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Relegation Battle
at 05:28 13 Jul 2014

Let me be the first to announce that we're in a relegation battle in the 2014-2015 season. It's obvious that even the team concurs with this assertion by simply looking at the team site has us in 18th (and being relegated if the season ended today).
(see http://www.swanseacity.net/fixtures-results/league-table/index.aspx). I will disregard any delusional arguments stating alphabetical nonsense.

Last year, I was dismayed that many "chicken little" (my term) fans at the slightest downturn (or challenge) would panic and would profess that the Swans were going down. So, I suggest that each poster make their baseline prediction for the position that they think that we'll reside at the end of the season. Then, we can mock these posters who start panicking when the Swans lose 3 or 4 games in a row in January.

For me, we have a chance to be relegated in any year if beset with a huge swath of critical injuries or if we have horrific additions that don't pan out. However, I believe that annually we should finish somewhere in the middle of the pack (8-12) and that we could poke up in the top 6 if we get breaks and maybe 14th if we don't get breaks.

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Napoli Scouting Report
at 02:15 18 Feb 2014

With the USA (MLS) in preseason, I had some downtime to write a scouting report on Napoli. I am not a Napoli expert, but I composed this report based upon reviewing 9 matches that occurred in the last 2 months. I did not use any analytic tools, but only observation on tape (not live). Napoli fans, feel free to provide feedback.

In many ways, Napoli reminds me of Swansea with their possession styled offense; small, quick wide midfielders; center backs lacking speed; center forward with quality in the box; poor at corner kicks; and a general lack of team size. While Napoli is the better side (in my opinion), Swansea can beat Napoli. But it will be quite difficult, requiring an extraordinary effort with technical and tactical proficiency.

Napoli is the first team that dropped to the Europa league after earning 12 points in Champions league group play. I submit that Napoli is the best team from the Champions league this year.

Napoli consistently plays a 4-2-3-1 formation. Napoli is an attacking juggernaut. They have extremely talented players attacking in waves from many parts of the pitch. Their defense is solid, but can be exposed in several ways and the weakest part of their team is the defensive midfield - though both have improved with acquisitions in the January transfer window. Jorginho has been a sensational addition for the defensive midfield and with the injuries and a loan to the left backs, Faouzi Ghoulam has been essential.

Here is Napoli's position depth chart and player evaluations:
Goalkeeper
1. #25 - Pepe Reina (on loan from Liverpool) - recovered from a hamstring injury in late December. He is a competent goal keeper that moves quicker than expected; I'm not a big fan. He can be eratic with his positioning.
2. #1 - Rafael - Summer transfer from Santos. He filled in while Reina was injured. Meh. I don't expect for him to play while Reina is healthy. At best, he was average. At times, he takes risks dribbling the ball unnecessarily. If the ball is at his feet, Bony needs to assume that he's going to dribble - get a cheapy!
3. #15 - Roberto Colombo - Did not play.

Left Back (1)
1. #31 - Faouzi Ghoulam - January transfer from St Etienne. Tall, rangy left back and the only Napoli starter that is a natural left footer. Since his transfer, he's taken over responsibility for right sided corner kicks. Ghoulam delivers set pieces on a rope, low and hard. He takes some free kicks, too - generally 30 yards to 40 yards out from goal and centrally. Tactically, he can be exposed when up the field too far - additionally, loses his man when opponents move the ball quickly on the ground. He has problems staying connected with his new teammates, specifically Albiol. He's still better than a healthy Reveillere.
2. #2 - Anthony Reveillere - tweaked hamstring on 2/5, did not play on 2/12. At best, he was adequate. He didn't get forward and he was the weakest defender in the back. I was going to propose attacking at him continuously - so his injury was fortuitous for Napoli. On the bench, but he did not play against Sassuolo on Sunday, 2/16/2014. So, he's a possible participant - though I doubt it.
*3. #27 - Pablo Amero - January loan to West Ham; Summer transfer from Udinese. Young player with upside, but he's gone for now.
*4. #18 - Zuniga - August 2013 knee injury - possibly gone for season.

Center Back (2)
1. #21 - Fedrico Fernandez. While he platoons with Britos, I consider him the better center back over Albiol. He's the primary target on corner kicks. He provides crisp, ball on the ground, passes for distance. Fernandez is a solid defender that is more apt to step up into the gap between the CB and DMs - he did this consistently to slow down Totti in the first Roma match. When Fernandez makes a steal and his first touch is to dribble into transition, it's a very loose touch. Swansea should immediately pressure before his first touch is taken to dispossess him and transition into an ill-formed defense. Fernandez is a quality 1v1 defender, shutting down Milan's Super Mario on the dribble.
2. #33 - Raul Albiol - Summer transfer from Real Madrid. Can be exposed by quick players or quick passes around and past him. He is an adequate tackler, strong in the air (because of his bulk). But he lacks quick feet and he scared to be beat on the dribble by quicker players. When threatened by attack, he retreats into his own box. Shots from 25 yards can be quite effective. He has started every match that I reviewed.
3. #5 - Miguel Britos - started 2 games in early January. He's better in the air than Fernandez but not particularly defensively strong. He does come on late in games with a Napoli lead as an extra defender.
4. #4 - Henrique - Winter transfer from Palmeiras. He has only played spot minutes at the end of matches. So, I don't expect a big role for him, but I don't have much information on him with this relatively small sample size. Mostly, he's been playing DM for Napoli.

Right Back (1)
1. #11 - Christian Maggio (co-captain) - plays every game and every minute which is why I don't have a backup for him. Maggio carefully picks his time to go forward. When he does, his crosses can be effective. Maggio isn't particularly quick and he was occasionally beaten mostly by quicker players (Swansea midfielders - Dyer specifically could find success here) and at times by guile (e.g., Pablo).

Defensive Midfielders (2)
1. #8 - Jorginho - January transfer from Verona. He was a critical piece to stabilizing the defensive midfield though he is more of an attacking midfielder. Exceptional on the ball - his first touch is golden with a mixture of drags, soft and hard touches. He can turn on a dime (or pence). Jorginho is an above average passer who looks to make long entry passes either wide to his wide midfielders or overlapping fullbacks. With his propensity for going forward, he can unexpectantly unbalance the defensive structure - this must be exposed by Swansea in transition to be most effective. However, he makes deep runs into the box and he can score. He shouldn't be underestimated.
If Napoli is ahead late in the game, another defensive midfielder will be brought on and Jorginho could be moved forward.
2. #88 - Gokhan Inler - is the weak link in the defensive midfield. He is slow to react; tactically is unaware of problems until too late. Inler is a strong, physical player who is tough in tackles and in the air on corner kicks. He fancies himself a long-range shooter, but I'd be less concerned about it as long as pressure is applied. Inler had a field day picking apart the Lazio defense with long passes, because Lazio didn't put any pressure on him.
3. #85 - Valon Behrami - injured most of January. He seemed to be a more reliable stay-at-home defensive midfielder, but I only saw him in a match in late December. Late in the match against Caligari, he was connected with the back 4, ensuring a point in that match. This wasn't as prevalent in his absence. If time permits, I'll supplement this report after re-reviewing the match.
4. #20 - Blerim Dzemaili - with Behrami's absence, he tried to fill the role sitting between the center backs. He was acceptable, but he doesn't effectively communicate when he goes forward to have defensive rotation. His role should be minimal - if not, it would be to the Swansea advantage.
5. #22 - Josip Radosevic - Summer transfer from Hejduk Split. A few minutes at the end of the game - with the addition of Jorginho (and to a lesser degree Henrique) his impact and minutes are reduced.

Wide Midfielders (2) - all very small and very quick
1. #14 - Dries Mertens - Summer transfer from PSV - is a fantastic player. His technical skills are amazing. When he attacks into the box from the left, he feints to the left, touch with his outside of the right foot to make space and shoots to the far post side netting. He's very good at this - to defend against this, the right DM must drop into the box and Chico needs to provide second defender coverage. Mertens will play defense. He used to take all corner kicks until Ghoulam joined the team - now he takes left-sided corner kicks. He generally takes all set pieces that are out wide. His service is generally accurate, but he doesn't have many dominating targets.
He must be contained and forced to turn backwards. He's too good to have many open looks at crosses and shots.
2. #7 - Jose Callejon - Summer transfer from Real Madrid - is the quickest player on the team. He has an uncanny ability to shoot the ball on the full volley with power and accuracy. Callejon doesn't exert himself playing defense. His shooting otherwise can be eratic. Callejon is a pussy - going down at the slightest touch, rolling around like he was shot. Canas needs to destroy him early. If Callejon's on the left, attack in that direction because Callejon won't provide the proper support and Ghoulam can be a defensive liability.
3. #24 - Lorenzo Insigne - is a upcoming player who I like better than Callejon, but is still coming into his own. He is a terrific passer (similar to Pablo's feed to Routledge against Cardiff) that makes incisive passes to get his teammates behind the defense. When Mertens is on the bench, he used to take the corners - but with Ghoulam on the field, he may only take the left sided corner kicks.
Insigne is going to be the class of this team in a few years, but at this time, he can be inconsistent and can be thrown off his game by rough play. At times, Insigne can lose his confidence - so he should be thumped early.

Attacking (or central Midfielder) (1)
1. #17 - Marek Hamsik - is the best player on this team. He suffered an injury in late November and he's been coming back slowly since then. He played 80 minutes against Sassoula on Sunday; 75 minutes last Wednesday against Roma; 82 minutes against Milan the previous week-end; 65 minutes against Roma the Wednesday before last; 75 minutes against Lazio at the end of January, 90 against Chievo; 60 minutes against Atalanta.
Hamsik can shoot with power and accuracy with either foot. His vision and work rate are top-notch. He's quality in all facets of the game. The only weakness is that he's barely 90 minute match fit and his technique suffers late in games. However, this weakness may be lessening as he continues to play.
Covers much of the ground, dropping back to get the ball from the backs, flashing into corners and works off Higuain. He's a tall rangy player. I really like Hamsik.
2. #19 - Goran Pandev - is a scrapper. While Hamsik was out, he filled in admirably. He doesn't drop as deeply as Hamsik, but is more likely to push up into the forward position. His shooting accuracy is lacking. He's sufficiently talented to fill-in for Hamsik, but he's just not as good.
He plays with hunger, desire and he's willing to eat an opponent's liver to gain an advantage.

Striker (1)
1. #9 -Gonzalo Higuain - Summer transfer from Real Madrid - is a goal scorer. While he's not exceptionally fast, he is successful because he moves quickly into space in the box. This is key. While others are static, he moves into goal scoring spaces and he converts. Typically, he shoots to the far post with accuracy. He can receive the ball and distribute it wide. He's a very good passer.
Higuain is willing to drop into midfield and allow the quick midfielders (such as Insigne) to get into the forward space. He can shoot with either foot. When he takes on defenders (which he generally doesn't do much), he uses tight ball control and guile to beat defenders.
He's money. While I like Bony's game, Higuain is just better at scoring goals though Bony has more tools.
If Higuain can't play (which I doubt), this will be a tremendous loss for Napoli - he's a real talent.
2. #91 - Duvan Zapata - Summer transfer from Estiudiantes, Tall, powerful forward that complements Higuain package. I saw him in the U20's for Colombia. He's a beast that has the body type that has been successful against Swansea (e.g., Carroll, Crouch) lately. Zapata is unrefined technically and tactically. He has potential, but he's not near to this level yet.
On set pieces, Zapata is too static - relying solely on his athleticism. I think he's going to be a player (in the future).
Swansea would be fortunate to have to deal with Zapata's size and athleticism rather than Higuain's skill. Pray for Zapata while planning for Higuain.

Napoli Expected line-up:
GK: #25 - Reina
Def (R to L): #11 - Maggio, #21 - Fernandez, #33 - Albiol, #31 - Ghoulam
DM (R to L): #8 - Jorginho, #88 - Inler
MF (R to L): #7 - Callejon, #17 - Hamsik, #14 - Mertens
Fwd: #9 - Higuain
This assumes that all players haven't suffered an injury or any our suspended. I'm expecting former Liverpool gaffer Rafael Benitez to start his strongest line-up. It's possible that #85 Behrami could replace Inler. Also, #24 Insigne could start over #14 Mertens or #7 Callejon, but I'm extremely skeptical on this move.
Given these starters, if the game is close, I would expect #19 Pandev to be subbed on for Hamsik in the 75th minute, as he done in the past. However, Hamsik is working himself back to 90 minute player as he returns from injury.

Napoli offensive tactics and tendencies
Napoli attacks in waves with all of their top 4 qualified to finish - even their bench have dangerous threats. The attackers play egoless, exchanging positions and moving without the ball. Napoli will not stop attacking with confidence late into the game. No small lead will be safe.
Napoli can play a small passing game in tight spaces or unleash a long ball (but generally the ball is on the ground).

Napoli defensive tactics and tendencies
Beyond my observations of individuals, there are some Napoli tendencies that can be exploited.
The defense is susceptible to quick intricate passes through the midfield especially between left center back and the left back, Albiol and Ghoulam and in the gap around Inler. Gaps form between the midfield and defense.
The defense is susceptible to balls over the top and through balls. Because of their lack of pace and with Ghoulam going forward it leaves space to exploit.
The back four will drop deep into the 6 yard box when the ball is on the end line (which is ok), but the defensive midfielders don't shut down these holes nor does the back 4 cover these holes either.
Napoli can be slow to shut down the wing play. Swansea needs to get the ball centrally, then get the ball wide to allow for entry passes behind and in front of the defense.
If behind, Napoli play with more urgency that can induce unwise tackles leading to cards and set pieces.
Napoli will overload the ball side of the field, allowing a quick change of the point of attack to the weak side to be exploited.

Napoli offensive corner kick tactics
Napoli has a few variations. Ghoulam will take all right sided corner kicks. Mertens will take all left sided corner kicks. If Mertens is not in the game, Insigne will take his place serving corner kicks.
Napoli doesn't do typical short corners - the closest they come to them is putting the ball to the near upper corner of the penalty area. One alternative is that Insigne will play the ball to Jorginho (at the top of the penalty area) and Insigne will loop around him. Jorginho will either give the ball for Insigne to shoot/serve or drive into the box with the ball.
The vast majority of Napoli's corners will start with Hamsik in the 6 yard box between goal middle and near post. Fernandez typically runs to the near post to flick on the ball. Fernandez can feint the near post and stay far post 12 yards from goal. Fernandez is the primary target on corners. Albiol will wander about in the box doesn't seem to have any desire to be involved. Higuian starts near the far post just outside of the 6 with the goal of converting any trash that gets through the box.
Over a month ago, with Pandev replacing Hamsik, Pandev would generally start at the far post and 6 yard box, then run directly at the corner kick taker, creating space at the far post, but nothing really was generated from these attempts.
More recently, Jorginho has been running through the box for the flick (rather than Fernandez).

Napoli defensive corner kick tactics
Napoli defends corner kicks primarily in 1 way: no man on either post, man-to-man with 2 free defenders, Hamsik and Jorginho. Hamsik takes a position inside the 6 yard box between the near post and the 6 yard line. Jorginho is outside of the 6 perhaps a step or 2 closer to the middle of the goal than Hamsik.
The only variation that I've seen is when Roma was taking short corners, Jorginho would line up on the end line 10 yards from the corner with a teammate marking the potential short corner attacker. In earlier matches, Napoli wouldn't send out 2 on short corners - so this must be explored. If Napoli doesn't mark the short corner appropriately, Swansea should carry the ball into the box until this is stopped.
An alternative to this (short corner) Swansea tactic is to send a player from far post past the near post bringing his defender and inducing Hamsik to come forward (and out of position). Then, seal off Hamsik on the back side with another attacker (and his defender). Hamsik is too good an athlete to be allowed a free clearance of the ball. Then, Swansea should send two targets (near post and far post) with the intention of putting the headed balls on the ground at either post.

Napoli's 3 best players:
1. #17 - Marek Hamsik
2. #9 - Gonzalo Higuain
3. #14 - Dries Mertens

Napoli's fixture congestion
Napoli has an easier fixture list than Swansea.

Napoli qualified for the Copa Italia final with a away-and-home tie over 2nd place Roma on 2/5/2014 and 2/12/2014 with scores of 2-3 and 3-0. Napoli beat last place (in Serie A) Sassouli 2-0 on Sunday while Swansea was battling Everton in the FA Cup. Napoli started most of their starters except for goal keeper Renia, wide midfielder Callejon and defensive midfielders Jorginho and Inler (all were not on the bench) with Rafael, Insigne and Dzemaili and Behrami replacing them respectively. On Monday, 2/24/2014, Napoli host 11th place Genoa in the sandwich match while Swansea travels to Liverpool on Sunday - but then has to travel to Napoli for the match on 2/27/2014. Following the Europa matches, Napoli will play 17th place (1 point above relegation) Livorna. As a reminder, Swansea hosts much-improved Crystal Palace.

Currently in 3rd place in Serie A, Napoli holds the remaining 2014-2015 Champions League slot with Fiorentina 6 points behind with 14 games remaining. It's unlikely for Napoli to win the Serie A with Juventus 13 points ahead of them and Roma 4 points ahead and a game in hand.

It is absolutely essential for Napoli to qualify for the Champions league in order to be able to continue to improve their team. This is their primary priority for the remainder of the year. Europa ambitions will be cast aside if next year's Champions league is in peril, but at this time this is not an issue.

What does Swansea need to do to win?
1. Possess the ball more than 65%. Because of Napoli's potent attack, minimize Napoli chances - shorten the game.
2. While maintaining possession, they must be precise in their passing in midfield to eliminate quick transitions especially in the middle third of the field.
3. Pressure the ball high, forcing errors that can quickly be transitioned into attack
4. Tightly mark Napoli in the Swansea box. Higuain moves exceptionally well, if open he will finish. This may be the item most likely to fail leading to Swansea losing the match.
5. Play the ball quickly. If the ball is moving quickly around the field, Napoli will create gaps in the Swansea attack.
6. Composure in the Napoli penalty area - Swansea must finish their chances.

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