The fourth and final part of the annual LFW season preview focuses on the teams we think are set for a relegation scrap this year. Congratulations Reading, Wigan, Stoke, Southampton and Swansea, this probably means you’re safe.
And so we reach the end of our four part countdown ahead of the new Premiership season. Already part one is dated by the Robin Van Persie transfer, which bumps Man Utd up at least one place higher than I said three days ago. To be honest I usually come into this feature with some very strong opinions about teams but apart from expecting QPR and Aston Villa to do significantly better, Tottenham and Swansea to do significantly worse and Newcastle to have another decent year I’ve struggled to even hazard a guess at the rest.
In 140 characters or less… Notoriously slow starters in recent years but always come home with a wet sail. ‘Doing a Wigan,’ as it’s known in the top flight.
Last Season: Sold striker Shane Long to West Brom on the eve of the new season, replacing him with prolific Rotherham forward Adam Le Fondre at the end of August. Given that, and their propensity to start seasons slowly under Brian McDermott, it was no real surprise to see the Royals languishing in midtable come November. They lost five straight through August and September and by the first match in November they’d won just four of 16. But, to use the first Olympic metaphor of the entire preview on the team I have finishing sixteenth, Mo Farrah has shown it’s not about your position throughout the race, just where you end up at the finish line. Reading won 23 of their next 30 matches to eventually romp away with the league title and win promotion back to the Premiership after a four year absence.
Transfers: Big money spent on a long contract to tempt Pavel Pogrebnyak on a permanent deal ahead of Fulham where he spent last season on loan. Premiership experience, if not much quality, comes in the form of Nicky Shorey and Danny Guthrie on free transfers from West Brom and Newcastle. The Norwich technique of signing from the division just vacated sees Watford’s Adrian Mariappa and Nottingham Forest pair Chris Gunter and Garath McCleary arrive for a combined fee of £5m for the three. Brian Howard and Andy Griffin were released at the end of last season.
Manager: Brian McDermott comes across as a softly spoken, intelligent, thoughtful, modern football manager. He has achieved great success at Reading, walking into a bit of a mess after Brendan Rodgers’ premature sacking initially as a caretaker but later as the permanent boss and turning the ship around despite previous experience only stretching as far as brief periods in charge of non-league sides Woking and Slough. He’d been Reading’s chief scout before taking over as boss so at least knew the strengths of his players and having taken them to the play off final in his first full season in charge he won the title in his second. There’s a dislikeable side to McDermott and his team though. He’s a manager who will deflect attention away from the failings of him and his players and onto match officials. There’s certainly nothing unusual in that, and quite often he has a point in his complaints, but it’s an attitude that manifests itself in the ethos of the team and can be seen out there on the field of play. There are never less than three Reading players surrounding the referee whenever he makes any decision of any sort – protesting, arguing, sowing seeds of doubt, demanding cards be given out to fellow professionals. The worst protagonist, Matt Mills, has moved on but his partner in crime Jem Karacan remains to lead the refereeing committee and it’s a seriously unattractive trait in an otherwise decent side to watch.
Sack Race Odds – Might be a good bet. Has a new, rich, Russian owner and his team has tended to start slowly. He’s 16/1 eighth favourite across the board and 20/1 with Coral.
This Season: Reading’s summer strategy seems to have been a mixture of what QPR and Norwich did this time last year. Pavel Pogrebnyak on a four year contract and big weekly wage based on a quick fire burst of form at Fulham last year looks a little like Rangers’ Shaun Wright-Phillips acquisition – might work, might not. Chris Gunter, Garath McCleary and Adrian Mariappa were all impressive in the Championship and they can take heart from the way players like Grant Holt and Steve Morrison did at Carrow Road last term. The three promoted teams last season all survived for the first time in a decade and it was Swansea and Norwich, who stuck faith with the basis of their Championship sides, who did it the best. QPR struggled having brought in big names, and eventually stayed up thanks largely to the performance of the players that got them there in the first place when they came back into the side later in the campaign. The gap between the top two divisions isn’t as big as is often perceived, and with some fresh money in the Reading boardroom and a decent transfer strategy so far I think they may just about be alright.
Odds: Second favourites for the drop, longest price 6/4 with Boylesports but as low as Evens elsewhere.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… Milhouse: Desperately wants to be Bart Simpson to the point where he steals his shirt, nickname and chants.
In 140 characters or less… In the event of nuclear holocaust the only survivors would be cockroaches and Wigan Athletic.
Last Season: Pretty much the same as it has been for several seasons now. Wigan looked doomed for all money until the middle of March and then suddenly staged a miraculous recovery. After beginning the season with two draws and a win they then lost nine consecutive fixtures, and won just four matches out of their first 31 in all competitions. The only puzzle is how they then won seven of their last nine, including victories against Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle. Even one of the two defeats, at European Champions elect Chelsea, should have been at least a draw if not better and would have been had the linesman not been a passed away during the game. LFW’s resident tactics expert Neil Dejyothin has a theory that as Wigan sell several key players every summer and replace them on the cheap it takes a while for the new look team to settle into Roberto Martinez’s unique style of play. Whatever the reason, they just won’t die.
Transfers: As ever, having just survived last season they’ve immediately lost their better players. Hugo Rodallega didn’t play well last season to be fair so perhaps won’t be missed after a free transfer to Fulham but I was impressed by Mohamed Diame and he’ll be missed after going to West Ham. Victor Moses is seemingly about to join Chelsea. Ivan Ramis from Mallorca has come in but the eye catching acquisitions have been this week – Ryo Miyaichi on loan from Arsenal and Arouna Kone from Levante.
Manager: Impossible not to like Roberto Martinez, impossible to know exactly how he’s doing this miracle escape act year on year with such an apparently meagre group of players and low transfer budget. Martinez has steadfast views on how the game should be played – using a cross field pass from wing to wing as an out ball rather than that traditional English method of pumping it in behind opposing full backs – and he sticks with it religiously no matter how bad things get. Luckily for him he has a chairman at Wigan, Dave Whelen, who thinks the absolute world of him and stands by him through all the long runs of games without wins. That faith from the board saw Martinez reject a chance to join Aston Villa last summer and Liverpool this and while that’s very admirable, should he not be able to continue keeping Wigan up each year those offers will soon dry up.
Sack Race Odds – Considering Wigan have stuck with Martinez through thick and thin it’s something of a surprise to find him as low as 8/1 with Ladbrokes. He ranges from 10/1 up to 22/1 elsewhere.
This Season: More of the same? Well, until the start of this week I thought this might finally be the year for Wigan. Rodallega and Diame have gone, Moses seems sure to follow, how long can they possibly cope with this talent drain? Surely death from a thousand cuts must result? Then they signed Ryo Miyaichi on loan from Arsenal – he was excellent in a poor Bolton team last year and is an improvement on Rodallega in my opinion. Arouna Kone then arrived from Levante, and with 15 goals in 34 La Liga appearances in the division’s surprise package last season that looks like a real coup. Wigan stayed up last season selecting Connor Sammon and the truly terrible Franco Di Santo in attack – they’d have been just as well nipping down the local taxidermist and buying a couple of his practice pooches as playing those two – so to actually have a very decent Ivory Coast striker to pick from this term is also an improvement. That Moses money could be put to good use as well. The defence is still dreadful – Gary Caldwell for the love of God – and I’m not as convinced as some by eccentric goalkeeper Ali Al Habsi but I’m tired of tipping Wigan to be relegated and spending all season smugly reflecting on what a sound idea that was only for them to come roaring back at the last.
Odds: Fourth favourites for the drop with odds of 6/4, 7/4 and 13/8 available generally.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… Dr Nick: completely incompetent throughout, but somehow turns out ok in the end. Ridiculously cheerful and upbeat considering their ineptitude..
In 140 characters or less… Whoooooooooooooah... HOOF. #pulisball
Last Season: Stoke's fourth year of Premiership football and by the end the first cracks in Tony Pulis' ideal of staying in the top flight through intimidation of more talented teams were starting to appear. The numbers that Stoke post are never anything less than astonishing for a team that finishes in the middle of the table each year – and none of the 'big five' teams won at the Britannia Stadium last season which, considering Stoke started with a League One-standard midfield pairing of Rory Delap and Glenn Whelen when we last saw them at Loftus Road in May, is nothing short of a footballing miracle. They scored 16 goals from set pieces last year, and just 20 in open play. They scored just 11 times away from home all year, had the lowest shots-per-match average in the league (just shy of ten) and the lowest number of shots-on-target per game (2.5 on average). They were also dead last in the league for possession of the ball (39.5% on average), pass completion (69.5%) and against QPR in November they broke the league record for least number of passes completed in a single game – 117 in 96 minutes. That record was subsequently broken by QPR at Man City on the final day of the season although there were extenuating circumstances behind our total of 82 that day. Initially they struggled to cope with the demands of a travel-heavy Europa League group, and lost heavily at Sunderland and Bolton after trips to Kiev and Tel Aviv. Having gone through that pain and qualified from that group it then seemed strange to select a reserve team for an away game at Valencia after a drawn first leg – Stoke lost narrowly effectively ending their season and went on to win only three of their final 13 league games, and one of the last 11 thereafter.
Transfers: Michael Kightly has jumped ship from Wolves for £1.5m, Jamie Ness has moved south from Rangers but international clearance for that one remains outstanding. Jonathan Woodgate is now troubling the bars, tarts and private medical practises of Middlesbrough. Ricardo Fuller has been released.
Manager: Tony Pulis has never been relegated as a manager, and that's quite some achievement with the likes of Gillingham, Bristol City , Plymouth and Portsmouth on his CV prior to Stoke. That is one of the few things Stoke have going for them this season. The Stoke fans sing “Swing Low Sweet Chariot” to opposition supporters who mock their style of play, and it’s hard not to admire their collective sense of humour, but reading the popular Oatcake message board reveals a fan base increasingly concerned with the way Pulis has his team playing and the declining results it’s achieving. Pulis has always played this way, but then he’s always been up against it financially and working without resources. Stoke actually have money to spend now, and are settled in the Premiership, so it’s difficult to know why he doesn’t at least try and adopt some different B and C plans. He’s been fully vindicated throughout his career - he’s never been relegated after all – but can this really continue in what’s supposed to be the best league in the world? Survival through intimidation? I have my doubts.
Sack Race Odds – A wide variety of odds for Pulis ranging from 33/1 with Blue Square which puts him the sixth least likely manager to be sacked first, right down to 14/1 with Sky Bet which makes him the seventh most likely.
This Season: At the end of the 2010/11 season a thumping 5-0 FA Cup semi final win by Stoke against Bolton destroyed the Trotters who lost five of their last six games and were then relegated last season. Having finished with five defeats and six draws from their last 12 matches The Potters must now beware a similar fate. Last year they increasingly looked like a team that had been found out, and although Ricardo Fuller was really looking his age his release this summer has robbed the squad of a lot of what little flair it had left. It took Alan Pardew to show the rest of the league the way last season: double marking Stoke's wingers, forcing them to go exclusively down the middle and then playing a very high back line in the knowledge that they didn't have the pace to exploit the space in behind. Newcastle won comfortably at the Britannia Stadium and QPR followed it up with a win of their own a week later. If Stoke were found out, then the summer signings of Jamie Ness and Michael Kightly don't exactly smack of them trying anything new and exciting this season. They're in real trouble in my opinion.
Odds: Stoke will finish 12th according the bookmakers, with relegation odds of 6/1 or 7/1.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… Moe the Bartender: Ugly to look at, respected by nobody, rarely clean, probably into some weird stuff sexually.
In 140 characters or less… To the depths of despair on and off the pitch and back again. Likeable team and manager. A little naïve. Possibly too far too soon.
Last Season: Led initially by Rickie Lambert, later joined by the astute acquisition of Billy Sharp, and supplemented by the always excellent Adam Lallana, Southampton were a treat to watch last year and deserved their promotion. It looked for a long time like the title would be theirs but they eventually succumbed to Reading’s awesome run of 23 victories from their last 30 matches and took second place. It represented a back to back promotion for the Saints and a triumph for manager Nigel Adkins, for so long unfairly known only as the physio made good at Scunthorpe but now a Premiership manager.
Transfers: Perhaps got a little carried away with their new found television money initially and immediately spunked £6m on Jay Rodriguez from Burnley which seemed a little excessive, and are apparently set to do the same on Blackpool’s Matt Phillips. Northern Ireland midfielder Steve Davis has arrived from Rangers and Nathaniel Clyne from Crystal Palace. Left back Dan Harding has left for Nottingham Forest, and goalkeeper Bartosz Bialkowski has gone to Notts County which judging by his calamitous cameo against Blackpool last year is a great loss to comedy.
Manager: Nigel Adkins is known as the physio who became the successful manager of Scunthorpe United – and there are a couple of elements in that sentence that meant he probably had to wait a lot longer than he should have done for a chance at a club like Southampton. Firstly, the physio thing was seen as a bit of a gimmick, and it was perhaps assumed that he was only succeeding at Glanford Park because he knew the players so well and they liked him so much. Secondly, as he was at Scunthorpe, it looked for a while like he was only finishing off the good work that Brian Laws did prior to his appointment before he jumped ship to Sheffield Wednesday. But Adkins did a wonderful job there – recovering from the loss of Andy Keogh, Billy Sharp and Jermaine Beckford from his promotion side to make a decent fist of the Championship first time around, discovering Martin Paterson in Stoke’s reserves at the same time. Then when they were relegated he brought them straight back via the play offs, defeating much fancied MK Dons and Millwall in the end of season knockout. He kept them up that time as well. At Southampton he’s shown the value of transfer market knowledge, a positive outlook and attitude on and off the pitch, and an attractive style of play to win friends and points on the way to back to back promotions. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer, more deserving bloke.
Sack Race Odds – Second behind Michael Laudrup overall, but many outlets have him as their 4/1 or 7/2 favourite and Stan James has him at a slim 3/1.
This Season: There are a lot of similarities to be drawn between this Southampton set up and the Norwich side that won promotion into the Premiership this time last year. Southampton are investing in young players from the Championship and below – and have shown a willingness to spend money when the likes of Jay Rodriguez and Matt Phillips become available. They’ve been led to two consecutive promotions by an ultra-impressive young manager and they’re led in attack by a cumbersome yet prolific centre forward picked out of the lower leagues. With all that in mind, they should be absolutely fine, because Norwich were last season, but 2011/12 was the first time in a decade that all three promoted teams stayed up and I’d suggest it’s unlikely to happen again. I fancy Southampton’s chances the least. If Lambert can’t do for them what Holt did for Norwich – and I’m really not convinced he can – then I don’t know where the goals are coming from. Rodriguez is overpriced and Billy Sharp relies on chances falling to him in the penalty box, often from defensive mistakes. He’ll find the waits between those a lot longer and more arduous than he did in the division below. I like Nigel Adkins, and I like a lot of his players, but unlike Norwich I’ve just got a suspicion they’ve climbed too high too soon. Likely to concede too many goals to survive.
Odds: Relegation favourites, longest price 11/8 with SkyBet and others but 5/4 with most.
If they were a monarch from history… Philip V of Spain: Ruled for 24 years with only minor scrapes along the way, disappeared for a bit when his son Louis (Portsmouth) took over the throne. Returned for a further 22 years after Louis’ sudden death.
In 140 characters or less… Don’t they play lovely football? Count the passes with me… 37, 38, 39, 3-what do you mean they’re not going anywhere? #philistine
Last Season: Swansea did two things well last season. Firstly they took their attractive style of play from the Championship, refused to compromise any ideals, and made it work in the Premier League. While it’s hard to imagine them going about it any other way it’s worth remembering that Tony Mowbray’s West Brom previously passed their way out of the second tier only to then serve as whipping boys in the top flight. Swansea certainly aren’t the first team to come into the top flight and initially catch the established teams napping with a unique way of going about things – Phil Brown’s Hull City took the Premier League by storm when they first arrived in it, but then won only one of their last 17 games and were lucky to survive thanks to other results on the last day. The second thing the Swans did well, therefore, was play the January transfer window well by bringing in Gylfi Sigurdsson on loan to give them an added piece of quality just when it seemed they may have run out of steam. In fact, Brendan Rodgers played the transfer market excellently all year with Steven Caulker and Danny Graham other notable successes and even Wayne Routledge finally getting a first ever Premiership goal in his nine club career.
Transfers: Joe Allen’s outrageous £15m transfer to Liverpool is the headline, but missing out on the permanent signing of Sigurdsson is just as big a loss, as is Caulker returning to Spurs after a season long loan deal. That’s three quality players taken out of a borderline team. In their stead Jonathan de Guzman looks like the pick of the bunch on loan from Villarreal with Chico (£2m, Genoa) and Michu (£2m, Vallecano) joining him through the entrance doors.
Manager: On the field Michael Laudrup’s career was incredibly successful. He won La Liga five years in a row in the early 1990s – four times with Barcelona with whom he also won the European Cup in 1992, and then again after moving to Real Madrid in 1995. He won 104 caps for Denmark, scored 37 goals and won Euro 92 and the Confederations Cup in 1995. He has been named the best Danish footballer of all time, and the best foreign import to Spain in the last 25 years by a poll conducted in 1999.
Things started well in management too. He helped coach Denmark to the knock out stages of the 2002 World Cup then took up the head coach position at Brondby where he won two Danish Cups and the Danish league in 2005. They also finished as runner up three times. He was linked with a return to Real Madrid but ended up moving to the smaller La Liga team in the Spanish capital Getafe where he reached the final of the Copa Del Rey and the quarter final of the UEFA Cup. Spells with Sppartak Moscow – where he was sacked after seven months – and Mallorca, who were seriously strapped for cash and sacked him a month into his second season in charge for comments made to the press, were less successful.
Sack Race Odds – Favourite for the sack, longest price 8/1 with Ladbrokes and others, shortest price 6/1 with William Hill and Stan James.
This Season: There’s so much to admire about Swansea. The way they’ve climbed up through four divisions of the league ladder, moved to one of the more atmospheric new grounds, and done it all in real style on the pitch has been an inspiration to many clubs. Their chairman Huw Jenkins never fails to be anything other than impressive both in his words and actions and he has been able to maintain the club’s progress over the last few years despite clubs picking off three of his managers. However, all that said, I fear for them this season. There are little reasons for that – I read Michael Laudrup saying this week that he won’t be making sweeping changes to the way in which they play, but will be telling his wingers to come much narrower around the central striker. That he doesn’t realise that is a monumental change from the way Swansea have been going about things for years now is a concern. But the big reason I think they’ll struggle is a very simple story as old as time about too much talent leaving the club all at once. The defence has lost Steven Caulker, the midfield has lost Sigurdsson and Allen, and Rodgers is no longer in the dug out. I just don’t think they have enough about them to survive that. So, as Alan Sugar would say, with regret…
Odds: Fifth favourites for the drop with 2/1 widely available. Shortest prices 15/8 and 7/4.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… Ned Flanders. Absolutely perfect in every way and held up as a model for others to live their lives by. Secretly getting on everybody’s tits.
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