| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 513723 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:10 - Mar 13 with 2440 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 13:01 - Mar 13 by Thrasher6 |
From the CDC, and I quote....about the 2018/2019 Flu season....
"Even still, high early-season vaccination rates and a relatively effective annual vaccine appeared to help suppress illnesses. In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."
Full article here
https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/ |
Yes, now add COV19 on top of those figures. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:22 - Mar 13 with 2410 views | A_Fans_Dad |
So, today we see the real plan, they want 60% of the population to catch it to build up "herd immunity".
Just how callous can you get.
Over 36 million ill people and based on their own 1% death rate 360000 dead. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:24 - Mar 13 with 2401 views | Ebo |
| Corona Virus on 12:27 - Mar 13 by londonlisa2001 |
You can’t just say ‘get tested’. No one can ring up and ask for a test unless they meet certain criteria. |
There is a drive though testing place off the M4. You can just drive in |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:25 - Mar 13 with 2397 views | Ebo |
| Corona Virus on 13:07 - Mar 13 by Thebus |
Typical snowflake. |
And you are the the typical know it all | |
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| Corona Virus on 13:27 - Mar 13 with 2392 views | Scotia |
| Corona Virus on 13:22 - Mar 13 by A_Fans_Dad |
So, today we see the real plan, they want 60% of the population to catch it to build up "herd immunity".
Just how callous can you get.
Over 36 million ill people and based on their own 1% death rate 360000 dead. |
Not if the 60 % are not vulnerable. The mortality rate would be much smaller.
Personally I would volunteer to be one of the 60%. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:27 - Mar 13 with 2392 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 13:24 - Mar 13 by Ebo |
There is a drive though testing place off the M4. You can just drive in |
Are you certain? We have drive through testing in London. You can’t just rock up and they’ll test you. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:27 - Mar 13 with 2391 views | Neath_Jack |
| Corona Virus on 13:24 - Mar 13 by Ebo |
There is a drive though testing place off the M4. You can just drive in |
You absolutely can’t. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:28 - Mar 13 with 2383 views | Ebo |
| Corona Virus on 13:27 - Mar 13 by Neath_Jack |
You absolutely can’t. |
He just rang 111 and has an appointment to go there | |
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| Corona Virus on 13:28 - Mar 13 with 2381 views | Neath_Jack |
| Corona Virus on 13:27 - Mar 13 by londonlisa2001 |
Are you certain? We have drive through testing in London. You can’t just rock up and they’ll test you. |
He’s wrong.
The place is about a quarter of a mile from my office. | |
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| Corona Virus on 13:30 - Mar 13 with 2374 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 13:27 - Mar 13 by Scotia |
Not if the 60 % are not vulnerable. The mortality rate would be much smaller.
Personally I would volunteer to be one of the 60%. |
Exactly! That’s the bit everyone seems to be missing.
They want the healthiest, least at risk, 60% to get it to protect the most vulnerable. The 1% is over the whole population. They thinks it’s loads less (0.1% type numbers) for the young, healthy ones.
This is all about death numbers rather than infection numbers. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:43 - Mar 13 with 2322 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 13:30 - Mar 13 by londonlisa2001 |
Exactly! That’s the bit everyone seems to be missing.
They want the healthiest, least at risk, 60% to get it to protect the most vulnerable. The 1% is over the whole population. They thinks it’s loads less (0.1% type numbers) for the young, healthy ones.
This is all about death numbers rather than infection numbers. |
Which is the theory. 60% is a very low threshold for her immunity. I think over 80% may be needed for this. At least the R0 is fairly low. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:48 - Mar 13 with 2300 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 13:43 - Mar 13 by Professor |
Which is the theory. 60% is a very low threshold for her immunity. I think over 80% may be needed for this. At least the R0 is fairly low. |
As I’ve said before, I have no idea.
But I can sort of see their point.
If it was up to me I’d have everyone I know stay inside for 6 months until they have a vaccine or treatment. But these guys seem to have significant expertise.
It’s a hell of a risk. But their whole strategy seems to be protecting older people and those most at risk while almost wanting it to spread in younger people and kids. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:50 - Mar 13 with 2285 views | Cooperman |
| Corona Virus on 13:48 - Mar 13 by londonlisa2001 |
As I’ve said before, I have no idea.
But I can sort of see their point.
If it was up to me I’d have everyone I know stay inside for 6 months until they have a vaccine or treatment. But these guys seem to have significant expertise.
It’s a hell of a risk. But their whole strategy seems to be protecting older people and those most at risk while almost wanting it to spread in younger people and kids. |
I’m with you on this. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:55 - Mar 13 with 2269 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 13:50 - Mar 13 by Cooperman |
I’m with you on this. |
I agree with both of you. My view is that this is too great a risk. It is a game of roulette with lives. I hope I am wrong, but history of mathematical predictions in infectious disease is actually pretty poor. Leads to fancy 'Nature' papers but rarely bears out- FMD in 2001 and the FSA strategy on Campylobacter control have relied on models which ultimately were unreliable. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:59 - Mar 13 with 2258 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 13:55 - Mar 13 by Professor |
I agree with both of you. My view is that this is too great a risk. It is a game of roulette with lives. I hope I am wrong, but history of mathematical predictions in infectious disease is actually pretty poor. Leads to fancy 'Nature' papers but rarely bears out- FMD in 2001 and the FSA strategy on Campylobacter control have relied on models which ultimately were unreliable. |
The problem is that there isn’t an alternative strategy which will work either though.
If they shut the country down now for 3 months what will they do come October? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:18 - Mar 13 with 2235 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 13:59 - Mar 13 by londonlisa2001 |
The problem is that there isn’t an alternative strategy which will work either though.
If they shut the country down now for 3 months what will they do come October? |
On that point, yes, we are going to have a lot of infected people. I still worry an early peak will lead to more mortality. There is no easy answer. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:32 - Mar 13 with 2200 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 14:18 - Mar 13 by Professor |
On that point, yes, we are going to have a lot of infected people. I still worry an early peak will lead to more mortality. There is no easy answer. |
No easy answers indeed, part of the picture is this is worldwide and if you "close the doors" for a while you may have another problem when you "open them". |  |
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| Corona Virus on 15:15 - Mar 13 with 2154 views | CountyJim |
I was planning on seeing the Stereophonics this weekend that got to be in doubt |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:22 - Mar 13 with 2132 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 13:22 - Mar 13 by A_Fans_Dad |
So, today we see the real plan, they want 60% of the population to catch it to build up "herd immunity".
Just how callous can you get.
Over 36 million ill people and based on their own 1% death rate 360000 dead. |
Most people suffer mild symptoms and that will build up a resistance in the general population.
That is a good thing.
Who exactly is being callous ? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:37 - Mar 13 with 2107 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 15:22 - Mar 13 by Thebus |
Most people suffer mild symptoms and that will build up a resistance in the general population.
That is a good thing.
Who exactly is being callous ? |
Most. Not all or anywhere close to that. I would suggest ,
As an asthmatic,
My chances of dying if infected are in the region of 1 in 25 | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:49 - Mar 13 with 2078 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 15:22 - Mar 13 by Thebus |
Most people suffer mild symptoms and that will build up a resistance in the general population.
That is a good thing.
Who exactly is being callous ? |
You as well as them if you think that 360,000 dead is a reasonable price to pay to get herd immunity.
That is their own figure, it could be less and it could also be a lot more.
For every one of those 360,000 that will probably die in an intensive care bed there will be 360,000 other extremely ill people who won't have an intensive care bed.
All those who have a bad case of the Flu, heart attacks, strokes, car accidents or need major operations like cancer victims.
You do understand that unlike most illnesses where the IC bed is usually only needed for short periods, it can be needed for weeks for COV19 patients?
Have you read about it's affect on the Italian NHS? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:24 - Mar 13 with 2022 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 14:18 - Mar 13 by Professor |
On that point, yes, we are going to have a lot of infected people. I still worry an early peak will lead to more mortality. There is no easy answer. |
I agree. But they’re trying to delay the peak of elderly and at risk patients by, for example, keeping schools open (less kids with grandparents).
There’s a lot of talk about us doing it differently. We are taking the same approach as Germany who are also talking 70% infection. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:27 - Mar 13 with 2008 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 15:49 - Mar 13 by A_Fans_Dad |
You as well as them if you think that 360,000 dead is a reasonable price to pay to get herd immunity.
That is their own figure, it could be less and it could also be a lot more.
For every one of those 360,000 that will probably die in an intensive care bed there will be 360,000 other extremely ill people who won't have an intensive care bed.
All those who have a bad case of the Flu, heart attacks, strokes, car accidents or need major operations like cancer victims.
You do understand that unlike most illnesses where the IC bed is usually only needed for short periods, it can be needed for weeks for COV19 patients?
Have you read about it's affect on the Italian NHS? |
They’re not expecting that number.
That’s an extrapolation of assuming the 60% is evenly spread. They are trying to skew it to younger people getting it to protect older people.
Everyone is reading exactly the same stuff. You’re not seeing anything different. And they are seeing massive amounts more, in more detail, with more splits, more explanations, more modelling, more advice. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:33 - Mar 13 with 1988 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 16:27 - Mar 13 by londonlisa2001 |
They’re not expecting that number.
That’s an extrapolation of assuming the 60% is evenly spread. They are trying to skew it to younger people getting it to protect older people.
Everyone is reading exactly the same stuff. You’re not seeing anything different. And they are seeing massive amounts more, in more detail, with more splits, more explanations, more modelling, more advice. |
...........and more information from around the world.
One positive thing about having a plan and a model is that you can see when its not going to plan and change your actions. | |
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| Corona Virus on 16:42 - Mar 13 with 1972 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 15:22 - Mar 13 by Thebus |
Most people suffer mild symptoms and that will build up a resistance in the general population.
That is a good thing.
Who exactly is being callous ? |
When you play the numbers game it is inevitably callous because you are accepting a large number of deaths as being acceptable. Most people might agree that risking 36000 lives would be acceptable if it saved hundreds of thousands.
The numbers game is what the NHS has been playing for years, like when N.I.C.E looks at a medicine and says it's not finncially viable or turns down individuals for treatment because the cost outweighs the benefit, it sounds a lot better in a far removed office than it does when the medical staff has to tell the famly involved. | |
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