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Only speculation but a few things have happened, in particular in the Conservative Party, that makes me think that the appetite for Brexit has reduced significantly.
Cameron's decision not to invoke Article 50 immediately has thrown the leavers into turmoil as it is now down to one of them to do the ultimate. It will now be the responsibility of the new PM to invoke Articld 50, a move nobody intended, or wants, to make. IDS and Gove all noted by their absence and Boris looked pale as milk yesterday with the realisation that Merkel et al have said a firm no to negotiations prior to invoking Article 50. This means the future PM will have nothing to 'sell' to the country or the markets prior to invoking Article 50. They will not be able to have one piece of legislation or even negotiation in their hands re 50% of UK trade. It would be like pushing an economic nuclear bomb if a new PM was to invoke Article 50 in such a situation as market confidence would collapse and multinationals up sticks. This will be an even more difficult act to undertake if the UK is in recession, which even the leavers acknowledge may very well be the case. Indeed, Boris has come out attempting to ease fears by stating that the UK remains very much at the heart of Europe and nothing much will change with the ultimate irony being that if we are to negotiate access to the single market then the terms of that negotiations will be very much like what we have already. Merkel et al permitting.
There are now rumours that top people in the Tories including some leavers and whips are sufficiently spooked enough to not back Boris or another leave candidate.
Could be wrong but expect stalemate. EU will call UK bluff and UK will be unwilling to do the ultimate deed because they will not be able to get the deals they so desperately want. Fascinating times.
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:52 - Jun 29 by BigDaveMyCock
You've had an issue with not just me but also 1 Mark 1 and Dom.
Do you ever consider, even for just a second, that it may just be you?
The issue I have with you, BDMC, is that you see yourself as some kind of representative of those who simply don't need it - let people speak for themselves. It demeans them otherwise.
I'm no angel, that's pretty clear, but the vast majority of people who frequent this messageboard seem to get what I'm about.
Back to the topic - just been watching Channel 4 News, and once again the reporting from Brussels was utterly biased, with a completely unfounded assumption that we have to kow-tow to the unelected commissioners. We don't. This whole argument started when I suggested Jean-Claude Juncker has no right to demand we invoke article 50 immediately. The message the electorate sent to our politicians was: let's stand up for ourselves instead of having to put up with the nonsense that the EU has become. It's the usual Establishment response from the BBC, Channel 4 and others that's giving the impression of crisis which is putting the wind up so many people.
A typical example is this business about the single market. The US, for instance, isn't part of the single market but conducts trillions of dollars worth of business with countries in the EU every year. Many other countries trade very happily from outside the single market. We DON'T have to be part of it to succeed as a trading nation, therefore we DON'T have to accept free movement of peoples.
Today, the markets have rallied further, and even if they didn't it's only because in their financial bubble they don't like uncertainty. I'm afraid we'll have to live with uncertainty for a while yet, but that's no reason to panic, or act in haste.
Currently on a trip to Canada and the big O (as in Obama) here spouting off about Brexit. All he focuses on is trade without mentioning the free movement of people...somethng the US would never accept.
They have NAFTA, a free trade deal with Canada and Mexico which is anything but Free trade and of course the thought of Mexicans being able to enter the us uncontrolled would never be considered. Canada just struck a deal with Mexico for visa free travel and US already worrying about mexicans now using the Canadian border to (illegally) enter the US. The Trump wall is going to be a long one.
As Dalian says we hold all the cards on when we give notice of leaving....and arent those mandarins in Brussells pis**d off about that. To think all 28 countries agrred to that provision as well. Sums up everything you need to know about the EU.
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:15 - Jun 30 with 3352 views
I don't take any notice of the stock markets, it's just a casino. It's the trade figures that will be more revealing.
It makes me smile that the people who couldn't wait to get out of the EU don't appear to be in all that much of a rush all of a sudden. What's that all about then ?
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:37 - Jun 30 with 3337 views
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:15 - Jun 30 by mingthemerciless
I don't take any notice of the stock markets, it's just a casino. It's the trade figures that will be more revealing.
It makes me smile that the people who couldn't wait to get out of the EU don't appear to be in all that much of a rush all of a sudden. What's that all about then ?
I think that many who voted out are regretting that decision, they were lied to and have now realised as much.
Certainly the ones I have spoken to personally feel that way, especially about borders and immigration, and the funding of the NHS.
If there were another vote today the remain side would win and quite comfortably so in my opinion, much of the blame can be laid at the remain side also for the outrageous scaremongering that went on....
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:37 - Jun 30 by MoonyDale
I think that many who voted out are regretting that decision, they were lied to and have now realised as much.
Certainly the ones I have spoken to personally feel that way, especially about borders and immigration, and the funding of the NHS.
If there were another vote today the remain side would win and quite comfortably so in my opinion, much of the blame can be laid at the remain side also for the outrageous scaremongering that went on....
Maybe they are a little regretful right now because the division and strife feel pretty horrible but I think their fears may be assuaged once the dust settles and they see that life carries on pretty much as normal . Now the decision is made I think we need to give independence a chance. Article 50 should not be triggered immediately as emotions are still running high which makes this a bad time to make important decisions. Its definitely a case of keep calm and carry on. I've got a feeling that future generations will thank us for what we have done. It could even be that there will come a day when the young people who voted last week will think "Perhaps Granddad and Grandma were right after all".
Edgar Allan's Crow
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 13:15 - Jun 30 with 3208 views
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 13:15 - Jun 30 by EllGazzell
And Bouncy Castle Boris has ruled himself out of the leadership battle, you couldn't make this sh1t up, what an almighty cock up this has been.....Cameron does a runner because he didn't want to be seen as the guy who took us out and the guy who screamed the loudest to leave hasn't the balls or the brain cells to do the job.
Now we have May and Gove at the top of a very small pile, oh and that Crabb guy who thinks being gay can be fixed because it's an illness.
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 13:24 - Jun 30 by MoonyDale
And Bouncy Castle Boris has ruled himself out of the leadership battle, you couldn't make this sh1t up, what an almighty cock up this has been.....Cameron does a runner because he didn't want to be seen as the guy who took us out and the guy who screamed the loudest to leave hasn't the balls or the brain cells to do the job.
Now we have May and Gove at the top of a very small pile, oh and that Crabb guy who thinks being gay can be fixed because it's an illness.
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 13:09 - Jun 30 by wimborne_dale
Maybe they are a little regretful right now because the division and strife feel pretty horrible but I think their fears may be assuaged once the dust settles and they see that life carries on pretty much as normal . Now the decision is made I think we need to give independence a chance. Article 50 should not be triggered immediately as emotions are still running high which makes this a bad time to make important decisions. Its definitely a case of keep calm and carry on. I've got a feeling that future generations will thank us for what we have done. It could even be that there will come a day when the young people who voted last week will think "Perhaps Granddad and Grandma were right after all".
Less than a quarter of young people eligible to vote actually voted. So they can't blame grandma and grandad.
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 13:49 - Jun 30 with 3153 views
That's my thinking Moonydale. Very worrying times ahead. This could turn really nasty. The guy who used Brexit and the more gullible amongst the electorate as a stepping stone to the Tory party leadership has just cashed in his chips. He's finished as a player now. Teresa May should walk this contest.
[Post edited 30 Jun 2016 14:19]
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:09 - Jun 30 with 2642 views
The way the EU and it's representatives have acted during this whole process and especially after the actual vote has wholly justified our decision to leave in my opinion and the less said about the media coverage the better (Sky News in particular have acted extremely disingenuously throughout the whole campaign).
The fact that they're trying to bribe us now with this single market bullshit is indicative of the kind of people we're dealing with here - glorified bullies. I personally think if we're getting out then when we need to act pretty swiftly but first of all we need some strong leadership. Boris has certainly cemented his place as an absolute moron in my book and has come out of this whole affair smelling like lumpy shite.
[Post edited 30 Jun 2016 14:21]
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:13 - Jun 30 with 2637 views
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 13:15 - Jun 30 by EllGazzell
Brilliant, and probably so close to the truth.
What a couple of yellow bastards, Gideon and Johnson are, refusing to go for the leadership. Now on the Labour side, Eagle and Watson appear not to have the bottle to take on JC in a democratic vote, but will instead carry on trying to force him out by coups and by stealth.
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:13 - Jun 30 by 1mark1
Brilliant, and probably so close to the truth.
What a couple of yellow bastards, Gideon and Johnson are, refusing to go for the leadership. Now on the Labour side, Eagle and Watson appear not to have the bottle to take on JC in a democratic vote, but will instead carry on trying to force him out by coups and by stealth.
As I said- very worrying times. Both major parties have been made to appear completely venal and self serving. That's not good for democracy or the body politic in this country.
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:25 - Jun 30 with 2617 views
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:13 - Jun 30 by 1mark1
Brilliant, and probably so close to the truth.
What a couple of yellow bastards, Gideon and Johnson are, refusing to go for the leadership. Now on the Labour side, Eagle and Watson appear not to have the bottle to take on JC in a democratic vote, but will instead carry on trying to force him out by coups and by stealth.
Come on now, for just a quid a month any young tory can join the labour party and vote for the person they think will do the Party's chances no good at all.
I bet they are joining by the thousands already . . . .could that be why JC got the biggest ever victory in a leadership election?
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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 15:41 - Jun 30 with 2550 views
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:18 - Jun 30 by mingthemerciless
As I said- very worrying times. Both major parties have been made to appear completely venal and self serving. That's not good for democracy or the body politic in this country.
I agree about the venality. It's taken the Leave vote to flush out exactly how self-serving our political class are, on both sides of the debate.
In my opinion, that's a good thing. For donkeys years we've moaned about our politicians but despaired of anything changing. Not saying we'll end up with a bunch of angels but the referendum has exposed them for what they are - or at least most of them, and they'll find it impossible to win back their reputations after this.
There are a few good men, and women. Teresa May, Stephen Crabb (perhaps, if he can shake off the homophobia accusation). On the Labour side, Angela Eagle. There will be others, and it's now up to them to start the long process of restoring the good name of parliament with the public. A parliament free of the shackles of Brussels, the most corrupt and venal bunch of the lot.
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 15:38 - Jun 30 by pioneer
Come on now, for just a quid a month any young tory can join the labour party and vote for the person they think will do the Party's chances no good at all.
I bet they are joining by the thousands already . . . .could that be why JC got the biggest ever victory in a leadership election?
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:13 - Jun 30 by 1mark1
Brilliant, and probably so close to the truth.
What a couple of yellow bastards, Gideon and Johnson are, refusing to go for the leadership. Now on the Labour side, Eagle and Watson appear not to have the bottle to take on JC in a democratic vote, but will instead carry on trying to force him out by coups and by stealth.
The whole situation is pathetic.
I can't accept that with a referendum arranged for as long as it was, they could not have a plan in place.
No wonder the EU member states are incredulous at the situation. It's ok to give the UK some time to settle before activating article 50 but now it's getting ridiculous.
It needs activating asap and the UK starting it's leave, they said leave, now please just leave so we can all start to get on with things.
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 13:24 - Jun 30 by MoonyDale
And Bouncy Castle Boris has ruled himself out of the leadership battle, you couldn't make this sh1t up, what an almighty cock up this has been.....Cameron does a runner because he didn't want to be seen as the guy who took us out and the guy who screamed the loudest to leave hasn't the balls or the brain cells to do the job.
Now we have May and Gove at the top of a very small pile, oh and that Crabb guy who thinks being gay can be fixed because it's an illness.
Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:15 - Jun 30 by DaleiLama
Theresa may, but Boris won't!
Theresa May, god help us, the thick as Bisto home secretary, as one columnist calls her. I suppose she has a couple of good points. She takes Gideons mind off the economy.
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