| Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 155237 views | Glyn1 |
That's basically it.
Thoughts please. [Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:21 - Sep 28 with 2461 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:02 - Sep 28 by Andy1300 |
Wales Online Headlines - Wales recording 280 lab confirmed cases today!! As bad as the height of wave one!!! At the height of wave one we had 281 on April 20th.
Now open your eyes and read the small print.... today - 9850 tests carried out
April 20th - 898 tests carried out
So in real terms:
Today’s result = 2.9%
April 20th result = 31.2%
The media & Government are treating us like fools [Post edited 28 Sep 2020 22:06]
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I dont think anybody is treated as fools. Everyone knows that early on there were very few tests and that the only people tested were those in hospitals and later care homes. We simply didnt have the tests available at that time so most werent tested and were told to stay at home. You have been claiming on here that the more tests there are the more cases you will find and this destroys that theory. Actually the peak was 391 cases in a day. So now we have over 10 times the number of tests taking place yet still get the same figures. So much for increased testing will find more cases. |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:45 - Sep 28 with 2408 views | Andy1300 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:21 - Sep 28 by exhmrc1 |
I dont think anybody is treated as fools. Everyone knows that early on there were very few tests and that the only people tested were those in hospitals and later care homes. We simply didnt have the tests available at that time so most werent tested and were told to stay at home. You have been claiming on here that the more tests there are the more cases you will find and this destroys that theory. Actually the peak was 391 cases in a day. So now we have over 10 times the number of tests taking place yet still get the same figures. So much for increased testing will find more cases. |
They did find more cases with increased testing, cases are dropping as a percentage now so it’s not as bad as is being made out. |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 00:05 - Sep 29 with 2416 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:45 - Sep 28 by Andy1300 |
They did find more cases with increased testing, cases are dropping as a percentage now so it’s not as bad as is being made out. |
They havent found more cases because of testing. The figures dropped considerably despite testing increasing. The cases dropped from 391 a day in April to 8 a day in August despite testing increasing. It has only increased since they reopened our borders and pubs. The percentages are not decreasing they are going up. 2 weeks ago both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot had less than 1% yet today the weekly rate is 6.3% for Swansea and 3.2% for Neath Port Talbot and have been rising.
The higher figure for April is because those being tested were actually going to hospital with it. They didnt test everyone like today where loads of people who dont have it are being tested. This is the problem with random testing it just produces loads of negative cases and why random testing is totally pointless. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:25 - Sep 29 with 2367 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:02 - Sep 28 by Andy1300 |
Wales Online Headlines - Wales recording 280 lab confirmed cases today!! As bad as the height of wave one!!! At the height of wave one we had 281 on April 20th.
Now open your eyes and read the small print.... today - 9850 tests carried out
April 20th - 898 tests carried out
So in real terms:
Today’s result = 2.9%
April 20th result = 31.2%
The media & Government are treating us like fools [Post edited 28 Sep 2020 22:06]
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Nobody is treating us like fools. Its there in the public domain. How many actual cases do you think there were in the Spring? Restrictions are essential to stop us getting back to a scenario where thousands are dying and we don't have a NHS.
I genuinely think the only fools are these clowns who don't think this is real and is some kind of conspiracy to control. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:49 - Sep 29 with 2342 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:25 - Sep 29 by Scotia |
Nobody is treating us like fools. Its there in the public domain. How many actual cases do you think there were in the Spring? Restrictions are essential to stop us getting back to a scenario where thousands are dying and we don't have a NHS.
I genuinely think the only fools are these clowns who don't think this is real and is some kind of conspiracy to control. |
If anything highlights the failures of testing in the spring and how we could have had a half or even a third of the cases we ended up with.
The false positive narrative seems to be dying out now. Would be interesting to find out the true false negative rate. Theoretically the false positives should be 0.5% on an assay of 99.5% specificity, though poor sampling and substandard kits (supplied by Randox) did push this up. However sensitivity is lower at 95% (increased sensitivity comes at the cost of decreased specificity) which suggests a 5% false negative (virus present but not detected) but have seen suggestions of 10% or even 30%. This is a worry in rising cases.
My wife is now at home self isolating-a case in her primary school group | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:34 - Sep 29 with 2331 views | chad |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:49 - Sep 29 by Professor |
If anything highlights the failures of testing in the spring and how we could have had a half or even a third of the cases we ended up with.
The false positive narrative seems to be dying out now. Would be interesting to find out the true false negative rate. Theoretically the false positives should be 0.5% on an assay of 99.5% specificity, though poor sampling and substandard kits (supplied by Randox) did push this up. However sensitivity is lower at 95% (increased sensitivity comes at the cost of decreased specificity) which suggests a 5% false negative (virus present but not detected) but have seen suggestions of 10% or even 30%. This is a worry in rising cases.
My wife is now at home self isolating-a case in her primary school group |
Hi prof, hope your wife and you OK as I recall you saying you needed to be careful.
Interested in your opinion on Calum Semple, professor of child health and outbreak medicine at Liverpool. Heard him on the TV a few days back and looked him up as he seemed very down to earth and straightforward. Is he still a member of SAGE? I know a few months back, as an insider he seemed fairly happy with SAGE and it’s independence. |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:51 - Sep 29 with 2318 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:34 - Sep 29 by chad |
Hi prof, hope your wife and you OK as I recall you saying you needed to be careful.
Interested in your opinion on Calum Semple, professor of child health and outbreak medicine at Liverpool. Heard him on the TV a few days back and looked him up as he seemed very down to earth and straightforward. Is he still a member of SAGE? I know a few months back, as an insider he seemed fairly happy with SAGE and it’s independence. |
I don't know him personally, but I know a few people who work closely with him. All good reports on him and his work.. I think the composition of SAGE and the subgroups is fine now. There is a wider spread including people like Calum and my old boss Tom Solomon who are infectious disease clinicians, virologists and immunologists. Liverpool is exceptionally strong in emerging disease biology -things like Zika and Ebola, paediatric infections and even has a couple of people working on coronaviruses like MERS and SARS before the pandemic.
I think the initial make up was very narrow, mainly modellers, epidemiologists and behavioural people-little hands on expertise and nearly all from Oxford, Imperial and LSHTM (where Chris Whitty came from). The PM's SPAD was a bit taken with the flashy models and behaviour control which influenced early policy. Shame microbes don't follow policies! He is not on there either now. The advice is pretty sensible. Seems that Sunak is kicking against some of it.
Thanks for the best wishes. I have asthma, which turned out to be less of problem than initially thought. Still being careful. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:55 - Sep 29 with 2315 views | chad |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:51 - Sep 29 by Professor |
I don't know him personally, but I know a few people who work closely with him. All good reports on him and his work.. I think the composition of SAGE and the subgroups is fine now. There is a wider spread including people like Calum and my old boss Tom Solomon who are infectious disease clinicians, virologists and immunologists. Liverpool is exceptionally strong in emerging disease biology -things like Zika and Ebola, paediatric infections and even has a couple of people working on coronaviruses like MERS and SARS before the pandemic.
I think the initial make up was very narrow, mainly modellers, epidemiologists and behavioural people-little hands on expertise and nearly all from Oxford, Imperial and LSHTM (where Chris Whitty came from). The PM's SPAD was a bit taken with the flashy models and behaviour control which influenced early policy. Shame microbes don't follow policies! He is not on there either now. The advice is pretty sensible. Seems that Sunak is kicking against some of it.
Thanks for the best wishes. I have asthma, which turned out to be less of problem than initially thought. Still being careful. |
Very wise.
Thanks for the info Prof, v.interesting. Glad he seems pretty decent, just really took to him when I heard him speak. | | | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:23 - Sep 29 with 2300 views | Catullus |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:49 - Sep 29 by Professor |
If anything highlights the failures of testing in the spring and how we could have had a half or even a third of the cases we ended up with.
The false positive narrative seems to be dying out now. Would be interesting to find out the true false negative rate. Theoretically the false positives should be 0.5% on an assay of 99.5% specificity, though poor sampling and substandard kits (supplied by Randox) did push this up. However sensitivity is lower at 95% (increased sensitivity comes at the cost of decreased specificity) which suggests a 5% false negative (virus present but not detected) but have seen suggestions of 10% or even 30%. This is a worry in rising cases.
My wife is now at home self isolating-a case in her primary school group |
Hey Prof, you and your wife stay safe mate. There have been cases in years in my sons Comp but his year is clear. A few have had symptoms but had been isolating already.
It really seems very simple to me, stay vigiilant and follow the rules. By looking after ourselves properly we look after each other.
Re the testing, I wonder how many people were possibly pointlessly tested but came back positive? Those people could have been spreading the virus unawares of their condition. I think it's pointless banging on about percentages not changing, we need to know who is carrying the virus and let track and trace do it's job. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:27 - Sep 29 with 2293 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:23 - Sep 29 by Catullus |
Hey Prof, you and your wife stay safe mate. There have been cases in years in my sons Comp but his year is clear. A few have had symptoms but had been isolating already.
It really seems very simple to me, stay vigiilant and follow the rules. By looking after ourselves properly we look after each other.
Re the testing, I wonder how many people were possibly pointlessly tested but came back positive? Those people could have been spreading the virus unawares of their condition. I think it's pointless banging on about percentages not changing, we need to know who is carrying the virus and let track and trace do it's job. |
Sensible words my friend. I think the biggest frustration is how poor testing and track and trace has been. Should have been run locally by PHE and PHW with university labs supporting the PCR tests. Testing in Wales is actually more reliable than in England as still done by PHW labs! | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:07 - Sep 29 with 2283 views | Catullus |
Well the NHS Covid app has just pinged to update me, the risk in my area has been changed to high. I guess that means an increase in cases. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:09 - Sep 29 with 2282 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:27 - Sep 29 by Professor |
Sensible words my friend. I think the biggest frustration is how poor testing and track and trace has been. Should have been run locally by PHE and PHW with university labs supporting the PCR tests. Testing in Wales is actually more reliable than in England as still done by PHW labs! |
The last paragraph isnt true. Much of the testing in Wales is now being done in lIghthouse labs in England. The hospital cases are being done in NHS but most of the others are Lighthouse labs and that is part of the reason for the slow responses. The other day the English pulled out of RCT testing and Gething ended up replacing it with Wales testing by the Welsh Ambulance Service. Wales moved to lighthouse lab testing in June I believe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54130741 | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:25 - Sep 29 with 2274 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:09 - Sep 29 by exhmrc1 |
The last paragraph isnt true. Much of the testing in Wales is now being done in lIghthouse labs in England. The hospital cases are being done in NHS but most of the others are Lighthouse labs and that is part of the reason for the slow responses. The other day the English pulled out of RCT testing and Gething ended up replacing it with Wales testing by the Welsh Ambulance Service. Wales moved to lighthouse lab testing in June I believe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54130741 |
More or less back into PHW control now.
The testing is fine in the Lighthouse labs-I know the guy who set up MK. It's the process beforehand that's the problem. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:26 - Sep 29 with 2272 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:07 - Sep 29 by Catullus |
Well the NHS Covid app has just pinged to update me, the risk in my area has been changed to high. I guess that means an increase in cases. |
Most of the country (UK) is high other than rural areas by the sound of it-take care Catty! | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:52 - Sep 29 with 2260 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:25 - Sep 29 by Professor |
More or less back into PHW control now.
The testing is fine in the Lighthouse labs-I know the guy who set up MK. It's the process beforehand that's the problem. |
The Daily figures for yesterday are showing most tests are not done by Welsh labs.
https://t.co/zpWRYSUbfh?amp=1 | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:44 - Sep 29 with 2250 views | Professor |
Not what I was told by someone who would know, but won't dispute it | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:20 - Sep 29 with 2228 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:44 - Sep 29 by Professor |
Not what I was told by someone who would know, but won't dispute it |
But you do seem to be disputing it. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:29 - Sep 29 with 2231 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:20 - Sep 29 by felixstowe_jack |
But you do seem to be disputing it. |
Not disputing it as no point and person telling could have been wrong. It’s a completely moot argument. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:43 - Sep 29 with 2157 views | pikeypaul |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:20 - Sep 29 by felixstowe_jack |
But you do seem to be disputing it. |
POST REMOVED FOR ABUSIVE LANGUAGE AND FORMATTING ABUSIVE WORDS TO BY PASS SITE FILTERS.
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:31 - Sep 30 with 2021 views | Andy1300 |
Lockdown based on over exaggerated predictions from a so called expert.
The response to Covid-19 in the UK, the US and other countries was shaped by the dramatic headlines in mid-March, suggesting 550,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the US. Faced with widely publicised, alarming figures, as demonstrated by Imperial College’s Professor Neil Ferguson, governments were forced to react with the unprecedented lockdown to suppress Covid-19. No one looked at his ten years of predictions that were wrong.
The results of his previous models produced wildly inaccurate results: the prediction of 200 million deaths worldwide from bird flu in 2005, when just 282 people died between 2003 and 2009, without locking down economies. That model had serious flaws. He used an undocumented, highly complex, 13-year-old computer code for a feared influenza pandemic.
Wake up people before it’s too late | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:02 - Sep 30 with 2018 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:31 - Sep 30 by Andy1300 |
Lockdown based on over exaggerated predictions from a so called expert.
The response to Covid-19 in the UK, the US and other countries was shaped by the dramatic headlines in mid-March, suggesting 550,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the US. Faced with widely publicised, alarming figures, as demonstrated by Imperial College’s Professor Neil Ferguson, governments were forced to react with the unprecedented lockdown to suppress Covid-19. No one looked at his ten years of predictions that were wrong.
The results of his previous models produced wildly inaccurate results: the prediction of 200 million deaths worldwide from bird flu in 2005, when just 282 people died between 2003 and 2009, without locking down economies. That model had serious flaws. He used an undocumented, highly complex, 13-year-old computer code for a feared influenza pandemic.
Wake up people before it’s too late |
Depending on the figures you take we have already had up to 70,000 deaths and that is having locked down. Had we not done so how many would there have been. The guy is a professor at Imperial College one of the worlds leading science universities. What qualifications do you have to doubt him.His predictions were without lockdown which has saved a huge number of deaths. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:24 - Sep 30 with 2010 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:02 - Sep 30 by exhmrc1 |
Depending on the figures you take we have already had up to 70,000 deaths and that is having locked down. Had we not done so how many would there have been. The guy is a professor at Imperial College one of the worlds leading science universities. What qualifications do you have to doubt him.His predictions were without lockdown which has saved a huge number of deaths. |
He may be a professor, but his modelling program and results have been mocked by many. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:58 - Oct 1 with 1931 views | pikeypaul |
Is the lock down ending too soon?
Depends where you live I suppose.
If you live in a shitty terraced house in a city with a small or no garden probably not, since their mental health will be taking a trip south the longer they are stuck on their cages.
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:48 - Oct 1 with 1902 views | Catullus |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:02 - Sep 30 by exhmrc1 |
Depending on the figures you take we have already had up to 70,000 deaths and that is having locked down. Had we not done so how many would there have been. The guy is a professor at Imperial College one of the worlds leading science universities. What qualifications do you have to doubt him.His predictions were without lockdown which has saved a huge number of deaths. |
You don't need qualifications to doubt someone if there's enough evidence of them being wrong!
I'm somewhere between you and and Andy1300 on this, we still need caution but we can't go too far because the economy will collapse. So people need to obey the rules, we need to protect the most vulnerable and young people need to stop behaving like it's some kind of cause to celebrate.
Now today was a big day for us, my wife was in hospital having a test, I very much hope for a negative result. Then I got a phone call from the waiting list office, I am seeing my surgeon next week, they want to push on with my operation. So the NHS is trying to get on with it but the first rule is, I have to be able to isolate for 14 days before the op. The point is, we need to be getting on with life where possible, if that means making massive changes to the norms then so be it. BUT, if people can't or won't obey the rules they will bring catastrophe down on us, another national lockdown will be a catastrophe, I have no doubt. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:25 - Oct 1 with 1896 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:48 - Oct 1 by Catullus |
You don't need qualifications to doubt someone if there's enough evidence of them being wrong!
I'm somewhere between you and and Andy1300 on this, we still need caution but we can't go too far because the economy will collapse. So people need to obey the rules, we need to protect the most vulnerable and young people need to stop behaving like it's some kind of cause to celebrate.
Now today was a big day for us, my wife was in hospital having a test, I very much hope for a negative result. Then I got a phone call from the waiting list office, I am seeing my surgeon next week, they want to push on with my operation. So the NHS is trying to get on with it but the first rule is, I have to be able to isolate for 14 days before the op. The point is, we need to be getting on with life where possible, if that means making massive changes to the norms then so be it. BUT, if people can't or won't obey the rules they will bring catastrophe down on us, another national lockdown will be a catastrophe, I have no doubt. |
The guy is far better qualified than me, you or anyone else on here. I would rather belief him than Andy. He is a leading scientist in one of the world leading institutions. We already know than we have well over 40,000 deaths according to PHE and well over 50,000 according to ONS. According to records there were nearly 70,000 deaths more at this time than there were at the same time last year. We are going into a second phase and 6 died in Wales alone today. There has been over 70 UK wide for the last couple of days which is likely to increase as we go through October. If this goes on until the new year we have around 100 days. How many are going to die. It will likely be somewhere near 100000. That will be far lower than it would have been without lockdown and his figure might well have occurred. The truth is nobody knows but he is in a much better position than any of us. | | | |
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