| End of Season stats 10:30 - May 8 with 6745 views | BytholWyn |
The end of season stats do make for remarkable reading. The excellent Swans Analtyics has compiled a series of stats - this one being particularly telling:
Creating big chances hasn't been our problem in the second half of the season, nor even conceding them. We've just lacked a clinical edge up front - no surprise there, given that only McBurnie can be said to be a clinical finisher - with countless free kicks and corners going to waste. [Post edited 8 May 2019 10:33]
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| End of Season stats on 10:35 - May 8 with 5298 views | BytholWyn |
This tweet illustrates how we've been generally tight defensively, but have conceded a number of soft goals (I wonder why?):
I read somewhere that we had the third best record in the league when it comes to goals conceded from open play. That stat alone says it all about the significance of our set piece vulnerability. If we can get back next season to the solidity that we had at the start of this season that will give us the platform we need to progress. [Post edited 8 May 2019 10:39]
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| End of Season stats on 10:47 - May 8 with 5262 views | jasper_T |
People on here don't like stats. Prove them wrong too often for comfort. |  | | |
| End of Season stats on 11:01 - May 8 with 5215 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| End of Season stats on 10:47 - May 8 by jasper_T |
People on here don't like stats. Prove them wrong too often for comfort. |
Wrong too often?
Sounds like, yourself. |  | | |
| End of Season stats on 20:49 - May 8 with 4945 views | builthjack |
Stats? Where's Dav ? |  |
| Swansea Indepenent Poster Of The Year 2021. Dr P / Mart66 / Roathie / Parlay / E20/ Duffle was 2nd, but he is deluded and thinks in his little twisted brain that he won. Poor sod. We let him win this year, as he has cried for a whole year. His 14 usernames, bless his cotton socks.
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| End of Season stats on 21:10 - May 8 with 4924 views | Dr_Winston |
| End of Season stats on 10:47 - May 8 by jasper_T |
People on here don't like stats. Prove them wrong too often for comfort. |
Stats are OK to a degree. It's when people base their entire arguments on them that things go wrong. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| End of Season stats on 21:24 - May 8 with 4901 views | 3swan |
| End of Season stats on 21:10 - May 8 by Dr_Winston |
Stats are OK to a degree. It's when people base their entire arguments on them that things go wrong. |
Exactly. They only give part of the picture | | | |
| End of Season stats on 21:33 - May 8 with 4889 views | Dr_Winston |
| End of Season stats on 21:24 - May 8 by 3swan |
Exactly. They only give part of the picture |
Football is far too improvisational a game for stats to be anything more than a rough guide. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| End of Season stats on 22:37 - May 8 with 4829 views | jasper_T |
Ideas come first, then you use stats to prove/disprove what you thought you knew.
Far too many people do the first part and then get huffy when confronted by the second because "everyone's entitled to their opinion". Even if it's provably wrong. [Post edited 8 May 2019 22:37]
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| End of Season stats on 22:42 - May 8 with 4817 views | Dr_Winston |
| End of Season stats on 22:37 - May 8 by jasper_T |
Ideas come first, then you use stats to prove/disprove what you thought you knew.
Far too many people do the first part and then get huffy when confronted by the second because "everyone's entitled to their opinion". Even if it's provably wrong. [Post edited 8 May 2019 22:37]
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Stats don't prove/disprove anything. They're an indication. Nothing more.
Matt Grimes being fourth in the divisions tackling stats might give you the impression that he was a tough defensive midfielder. Actually watching him play (or, more accurately, the players around him) would of course discourage any such view. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| End of Season stats on 23:02 - May 8 with 4787 views | jasper_T |
| End of Season stats on 22:42 - May 8 by Dr_Winston |
Stats don't prove/disprove anything. They're an indication. Nothing more.
Matt Grimes being fourth in the divisions tackling stats might give you the impression that he was a tough defensive midfielder. Actually watching him play (or, more accurately, the players around him) would of course discourage any such view. |
So you're content just ignoring the "indication" because it contradicts your gut impression?
Like the people still insisting Nordfeldt is a "good shot stopper" despite saving less shots than all but one other Championship goalkeeper.
Never let facts get in the way of a good pile of nonsense, eh? | | | |
| End of Season stats on 23:14 - May 8 with 4763 views | Dr_Winston |
| End of Season stats on 23:02 - May 8 by jasper_T |
So you're content just ignoring the "indication" because it contradicts your gut impression?
Like the people still insisting Nordfeldt is a "good shot stopper" despite saving less shots than all but one other Championship goalkeeper.
Never let facts get in the way of a good pile of nonsense, eh? |
I'm content ignoring the indication because it bears little relevance to what I've seen with my own two eyes. Likewise I can continue to admit that Nordfelt is decent at shot stopping and distribution regardless of what the stats say because I'm not a f*cking idiot who thinks maths and football analysis are the same thing. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| End of Season stats on 23:18 - May 8 with 4755 views | BytholWyn |
I'd much rather trust an argument based on facts than one based on gut feeling alone - which is probably the basis for 90% of the arguments on this forum (and that stat is 100% reliable).
The problem with stats is that there often aren't enough of them to form a comprehensive picture. Leon is a case in point - he had no goals nor assists in his time in the Premier League, indifferent tackling stats, very indifferent aerial success stats, and pretty much the only stats in his favour were pass completion and interceptions. And yet we all know he was absolutely fundamental to the success of our style of play. Unfortunately there's no easy way of measuring the ability to play in tight spaces and be the key player that makes swift transitions from defence to attack.
So, yes stats only go so far, but give me a statistically based argument over gut feeling any day of the week. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 23:22 - May 8 with 4740 views | Luther27 |
| End of Season stats on 23:18 - May 8 by BytholWyn |
I'd much rather trust an argument based on facts than one based on gut feeling alone - which is probably the basis for 90% of the arguments on this forum (and that stat is 100% reliable).
The problem with stats is that there often aren't enough of them to form a comprehensive picture. Leon is a case in point - he had no goals nor assists in his time in the Premier League, indifferent tackling stats, very indifferent aerial success stats, and pretty much the only stats in his favour were pass completion and interceptions. And yet we all know he was absolutely fundamental to the success of our style of play. Unfortunately there's no easy way of measuring the ability to play in tight spaces and be the key player that makes swift transitions from defence to attack.
So, yes stats only go so far, but give me a statistically based argument over gut feeling any day of the week. |
I think Bill Shankly, Alex Ferguson etc would probably agree with that. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 23:24 - May 8 with 4741 views | Dr_Winston |
| End of Season stats on 23:18 - May 8 by BytholWyn |
I'd much rather trust an argument based on facts than one based on gut feeling alone - which is probably the basis for 90% of the arguments on this forum (and that stat is 100% reliable).
The problem with stats is that there often aren't enough of them to form a comprehensive picture. Leon is a case in point - he had no goals nor assists in his time in the Premier League, indifferent tackling stats, very indifferent aerial success stats, and pretty much the only stats in his favour were pass completion and interceptions. And yet we all know he was absolutely fundamental to the success of our style of play. Unfortunately there's no easy way of measuring the ability to play in tight spaces and be the key player that makes swift transitions from defence to attack.
So, yes stats only go so far, but give me a statistically based argument over gut feeling any day of the week. |
You say you'd rather trust an argument based on stats, then go into a long paragraph on why stats are untrustworthy.
It's got nothing to do with gut instinct. Football is fundamentally unsuited to analysis purely by statistic. Statistics are fundamentally about repetition. The very antithesis of what football should be.
As you rightfully say, nothing about Leon suggests a Premier League quality player, but he very definitely was. In football stats should only be used as a last resort. A finality. For basic analysis they're largely useless. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| End of Season stats on 23:28 - May 8 with 4728 views | BytholWyn |
Another interesting stat for you. We finished in the play-off places (4th in fact) in the expected goals table, with a goal difference of plus 16, and 8 more goals than we actually managed. What this indicates is that although our set piece deficiencies played a big part in us falling short, so did our poor finishing. You only have to think of Matt Grimes' free kicks in good positions - not a single goal, the ball pretty much always going over the bar. Next season he needs to stay off the Viagra if he's wants to keep it down. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 23:32 - May 8 with 4723 views | Dr_Winston |
| End of Season stats on 23:28 - May 8 by BytholWyn |
Another interesting stat for you. We finished in the play-off places (4th in fact) in the expected goals table, with a goal difference of plus 16, and 8 more goals than we actually managed. What this indicates is that although our set piece deficiencies played a big part in us falling short, so did our poor finishing. You only have to think of Matt Grimes' free kicks in good positions - not a single goal, the ball pretty much always going over the bar. Next season he needs to stay off the Viagra if he's wants to keep it down. |
"Expected goals".
Meaningless crap. Sorry. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| End of Season stats on 23:52 - May 8 with 4687 views | jasper_T |
| End of Season stats on 23:14 - May 8 by Dr_Winston |
I'm content ignoring the indication because it bears little relevance to what I've seen with my own two eyes. Likewise I can continue to admit that Nordfelt is decent at shot stopping and distribution regardless of what the stats say because I'm not a f*cking idiot who thinks maths and football analysis are the same thing. |
Your two eyes need stronger specs.
Only idiots stick to their guns when confronted with evidence that challenges their views. Complete f*cking idiots decide to disregard statistics as a whole when numbers don't line up with their opinion.
Thankfully football has moved on from your sort of thinking. A lot of money and attention is spent on maths in football analysis. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 23:54 - May 8 with 4683 views | BytholWyn |
You're better than that. Expected goals are a way of measuring the likelihood of scoring from various positions and situations. So for penalties the expected goals tariff is much higher than for a free kick from 30 yards, or any shot from outside of the box. If there's a big disparity between expected goals and actual goals it gives a good indication of how clinical a team has been - which is also illustrated in that tweet from Swans Analytics I refereed to earlier. This is all useful to identify areas that need working on - and you can rest assured that Potter will be using this stuff, whether you think it's crap or not. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 23:58 - May 8 with 4678 views | Dr_Winston |
| End of Season stats on 23:52 - May 8 by jasper_T |
Your two eyes need stronger specs.
Only idiots stick to their guns when confronted with evidence that challenges their views. Complete f*cking idiots decide to disregard statistics as a whole when numbers don't line up with their opinion.
Thankfully football has moved on from your sort of thinking. A lot of money and attention is spent on maths in football analysis. |
You claim that football has moved on from that kind of thinking, yet the teams that have gone all in on the "Moneyball" nonsense you subscribe to are generally nowhere near the trophies at the end of the season.
Ask Guardiola how much attention he pays to which player has won the most corners. Tell me what he says when he stops laughing. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| End of Season stats on 00:00 - May 9 with 4674 views | BytholWyn |
| End of Season stats on 23:24 - May 8 by Dr_Winston |
You say you'd rather trust an argument based on stats, then go into a long paragraph on why stats are untrustworthy.
It's got nothing to do with gut instinct. Football is fundamentally unsuited to analysis purely by statistic. Statistics are fundamentally about repetition. The very antithesis of what football should be.
As you rightfully say, nothing about Leon suggests a Premier League quality player, but he very definitely was. In football stats should only be used as a last resort. A finality. For basic analysis they're largely useless. |
You misread my post - my long paragraph is all about the limitation of stats when used in isolation. To build a complete picture you need as many stats as possible, but also a feel for the game does play its part, especially where stats fail to capture certain key qualities, such as Leon's ability to facilitate quick transitions from tight areas.
Statistics are about facts. What use you make of those stats is a matter of judgement, but judgement without facts is guaranteed to be prejudicial and flawed. Sometimes even completely wrong. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 07:47 - May 9 with 4560 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| End of Season stats on 21:33 - May 8 by Dr_Winston |
Football is far too improvisational a game for stats to be anything more than a rough guide. |
This post should have ended the thread really.
This is real life, not football manager. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 07:51 - May 9 with 4556 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| End of Season stats on 23:52 - May 8 by jasper_T |
Your two eyes need stronger specs.
Only idiots stick to their guns when confronted with evidence that challenges their views. Complete f*cking idiots decide to disregard statistics as a whole when numbers don't line up with their opinion.
Thankfully football has moved on from your sort of thinking. A lot of money and attention is spent on maths in football analysis. |
A lot of money was used yes, how much did we pay Dan Altman?
Mesa for example, every statisticians super hero. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 08:43 - May 9 with 4516 views | theloneranger |
| End of Season stats on 23:28 - May 8 by BytholWyn |
Another interesting stat for you. We finished in the play-off places (4th in fact) in the expected goals table, with a goal difference of plus 16, and 8 more goals than we actually managed. What this indicates is that although our set piece deficiencies played a big part in us falling short, so did our poor finishing. You only have to think of Matt Grimes' free kicks in good positions - not a single goal, the ball pretty much always going over the bar. Next season he needs to stay off the Viagra if he's wants to keep it down. |
Next season Grimes needs to stay away from direct free kicks at goal, or spend the close season practicing how to hit the target.
That's one stat that has been stand out all season!! |  |
| Everyday above ground ... Is a good day! 😎 |
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| End of Season stats on 09:06 - May 9 with 4495 views | jasper_T |
| End of Season stats on 23:58 - May 8 by Dr_Winston |
You claim that football has moved on from that kind of thinking, yet the teams that have gone all in on the "Moneyball" nonsense you subscribe to are generally nowhere near the trophies at the end of the season.
Ask Guardiola how much attention he pays to which player has won the most corners. Tell me what he says when he stops laughing. |
I've never talked about Moneyball or who wins the most corners. This is what I meant by disregarding the field of statistics as a whole because you thought some specific numbers looked silly.
Guardiola is one of the most details-driven managers in the game. If a team wins a disproportionate amount of corners he would know ahead of time and make sure his team was prepared.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/oct/15/pep-guardiola-bayern-munich-pep | | | |
| End of Season stats on 09:23 - May 9 with 4482 views | LeonWasGod |
| End of Season stats on 23:28 - May 8 by BytholWyn |
Another interesting stat for you. We finished in the play-off places (4th in fact) in the expected goals table, with a goal difference of plus 16, and 8 more goals than we actually managed. What this indicates is that although our set piece deficiencies played a big part in us falling short, so did our poor finishing. You only have to think of Matt Grimes' free kicks in good positions - not a single goal, the ball pretty much always going over the bar. Next season he needs to stay off the Viagra if he's wants to keep it down. |
You don't need stats to know we couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo. Take Oli out of it this season and we'd have been fecked. For far too long we've had wingers who don't score enough (last was Scotty) and midfielders who don't contribute enough (last was Gyli).
(Celina is by far the better set piece taker imo). |  | | |
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