| End of Season stats 10:30 - May 8 with 6730 views | BytholWyn |
The end of season stats do make for remarkable reading. The excellent Swans Analtyics has compiled a series of stats - this one being particularly telling:
Creating big chances hasn't been our problem in the second half of the season, nor even conceding them. We've just lacked a clinical edge up front - no surprise there, given that only McBurnie can be said to be a clinical finisher - with countless free kicks and corners going to waste. [Post edited 8 May 2019 10:33]
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| End of Season stats on 09:39 - May 9 with 1417 views | jack247 |
Stats are great for what they are and absolutely backup decent arguments based on watching the game.
They fall down when people rely on them solely because they often lack context. Grimes has been player of the season for me, but fourth best tackler in the Championship is up there with Mark Gower being the best passer or midfielder or whatever it was in the Premier League. |  | | |
| End of Season stats on 09:52 - May 9 with 1402 views | BytholWyn |
| End of Season stats on 09:39 - May 9 by jack247 |
Stats are great for what they are and absolutely backup decent arguments based on watching the game.
They fall down when people rely on them solely because they often lack context. Grimes has been player of the season for me, but fourth best tackler in the Championship is up there with Mark Gower being the best passer or midfielder or whatever it was in the Premier League. |
I don't disagree with that, but the question is where does the emphasis lie? Ideally you want to assemble an array of statistics as the basis for formulating an opinion on a player - not the other way around, otherwise you're going to end up with confirmation bias. On the other hand it's important never to lose sight that stats don't always measure everything that's important - with Leon, as I argued previously, being the perfect example.
The reality is of course that stats and analysis has become a massively important part of the modern game, and is only likely to grow in significance. The days when some skinny teenager playing down the local park gets signed up by a big club on the say so of a scout have long gone. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 10:09 - May 9 with 1384 views | magicdaps10 |
Fook the stats....I will trust what my own eyes will see. Stats can be as much misleading as they can be taken beneficial, if the club is going down the stat route as a gospel then they are asking for trouble. |  |
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| End of Season stats on 11:23 - May 9 with 1371 views | jack247 |
| End of Season stats on 09:52 - May 9 by BytholWyn |
I don't disagree with that, but the question is where does the emphasis lie? Ideally you want to assemble an array of statistics as the basis for formulating an opinion on a player - not the other way around, otherwise you're going to end up with confirmation bias. On the other hand it's important never to lose sight that stats don't always measure everything that's important - with Leon, as I argued previously, being the perfect example.
The reality is of course that stats and analysis has become a massively important part of the modern game, and is only likely to grow in significance. The days when some skinny teenager playing down the local park gets signed up by a big club on the say so of a scout have long gone. |
As far as I’m concerned, the emphasis should always be on watching the player. His stats should then validate opinions or cast doubts over them.
That skinny kid in the park will be watched, signed up for a development squad and then be under constant analysis, both statistical and traditional. Technology is available to clubs, they’d be mental not to use it, but the minute a club goes moneyball it’s putting itself in trouble. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 12:09 - May 9 with 1364 views | jasper_T |
| End of Season stats on 09:39 - May 9 by jack247 |
Stats are great for what they are and absolutely backup decent arguments based on watching the game.
They fall down when people rely on them solely because they often lack context. Grimes has been player of the season for me, but fourth best tackler in the Championship is up there with Mark Gower being the best passer or midfielder or whatever it was in the Premier League. |
It's brought up because our fans are apparently watching us play and deciding we're lightweight and fragile in midfield. That we need an experienced, commanding figure in there to kick people and sort it out. A "Ryan Woods-type" to toughen up the soft underbelly.
Other people who don't really agree with that assessment then go to the stats and see that as a team we actually concede less chances from open play than the vast majority of the league. Our holding midfield player has excellent stats in a wide range of defensive areas (tackles, interceptions, clearances etc.), performing better than "Woods-types". So where is this "fragility" coming into effect?
The problem with basing your opinions entirely on watching the game is it's easy to get caught up in the immediate drama, the scoreline changes the look of things immensely, and you can easily lose sight of the league as a whole at this level. You end up comparing our players to perfect ones, to Premier League highlights, and to each other instead of as Championship players. Stats provide a different objectivity.
CCV has among the best pass success rates in the division. But more stats show that he plays a very high percentage short, backwards, safe etc. Grimes makes a lot of tackles, and more stats show that he also makes interceptions and gives away relatively few fouls, in a team that routinely has more of the ball than the teams with more-prolific tacklers. Mark Gower was playing a neat and tidy role in a "possession as a form of defence" team. It's not like stats are incapable of providing context to these arguments. Taking single stats in isolation isn't using a bad tool, it's using a tool badly. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 12:17 - May 9 with 1357 views | monmouth |
| End of Season stats on 10:35 - May 8 by BytholWyn |
This tweet illustrates how we've been generally tight defensively, but have conceded a number of soft goals (I wonder why?):
I read somewhere that we had the third best record in the league when it comes to goals conceded from open play. That stat alone says it all about the significance of our set piece vulnerability. If we can get back next season to the solidity that we had at the start of this season that will give us the platform we need to progress. [Post edited 8 May 2019 10:39]
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Whoa....
Get back to' set piece solididity? Do you have a time machine to 1964? |  |
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| End of Season stats on 13:13 - May 9 with 1341 views | jack247 |
| End of Season stats on 12:09 - May 9 by jasper_T |
It's brought up because our fans are apparently watching us play and deciding we're lightweight and fragile in midfield. That we need an experienced, commanding figure in there to kick people and sort it out. A "Ryan Woods-type" to toughen up the soft underbelly.
Other people who don't really agree with that assessment then go to the stats and see that as a team we actually concede less chances from open play than the vast majority of the league. Our holding midfield player has excellent stats in a wide range of defensive areas (tackles, interceptions, clearances etc.), performing better than "Woods-types". So where is this "fragility" coming into effect?
The problem with basing your opinions entirely on watching the game is it's easy to get caught up in the immediate drama, the scoreline changes the look of things immensely, and you can easily lose sight of the league as a whole at this level. You end up comparing our players to perfect ones, to Premier League highlights, and to each other instead of as Championship players. Stats provide a different objectivity.
CCV has among the best pass success rates in the division. But more stats show that he plays a very high percentage short, backwards, safe etc. Grimes makes a lot of tackles, and more stats show that he also makes interceptions and gives away relatively few fouls, in a team that routinely has more of the ball than the teams with more-prolific tacklers. Mark Gower was playing a neat and tidy role in a "possession as a form of defence" team. It's not like stats are incapable of providing context to these arguments. Taking single stats in isolation isn't using a bad tool, it's using a tool badly. |
It’s easy for fans to get caught up in the excitement of the game yeah, just as it’s easy to look at pass completion rate in isolation and think Gower and CCV are world beaters. You would hope professional football people wouldn’t get swayed by emotion or simplicity.
I’m not trying to completely discredit stats or suggest any professional team should base their recruitment or development solely on gut feeling and experience.
Some stats, particularly the purely physical ones, give you an insight the naked eye may not see so easily. It doesn’t take multiple sets of complex equations to see that CCV doesn’t attempt many Hollywood balls or Dan James has a bit of pace about him. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 17:56 - May 9 with 1297 views | jasper_T |
| End of Season stats on 13:13 - May 9 by jack247 |
It’s easy for fans to get caught up in the excitement of the game yeah, just as it’s easy to look at pass completion rate in isolation and think Gower and CCV are world beaters. You would hope professional football people wouldn’t get swayed by emotion or simplicity.
I’m not trying to completely discredit stats or suggest any professional team should base their recruitment or development solely on gut feeling and experience.
Some stats, particularly the purely physical ones, give you an insight the naked eye may not see so easily. It doesn’t take multiple sets of complex equations to see that CCV doesn’t attempt many Hollywood balls or Dan James has a bit of pace about him. |
A kph measurement would have shown whether DJ's pace would translate so spectacularly to the senior game. I watched plenty of him and knew he was quick, but I honestly didn't realise he had elite-level pace near Mbappe, Adama Traore, peak Bale etc.
Watching him outstrip 18 year old fullbacks on a bobbly pitch, or Matthew Pennington against Ipswich, tells you less than Top Speed = 36kph does. Plus the number of sprints he makes and the overall minutes he gets, which Potter is always emphasising when he talks about him.
It's the kind of thing PL clubs will be looking at now if they haven't been already. | | | |
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| End of Season stats on 18:22 - May 9 with 1284 views | jack247 |
| End of Season stats on 17:56 - May 9 by jasper_T |
A kph measurement would have shown whether DJ's pace would translate so spectacularly to the senior game. I watched plenty of him and knew he was quick, but I honestly didn't realise he had elite-level pace near Mbappe, Adama Traore, peak Bale etc.
Watching him outstrip 18 year old fullbacks on a bobbly pitch, or Matthew Pennington against Ipswich, tells you less than Top Speed = 36kph does. Plus the number of sprints he makes and the overall minutes he gets, which Potter is always emphasising when he talks about him.
It's the kind of thing PL clubs will be looking at now if they haven't been already. |
Which is my point. Stats are a very useful validation of what you kind of know already. I wasn’t implying they were pointless.
The reverse of that would be knowing he can run at 36kph but not knowing how good his off the ball movement was and how adept he was at making runs to be played through. | | | |
| End of Season stats on 19:02 - May 9 with 1271 views | jasper_T |
| End of Season stats on 18:22 - May 9 by jack247 |
Which is my point. Stats are a very useful validation of what you kind of know already. I wasn’t implying they were pointless.
The reverse of that would be knowing he can run at 36kph but not knowing how good his off the ball movement was and how adept he was at making runs to be played through. |
Wolves paid £18m for a player who can't do either (he goes 37+, though). | | | |
| End of Season stats on 19:32 - May 9 with 1243 views | jack247 |
| End of Season stats on 19:02 - May 9 by jasper_T |
Wolves paid £18m for a player who can't do either (he goes 37+, though). |
Traore? Probably should have scouted him properly. | | | |
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