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I just read that Italy has had 1000 deaths from 15000 cases, and 1153 in intensive care. That’s real figures isn’t it? From a comparable country. I think 1% is looking a bit optimistic based on that.
It’s not though is it.
If we are reporting c. 500 cases and the ‘real figure’ is between 5,000 and 10,000, the same is happening in Italy.
Mild cases are simply not being reported. Korea is the only country testing absolutely everyone and they are seeing 0.6% or so. Some more that are serious will die, pushing that up, but in Italy at present total cases are understated. When one of the recent viruses (swine flu possible, but not sure) started, they thought it had a rate of c.4.5%. When it had all come and gone, the actual rate was c.0.5%.
Well that would depend on whether they actually believe what they are saying and are too thick to work out the statistics for themselves, or just outright lying. Any idea which it is?
Oh dear God.
They are obviously making a call, and they may be right or wrong, but the CMO for England (and de facto the UK) is a world expert on infectious diseases. You think he can’t do a sum?
If we are reporting c. 500 cases and the ‘real figure’ is between 5,000 and 10,000, the same is happening in Italy.
Mild cases are simply not being reported. Korea is the only country testing absolutely everyone and they are seeing 0.6% or so. Some more that are serious will die, pushing that up, but in Italy at present total cases are understated. When one of the recent viruses (swine flu possible, but not sure) started, they thought it had a rate of c.4.5%. When it had all come and gone, the actual rate was c.0.5%.
Yes, our system sends people at low risk home to self isolate without testing so our figures are by design pessimistic, as you say this will be similar in some other counties, but it is difficult to tell who exactly is doing what South Korea seem to have a robust system the USA is an uncoordinated mess.
They are obviously making a call, and they may be right or wrong, but the CMO for England (and de facto the UK) is a world expert on infectious diseases. You think he can’t do a sum?
Well let me ask you if you think that his advice to Johnson and the public is good advice. Do you think that the Government has done a good job based on that advice?
If we are reporting c. 500 cases and the ‘real figure’ is between 5,000 and 10,000, the same is happening in Italy.
Mild cases are simply not being reported. Korea is the only country testing absolutely everyone and they are seeing 0.6% or so. Some more that are serious will die, pushing that up, but in Italy at present total cases are understated. When one of the recent viruses (swine flu possible, but not sure) started, they thought it had a rate of c.4.5%. When it had all come and gone, the actual rate was c.0.5%.
Going by what you say about Korea, then it's our best model as to true numbers of infection and mortality rates. How the rate of infection can be controlled is still novel to all nations suffering from this contagion.
Well let me ask you if you think that his advice to Johnson and the public is good advice. Do you think that the Government has done a good job based on that advice?
How the absolute hell do I know? Or you?
I have little time for a Johnson, as has been made obvious, but he is refusing to bow to political pressure and is following the advice of the experts. Which is brave. Whether correct or not.
Let’s have a look at their CVs - the CMO and CSA.
CMO - “ Professor of Public and International Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, a practising NHS Consultant Physician in acute medicine and infectious diseases at University College London Hospitals, and Gresham Professor of Physic.”
CSA - “ Patrick was President, R&D at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) from 2012 until 2017. Prior to this, he was Senior Vice President, Medicines Discovery and Development. He joined the company in May 2006 as Head of Drug Discovery. He was a member of the GSK Board and the Corporate Executive Team. During his period as head of R&D over 14 new medicines were approved for use worldwide, for diseases ranging from cancer to asthma and HIV.
Prior to joining GSK, he was a clinical academic, Professor of Medicine and led the Division of Medicine at UCL. He has over 20 years’ experience of basic and clinical research, and was a consultant physician in the NHS. His research spanned from work on medicinal chemistry and structural biology, through to cellular work, studies in humans and use of large electronic health record databases.”
I am an accountant and you worked for Ford as an engineer (I think). I think we should listen to these guys.
I have little time for a Johnson, as has been made obvious, but he is refusing to bow to political pressure and is following the advice of the experts. Which is brave. Whether correct or not.
Let’s have a look at their CVs - the CMO and CSA.
CMO - “ Professor of Public and International Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, a practising NHS Consultant Physician in acute medicine and infectious diseases at University College London Hospitals, and Gresham Professor of Physic.”
CSA - “ Patrick was President, R&D at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) from 2012 until 2017. Prior to this, he was Senior Vice President, Medicines Discovery and Development. He joined the company in May 2006 as Head of Drug Discovery. He was a member of the GSK Board and the Corporate Executive Team. During his period as head of R&D over 14 new medicines were approved for use worldwide, for diseases ranging from cancer to asthma and HIV.
Prior to joining GSK, he was a clinical academic, Professor of Medicine and led the Division of Medicine at UCL. He has over 20 years’ experience of basic and clinical research, and was a consultant physician in the NHS. His research spanned from work on medicinal chemistry and structural biology, through to cellular work, studies in humans and use of large electronic health record databases.”
I am an accountant and you worked for Ford as an engineer (I think). I think we should listen to these guys.
[Post edited 12 Mar 2020 21:59]
I know you believe what so called experts tell you. But in this both they and Johson have got it completely wrong. That CMO didn't even get the hard surface residence time correct or that it was infectious without symptoms or the correct containment period. This was new to him and he should have spent more time looking at what was going on elsewhere and relied less on his extensive knowledge. Johnson has not "contained" the virus at all apart from those people from the cruise ship. Everybody else, regardless of where they have come from, whether from the most contagious places of all have just been allowed to waltz in to this country and spread it as much as they liked. They appear to have very little real understanding of what quarantine is all about. They may be "experts" but their common sense is sadly lacking, you believe them and I won't.
I know you believe what so called experts tell you. But in this both they and Johson have got it completely wrong. That CMO didn't even get the hard surface residence time correct or that it was infectious without symptoms or the correct containment period. This was new to him and he should have spent more time looking at what was going on elsewhere and relied less on his extensive knowledge. Johnson has not "contained" the virus at all apart from those people from the cruise ship. Everybody else, regardless of where they have come from, whether from the most contagious places of all have just been allowed to waltz in to this country and spread it as much as they liked. They appear to have very little real understanding of what quarantine is all about. They may be "experts" but their common sense is sadly lacking, you believe them and I won't.
They are taking a massive gamble, and the worst of it, it's with people's lives.. Pussy footing around, going against a lot of peoples opinions, I hope these chumps are held accountable for their actions. I really hope and pray they are right, but something tells me, they are way off the mark.
I know you believe what so called experts tell you. But in this both they and Johson have got it completely wrong. That CMO didn't even get the hard surface residence time correct or that it was infectious without symptoms or the correct containment period. This was new to him and he should have spent more time looking at what was going on elsewhere and relied less on his extensive knowledge. Johnson has not "contained" the virus at all apart from those people from the cruise ship. Everybody else, regardless of where they have come from, whether from the most contagious places of all have just been allowed to waltz in to this country and spread it as much as they liked. They appear to have very little real understanding of what quarantine is all about. They may be "experts" but their common sense is sadly lacking, you believe them and I won't.
It’s not a case of I believe them and you don’t. I have no idea whether they are right or not. And neither do you.
I just have no idea what we do other than believe them.
I do know that the CMO knows more than either of us.
And the knowledge on stuff like symptoms, when people are infectious or not and containment is changing daily.
A few weeks ago they swore blind that it could be passed on by asymptomatic people. Now they know that’s untrue.
If you believe that isolation is best then isolate.
None of us know. We can only do what we think best.
But please don’t assume that a few hours on the Internet means you have any idea whatsoever.
This 7 day isolate yourself if you have a new cough/high temp will be abused by the under 25's.....it'll be left to the "old school" to keep everything going.
This 7 day isolate yourself if you have a new cough/high temp will be abused by the under 25's.....it'll be left to the "old school" to keep everything going.
FFS
Lots of people regardless of age will just carry on, some just don't give a fck, and the rest will not believe they have it.
This 7 day isolate yourself if you have a new cough/high temp will be abused by the under 25's.....it'll be left to the "old school" to keep everything going.
FFS
Clearly the remainer demographic. Work shy malingering buggers.
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Exactly, it's meaningless now as most are all "wound up" and more concerned in stocking up on pasta and tinned items. There will be the "couldn't give a toss as I've no symptoms" brigade.
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