Andy Hillman and professional odds compiler Owen Goulding are back to look ahead to QPR’s trip to Leeds, and value elsewhere on the weekend coupon.
A slightly truncated column this week, as a heavy social life takes its toll (I’m taking Clive to sing along to Celine Dion and Foreigner on Friday night...). An absolute blank last week, which was disappointing. I’m still yet to win a QPR related bet this season, as I seem to under-estimate QPR’s strength and over-estimate the opposition. Watch me do it again this week…
NAP of the week: Man City to win to nil @ 20/23
Yes, Man City shipped three against Cardiff; yes, they have lost Kompany for a month; and yes, Joe Hart's form is patchy at best - but they are pretty much invincible at home, and when they win at home, they usually win to nil. Near as dammit evens on a win to nil looks pretty generous to me.
QPR Related Bet: Match drawn @12/5
In the league at least, QPR (and the teams we're playing...) keep surprising me this season. I thought we'd draw with Bolton and we ground out a win. I thought Ipswich would be much more adventurous than they were too. Leeds normally get something from us, and Elland Road is a bit of a disaster for QPR, but I reckon we're good enough to get a point here.
Longshot Sunday doubles and trebles: West Brom vs Swansea, Liverpool vs Man U and Arsenal vs Spurs - all draws @ 42/1 for all three and 12/1 for the doubles.
Couple of tasty fixtures on Sunday, with plenty of potential for long odds draws. Liverpool vs Man U will be a tight affair, the north London derby promises a shit load of goals and a 2-2 or 3-3 draw, and West Brom vs Swansea has got draw written all over it. 42/1 for all three being draws, 12/1 for any two...
As always, let me know what your picks for the week are - you're probably all doing better than I am at the moment...
Previous Winners
NAP of the Week - Forest to beat Huddersfield @ 5/6 — 02/08/13
NAP of the Week - Bordeaux vs Monaco - Monaco to win @ 6/4, 09/08/13
NAP of the week: Monaco to Beat Montpellier @ 4/7, 15/08/13
QPR make their second lunchtime trip to the North to meet Leeds for another televised fixture. A few injury concerns for the Hoops, but Junior Hoilett is the only doubt who would command a place in the starting eleven, so I expect it to be as it was last week versus Bolton. An efficient display at the Reebok Stadium did the trick and it looks like there is some team spirit at last among the Rangers ranks.
They will need it as the go to Elland Road. Leeds have started the season well and like QPR are unbeaten in the league. In fact, they are unbeaten in all competitions after beating lower league opposition in the cup, something QPR have struggled with. The performance against Swindon lacked imagination and showed up a number of weaknesses - mainly in the support staff to the starting 11. The team on Saturday will look very different with Henry, Barton and O'Neill back in the engine room.
Leeds, as with any Brian McDermott side, will be well organised. A lot will depend on his team selection. Luke Varney will probably get the nod ahead of the exciting youngster Dominic Poleon - which can only be a good thing for QPR as I rate Poleon highly. Varney always seems to find teams willing to take him on board, yet five goals in his last 38 games for Leeds tells its own story - hardly prolific. Luke Murphy, Leeds main summer signing, will sit and spray the ball about from midfield if he is given time and space so I see the key battle in this one as the Barton-Murphy duel.
Joey will relish a game like this and for this reason I can see QPR getting something from this one. Jason Pearce has gone very close in recent weeks and will need keeping a very close eye on at set pieces but Dunne and Onuoha have looked very strong aerially in last few weeks so this threat should be snuffed out. An interesting fact for Leeds this season is they are slow starters: they have failed to score first in any of their league games this season and as such my bet for this game is QPR to score first at Even money (Bwin/Betfair).
Elsewhere, I was very impressed with Swindon's smash and grab the other night. They defended resolutely and Nile Ranger led the line superbly. It is probably a matter of time before he starts making headlines back on the front rather than back pages, but there is no denying when he is on his game, he is too good for League One level. As such, and while he is performing on the pitch rather than off it, he looks a great price at 11/2 each way to score first vs the defensively inept Crewe. The Railwaymen have conceded ten goals in their five games so far this season and if Ranger performs anything like he did the other evening, 11/2 seems a fantastic price.
Bet of the weekend - Nile Ranger First Goalscorer Each Way 11/2 (Paady Power/Skybet)
Previous Winners:
Benteke to score at any time v Arsenal at 11/4 (Coral/Skybet), 17/08/13
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