a bit w@nk. I really don't know what I'm worried about. [Post edited 7 Jul 2016 12:45]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 17:39 - Jul 7 with 1717 views | judd |
Could we see a Great Breturn? |  |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:14 - Jul 7 with 1692 views | TalkingSutty |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 21:31 - Jul 6 by 442Dale |
Without wanting to get embroiled in the specifics of this particular subject, you make a bloody good point. I spend so much of my life bemoaning the lack of a plan by individuals/organisations etc, that you actually wonder why it isn't recognised that with effective planning most things are so much easier to deal with; "If this happens, we will do this. Before that happens, this is in place."
It exists everywhere from a busy pub all the way to a football club and when doing the weekly shop.
Oh, and also the kits chosen for a European Championship semi-final. |
Exactly, it's just plain commonsense. I love a good plan, I plan everything down to the last minute. What time I arrive, what we will be eating , how to cover the worst case scenario etc. The best way of getting to the River Trent in order to avoid the morning traffic ( This morning ).I even drive myself mad with it, Mrs TS is used to it by now. I don't do late, never have and sleep is a waste of your life.
So why can't these politicians do that? The polls weren't that far out, they predicted it might be close. Why didn't Cameron, etc, etc, realise that there was nearly a 50% chance of us exiting and make a contingency plan? It's their job and they get well paid for covering these eventualities. |  | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 17:08 - Jul 11 with 1413 views | BigDaveMyCock |
We've now got a prime minister who voted remain replacing a prime minister who resigned because he voted remain despite us having voted for the one who is resigning and not for the one who is taking over. Meanwhile, all the Leave 'leaders' have taken their lead from the Captain of Concordia whose strategy, and general moral make-up, can be neatly summarised in the phrase 'fook that, I'm off'.
You couldn't write it. [Post edited 11 Jul 2016 17:10]
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