| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 514328 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 02:41 - May 16 with 1668 views | Jack123 |
Well done Matt H
A twa£ [Post edited 16 May 2020 2:42]
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| Corona Virus on 08:47 - May 16 with 1577 views | rockj |
| Corona Virus on 16:23 - May 15 by londonlisa2001 |
The reports emerging today of the breakdown of infection rates in the UK are going to end up showing why what has happened has happened (if you see what I mean).
If we are to believe them, and they are coming from pretty reputable sources at Public Health England and Cambridge University, the virus has virtually disappeared in London, with infection rates of c. 200,000 people per day (yes, that’s PER DAY) in February / early March now, according to them, standing at about 10-20 people per day. And several million of us have been infected (hmm - let’s wait for the antibody testing).
If that is correct, the virus was so widespread in the UK so early that it’s hard to see how the UK could possibly have locked down early enough to prevent widespread infection. Because we simply didn’t have mass testing early enough at a high enough level (the single biggest failing in terms of the virus in the community rather than specific settings, such as care homes, although more of that later).
But, the other Interesting stuff is that the data suggests a fatality rate of around 0.6%. Far higher than flu, but lower than the scientists thought at the start. But it’s also completely apparent that certain groups are getting it far, far worse. Not only various ethnic groupings, but also, according to general level of health. I don’t mean health as in actual diseases you may have, but health as in levels of being overweight, diabetes, blood pressure type health. With factors such as vitamin deficiency, deficiency of certain minerals, and, of course, oestrogen (a factor in the male vs female numbers).
We, together with the Americans, and certain European countries, are an overweight, sedentary lot, with a lot of mild (and not so mild) issues with blood pressure, type 2 diabetes and, for a significant
Percentage of the population, a shitty diet, full of junk. We’ve a rubbish climate, live inside too much and hardly walk anywhere. All of these things seem to me to be exacerbated by wealth inequality. Many of the countries with better outcomes, have healthier people, with far less incidence of obesity (you never see many overweight people from countries like Japan, or Korea), are more ‘outdoorsy’ (the Scandinavians) or with better diets (pretty much everywhere apart from countries like Belgium who’ve had a similarly torrid time).
Rates of poor outcomes are far higher in poorer areas - it’s partly because people can’t lock down and work from home perhaps, but it’s not only that as that explains infections being higher but not outcomes being worse for those infected.
To me, the real scandal of this is less the timing of lockdown (I’ve said before I think this hit far earlier than we thought) but more the general social factors that have contributed to our shitty numbers - we HAVE to move forward with a healthier, more equal society, with better nutrition, health education, preventative rather than reactive public health measures, and more active lifestyles. Perhaps Johnson realising that his case was severe due to his size will drive a different public health agenda? Shutting up school playing fields and allowing KFC and the like to dominate society to such an extent that people will sit in queues for hours to get a burger when they reopen is not good public health policy.
On the issue of care homes, the report in the Guardian suggesting that they are finding that lockdown is, in itself causing awful outcomes to those in care homes, is deeply upsetting. Reports from staff are saying that residents are simply ‘giving up’. We all know of older people I’m sure where we’ve seen this happen - often following the death of a loved one, the partner will simply lose the will to live and go downhill rapidly. A huge percentage of those in care homes have some form of dementia, and the thought that they simply can’t understand why no one is visiting anymore is heartbreaking.
We need to try to find a solution. I know we have to stop the spread of infection, but the large number of excess deaths in care homes where the virus isn’t a cause suggests that the reports from care homes staff, albeit anecdotal, has a genuine ring of truth. Perhaps testing relatives and, if clear, allowing them to visit is an answer? |
As ever the best poster
If you’re on similar wavelength to Lisa then I’m confident I’m on right track here
I’ve been getting a lot of criticism in real life for my views but in the end I think the Swedish approach will be proven to be correct |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 09:20 - May 16 with 1558 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 08:47 - May 16 by rockj |
As ever the best poster
If you’re on similar wavelength to Lisa then I’m confident I’m on right track here
I’ve been getting a lot of criticism in real life for my views but in the end I think the Swedish approach will be proven to be correct |
But sadly, the study has flaws as 49 people were hospitalised in London with SARS Cov2 alone. Suggests to me transmission is still much higher
Sweden looks to have a pretty uncontrolled epidemic in comparison to its neighbours,
So not a successful approach. We really won’t know the voracity of this study unless we have wider serological data. The pilot one seems to suggest exposure to the virus is lower than suggested by the Cambridge model. My belief is we were a week too late with lockdown
And we are coming out (in England) a little too soon. But end it has to and the die is now cast | | | |
| Corona Virus on 09:28 - May 16 with 1542 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 08:47 - May 16 by rockj |
As ever the best poster
If you’re on similar wavelength to Lisa then I’m confident I’m on right track here
I’ve been getting a lot of criticism in real life for my views but in the end I think the Swedish approach will be proven to be correct |
I’m not saying the Swedish approach was correct. It may have been for most of their population but they didn’t protect their elderly properly as far as I can see. Although obviously many European countries had a problem with care homes whatever they did.
The Swedish approach certainly wouldn’t have worked here as our population aren’t self regulating and our population is also differently spread.
They’ve a large country with few inhabitants (relatively). The same approach here would have been carnage. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 09:31 - May 16 with 1536 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 09:20 - May 16 by Professor |
But sadly, the study has flaws as 49 people were hospitalised in London with SARS Cov2 alone. Suggests to me transmission is still much higher
Sweden looks to have a pretty uncontrolled epidemic in comparison to its neighbours,
So not a successful approach. We really won’t know the voracity of this study unless we have wider serological data. The pilot one seems to suggest exposure to the virus is lower than suggested by the Cambridge model. My belief is we were a week too late with lockdown
And we are coming out (in England) a little too soon. But end it has to and the die is now cast |
Not sure I follow this point - London hospitalisation are always going to be lagging c. 3 weeks or more behind infection?
Not saying I believe they’re as low as they’re saying by the way (as I pointed out in my post). I was talking more about some of the factors in our population (general poor health) that has had an impact. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 09:33 - May 16 with 1536 views | Dr_Winston |
| Corona Virus on 09:20 - May 16 by Professor |
But sadly, the study has flaws as 49 people were hospitalised in London with SARS Cov2 alone. Suggests to me transmission is still much higher
Sweden looks to have a pretty uncontrolled epidemic in comparison to its neighbours,
So not a successful approach. We really won’t know the voracity of this study unless we have wider serological data. The pilot one seems to suggest exposure to the virus is lower than suggested by the Cambridge model. My belief is we were a week too late with lockdown
And we are coming out (in England) a little too soon. But end it has to and the die is now cast |
Surely the only time when it can be decided about whether an approach is successful or not is once it's over?
If in 12/18 months time there are no further CV infections and the Swedish death rate is still considerably higher than their neighbours then yes, they will have failed. If in that time the proportionate figures are broadly the same in most places and the Swedes achieved that without shutting down most of their society then no doubt they'll feel that they've done quite well. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Corona Virus on 09:42 - May 16 with 1526 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 09:31 - May 16 by londonlisa2001 |
Not sure I follow this point - London hospitalisation are always going to be lagging c. 3 weeks or more behind infection?
Not saying I believe they’re as low as they’re saying by the way (as I pointed out in my post). I was talking more about some of the factors in our population (general poor health) that has had an impact. |
The study is also based on transmission around a week ago and hospitalisation would be over a very wide period post infection. But you are right about standard of diet. Whilst I enjoy KFC and McD-about once a month is enough. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 09:51 - May 16 with 1517 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 09:33 - May 16 by Dr_Winston |
Surely the only time when it can be decided about whether an approach is successful or not is once it's over?
If in 12/18 months time there are no further CV infections and the Swedish death rate is still considerably higher than their neighbours then yes, they will have failed. If in that time the proportionate figures are broadly the same in most places and the Swedes achieved that without shutting down most of their society then no doubt they'll feel that they've done quite well. |
On what we can see Sweden had an epidemic curve of high transmission and case numbers, rather than the spike in Denmark or Norway it looks more like a high mesa | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 10:00 - May 16 with 1508 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 09:33 - May 16 by Dr_Winston |
Surely the only time when it can be decided about whether an approach is successful or not is once it's over?
If in 12/18 months time there are no further CV infections and the Swedish death rate is still considerably higher than their neighbours then yes, they will have failed. If in that time the proportionate figures are broadly the same in most places and the Swedes achieved that without shutting down most of their society then no doubt they'll feel that they've done quite well. |
It depends on whether other counties see a second spike that they don’t get I guess.
They must have greater immunity as a whole (however long that lasts). Of course any country that has factored that in will find themselves on the wrong side of history if a vaccine is developed way in advance of what was originally thought. As the second wave will be nullified ( at least to some extent) by the vaccine. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:07 - May 16 with 1495 views | Dr_Winston |
| Corona Virus on 09:51 - May 16 by Professor |
On what we can see Sweden had an epidemic curve of high transmission and case numbers, rather than the spike in Denmark or Norway it looks more like a high mesa |
Would the high transmission correlate to the lack of restrictions? I'd guess that spikes are a consequence of locking down. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Corona Virus on 10:12 - May 16 with 1485 views | Pegojack |
| Corona Virus on 02:41 - May 16 by Jack123 |
Well done Matt H
A twa£ [Post edited 16 May 2020 2:42]
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They have absolutely no shame, no personal morals. How can he stand there and say that with a straight face? |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:18 - May 16 with 1465 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 10:00 - May 16 by londonlisa2001 |
It depends on whether other counties see a second spike that they don’t get I guess.
They must have greater immunity as a whole (however long that lasts). Of course any country that has factored that in will find themselves on the wrong side of history if a vaccine is developed way in advance of what was originally thought. As the second wave will be nullified ( at least to some extent) by the vaccine. |
Will depend on level of exposure, degree that immune response is protective and length of protection. There will be some effect of herd immunity for a ‘second wave’ but unless exposure is near 50% it won’t do much to stop transmission to the susceptible population. I really think it was the wrong approach. Time will tell | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:21 - May 16 with 1460 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 10:07 - May 16 by Dr_Winston |
Would the high transmission correlate to the lack of restrictions? I'd guess that spikes are a consequence of locking down. |
That would be the theory. Even the U.K. has a more classical bell curve of cases.
It’s brave to hold onto the herd immunity approach. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:23 - May 16 with 1455 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 10:18 - May 16 by Professor |
Will depend on level of exposure, degree that immune response is protective and length of protection. There will be some effect of herd immunity for a ‘second wave’ but unless exposure is near 50% it won’t do much to stop transmission to the susceptible population. I really think it was the wrong approach. Time will tell |
I think it was as well.
Although if figures are correct in London we were subjected to it without knowing. Which is a reason being touted for our low transmission rates now. There are a high percentage of people here who’ve been exposed.
Fingers crossed I’m one of them.
It’s all speculation until an antibody test is rolled out, although it appears that may be quite soon now with the test from Roche having been approved in England. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:31 - May 16 with 1439 views | Dr_Winston |
| Corona Virus on 10:23 - May 16 by londonlisa2001 |
I think it was as well.
Although if figures are correct in London we were subjected to it without knowing. Which is a reason being touted for our low transmission rates now. There are a high percentage of people here who’ve been exposed.
Fingers crossed I’m one of them.
It’s all speculation until an antibody test is rolled out, although it appears that may be quite soon now with the test from Roche having been approved in England. |
I think we're gonna see a big disparity between rural/urban areas when they do eventually start testing. I'd be surprised if it wasn't widespread in London to the point where it seems to be burning itself out, whereas places like Pembrokeshire will have infections rumbling along for a while. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Corona Virus on 10:34 - May 16 with 1436 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 02:41 - May 16 by Jack123 |
Well done Matt H
A twa£ [Post edited 16 May 2020 2:42]
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My grans care home was locked down on the 12th March. 11 days before the rest of the country. Up until then it was open with no restrictions, business as usual. Few signs up but that’s it. There was definitely no protective ring around it in February. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 10:47 - May 16 with 1417 views | controversial_jack |
Care homes are really difficult to control.If one resident get's ill how do you isolate them from the others? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:53 - May 16 with 1406 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 10:47 - May 16 by controversial_jack |
Care homes are really difficult to control.If one resident get's ill how do you isolate them from the others? |
Isolating them is the easy bit. Just keep them in their rooms. The problem is when a carer comes in to bring them food, change/wash them etc before going to see to the next person. | |
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| Corona Virus on 10:55 - May 16 with 1401 views | controversial_jack |
| Corona Virus on 10:53 - May 16 by Highjack |
Isolating them is the easy bit. Just keep them in their rooms. The problem is when a carer comes in to bring them food, change/wash them etc before going to see to the next person. |
You can't keep them in their room.That's the dullest thing I have ever heard on here | | | |
| Corona Virus on 11:01 - May 16 with 1390 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 10:55 - May 16 by controversial_jack |
You can't keep them in their room.That's the dullest thing I have ever heard on here |
Have you ever been to a care home? There are loads of people who never leave their room. My gran for example is only allowed out of bed for an hour a day. | |
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| Corona Virus on 11:01 - May 16 with 1386 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 10:53 - May 16 by Highjack |
Isolating them is the easy bit. Just keep them in their rooms. The problem is when a carer comes in to bring them food, change/wash them etc before going to see to the next person. |
Many of those being kept in their rooms are just giving up according to some who are working in care homes.
Some of those with dementia don’t understand why they’ve been ‘abandoned’ and no one is coming to see them. It’s heartbreaking. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 11:03 - May 16 with 1380 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 11:01 - May 16 by londonlisa2001 |
Many of those being kept in their rooms are just giving up according to some who are working in care homes.
Some of those with dementia don’t understand why they’ve been ‘abandoned’ and no one is coming to see them. It’s heartbreaking. |
Yes. I’m acutely aware of this. | |
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| Corona Virus on 11:04 - May 16 with 1378 views | controversial_jack |
| Corona Virus on 11:01 - May 16 by Highjack |
Have you ever been to a care home? There are loads of people who never leave their room. My gran for example is only allowed out of bed for an hour a day. |
My wife worked in a care room, and they weren't kept in their rooms.Many have dementia and will wander.Unfortunately, there's not much that can be done to prevent the spread, but staff should have the correct PPE. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 11:10 - May 16 with 1370 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 11:03 - May 16 by Highjack |
Yes. I’m acutely aware of this. |
It’s an almost impossible balance.
One of the difficulties, as I understand it, has been staff moving between a number of homes, so an infection in one has led to a spread to many. Repeated, comprehensive testing from the start is the only thing that could have prevented it, and, as we all know, testing in the early days was an absolute scandal.
If, at the end of this, it’s found that hospitals did release people back to care homes without testing, knowing they were possibly, or definitely infected, there will have to be serious consequences. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 11:12 - May 16 with 1364 views | Professor |
Bad and good news from the US. Most convalescent patients have antibodies that act tot neutralise the virus (bind and stop infection of cells). Those with mild symptoms sometimes did not. This part is bad news as exposure may not mean immune. Good news is that far more straightforward to make vaccines that produce these responses than cellular responses. Vaccine may produce more of these too as use of adjuvants in a vaccine drive this type
Of response well. An adjuvant is a compound that tricks the immune system into responding as sometimes a vaccine alone does not-
From the Latin ‘adjuvare’. -to help
Study was fairly small (68 patients) but detailed with clear results | | | |
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