Twelve games into Pompey's season, and it would appear we've landed slap bang in the middle of relegation fight. Not what we wanted, not what many expected, I don't think, and not a very nice prospect for the long winter months ahead.
But for those of us who have been watching Pompey since the previous century, it's nothing new. This is my 22nd season of following Pompey in the second division – out of 44 following them overall. And a fair few of them have been season-long battles not to drop in the third.
In fact, three times in six seasons – between 95-96 and 00-01 – we needed to win on the final day in order to remain one division below the top one.
What upsets me a little, I have to admit, is the number of people already saying 'we're doomed or 'we're down' or 'we have to start rebuilding for League One next season now'. Not only is it far too early to write us off, it's not the Pompey way.
I am pretty sure the owners, manager, staff and players won't think the Championship battle is over already, and I don't understand why any Blues fans would feel that either.
We have played 12 games – we have 34 to go. So we are just over a quarter of the way through the campaign, and if in the past week we'd won one of the two games that have followed our sole victory to date, we would have started Saturday afternoon within three points of the lower-mid-table pack. We are not cut adrift; far from it.
That's not to say we should not be overly concerned about what we've seen so far and what lies ahead. One win fron 12 tells its own story. And the lack of any home win is particularly concerning – when was the last time we went into November without one? Must be decades ago, if it's ever happened at all. Last time we tasted victory at Fratton was some 3-2 win or other against Barnsley in mid-April.
So – two things. Who's to blame? And how do we get out of the sticky position we're in? There's already been plernty of debate about where fingers should point as Pompey struggle to stay afloat in the Championship, so soon after not just getting promoted but being head and shoulders above the rest in League One.
I've seen polls asking whether the blame lies at the feet of the owners, the chief exec, the recruitment team, the manager or the players – and more than a few replies have been along the lines of 'you can blame all parties to an extent'.
My own view on the squad is that we let too many go before knowing who we could bring in. I know you sometimes have to release in order to recruit but I was uneasy about the club not offering Joe Rafferty a new deal and sorting out something with Joe Morrell. Right now, I think an increasing number of fans might think we'd have been wise to keep Sean Raggett and even Jack Sparkes too. What we'd give now for an 89th minute Sparkes corner landed right on Conor Shaughnessy's bonce.
But let them go we did, and after initial concern at slow progress in the market, I think most fans were reasonably happy when the new faces did start to arrive. And by the very end of the window, most seemed content with the quality and quantity brought in – the major misgivinig in the fanbase probably being that not one of the four loanees who'd played a part last season (Robertson, Kamara, Anjorin and Peart-Harris) had been lured back, despite attempts to get at least one or two of them to return. Getting any of them would have been a positive, but it didn't happen.
Pompey did the same in 1987 – looked at the squad who'd won promotion to the first division, got rid of three or four they thought might not make the step up, and replaced them with gambles – players who might have been better than those they'd replaced but weren't, something which became obviously very quickly in that ill-fated top flight season.
Back to 2024 and oddly, when the window shut, I did worry at one stage we had too many players – and I do still think that might be an issue. John Mousinho can't possibly keep all his wingers and midfielders happy and reasonably match-sharp, and I wonder if the number of players in those positions at his disposal might have sewn the seeds of uncertainty in his own mind about what is his best formation, blend and line-up.
Twelve games in, I think it's safe to say few of the summer signings have impressed. There have been some good games for Jordan Williams, spells of quality from Freddie Potts, plenty of promise, without much end product yet, from Josh Murphy, and a couple of goals and lots of effort up front from Mark O'Mahony.
Beyond that, it's hard to pick out much that's made a difference among the new recruits. Elias Sorsensen tantalised us with a fine finish in the first half of the first game at Leeds but has done little since to suggest he can become a key player. Sammy Silvera clearly has talent but has yet to turn it into anything of much use, and Matt Ritchie has been a major disappointment.
Abdou Kamara looked very good the first time we saw him – in a losing cause against Sunderland – but has barely been seen since, while the likes of Harvey Blair and Andre Dozzell have been in and out and look poor replacements so far for those who places they have taken in rhe squad.
All of that would suggest sub-standard recruitment – which is a surprise given how well we bought last summer and again in January. Without knowing exactly who does what in the 'scouting' department, how many people have input and how much sway, for example, Mousinho's views hold in who he wants on the payroll, it is hard to conclude as to what's gone awry. But fingers will inevitably point at Rich Hughes and he will know he has a hell of a Jaunary window ahead of him to silence his new doubters.
What about the owners? We've seen both the manager and Andy Cullen state publicly that the playing budget has more than doubled (though whether they are saying it has more than doubled between last season and this, I am not certain). If it has, that does not sound to me like the size of the budget is to blame. But if the owners have kept the purse strings tighter than those advising them would have wanted to see in pulling together a competitive Championship squad, then it's only right the brickbats are going in their direction too. Brickbat by brickbat, you might say.
Michael Eisner said many times on the slow road out of the League One he didn't want Pompey to be promoted before they could be sure they wouldn't come back down. Some fans, impatient though they were to leave the third tier behind, probably accepted that, safe in the knowledge that once promotion was assured, mid-table status in the Championship would be the least we could expect. I'd put myself in that bracket actually. I had faith in what the chairman was saying, even if I did not think it should have taken us so long to get out of League One.
I wonder what Eiser senior thinks now. Does he still think Pompey are certain not to go back down? And if so, on what does he base that belief? I hope at least one of those who has access to him over the next few weeks puts him on the spot with that.
Continuing the 'who's to blame' theory, there's the question of players and the manager. Are the players operating to the best of their ability? I think some probably are all the time, and all are some of the time. But there have certainly been games where it's not felt like the team – as a team – have been straining every sinew. That has to change. I think we have many players who are good enough for the Championship – but I think the percentage in the squad who are not up to it is a little too high.
The manager can only operate with what he's got and we will never know what he is seeing in training that governs his team selection and even his use of subs. But there have been games where I have felt he is not in anything like the sort of calm control we saw from him last season.
Perhaps the step up from division three to two is bigger than he anticipated. Remember, he is still not two years into his career as a manager. And there is absolutely no way he should be under pressure of the sack. I don't think that is in the club's thoughts, and nor should it be, in my opinion. I'm confident the vast majority of fans would agree.
What you can't get away from is that we have had terrible luck with injuries. All teams get them but I am certain we've suffered worse-than-average fortune.
The biggest loss of all? Colby Bishop. That was a blow that came from nowhere Had he been in the team in these first 12 games, there's no doubt in my mind we'd been several points better off. He'd have poked in two or three goals himself and created openings for others, surely.
The second biggest loss? Shaughnessy, in my opinion. A tower of strength at the back and a genuine threat at set-pieces at the other end. It's been an eye-opener to see Regan Poole and Tom McIntyre come back into the centre of defence together and struggle to find the form that almost all of us were convinced we'd see from them.
We can only hope their partnership gets stronger as they got more post-injury minutes in the tank. But for me, as soon as Shocks is fit, he walks back into the middle of that defence, probably alongside Poole. And when that happens, will McIntyre be an option at left-back if we continue to struggle on that side?
Futrther forward, Callum Lang is the star of the season so far and should be the first attacking name on the teamsheet every week. He makes things happen, and boy, do we need more things to happen at that end of the field. The manager should build his front six around him.
Marlon Pack, of course, has been the other name on many fans' lips. After an outstanding promotion campaign as captain and the man who made the Blues tick in so many games, he has struggled to make the step up. But he has not become a bad player overnight – it seems to be a classic case of a player dropping his levels because the team he is in have dropped their levels. And perhaps there's an element of vice-versa too – are Pompey struggling partly because he's struggling?
I'd like to see an extra man in midfield to take some of the pressure off him. How would Pack, Potts and Owen Moxon work together? Either with two wide men and a No9 ahead of them, or one wide, a No10 and a No9. Lang, Murphy (or Christian Saydee) and O'Mahony in front of those three? Got to be worth a go.
In terms of recruitment, Hughes and Co will already be working on what and who they need to add, hopefully with the full, unequivocal support of the owners, in January. And I firmly believe the first player they should be looking to tie down is already around the place – the aforementioned Morrell.
Has everyone forgotten how good he was when fit last season? I'd rate him as capable of better than we have seen so far from every single midfielder on our books. I am not privy to the dicsussions that went on with him before Pompey said he'd not be staying – there may have been reticence on his part as well as the club's – but things have moved on since then. Offer him a fair deal, get him fit, and let's see him back on the pitch on January 1.
Hopefully, on that day or soon after it, we'll see the Magic Man who wears a Magic Hat back in his rightful place too. Progress reports on his recovery have been encouraging and we must hope those continue. And at the other end, by then, we must hope Shaughnessy will have been back in the side for a good few weeks.
Goodness knows who'll be in goal by then - we will probably be on our fifth stopper of the season.
The other hope for January 1 is that we're still in touch with the pack and not adrift in 24th,, nor part of a bottom three who are getting left behind.
We are exactly halfway through the 2024 section of this league season – there are 12 games to come between now and December 31. That's 36 points to play – and this next chunk of matches need to bring many more than the eight points accrued so far. Eighteen wouldn't be bad a return. Six wins from those 12? Or five wins and three draws?
There are tough battles ahead, but if you're saying we're doomed already, I'm afraid I'm not listening.