| BRENTFORD 20:36 - Jul 7 with 78565 views | qpr_1968 |
anyone pissed off with them keep winning. |  |
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| BRENTFORD on 19:15 - Jan 30 with 3300 views | NewBee |
| BRENTFORD on 17:21 - Jan 30 by Wegerles_Stairs |
The thing is, well as they're obviously playing, they're still not clear of their rivals. This season it looks like it'll be close at both ends. You'd imagine Norwich will go up and Wycombe go down but everything else is up for grabs. |
Latest update from FiveThirtyEight now has Bees as favourites (just) to win the Championship, with a 37% chance. Norwich next on 36%, then Watford on 11%.
Bees are 72% to get promoted (NCFC 69%, WFC 43%).
Meanwhile, QPR are 11% to get relegated (leaves you 17th in the table), while still having a 2% chance of making the Play-Offs.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
(Can't figure out how to post a shot of the predictions table itself) [Post edited 30 Jan 2021 19:16]
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| BRENTFORD on 20:20 - Jan 30 with 3163 views | Wegerles_Stairs |
| BRENTFORD on 19:15 - Jan 30 by NewBee |
Latest update from FiveThirtyEight now has Bees as favourites (just) to win the Championship, with a 37% chance. Norwich next on 36%, then Watford on 11%.
Bees are 72% to get promoted (NCFC 69%, WFC 43%).
Meanwhile, QPR are 11% to get relegated (leaves you 17th in the table), while still having a 2% chance of making the Play-Offs.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
(Can't figure out how to post a shot of the predictions table itself) [Post edited 30 Jan 2021 19:16]
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I don't understand how you can have twice the probability of being promoted as Swansea. You're two points behind with a game in hand. [Post edited 30 Jan 2021 20:23]
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| BRENTFORD on 20:36 - Jan 30 with 3120 views | LongsufferingR |
| BRENTFORD on 20:20 - Jan 30 by Wegerles_Stairs |
I don't understand how you can have twice the probability of being promoted as Swansea. You're two points behind with a game in hand. [Post edited 30 Jan 2021 20:23]
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.....or Norwich who are 6 points ahead having only played one game more. I suppose it means that Brentford are statistically superior to any other team who have actually gained more points. That's how they got promoted last season.........oops |  | | |
| BRENTFORD on 20:38 - Jan 30 with 3111 views | loftboy |
| BRENTFORD on 19:15 - Jan 30 by NewBee |
Latest update from FiveThirtyEight now has Bees as favourites (just) to win the Championship, with a 37% chance. Norwich next on 36%, then Watford on 11%.
Bees are 72% to get promoted (NCFC 69%, WFC 43%).
Meanwhile, QPR are 11% to get relegated (leaves you 17th in the table), while still having a 2% chance of making the Play-Offs.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
(Can't figure out how to post a shot of the predictions table itself) [Post edited 30 Jan 2021 19:16]
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Anyone that uses % in football predictions is a right cûnt IMHO |  |
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| BRENTFORD on 20:41 - Jan 30 with 3102 views | LongsufferingR |
| BRENTFORD on 20:38 - Jan 30 by loftboy |
Anyone that uses % in football predictions is a right cûnt IMHO |
Well actually only 84% of them are | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 21:36 - Jan 30 with 3005 views | stowmarketrange |
| BRENTFORD on 20:36 - Jan 30 by LongsufferingR |
.....or Norwich who are 6 points ahead having only played one game more. I suppose it means that Brentford are statistically superior to any other team who have actually gained more points. That's how they got promoted last season.........oops |
It could just be the homework of a 12 year bees fan who has just been given a laptop for home schooling? |  | | |
| BRENTFORD on 22:14 - Jan 30 with 2969 views | switchingcode |
With 18 to 24 points available to all teams over the next 4 weeks there could be a big change to how the league looks by the time we get to March. | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 22:29 - Jan 30 with 2939 views | DannyPaddox |
| BRENTFORD on 22:14 - Jan 30 by switchingcode |
With 18 to 24 points available to all teams over the next 4 weeks there could be a big change to how the league looks by the time we get to March. |
I’m gonna stick my neck out and say the weather will be warmer too. |  | | |
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| BRENTFORD on 22:39 - Jan 30 with 2903 views | switchingcode |
| BRENTFORD on 22:29 - Jan 30 by DannyPaddox |
I’m gonna stick my neck out and say the weather will be warmer too. |
Yes amusing, but I was referring to the prediction chart with these number of games over a short period along with injuries and COVID things can change at the top and bottom apart from Wycombe who are now a bit cut off. | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 00:14 - Jan 31 with 2808 views | NewBee |
| BRENTFORD on 21:36 - Jan 30 by stowmarketrange |
It could just be the homework of a 12 year bees fan who has just been given a laptop for home schooling? |
FiveThirtyEight is an American site which does statistical analysis of a huge range of topics covering Politics, Sports and Science worldwide to produce predictions.
As regards their Championship predictions:
"Forecasting seasons
Once we have probabilities for every match, we then run Monte Carlo simulations to play out each league’s season 20,000 times using those forecasts. As with our other projections, we run our Monte Carlo simulations “hot,” meaning that instead of a team’s ratings remaining static within each simulated season, the ratings can rise or fall based on the simulated matches the team plays. In effect, this widens the distribution of possible outcomes by allowing a weak team to go on a winning streak and increase its ratings substantially, or providing for the possibility that a strong team loses its first few games of a simulated season and is penalized accordingly."
Which you might have known had you done even a modicum of homework before posting ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/ | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 00:19 - Jan 31 with 2803 views | CliveWilsonSaid |
| BRENTFORD on 22:29 - Jan 30 by DannyPaddox |
I’m gonna stick my neck out and say the weather will be warmer too. |
Think you've p!ssed them off a bit Danny 👠|  |
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| BRENTFORD on 00:38 - Jan 31 with 2783 views | CroydonCaptJack |
Whats the % chance of them bottling it again? |  | | |
| BRENTFORD on 00:42 - Jan 31 with 2780 views | NewBee |
Currently 28% (as per FiveThirtyEight - other prediction sites are available) [Post edited 31 Jan 2021 0:44]
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| BRENTFORD on 01:17 - Jan 31 with 2741 views | qprxtc |
Weeds grow. You cut them down. But still, eventually the flowers will flourish. As they always do. |  | | |
| BRENTFORD on 06:49 - Jan 31 with 2652 views | stowmarketrange |
| BRENTFORD on 00:14 - Jan 31 by NewBee |
FiveThirtyEight is an American site which does statistical analysis of a huge range of topics covering Politics, Sports and Science worldwide to produce predictions.
As regards their Championship predictions:
"Forecasting seasons
Once we have probabilities for every match, we then run Monte Carlo simulations to play out each league’s season 20,000 times using those forecasts. As with our other projections, we run our Monte Carlo simulations “hot,” meaning that instead of a team’s ratings remaining static within each simulated season, the ratings can rise or fall based on the simulated matches the team plays. In effect, this widens the distribution of possible outcomes by allowing a weak team to go on a winning streak and increase its ratings substantially, or providing for the possibility that a strong team loses its first few games of a simulated season and is penalized accordingly."
Which you might have known had you done even a modicum of homework before posting ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/ |
I wonder what their statistics said about your chances of falling at the last few hurdles last season?Especially with only Barnsley at home to beat.
I think I’ll stick to an actual league table at the end of the season to find out who got promoted rather than some geeks sitting around a bunch of laptops telling me what might happen in a sporting event spread over 7 or 8 months. | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 08:05 - Jan 31 with 2584 views | denhamhoop2 |
| BRENTFORD on 00:14 - Jan 31 by NewBee |
FiveThirtyEight is an American site which does statistical analysis of a huge range of topics covering Politics, Sports and Science worldwide to produce predictions.
As regards their Championship predictions:
"Forecasting seasons
Once we have probabilities for every match, we then run Monte Carlo simulations to play out each league’s season 20,000 times using those forecasts. As with our other projections, we run our Monte Carlo simulations “hot,” meaning that instead of a team’s ratings remaining static within each simulated season, the ratings can rise or fall based on the simulated matches the team plays. In effect, this widens the distribution of possible outcomes by allowing a weak team to go on a winning streak and increase its ratings substantially, or providing for the possibility that a strong team loses its first few games of a simulated season and is penalized accordingly."
Which you might have known had you done even a modicum of homework before posting ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/ |
Just looked at their Championship prediction like all simulation matrixes it depends on the data inputted and this one lists Brentford as having the best defence which having conceded 9 more than Swansea would seem a little flawed for me. The fact it also predicts Wycombe to get 39 points seems a might optimistic to me | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 09:53 - Jan 31 with 2497 views | LongsufferingR |
| BRENTFORD on 00:14 - Jan 31 by NewBee |
FiveThirtyEight is an American site which does statistical analysis of a huge range of topics covering Politics, Sports and Science worldwide to produce predictions.
As regards their Championship predictions:
"Forecasting seasons
Once we have probabilities for every match, we then run Monte Carlo simulations to play out each league’s season 20,000 times using those forecasts. As with our other projections, we run our Monte Carlo simulations “hot,” meaning that instead of a team’s ratings remaining static within each simulated season, the ratings can rise or fall based on the simulated matches the team plays. In effect, this widens the distribution of possible outcomes by allowing a weak team to go on a winning streak and increase its ratings substantially, or providing for the possibility that a strong team loses its first few games of a simulated season and is penalized accordingly."
Which you might have known had you done even a modicum of homework before posting ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/ |
...and the end result is still absolute bollox. Maybe the key is don't get too excited half way through the season when you thrash the bottom side at home, and you won't get carried away with your own self-importance prior to an egg/face situation. | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 10:43 - Jan 31 with 2436 views | distortR |
| BRENTFORD on 22:14 - Jan 30 by switchingcode |
With 18 to 24 points available to all teams over the next 4 weeks there could be a big change to how the league looks by the time we get to March. |
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| BRENTFORD on 17:52 - Feb 6 with 2190 views | qpr_1968 |
52 goals for these boys now, think its the amount of goals they score will get them up.
i know its early, can't see them blowing it this time round.
gonna be one hell of a game 2 weeks time..... | |
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| BRENTFORD on 17:53 - Feb 6 with 2177 views | Juzzie |
Whisper it quietly..... they’re going up. |  | | |
| BRENTFORD on 17:54 - Feb 6 with 2173 views | LongsufferingR |
Apparently they are now statistically 134% likely to go up and 97% certainties for the Nobel Peace prize. | | | |
| BRENTFORD on 18:01 - Feb 6 with 2130 views | Boston |
QPR. anyone pissed off with us keep on winning. | |
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| BRENTFORD on 18:06 - Feb 6 with 2112 views | qpr_1968 |
| BRENTFORD on 18:01 - Feb 6 by Boston |
QPR. anyone pissed off with us keep on winning. |
evens it up a bit, well noticed. | |
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| BRENTFORD on 18:12 - Feb 6 with 2090 views | Boston |
Current form would have us third in the table behind Brentford and Swansea. | |
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| BRENTFORD on 19:01 - Feb 6 with 2015 views | Stanisgod |
| BRENTFORD on 00:14 - Jan 31 by NewBee |
FiveThirtyEight is an American site which does statistical analysis of a huge range of topics covering Politics, Sports and Science worldwide to produce predictions.
As regards their Championship predictions:
"Forecasting seasons
Once we have probabilities for every match, we then run Monte Carlo simulations to play out each league’s season 20,000 times using those forecasts. As with our other projections, we run our Monte Carlo simulations “hot,” meaning that instead of a team’s ratings remaining static within each simulated season, the ratings can rise or fall based on the simulated matches the team plays. In effect, this widens the distribution of possible outcomes by allowing a weak team to go on a winning streak and increase its ratings substantially, or providing for the possibility that a strong team loses its first few games of a simulated season and is penalized accordingly."
Which you might have known had you done even a modicum of homework before posting ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/ |
Might as well not bother playing any games games, it's all so predictable apparently. 🙄🙄🙄 |  |
| It's being so happy that keeps me going. |
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