| Chance to catch Southampton 11:08 - Nov 25 with 12453 views | Parlay |
With us potentially being able to get back into the top 4 with a win against Palace on the weekend, i had a look at Southampton's next few fixtures as they seem to be occupying a false position in 2nd place and MUST have some hard games approaching, it seems they do.
Man City (h)
Arsenal (a)
Man Utd (h)
They are currently 8 points ahead of us so id like to make at least 5 points of that up in the next 3 games leaving us within one game striking distance, we have:-
Palace (h)
QPR (h)
West Ham (a)
Its a decent sized ask but we could seriously be going into the new year occupying a Champions League place. What a great season so far. |  |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 11:17 - Nov 25 with 5924 views | deanscfc |
Nice idea but if only it were so simple. I expected us to do better against Sunderland (who were the better team), Newcastle and Stoke.. but it often doesn't work out that way. 5-6 points from those games would be a good return and if we can get more then great. |  | | |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 11:29 - Nov 25 with 5900 views | stevethejack |
Southampton are indeed in a false position.
They have had an extremely easy start to the season, and played West Ham & Newcastle early before they found any form. Played against us having 10 men for over 50 minutes, and losing to Spurs (in 10th). Every other games have been against teams in the bottom half of the table.
August
Liverpool 2-1 Southampton
Southampton 0-0 West Brom
West Ham 1-3 Southampton
September
Southampton 4-0 Newcastle
Swansea 0-1 Southampton
Southampton 2-1 QPR
October 2014
Tottenham 1-0 Southampton
Southampton 8-0 Sunderland
Southampton 1-0 Stoke
November 2014
Hull 0-1 Southampton
Southampton 2-0 Leicester
Aston Villa 1-1 Southampton [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 11:34]
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 12:10 - Nov 25 with 5845 views | LeonisGod |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 11:29 - Nov 25 by stevethejack |
Southampton are indeed in a false position.
They have had an extremely easy start to the season, and played West Ham & Newcastle early before they found any form. Played against us having 10 men for over 50 minutes, and losing to Spurs (in 10th). Every other games have been against teams in the bottom half of the table.
August
Liverpool 2-1 Southampton
Southampton 0-0 West Brom
West Ham 1-3 Southampton
September
Southampton 4-0 Newcastle
Swansea 0-1 Southampton
Southampton 2-1 QPR
October 2014
Tottenham 1-0 Southampton
Southampton 8-0 Sunderland
Southampton 1-0 Stoke
November 2014
Hull 0-1 Southampton
Southampton 2-0 Leicester
Aston Villa 1-1 Southampton [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 11:34]
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They've still got to win them though. We dropped points against Stoke, Newcastle, Sunderland in that period whereas they bagged 9 points against them. |  | | |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 12:57 - Nov 25 with 5758 views | SwansEvents |
They have played the least amount of games against the top 10 (only 4).
Tottenham and Liverpool being the only two "big" clubs they have played... and lost both. | | | |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:13 - Nov 25 with 5722 views | C_jack |
You could argue every position is false 12 games in,including ours. Very hypocritical to suggest that we are up there on merit, but a team 8 points ahead of us, are not. |  |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:22 - Nov 25 with 5695 views | Parlay |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:13 - Nov 25 by C_jack |
You could argue every position is false 12 games in,including ours. Very hypocritical to suggest that we are up there on merit, but a team 8 points ahead of us, are not. |
If we say Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Everton are the big hitters in this league. They make up 33% of the league. In order to have played your fair share of these teams to represent your position you would need to have played 4 of them after 12 games.
We have played Man City, Man United, Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea = 5 or 41.6% of our games.
They have played Liverpool and Tottenham - 2 or 24% of their games, which is an abnormally small amount of the big hitters not only that but amongst the weakest of this seasons big hitters.
We currently occupy 7th not to dissimilar to where we finished in our last non european affected season (9th) and have improved on that squad markedly so its quite different to suggest Southampton in second is a false position while we, are not. [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 13:27]
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:31 - Nov 25 with 5648 views | MrSwan |
we are a much better team than Southampton we have had some tough games and still only just trailing behind them and we gave the a battering and should have won when we played them and were screwed out of that one aswel. | |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:36 - Nov 25 with 5649 views | C_jack |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:22 - Nov 25 by Parlay |
If we say Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Everton are the big hitters in this league. They make up 33% of the league. In order to have played your fair share of these teams to represent your position you would need to have played 4 of them after 12 games.
We have played Man City, Man United, Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea = 5 or 41.6% of our games.
They have played Liverpool and Tottenham - 2 or 24% of their games, which is an abnormally small amount of the big hitters not only that but amongst the weakest of this seasons big hitters.
We currently occupy 7th not to dissimilar to where we finished in our last non european affected season (9th) and have improved on that squad markedly so its quite different to suggest Southampton in second is a false position while we, are not. [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 13:27]
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And all that inane claptrap means nothing, because it's not how football works. According to you the favourite always wins.
Are Stoke in a false position because they beat MC at the Etihad? | |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:37 - Nov 25 with 5642 views | skippyjack |
Liverpool have lost against.. Villa, West Ham, Palace and Newcastle..
Spurs have lost against Stoke, West Brom and Newcastle
Southampton have scored 24 goals (joint second).. they've conceded 6 (first).. they've won 8.. more than any other club except Chelsea.. they've got the 2nd best GD in the league.. they've lost 2 games.. only Chelsea can better that.. they're deservedly 2nd.. the only thing that's false is parlays assumption.. they will probably lose at some point in the next 3 fixtures.. but false?... Southampton are there on merit..
Nathaniel Clyne and Pelle have been exceptional.. Tadic has been buy of the season.. these 3 have performed better than our players.. Wanyama and Tadic compliment each other incredibly.. they read the game exceptionally.. the Saints are better than us.. Will it change? Only if we improve.. |  |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:44 - Nov 25 with 5621 views | Parlay |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:36 - Nov 25 by C_jack |
And all that inane claptrap means nothing, because it's not how football works. According to you the favourite always wins.
Are Stoke in a false position because they beat MC at the Etihad? |
Its not "inane claptrap" young man its exactly how it works, apologies if it is too complex. Where do you get "the favourite always wins" from? Ive not suggested that at all.
Its fairly straight forward to suggest that if 41% of your games are against the top 7 then your chance to amass points is an awful lot less than if only 24% of your matches are.
As I've explained after 12 games a normal % of your matches against these big guns should be in the mid thirties. Ours is 41% and Southampton's is 24%. As a result of that their next 3 matches are against Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd.
So what you are saying is they should continue to pick up points at the same rate against their next 3 opponents - want a bet that they wont? 
I don't see how you can make a case that Swansea occupy a false position as ww have played more than our fair share of big guns and got a load of points off them, not to mention our position being similar to a position we finished in 2 seasons ago with a far worse squad.
**I think you have done what you usually do and jumped in without thinking here. But i will by all means hear your theory as to why we occupy a false position or why indeed you dont think Southampton do and as a result expect them to be there or there abouts come seasons end.**
** - important, do not ignore. this is the part that continues the debate for the benefit of the thread. Thanks in advance. | |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:50 - Nov 25 with 5602 views | Parlay |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:37 - Nov 25 by skippyjack |
Liverpool have lost against.. Villa, West Ham, Palace and Newcastle..
Spurs have lost against Stoke, West Brom and Newcastle
Southampton have scored 24 goals (joint second).. they've conceded 6 (first).. they've won 8.. more than any other club except Chelsea.. they've got the 2nd best GD in the league.. they've lost 2 games.. only Chelsea can better that.. they're deservedly 2nd.. the only thing that's false is parlays assumption.. they will probably lose at some point in the next 3 fixtures.. but false?... Southampton are there on merit..
Nathaniel Clyne and Pelle have been exceptional.. Tadic has been buy of the season.. these 3 have performed better than our players.. Wanyama and Tadic compliment each other incredibly.. they read the game exceptionally.. the Saints are better than us.. Will it change? Only if we improve.. |
Nobody is saying they are not a good team. What is being said is they are not the 2nd best team in the league and are there due to an exceptionally kind fixture list to date which is about to be rectified by a run of 3 very hard matches.
Do you think they have a cat in hells chance of finishing runners up this season? If not then they are in a false position. Yes they are there on merit and you can only beat what is in front of you but their fixture spectrum has nit given a fair representation on the league thus far.
Can I see us finishing 7th? Absolutely can.
If you swapped our fixtures against Chelsea, Man City and Everton with matches against Aston Villa, WBA and QPR do you think we would have faired better and thus been even higher in the league? Yes is the obvious answer.
But would you think our position would then be somewhat compromised when we then as a result have to face Man City, Chelsea and Everton one after another. Yes again is the other obvious answer.
That is all that is being said here. [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 13:54]
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 14:12 - Nov 25 with 5561 views | C_jack |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:44 - Nov 25 by Parlay |
Its not "inane claptrap" young man its exactly how it works, apologies if it is too complex. Where do you get "the favourite always wins" from? Ive not suggested that at all.
Its fairly straight forward to suggest that if 41% of your games are against the top 7 then your chance to amass points is an awful lot less than if only 24% of your matches are.
As I've explained after 12 games a normal % of your matches against these big guns should be in the mid thirties. Ours is 41% and Southampton's is 24%. As a result of that their next 3 matches are against Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd.
So what you are saying is they should continue to pick up points at the same rate against their next 3 opponents - want a bet that they wont?
I don't see how you can make a case that Swansea occupy a false position as ww have played more than our fair share of big guns and got a load of points off them, not to mention our position being similar to a position we finished in 2 seasons ago with a far worse squad.
**I think you have done what you usually do and jumped in without thinking here. But i will by all means hear your theory as to why we occupy a false position or why indeed you dont think Southampton do and as a result expect them to be there or there abouts come seasons end.**
** - important, do not ignore. this is the part that continues the debate for the benefit of the thread. Thanks in advance. |
Irrelevant and nonsensical stats do not back up your argument, even more so when you're not basing them on correct data (i.e a random top 7)
If you want a reliable comparison of the two, why don't you compare the common opponents that we've played?
I have not made a case for anything you plum. You can either argue that every position is false 12 games into a season, or none of them are, there is no middle ground for your preference. | |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 14:19 - Nov 25 with 5546 views | Parlay |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 14:12 - Nov 25 by C_jack |
Irrelevant and nonsensical stats do not back up your argument, even more so when you're not basing them on correct data (i.e a random top 7)
If you want a reliable comparison of the two, why don't you compare the common opponents that we've played?
I have not made a case for anything you plum. You can either argue that every position is false 12 games into a season, or none of them are, there is no middle ground for your preference. |
Are you drunk?
Man United, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton are not a "random" 7 clubs at all are they. They are the big 7 teams recognised by 99.9999% of the british footballing community and the top 7 finishers in most recent seasons.
By saying they are "nonsensical stats" just shows you dont understand them or at least can not grasp them. Why would i have to say everybody is in a false position or nobody is? It does not have to be one or the other - they are not mutually exclusive as the fixture list is not mutually exclusive.
We can indeed use your theory after 19 or 38 games of course where everybody has played the same % of hard games but as you know we haven't, we have played 12.
*****You have made a case though fella by merely responding the way you have. If you disagree that Southampton are in a false position then you are making a case for it are you not? Ive asked you to tell us why you think Southampton will be 2nd come seasons end, if you dont think they will be 2nd come seasons end then congratulations, you agree with me. *****
over to you - plum.
Ps ive put an asterix next to the paragraph you need to respond to again as i knew you would ignore the last one. [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 14:24]
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 14:28 - Nov 25 with 5520 views | skippyjack |
Saints vs Us
Saints..
WBA - drew
Swansea - won
Newcastle - won
Sunderland - won
Stoke - won
Leicester - won
Swans..
WBA - won
Saints - lost
Newcastle - drew
Sunderland - drew
Stoke - lost
Leicester - won
If only we had saints results... we'd be on 29 points | |
| The awkward moment when a Welsh Club become the Champions of England.. shh
The Swansea Way.. To upset the odds. | | Poll: | Best Swans Player |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 14:37 - Nov 25 with 5502 views | Parlay |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 14:28 - Nov 25 by skippyjack |
Saints vs Us
Saints..
WBA - drew
Swansea - won
Newcastle - won
Sunderland - won
Stoke - won
Leicester - won
Swans..
WBA - won
Saints - lost
Newcastle - drew
Sunderland - drew
Stoke - lost
Leicester - won
If only we had saints results... we'd be on 29 points |
Again Skippy, I'm not entirely sure why you keep suggesting that people are saying we are better than Southampton. Not one person has, nobody is criticising them either.
I emplore you to understand the thread before continuing.
A brief synopsis of what is being said is Southamptons matches have largely been made up of the easier teams in the league, meaning when they play the big guns - logic suggests they will fall away from their current 2nd position (absolutely nothing to do with us, and certainly nothing to do with us being better).
We have already played more than our fair portion of difficult games suggesting that where we find ourselves is about right (no criticism of Southampton or indeed suggestion we are better).
Such is the contrast between the fixture lists, the difficulty of their next 3 games should in theory see us close the gap on them. This is all fairly straight forward and obvious, im sure people just like to argue for the sake of it. [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 14:48]
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 16:17 - Nov 25 with 5426 views | LeonisGod |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 13:31 - Nov 25 by MrSwan |
we are a much better team than Southampton we have had some tough games and still only just trailing behind them and we gave the a battering and should have won when we played them and were screwed out of that one aswel. |
Southampton look a very well drilled team to me. | | | |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 16:57 - Nov 25 with 5394 views | C_jack |
The league is a meritocracy, look it up. They are 2nd on merit, just as we are 7th. It's not 'false' at all, they have been fantastic, to concede one goal at home and 6 in 12 games is probably the best ever defensive start in the history of the PL. Where they finish in May is irrelevant. There is nothing 'false' about their position as the 2nd best team in the league, on the 25th November 2014, with 12 games played. Only those who predict the future can say otherwise.
Alas, such is the 'false' nature of their position, that it will take at least 3 games for them to drop to (at worst) 4th place.
Judging by that well founded theory (!) then every team in the league is in a false position until game 38, as they can go either up or down, madness.
Some people think football, some people think about football. [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 17:04]
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 17:06 - Nov 25 with 5377 views | Parlay |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 16:57 - Nov 25 by C_jack |
The league is a meritocracy, look it up. They are 2nd on merit, just as we are 7th. It's not 'false' at all, they have been fantastic, to concede one goal at home and 6 in 12 games is probably the best ever defensive start in the history of the PL. Where they finish in May is irrelevant. There is nothing 'false' about their position as the 2nd best team in the league, on the 25th November 2014, with 12 games played. Only those who predict the future can say otherwise.
Alas, such is the 'false' nature of their position, that it will take at least 3 games for them to drop to (at worst) 4th place.
Judging by that well founded theory (!) then every team in the league is in a false position until game 38, as they can go either up or down, madness.
Some people think football, some people think about football. [Post edited 25 Nov 2014 17:04]
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Of course they are there on merit, who has suggested otherwise? You are just jumping to conclusions as was clear by your examples, you haven't seemed to grasp even the concept of the thread until now.
They ARE in a false position however as they have no hope to be there come seasons end. To suggest they have just as much chance of winning their next 3 games as their last 3 games is complete nonsense. They have these 3 hard games in a row not by coincidence but by mathematical inevitability. They have had one of the easiest 12 games you could possibly have up until now so their remaining fixtures of their first half of the season should (and will) see their points per game ratio slip and thus should (and will) see them slide down the league from their current position.
We have 3 easier games next again, not by coincidence, but because we have played 5 of the big 7 already meaning that we will have an easier time of things over the course of the next 7.
I will happily bet anything you like that we will close the gap on Southampton from now until we have both played 19 games - but of course you wont take that bet as you know im right.
Some people think about how to make sense - others just naturally make sense. | |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 20:36 - Nov 25 with 5230 views | Swan91 |
I've given up predicting how teams are going to do this season. Instead of having a top 4 almost garunteed from the start of the season like before there are places up for grab. Southampton are doing well and they have quite a few players i wouldnt mind having in swansea first team.
I believe they deserve the position and would like to see them (instead of someone like arsenal or utd) in the top 4 at the end of the season. Would be an i teresting change. Saying that, if we could go above them and finish top 6 then that would be amazing. Nothing is certain (one of the main reasons i am enjoying this season more than others) | | | |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 15:22 - Nov 30 with 4971 views | Parlay |
There we go, not so mental after all.
3-0 defeat to 10 man Man City at home and drop from 2nd position while we gain a point on them with a markedly easier game due to the fixture pattern of previous games.
Next up we have QPR home and they have Arsenal away - again, no coincidence. | |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 21:51 - Dec 3 with 4778 views | Parlay |
And it continues to go as predicted.
Arsenal 1-0 Southampton
Swansea 2-0 QPR
3 points gained on them after today added to the point gained on them last week which leaves us 4 points behind them with another great chance to gain on the weekend.
Southampton v Man Utd
West Ham v Swansea | |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 21:58 - Dec 3 with 4746 views | SwansNZ |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 21:51 - Dec 3 by Parlay |
And it continues to go as predicted.
Arsenal 1-0 Southampton
Swansea 2-0 QPR
3 points gained on them after today added to the point gained on them last week which leaves us 4 points behind them with another great chance to gain on the weekend.
Southampton v Man Utd
West Ham v Swansea |
West Ham will be a tough game, be happy with a point. Hope we turn up this year!
If only we did not lose that game to Southampton, when Bony got sent off. A draw then, and we'd be level with them right now. |  |
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| Chance to catch Southampton on 22:12 - Dec 3 with 4698 views | dameedna |
Good
We have gained 4 points on SFC over last 2 games
Can't see SFC getting much in next game
Same goes for SCFC (draw would be good v WHU)
I don't see SFC there at the end --- top 10 and outside the BIg 7
SCFC and WHU look more solid and able to challenge for Top 6 and I think Palace will do well
Our Defence is going to have to work hard against WHU
Too many soft goals in recent years
We are better since Flores left
Bartley will be needed if Carroll plays |  | | |
| Chance to catch Southampton on 22:05 - Dec 8 with 4443 views | Parlay |
And to tie this lovely thread up into a nice neat parcel.
Southampton lost all 3 games and drop to 5th and we slice the deficit in half.
Fixture lists can be cruel and kind, as i said. | |
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