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..posted by a good friend of mine on Facebook, thought I'd share it on here. He's a former professional footballer (briefly for Birmingham City) and a former copper, working mainly out of Camden police station. He grew up in Kilburn/Queens Park. He's now a writer (among other things).
Worth a read I think, hope you enjoy, whether you agree with him or not, even when he veers off-topic...
"Thoughts of the Week (part 1)
Let’s start with a subheading. ‘Dear, oh dear Diane Abbot!’
In the upcoming General Election campaign and apart from the ‘Leader’ (no, not Gary Glitter) no one is more important for the Labour Party campaign than the Shadow Home Secretary. Why’s this? You ask. The reason is obvious: Theresa May —the strong woman, Ms subtle, but steely - was the former Home Secretary. A position which she used to inflict near terminal ravages of the nation’s police forces. Under her auspices we saw numbers cut, benefits cut and police stations closed willy-nilly to cash in, short-term, on the booming (especially in London) property market.
The short-sightedness of this policy is astounding. No matter the so-called austerity budget (which only seems to apply to the working classes, while the privileged elite continue to live the life of Riley) the question must be asked as to what will happen when there’s some serious social unrest — and you can feel it stirring. Remember 2011 when the riots broke out? We had anarchy and nihilism on the streets and the police force didn’t cope with it at all. Instead we had a grand mopping up campaign. Suddenly all those poor silly students who had been demonised as hard-core criminals after they smashed the windows of the Tory HQ — and received ridiculously harsh prison sentences for what were in the main first offences - were kicked out of the pokey and replaced by the new batch of rioters. The Criminal Justice system ground to a halt, the prison’s overflowed. The courts were as ram-jam packed as a back-in-the-day David Rodigan dance. In response what did the great Theresa May do? She further decimated the police force. She did the same to the prison service. The vaunted Border Force, our first defence, is comically short of manpower and morale as they attempt to hire staff on Mickey-Mouse contracts. Labour should be slaughtering Theresa May on what she’s done. Instead we got that car crash of an interview on LBC.
To be honest I resisted calls to listen to it for a time. Some of my more right-leaning pals were raving about it, but I thought they were overreacting due to a general contempt for the Hackney MP. I was wrong. When I actually got round to listening to it I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. It was stunningly incompetent, mind-blowingly nonsensical, embarrassing and shocking. Is this the Shadow Home Secretary who’s going to lead the challenge to Theresa May’s record? She should have stood down immediately and if not the great leader should have forced her hand, no matter past rendezvous in the sack. Of course it didn’t happen and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn has no hope in this election. What a shame it all is because there are loads of issues that they should be taking the government to task on. Just look at that bumbling Tommy Cooper impersonator of a Foreign Secretary, a million miles removed from a serious statesman: Mr Retraction — an embarrassment to the nation.
I’m voting Labour in the coming election, but not for Jeremy, more for the thought of the millions of people who are going to suffer under the coming five years of Tory rule: the working men and women who haven’t seen their wages rise, in real terms, for the last thirty years, while the fat cats, sharks and speculators are minted; the students starting out life saddled with debt; the millions who’ll never be able to afford a home; and in honour of the National Health Service, soon to be dismantled further, but remaining the brightest light in the nation’s modern history. What a rotten, unfair and unbalanced society we’ve become.
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:45 - Jun 6 by Hunterhoop
You think it'll be as high as that?
I think 30-50 seat majority.
But I do think it all depends on how successful Corbyn has been in swing seats and not preaching to the converted. That wouldn't be an issue with a better, fairer electoral system.
Sadly, I think the LDs may lose seats and end up with 7! Failure in SW London and SW England would mean Farron has to go (not necessarily a bad thing). Hopefully enough people will vote LD in the constituencies where it's a straight shoot out between them and The Tories. But I don't get that vibe.
If the Tories do get a majority, watch the boundary changes be pushed through pronto in the next term!
[Post edited 6 Jun 2017 15:48]
As robith says, a lot will depend on turnout.
Without having any insight into how the polling has been carried out, I just have a nasty feeling that most of the surge in Labour votes will be in safe-ish Labour seats anyway, winning 50% of the vote locally where 35% would do the job. And that the Tory marginals will stay as Tory marginals, and that here and there in England enough LD and Labour seats will topple to give them an increased majority.
Have to say, as someone who has always identified far more as anti-Tory more than loyally pro-Labour, your lot just feel irrelevant this time. I'm not far from SW London myself, and there is absolutely no conversation about the Lib Dems here.
Entertaining as the Tory keystone cops routine has been, in the end we're not far from where I expected it all to be when it was announced. Enough of the UKIP vote has gone to the Tories to shore them up even at this level of rank incompetence.
FWIW I do also honestly think in another 5 years the Tories will be wiped out for a generation, although what sort of state the country will be in by then doesn't really bear thinking about.
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:24 - Jun 6 with 2364 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:06 - Jun 6 by DannytheR
As robith says, a lot will depend on turnout.
Without having any insight into how the polling has been carried out, I just have a nasty feeling that most of the surge in Labour votes will be in safe-ish Labour seats anyway, winning 50% of the vote locally where 35% would do the job. And that the Tory marginals will stay as Tory marginals, and that here and there in England enough LD and Labour seats will topple to give them an increased majority.
Have to say, as someone who has always identified far more as anti-Tory more than loyally pro-Labour, your lot just feel irrelevant this time. I'm not far from SW London myself, and there is absolutely no conversation about the Lib Dems here.
Entertaining as the Tory keystone cops routine has been, in the end we're not far from where I expected it all to be when it was announced. Enough of the UKIP vote has gone to the Tories to shore them up even at this level of rank incompetence.
FWIW I do also honestly think in another 5 years the Tories will be wiped out for a generation, although what sort of state the country will be in by then doesn't really bear thinking about.
A lot of talk that Tory grandees beginning to be very nervous that they will get the blame for brexit turning out to be a shitfest- and then be gone for a long time a little like Fianna Fail got the blame for the crash in Ireland in 2008.
Apparently the dept for exiting the EU has as its most optimistic forecast GDP being lower than today in 10 years time. If that is true it would make current austerity look like childs play.
With my tin foil hat on and tuning in to the radio implanted by lizards in my teeth I could almost believe the Tories wanted to lose this one
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:29 - Jun 6 with 2348 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:24 - Jun 6 by Phildo
A lot of talk that Tory grandees beginning to be very nervous that they will get the blame for brexit turning out to be a shitfest- and then be gone for a long time a little like Fianna Fail got the blame for the crash in Ireland in 2008.
Apparently the dept for exiting the EU has as its most optimistic forecast GDP being lower than today in 10 years time. If that is true it would make current austerity look like childs play.
With my tin foil hat on and tuning in to the radio implanted by lizards in my teeth I could almost believe the Tories wanted to lose this one
There's an interesting contradiction in the party of capital (Conservatives) operating against the interests of capital by taking us out of Europe, and deeming it necessary to ramp up the pro-Brexit narrative. It'll be interesting to see if and how the Tories are punished.
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:36 - Jun 6 with 2326 views
I think we all know that May and the tories don't have a clue on how to handle Brexit at least half of them did not want to leave, the far right and ukip run the tories no matter what Essex or others say
It's not a matter of if it would be worse with Labour, how can it be worse anyway
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:24 - Jun 6 by Phildo
A lot of talk that Tory grandees beginning to be very nervous that they will get the blame for brexit turning out to be a shitfest- and then be gone for a long time a little like Fianna Fail got the blame for the crash in Ireland in 2008.
Apparently the dept for exiting the EU has as its most optimistic forecast GDP being lower than today in 10 years time. If that is true it would make current austerity look like childs play.
With my tin foil hat on and tuning in to the radio implanted by lizards in my teeth I could almost believe the Tories wanted to lose this one
Yeah, the big picture is that over time British politics has been much more about long-term cycles than individual elections - 18 years and four elections for the Tories, 13 years and three elections for Labour, now a third victory and at least 12 years for the Tories.
But five years from now, as you say, between what is looming economically and the votes of a whole generation who the Tories have genuinely given no stake in anything, I think they're properly done for.
[Post edited 6 Jun 2017 16:51]
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:52 - Jun 6 with 2276 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:06 - Jun 6 by DannytheR
As robith says, a lot will depend on turnout.
Without having any insight into how the polling has been carried out, I just have a nasty feeling that most of the surge in Labour votes will be in safe-ish Labour seats anyway, winning 50% of the vote locally where 35% would do the job. And that the Tory marginals will stay as Tory marginals, and that here and there in England enough LD and Labour seats will topple to give them an increased majority.
Have to say, as someone who has always identified far more as anti-Tory more than loyally pro-Labour, your lot just feel irrelevant this time. I'm not far from SW London myself, and there is absolutely no conversation about the Lib Dems here.
Entertaining as the Tory keystone cops routine has been, in the end we're not far from where I expected it all to be when it was announced. Enough of the UKIP vote has gone to the Tories to shore them up even at this level of rank incompetence.
FWIW I do also honestly think in another 5 years the Tories will be wiped out for a generation, although what sort of state the country will be in by then doesn't really bear thinking about.
I share the same concern about Labour's popular poll performance. I mentioned it a week or two back. The only real, big criticism I'd have of Labour's campaign. Preaching to the converted doesn't win you new seats.
However, big turnout, students registered at home, who knows. The terrorist attacks and the high risk "dementia tax" are also big unknowns in terms of how it plays out.
LDs have deliberately targeted far fewer seats than in previous decades. They're trying to focus resource on winnable seats and not spread themselves too thinly. Problem is, I don't think they've done enough to be in the public psyche.
Equally, I met one of the candidates a month back, and enquirer about the campaign strategy. Answer was, it''ll all be about Brexit and not be personal about the Tory candidates they're up against. Myself and another chap there said at the time we felt this wasn't the right approach. I can understand it, but I do worry it'll be proven to be wrong. Zac Goldsmith is neck and neck with Olney, for Christ's sake! You have to campaign on his "character" and lack of morals, rather than just Brexit. Anyway, we'll see. May's incompetence has been stunning. That has to have an impact.
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 17:21 - Jun 6 with 2208 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - Jun 6 by DannytheR
I think the Tories will win with an increased majority of 60-ish.
And then off we go straight into Brexit negotiations under a PM who just masterminded one of the worst electoral campaigns in modern political history, proving herself accident prone, indecisive and dishonest, with the country publicly tied to an America on its way to becoming an international pariah, and this as our global face:
[Post edited 6 Jun 2017 20:59]
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 21:41 - Jun 6 with 1862 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:50 - Jun 6 by DannytheR
Yeah, the big picture is that over time British politics has been much more about long-term cycles than individual elections - 18 years and four elections for the Tories, 13 years and three elections for Labour, now a third victory and at least 12 years for the Tories.
But five years from now, as you say, between what is looming economically and the votes of a whole generation who the Tories have genuinely given no stake in anything, I think they're properly done for.
[Post edited 6 Jun 2017 16:51]
The FTSE hasn't taken fright of Labours recent surge in the polls which suggests the Tories will almost certainly come in with a majority.
Long term agree with you, but for different reasons. By and large, Labour governments collapse when they've spent all the money and some and the public call on the Tories to bail them out. Once the Tories have put the finances back together the public tire of relative chastity and back come Labour.
However, best outcome for Labour would be an honourable defeat this time, they have a youth based support that will be predominant in the under 35's by 2022, Tory vote will be predominantly in retirement and 12 years is enough of any one party in charge.
The one thing no party takes on, the housing crisis. A new party with radical ideas on this could sweep all others aside 5 years from now.
1
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 22:39 - Jun 6 with 1778 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 21:41 - Jun 6 by stevec
The FTSE hasn't taken fright of Labours recent surge in the polls which suggests the Tories will almost certainly come in with a majority.
Long term agree with you, but for different reasons. By and large, Labour governments collapse when they've spent all the money and some and the public call on the Tories to bail them out. Once the Tories have put the finances back together the public tire of relative chastity and back come Labour.
However, best outcome for Labour would be an honourable defeat this time, they have a youth based support that will be predominant in the under 35's by 2022, Tory vote will be predominantly in retirement and 12 years is enough of any one party in charge.
The one thing no party takes on, the housing crisis. A new party with radical ideas on this could sweep all others aside 5 years from now.
Tell me how that the tories have sorted out the economy over the last 7 years?The debt is bigger than when they took over,so most people have have been squeezed dry for the square root of f@ck all.
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 22:41 - Jun 6 with 1775 views
If Jez flukes it (and I've just given Labour a tenner to support the cause), then he has to drop Abbott. She can't be Home Secretary. Emily Thornbury is the best person for that job.
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 23:13 - Jun 6 with 1720 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 22:39 - Jun 6 by stowmarketrange
Tell me how that the tories have sorted out the economy over the last 7 years?The debt is bigger than when they took over,so most people have have been squeezed dry for the square root of f@ck all.
And where has the money saved gone. A simple question to which you'll never get an answer.
Strong and stable my arse.
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On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 23:23 - Jun 6 with 1711 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 21:41 - Jun 6 by stevec
The FTSE hasn't taken fright of Labours recent surge in the polls which suggests the Tories will almost certainly come in with a majority.
Long term agree with you, but for different reasons. By and large, Labour governments collapse when they've spent all the money and some and the public call on the Tories to bail them out. Once the Tories have put the finances back together the public tire of relative chastity and back come Labour.
However, best outcome for Labour would be an honourable defeat this time, they have a youth based support that will be predominant in the under 35's by 2022, Tory vote will be predominantly in retirement and 12 years is enough of any one party in charge.
The one thing no party takes on, the housing crisis. A new party with radical ideas on this could sweep all others aside 5 years from now.
Well, let's raise a glass to our apparent common ground, although obviously I'm not going to agree with you about Labour governments "always" ending in financial collapse, or at least it not always being their responsibility. (Not as a party loyalist, I just don't think it's true/fair).
People of a certain age will always point to Callaghan and the IMF (the Scottish World Cup '78 of government debacles), but c'mon, you know and I know the problems with the British economy circa 2010 really had far more to do with Goldman Sachs and dodgy mortgages than Gordon Brown selling the gold (etc). Although I take your point that a lot of the British public *believed* it was Labour's fault (not helped by the brainless Harriet Harman letting the Tory line go unchallenged and appearing to apologise as caretaker leader post Brown).
Anyway, we agree at least/at last on the next five years being a poisoned chalice for whoever wins, and the fact that quite a lot of the Tory bedrock support will, bluntly, not see that many more elections.
And agree too about the housing crisis, which is going to poison the well more and more as things stand. It's hard to have a healthy property owning democracy in a country where most people won't ever be able to own property.
I do think it's interesting that even in these times of Britain taking back control, no party seems to have brought up the amount of property owned by overseas money, variously sitting doing nothing in someone's investment portfolio or being used to gouge rents out of the hardworking British public. (Although Labour have at least proposed building some new council flats, which would be a start...)
[Post edited 6 Jun 2017 23:25]
2
(No subject) (n/t) on 23:25 - Jun 6 with 1708 views
On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 21:41 - Jun 6 by stevec
The FTSE hasn't taken fright of Labours recent surge in the polls which suggests the Tories will almost certainly come in with a majority.
Long term agree with you, but for different reasons. By and large, Labour governments collapse when they've spent all the money and some and the public call on the Tories to bail them out. Once the Tories have put the finances back together the public tire of relative chastity and back come Labour.
However, best outcome for Labour would be an honourable defeat this time, they have a youth based support that will be predominant in the under 35's by 2022, Tory vote will be predominantly in retirement and 12 years is enough of any one party in charge.
The one thing no party takes on, the housing crisis. A new party with radical ideas on this could sweep all others aside 5 years from now.
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