| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 02:51 - May 2 with 14311 views | Dr_Parnassus |
Firstly congratulations to Steve Cooper, the players and everyone at the club for not only reaching the playoffs for the second consecutive year, but amassing a points tally equal to our record best in this division, held previously by our incredible Brendan Rodgers side the year we went up.
We do have a chance to topple that record with any kind of positive result against Watford next week.
2011
2021
Not only is the points tally being exactly the same pretty remarkable, but also the fact we were going in with the best defensive record and yet the worst (joint) scoring record. Whether or not you like the style, like the manager - the blueprint has been very similar with regards to that.
But now the playoffs have been decided and we can look ahead...
The worst possible result for us sadly. They are one of those teams we don’t seem to do well against and think it’s fair to say that on paper have the strongest squad in the playoffs. Our last 6 meetings:-
Bournemouth 3-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 1-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-3 Bournemouth
0 goals scored. 9 goals conceded.
As many may have gathered by now I approach football the same way as I do with most aspects of life, methodical with a focus on statistics, trends and probabilities.
That premise suggests that you want to avoid the best team over the longest period of time. If you must meet that team then you have a greater chance to beat that team over a shorter period of time.
For example if Man City played Sheff United over a 90 minute match, they would probably be in the region of 1/10 to win, if the rules of the game made that a 180 minute match the odds would probably be 1/20, because the longer the time you have the more chance that the class difference will tell.
So ideally we would have wanted them in the final where aspects such as luck can play a part and not have chance to even itself out over the longer course of 2 legs.
So it’s going to be tough. But not impossible. We had a similar route in the Carling Cup where we were faced with playing Chelsea over 2 legs which set up an easier final. So it’s not out of the question.
Bournemouth rested a host of players against Wycombe yesterday and will probably do so again next week. We didn’t rest as many as I thought we would so would like to see that happen next week, which really is a dead rubber. It would be pretty galling to pick up an injury or red card.
All that is left to play for is home advantage in the second leg.
What will be will be. But whatever happens from here on in, this has been yet another successful season. [Post edited 2 May 2021 3:06]
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 17:43 - May 3 with 1492 views | KeithHaynes |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 17:20 - May 3 by PJackArmy |
How are u working out that we definately have bmouth? All it takes is for barnsley to better bmouths result in the last game and we will have barnsley |
I agree there are various probables, but his post was very interesting for me, here’s hoping you are right 😉 |  |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 18:17 - May 3 with 1472 views | jack247 |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 11:59 - May 3 by KeithHaynes |
Bennett, Guehi, Cabango
Roberts. Manning
Grimes, Fulton, Dhanda
Ayew, Lowe
Cooper will most likely go with Naughton instead of Cabango, but I think those three at the back are solid. I can see Cullen and Whittaker on the bench or maybe with such a strong defence Lowe on the left and Cullen with Ayew. Maybe too attacking for him, plus I think Hourihane will be included. Which worries me. |
Woodman
Naughton Bennett Guehi Manning
Fulton Grimes Smith
Ayew Routledge Lowe
Would be my choice. Agree he’ll probably pick Hourihane. Not sure he’ll go 532 though.
I’d be happy with Roberts>Naughton and Cabango>Bennett. |  | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 18:31 - May 3 with 1466 views | 9MilesHigh |
"As many may have gathered by now I approach football the same way as I do with most aspects of life, methodical with a focus on statistics, trends and probabilities, a God complex Rainman, type approach...." |  | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 18:52 - May 3 with 1437 views | onehunglow |
Look at Leicester and where they are now.
Down to Owners ..pure and simple | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 01:45 - May 4 with 1381 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 18:31 - May 3 by 9MilesHigh |
"As many may have gathered by now I approach football the same way as I do with most aspects of life, methodical with a focus on statistics, trends and probabilities, a God complex Rainman, type approach...." |
That’s the one squire.
You are at my church now, behave. [Post edited 4 May 2021 3:01]
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 02:15 - May 4 with 1373 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 17:20 - May 3 by PJackArmy |
How are u working out that we definately have bmouth? All it takes is for barnsley to better bmouths result in the last game and we will have barnsley |
It’s not definite, just probability wise. There is a scenario we can face Barnsley but it’s the most unlikely outcome out of all possible ones left. Barnsley have Norwich and Bournemouth have Stoke.
Bournemouth aren’t going to want to lose their grip on the middle two places because that means instead of us, they play Brentford without home advantage in the second leg.
If anyone wants the details and breakdown of it specifically:-
Bournemouth have a 55.4% chance to win, 26.3% chance to draw and 18.3% chance to lose.
Barnsley have a 35.7% chance to win, 26.4% chance to draw and 37.7% chance to lose.
So in order for Barnsley to even have a chance to overtake them, that chance will only present itself 44.6% of the time. Once it presents itself they will only take advantage 62.1% of the time (in terms of picking up points), but there is still the chance they both draw and still don’t overtake them (6.9% chance).
So when you convert those % odds, multiply them and convert that to implied probability, it states that the chances of us playing Bournemouth is 79.1%.
Not at all out of the question that we face Barnsley, just statistically the least likely.
As most people are more familiar with odds as opposed to %, with bookies over round applied, it would look something similar to this...
“Swansea to face Bournemouth in the playoffs: 1/5” [Post edited 4 May 2021 3:13]
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 06:43 - May 4 with 1351 views | RonaldStump |
Surely with all teams in the play offs resting players we could see any of the scenarios outlined in equal measure.
I'm pretty confident that at our best we can beat anyone in the play offs, at our worst we can get leathered.
lets hope for the former. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 06:53 - May 4 with 1349 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 06:43 - May 4 by RonaldStump |
Surely with all teams in the play offs resting players we could see any of the scenarios outlined in equal measure.
I'm pretty confident that at our best we can beat anyone in the play offs, at our worst we can get leathered.
lets hope for the former. |
I showed the calculations above, those are calculations with the scenarios you described already taken into consideration by the algorithm. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 07:34 - May 4 with 1342 views | felixstowe_jack |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 18:17 - May 3 by jack247 |
Woodman
Naughton Bennett Guehi Manning
Fulton Grimes Smith
Ayew Routledge Lowe
Would be my choice. Agree he’ll probably pick Hourihane. Not sure he’ll go 532 though.
I’d be happy with Roberts>Naughton and Cabango>Bennett. |
I would player Robert he is our third highest goalscorer, and has the second highest number of assist this season. Plus he can last 90 minutes. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 07:38 - May 4 with 1338 views | felixstowe_jack |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:03 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad |
It is very interesting looking at the 2011 table.
Of all those top 12 clubs the only ones that eventually made it in to the prem that are still there are Leicester, Leeds and Burnley .
It goes to show just how difficult it is for the any club but especially smaller clubs to get up there and stay there. |
Leeds had to get relegated to the first division and spent many years outside the top division before getting promoted back to the PL. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 10:56 - May 5 with 1236 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 07:34 - May 4 by felixstowe_jack |
I would player Robert he is our third highest goalscorer, and has the second highest number of assist this season. Plus he can last 90 minutes. |
Roberts is a complete liability in a back 4.
That goal Derby scored Saturday repeats with him over and over.
And anyone that knows Roberts' game and his weakness will know it wasn't a slip against Belgium when they did exactly the same.
It would be a massive concern playing Roberts there as he would be an easy target. | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 11:52 - May 5 with 1201 views | onehunglow |
Maybe Steve coach coach him. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:00 - May 5 with 1199 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 10:56 - May 5 by 9MilesHigh |
Roberts is a complete liability in a back 4.
That goal Derby scored Saturday repeats with him over and over.
And anyone that knows Roberts' game and his weakness will know it wasn't a slip against Belgium when they did exactly the same.
It would be a massive concern playing Roberts there as he would be an easy target. |
Right Wing Back or nothing in my opinion for Roberts, especially if they are playing that Danjuma lad.
As much as Roberts and Bidwell have been a brilliant attacking outlet for us in a five, I personally wouldn't play either in a 4. Especially against a side like Bournemouth with the likes of Danjuma etc. |  | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:18 - May 5 with 1141 views | jack247 |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:00 - May 5 by 34dfgdf54 |
Right Wing Back or nothing in my opinion for Roberts, especially if they are playing that Danjuma lad.
As much as Roberts and Bidwell have been a brilliant attacking outlet for us in a five, I personally wouldn't play either in a 4. Especially against a side like Bournemouth with the likes of Danjuma etc. |
I’d start Naughton as well if we’re going with a four. I can see where both 9miles and Felixstowe are coming from. He does offer a lot going forward, but has got a mistake in him and potentially leaves us vulnerable at the back.
I don’t think Cooper will be overly expansive in the first leg, as much as I’d like him to, so Naughton for me. | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 22:21 - May 5 with 1102 views | KeithHaynes |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:00 - May 5 by 34dfgdf54 |
Right Wing Back or nothing in my opinion for Roberts, especially if they are playing that Danjuma lad.
As much as Roberts and Bidwell have been a brilliant attacking outlet for us in a five, I personally wouldn't play either in a 4. Especially against a side like Bournemouth with the likes of Danjuma etc. |
He looks a completely different player in a back four, his athleticism is far more suited to wing back.
Got to give cooper a bit of a plus for that. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 22:55 - May 5 with 1090 views | onehunglow |
Starting Naughton,Routledge, plu Woody of course...!
Hope summer comes soon. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 23:19 - May 5 with 1084 views | Chief |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 22:21 - May 5 by KeithHaynes |
He looks a completely different player in a back four, his athleticism is far more suited to wing back.
Got to give cooper a bit of a plus for that. |
I've thought for a while Roberts would make a great out and out winger |  |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 08:07 - May 6 with 1048 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 23:19 - May 5 by Chief |
I've thought for a while Roberts would make a great out and out winger |
I did too, until he played in the 433 as one.
Was awful | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 08:14 - May 6 with 1035 views | onehunglow |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 08:07 - May 6 by 34dfgdf54 |
I did too, until he played in the 433 as one.
Was awful |
He might not be as valuable as we thought.
Or rather a case of being fooked about by our super Steve | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:19 - May 8 with 956 views | KeithHaynes |
It’s a mad league Dr P | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:25 - May 8 with 938 views | 34dfgdf54 |
“Algorithm”
Right again | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:29 - May 8 with 928 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:25 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54 |
“Algorithm”
Right again |
It was right. Maths is never wrong.
If I say “it’s 16.66% chance to land on number 1 on a dice” and that “it’s far more likely to land on another number” (83.34% likely), I roll it, and it lands on 1... I’m still right.
Fantastic result for us, best possible scenario. But the most unlikely one. [Post edited 8 May 2021 14:32]
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:30 - May 8 with 925 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:19 - May 8 by KeithHaynes |
It’s a mad league Dr P |
Utterly bonkers league, probably always will be. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:31 - May 8 with 914 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:29 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
It was right. Maths is never wrong.
If I say “it’s 16.66% chance to land on number 1 on a dice” and that “it’s far more likely to land on another number” (83.34% likely), I roll it, and it lands on 1... I’m still right.
Fantastic result for us, best possible scenario. But the most unlikely one. [Post edited 8 May 2021 14:32]
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You’re wrong, all of the time. | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:33 - May 8 with 902 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:31 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54 |
You’re wrong, all of the time. |
It’s maths. It’s not wrong.
You just don’t understand it, like you don’t understand anything even remotely past the basics.
I can’t help you there Riscs. | |
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