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The one thing I am certain of re this vote is that no-one knows for sure what the repercussions economically will be if we pull out. If you listen to the experts it will be better if we stay in, however its all unconvincing. My issue is that after 10 years of Austerity, the services in this country have been cut to the bone, that is services that are needed by us all - not just Immigrants/benefit spongers. We are not in a position to afford the enormous gamble if it all goes t1ts up. I am taking my lead from Ray Winston and gambling responsibly and staying in. If we ever get to situation when everything is adequately funded and horrible 0 hours contracts were abolished ... then maybe it might be worth the risk to pull out. But to do it now is a massive gamble which we just cannot afford to lose.
2
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 16:32 - Jun 25 with 2276 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 13:07 - Jun 25 by pastieR
haven't read it all, but maybe his thought was the majority of those who couldn't vote were the young and in favour of the EU the generation that had it all - cheap housing, jobs for life, final salary pensions has decided their future, I just hope they're right
"the generation that had it all - cheap housing, jobs for life, final salary pensions has decided their future, I just hope they're right "
I am of that generation. Never had cheap housing, never had a job for life and haven't got a pension. Mind you, I left school when I was 15 and started work the next day, what more could I have expected??
Up the workers!!
3
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 16:51 - Jun 25 with 2238 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 16:36 - Jun 25 by Hoop_Du_Jour
"the generation that had it all - cheap housing, jobs for life, final salary pensions has decided their future, I just hope they're right "
I am of that generation. Never had cheap housing, never had a job for life and haven't got a pension. Mind you, I left school when I was 15 and started work the next day, what more could I have expected??
Up the workers!!
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12025954/brexit-young-voters-remain don't think i'm referring to you, I understand the working class anger, but I think that is misplaced, I think it should be directed at tory party which led the leave campaign, and one we'll have to deal with for years, once scotland leaves i'm talking about the baby boomers who have houses worth millions that they bought for a fraction of the price, not only leaving their debt for future generations to deal with but also one they didn't want.
-1
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 17:05 - Jun 25 with 2217 views
With no article 50 activated, and no timetable I have a feeling that the exit may not happen.
The referendum could be legally described as advisory (see David Lammy's comments today) and it has no basis in law; if a leader wanted to use that (May, I'm looking at you) to justify a 2nd referendum it's quite possible that this vote will have been for nought.
The leadership contest for the Tories will be dirty and divisive and likely to lead to a further GE if the will of the Parliamentary Tory Party is considered. The backtracking - NHS, free movement for employment, etc - has already started to win back the Remainers in the PTP and establish a power base for nominations. If Gove is up against Johnson to get onto the ballot, factions will be created which will, as Labour have experienced, take a long time to come together - if ever.
This is going to get very messy and there's a lot of politics to play out before we get anywhere near some form of resolution.
*edit Just noted that the Scotland Act 1998 may require a vote by the Scottish Parliament to agree to the Article 50 activation; if that's the case then nothing is going to happen towards exit.
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 17:05 - Jun 25 by E17hoop
With no article 50 activated, and no timetable I have a feeling that the exit may not happen.
The referendum could be legally described as advisory (see David Lammy's comments today) and it has no basis in law; if a leader wanted to use that (May, I'm looking at you) to justify a 2nd referendum it's quite possible that this vote will have been for nought.
The leadership contest for the Tories will be dirty and divisive and likely to lead to a further GE if the will of the Parliamentary Tory Party is considered. The backtracking - NHS, free movement for employment, etc - has already started to win back the Remainers in the PTP and establish a power base for nominations. If Gove is up against Johnson to get onto the ballot, factions will be created which will, as Labour have experienced, take a long time to come together - if ever.
This is going to get very messy and there's a lot of politics to play out before we get anywhere near some form of resolution.
*edit Just noted that the Scotland Act 1998 may require a vote by the Scottish Parliament to agree to the Article 50 activation; if that's the case then nothing is going to happen towards exit.
[Post edited 25 Jun 2016 17:19]
If the majority of MP's are for remain how did the bill to hold the referendum get passed.
There is no way the Scottish Government will vote against Article 50 activation they want a Scottish independence referendum.
'
[Post edited 25 Jun 2016 17:53]
0
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 18:08 - Jun 25 with 2129 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 17:52 - Jun 25 by QPR_John
If the majority of MP's are for remain how did the bill to hold the referendum get passed.
There is no way the Scottish Government will vote against Article 50 activation they want a Scottish independence referendum.
'
[Post edited 25 Jun 2016 17:53]
Because they thought remain would win; you only hold a referendum if you know you can win it.
The Conservative a(nd Unionist party) have a commitment to a remain part of a United Kingdom and can't afford to let Scotland leave and will not want to allow them to hold a 2nd independence referendum. So for the duration, the SNP could stop any exit happening until they get what they want.
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 23:08 - Jun 24 by beeeater
That's the scary point. There is no plan. I can't believe anyone would vote for exit under those conditions. A bit like getting some builder in to put up conservatory for you who doesn't have a plan, the materials or tools to build it. You just wouldn't do it. Mind you he'd probably be Polish 😃
Not sure many in the Leave camp voted FOR anything. More like a vote against the establishment
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
0
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 19:01 - Jun 25 with 2053 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 18:21 - Jun 25 by loftboy
If that happens then that's 17 million people voting for ukip at the next election, on the figures cor the last election conservative got in on less.
Unlikely - on a single issue referendum people will conflate support with a single issue party. In a GE, where there are more factors to consider, people vote more traditionally.
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 17:05 - Jun 25 by E17hoop
With no article 50 activated, and no timetable I have a feeling that the exit may not happen.
The referendum could be legally described as advisory (see David Lammy's comments today) and it has no basis in law; if a leader wanted to use that (May, I'm looking at you) to justify a 2nd referendum it's quite possible that this vote will have been for nought.
The leadership contest for the Tories will be dirty and divisive and likely to lead to a further GE if the will of the Parliamentary Tory Party is considered. The backtracking - NHS, free movement for employment, etc - has already started to win back the Remainers in the PTP and establish a power base for nominations. If Gove is up against Johnson to get onto the ballot, factions will be created which will, as Labour have experienced, take a long time to come together - if ever.
This is going to get very messy and there's a lot of politics to play out before we get anywhere near some form of resolution.
*edit Just noted that the Scotland Act 1998 may require a vote by the Scottish Parliament to agree to the Article 50 activation; if that's the case then nothing is going to happen towards exit.
[Post edited 25 Jun 2016 17:19]
Think you could be right E17, well worth a read below. Cant link to the original.
' If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.'
[Post edited 26 Jun 2016 9:59]
2
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 20:50 - Jun 25 with 1947 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 19:57 - Jun 25 by Brightonhoop
Think you could be right E17, well worth a read below. Cant link to the original.
' If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.'
[Post edited 26 Jun 2016 9:59]
In reality what you and many more are saying is that we can never leave the EU whatever they throw at us. Joining the Euro and Shengen in the near future must be on the cards. I don't see why you accept Scotland has the right to leave the UK if we leave the EU but we cannot leave the EU under any circumstances.
1
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:08 - Jun 25 with 1922 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 20:50 - Jun 25 by QPR_John
In reality what you and many more are saying is that we can never leave the EU whatever they throw at us. Joining the Euro and Shengen in the near future must be on the cards. I don't see why you accept Scotland has the right to leave the UK if we leave the EU but we cannot leave the EU under any circumstances.
Not at all - but the Leave campaign failed to state what they meant when they described Leave. Carswell has just admitted that the plan needs to be designed and the failure to have a credible plan makes an exit much more difficult. If, as I suggest above, a GE with manifestos for exit are designed, then it may happen but at present, it feels unlikely.
To suggest that not exiting is a mandate for further integration is entirely wrong and there is no evidence that this has been planned.
The political relationship with Scotland has been running since the West Lothian question was first raised in 1977 and the referendum result has just added power to the SNP.
There are politics at play here that are complicated, complex, and being influenced by a range of nuanced factors which no-one had ever predicted. Cameron's resignation has dropped a boulder into a pond and the ripples are going to oscillate for some time.
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 20:50 - Jun 25 by QPR_John
In reality what you and many more are saying is that we can never leave the EU whatever they throw at us. Joining the Euro and Shengen in the near future must be on the cards. I don't see why you accept Scotland has the right to leave the UK if we leave the EU but we cannot leave the EU under any circumstances.
No wonder the Bar Stewards in Brussels won't entertain any thought of reform... They' ve basically got all the members by the short and curlies... Christ almighty talk about stuck between a rock and a hard place
0
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:15 - Jun 25 with 1907 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 20:50 - Jun 25 by QPR_John
In reality what you and many more are saying is that we can never leave the EU whatever they throw at us. Joining the Euro and Shengen in the near future must be on the cards. I don't see why you accept Scotland has the right to leave the UK if we leave the EU but we cannot leave the EU under any circumstances.
Farages own words were 'If this goes against us 52-48 that will be unfinished business.'; They sold the vote on the basis that £350 million would be put into the NHS every week, in big letters, down the side of a bus, that was on the news every day for weeks, then welshed on it the morning after the vote. Johnson is back tracking wildly because he hasn't got the guts to press the Article 50 button, ( let's takr this slowly, there's no rush etc etc) and Cameron has left them with an impossible task and a poisoned chalice,.. Now we know the £350 Million a week promise for the NHS was a fraudulent claim, the Ref result cannot stand. That is exactly how Hitler got into power. I hope the MP's refuse to ratify next week forcing a new Vote.
0
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:26 - Jun 25 with 1882 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 20:50 - Jun 25 by QPR_John
In reality what you and many more are saying is that we can never leave the EU whatever they throw at us. Joining the Euro and Shengen in the near future must be on the cards. I don't see why you accept Scotland has the right to leave the UK if we leave the EU but we cannot leave the EU under any circumstances.
It doesn't say we can't leave the EU, it says the leavers have no idea how to run the country outside.
Like 'em or not (and I don't) the SNP had set out a clear document on how they would run Scotland e.g. keeping the £ and joining the EU. Personally I thought it had problems, but it was a plan.
The leavers have nothing. Nada. There's lots of promises - we'll still trade with Europe, we'll have more trade outside Europe, we'll still be the world's 5th economy, we'll get back £350m a week we were paying in and we'll be able to spend it on the NHS. We'll get better trade deals now we can negotiate our own ones. There'll be less regulation. The UK will be free and independent again. There definitely won't be a recession, or a run on the pound or any of that scaremongering. Choirs of angels will sing and fluffy bunny rabbits will float through the air. But there's no actual plan.
There's no "we can't leave" about it. We can and are going to. Just watch what the terms are going to be.
In or out of the free market? Free movement of labour or not? Paying into EU funds or not?
Watch what deal we get and ask yourself if that was what you voted for. Already a Tory "Leave" MP (Hannan) says we'll still have EU citizens entitled to come here. Already Farage says we can't spend all the money on the NHS. Already the Scots government is looking at ways to leave the UK, or at least keep Scotland in the EU. Already Sinn Fein are stirring it in Northern Ireland.
If the new government can do all the things they said they could do I'll stand up and cheer. They've earned the right to try. Meanwhile, count the promises they break and the promises they keep. And act accordingly.
And of course, its vice versa too - you can't insist on our right to leave the EU after a referendum but deny the Scots the right to leave the UK after a referendum (or the right to say in the EU if they vote to in a referendum - which they did.) If you try there'll be blood on the streets. Possibly literally.
0
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:27 - Jun 25 with 1882 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 19:57 - Jun 25 by Brightonhoop
Think you could be right E17, well worth a read below. Cant link to the original.
' If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.'
[Post edited 26 Jun 2016 9:59]
This is truly insightful and probably very near the truth.
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:18 - Jun 25 by Brightonhoop
Farages own words were 'If this goes against us 52-48 that will be unfinished business.'; They sold the vote on the basis that £350 million would be put into the NHS every week, in big letters, down the side of a bus, that was on the news every day for weeks, then welshed on it the morning after the vote. Johnson is back tracking wildly because he hasn't got the guts to press the Article 50 button, ( let's takr this slowly, there's no rush etc etc) and Cameron has left them with an impossible task and a poisoned chalice,.. Now we know the £350 Million a week promise for the NHS was a fraudulent claim, the Ref result cannot stand. That is exactly how Hitler got into power. I hope the MP's refuse to ratify next week forcing a new Vote.
It's nothing like Hitlers rise to power... Please behave Brighton
1
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:53 - Jun 25 with 2114 views
But trade would be on their terms as they'd be the bigger trading partner. To believe that the UK could have access to the free trade area at no cost is at best short-sighted, and at worst irresponsible if it was the basis for the Leave negotiations.
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:26 - Jun 25 by CiderwithRsie
It doesn't say we can't leave the EU, it says the leavers have no idea how to run the country outside.
Like 'em or not (and I don't) the SNP had set out a clear document on how they would run Scotland e.g. keeping the £ and joining the EU. Personally I thought it had problems, but it was a plan.
The leavers have nothing. Nada. There's lots of promises - we'll still trade with Europe, we'll have more trade outside Europe, we'll still be the world's 5th economy, we'll get back £350m a week we were paying in and we'll be able to spend it on the NHS. We'll get better trade deals now we can negotiate our own ones. There'll be less regulation. The UK will be free and independent again. There definitely won't be a recession, or a run on the pound or any of that scaremongering. Choirs of angels will sing and fluffy bunny rabbits will float through the air. But there's no actual plan.
There's no "we can't leave" about it. We can and are going to. Just watch what the terms are going to be.
In or out of the free market? Free movement of labour or not? Paying into EU funds or not?
Watch what deal we get and ask yourself if that was what you voted for. Already a Tory "Leave" MP (Hannan) says we'll still have EU citizens entitled to come here. Already Farage says we can't spend all the money on the NHS. Already the Scots government is looking at ways to leave the UK, or at least keep Scotland in the EU. Already Sinn Fein are stirring it in Northern Ireland.
If the new government can do all the things they said they could do I'll stand up and cheer. They've earned the right to try. Meanwhile, count the promises they break and the promises they keep. And act accordingly.
And of course, its vice versa too - you can't insist on our right to leave the EU after a referendum but deny the Scots the right to leave the UK after a referendum (or the right to say in the EU if they vote to in a referendum - which they did.) If you try there'll be blood on the streets. Possibly literally.
"Like 'em or not (and I don't) the SNP had set out a clear document on how they would run Scotland e.g. keeping the £ and joining the EU. Personally I thought it had problems, but it was a plan. "
Good luck with that. All new members have to adopt the Euro
0
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 22:21 - Jun 25 with 2058 views
Brexit .... My thoughts... on 21:56 - Jun 25 by QPR_John
"Like 'em or not (and I don't) the SNP had set out a clear document on how they would run Scotland e.g. keeping the £ and joining the EU. Personally I thought it had problems, but it was a plan. "
Good luck with that. All new members have to adopt the Euro
As a current EU territory, they are, arguably, already a member and so adoption of the Euro could be argued as not required since they wouldn't be a new member, but continuing. It's effectively moot though until A50 has been activated.
If we're external to the EU they can put up any barriers they want. If we've elected to leave their club, it's not down to us to tell them the rules of the club any more.
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