Nourishing 2-1 win at Luton Town surprisingly banked, QPR now face another daunting trip to a play-off rival and the flying form of Nottingham Forest.

Forest (15-10-10 DDWDWW 9th) v QPR (17-8-11 LDWLLW 4th)

Mercantile Credit Trophy >>> Wednesday March 16, 2022 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Weather — Pouring with rain followed by four straight days of sunshine >>> City Ground, Nottingham

It’s been a remarkable season at Athletic deep-dive favourites Nottingham Forest.

Chris Hughton has never been a particularly inspiring manager, either in playing style or mannerisms, but with two promotions from this division under his belt already he does, at the very least, have the reputation of being a steady pair of hands. You might not exactly moisten up at the thought of going to watch his team play, but you can usually guarantee that it won’t descend into some Sunderland-style catastrophe.

Forest are the sort of nutty club that can usually do with that sort of moderately sane person in charge of the creche. Another 14 permanent or loan signings this season takes them to 107 players through the door in the last six seasons. There have been 19 permanent or temporary managers here in the last ten years — Sabri Lamouchi the only one to complete a whole season and start the next one, and even then he was gone five games into the following campaign after a collapse that cost them a top six spot the likes of which have rarely been seen before or since at this level.

Their success through the 1980s means a whole host of boys who grew up watching great teams on this ground and were inspired to pursue a profession writing about the sport are now at a certain age and point in their journalism career where you cannot move without bumping into another 5,000-word think-piece on the club. Not since Newcastle were in this division has a club been under the print press microscope quite as much as this one, and the coverage usually follows the same pattern. First, massively overboard praise of whoever the new boss might be (whisper it quietly, could it be… A NEW CLOUGHIE?), and a whole load of But Of Course analysis of just where it started to go so, so right. He will, almost certainly, have “changed the mood in the city” and “brought everybody together”. This year innovative Barnsley CEO Dane Murphy was added to a chaotic and crowded executive structure, bringing with him the philosophy that lead to a surprise play-off push at Oakwell last season and is built, among other things, around not signing players over the age of 26 who have no resale value — an event in which Forest were reigning Olympic champions. After six months of being lauded for this fine, new, forward-thinking approach, the club produced a lengthy, lucrative, competition-busting, eleventh-hour contract for Bournemouth’s 30-year-old centre back Steve Cook, which you may think contradicts the strategy and is fairly typical of the madness that goes on here — but, apparently, you’d be wrong, although the stretch to why that “made sense on this occasion” was so long it disappeared off into the distance and I couldn’t quite see it. When results start to dip, the tone changes to “the signs were there all along” and frighteningly interesting little tid-bits about how players were “stunned” to find all the washing machines in the laundry room broken start seeping out. Once another eight new signing have been made in the transfer window and made not a blind bit of difference it’s time for another change of boss at which point the cycle starts again and, whisper it quietly, some people Trentside think this one might just be… A NEW CLOUGHIE.

Steve Cooper, meanwhile, didn’t exactly rock anybody’s world down at Swansea City. Buoyed by parachute payments, and an £80k a week striker in Andre Ayew, he was then furnished with an outstanding crop of Premier League loans thanks to his youth football connections and reputations with the England youth sides — Rhian Brewster, Connor Gallagher, Marc Guehi, Conor Hourihane, Freddie Woodman and Morgan Gibbs White all blew through there in reasonably short order. The result was two play-off failures, playing the sort of holier-than-thou football that risked boring anybody who watched it for too long to death, and the very second the money dried up he walked out having spent all summer making come-to-bed eyes at any other club without a manager of their own.

And yet, through it all, somehow, Forest got all good. Hughton initially provided exactly the sort of meltdown he’s specifically there to prevent, and it’s only that seven-game start to the season in which they took just a single point that is holding them back as far as they are. Cooper has revolutionised the team, blowing away not only the staid, uninspiring, rigid, straight-line set up of his predecessor, but also playing an altogether more thrilling and exciting style of the sport than anything he ever remotely threatened to lay on in South Wales. With the division’s outstanding young talent Brennan Johnson to the fore, and Djed Spence weirdly morphing from somebody who used to play for Middlesbrough every now and again to somebody who might soon be playing for Juventus every now and again, this is a thrillingly dangerous opponent to face. Their last gasp equaliser at Loftus Road in November one of nine goals scored in injury time this season — always a sign of a team confident in its skin and happy to keep plugging away to the end without giving up. At Bristol City they were 1-0 down after 92 minutes and won. Only Fulham have taken more points than them from round eight onwards, and this persistent push towards the play-offs has been married with an FA Cup run for the ages which has already slain Leicester and Arsenal and now brings a clash with Liverpool this weekend — their first quarter final of any sort since 1996, and that was against Bayern Munich which gives you an indication of the passage of time.

Not, therefore, exactly the sort of team you’d choose for QPR to face away from home on a wet Wednesday night at the business end of the season while our own form is on the slide. And that’s without even getting into the done-to-death business of the mere sight of The City Ground turning Rangers sides into quivering, wasted pieces of jelly. One win in 37 visits, yadda yadda yadda.

But then, we were saying that about Luton at the weekend too. A particularly poor February in which Rangers spurned chances to cement their top six place against also-rans Hull, Millwall and Cardiff, and divisional whipping boys Barnsley, has now opened out into a home straight in which Rangers play Luton, Forest, Huddersfield, Sheff Utd, Preston, Stoke and Swansea all away, and still have to welcome the Blades and Fulham to Loftus Road. “We’re done” was the general consensus post Cardiff collapse, and that’s absolutely how I felt. Difficult to see where the next win was coming from, and certainly not at Kenilworth Road against another of the Championship’s bang-in-form teams — one that hates us and was out for all manner of revenge after incidents in the November meeting to boot. Even at half time, Rangers distinctly second best, I’d have happily offered you any price at all on a QPR win, and yet that’s what we ended up with and for all the recent woe-is-me angst, it moved us back up to fourth (now fifth) in the table. Much like Forest’s poor start hamstringing them, our excellent one means we don’t have to be that good to make the six from here — a point I made several weeks ago and have regretted ever since as the team has embarked on massively over-enthusiastic examination of the theory. Bastards.

Luton weren’t all that. Few teams at this level are. I don’t fancy us at all tonight, and to be honest after the win at the weekend as long as we don’t fall in a hole against Peterborough for the third time this season in a couple of days’ time then I’ll view that as a successful week and it should be enough to have us in the play-off spots for the international break regardless of what happens tonight. But Sunday did serve as a useful reminder to us all, and hopefully the team as well, that we’re not as bad as we’ve looked for the last few weeks, and nor are all these supposedly impossible away games coming up as daunting as we’re perhaps making out. Again, I absolutely do not fancy us tonight, if you come from the future now and tell me this is to be our latest 4-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest I wouldn’t be that surprised, but as I said at the weekend perhaps for the next few weeks our version of Man Utd’s “lads, it’s Tottenham” could be “lads, it’s the Championship”.

Links >>> Cooper turnaround — Interview >>> Bogey ground — History >>> Premier League referee — Referee >>> Official Website >>> Nottingham Post — Local Press >>> LTLF — Message Board >>> Bandy and Shinty — Fanzine >>> Forza Garibaldi — Blog >>> LFW Reciprocal Interview >>> Matchday with Max — YouTube Channel

Below the fold

Team News: The old adage about never changing a winning team almost certainly won’t apply to QPR this evening despite the nourishing victory at Luton on Sunday. Warbs Warburton took responsibility for the recent loss at Blackburn, saying he should have freshened the team up after a gruelling 2-1 win with ten men against Blackpool a few days prior, so will surely be planning changes for the trip to The City Ground. Dion Sanderson is back from the three-game ban he picked up for the red card in that Pool game, but I reckon Sam McCallum for Lee Wallace is a likelier change with Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson posing electric pace threats in wide areas. Luke Amos, Charlie Austin and Chris Willock all made positive impacts from the bench at Kenilworth Road to push for starts. Lyndon Dykes has suffered a set back, and we’ve now been told it’s a hamstring injury, so he won’t play here or against Peterborough at the weekend but has nevertheless been named in the Scotland squad for their forthcoming play-offs, which feels like a bit of a liberty. Seny Dieng remains sidelined.

QPR missed out on the signing of Steve Cook from Bournemouth in January when Forest arrived late with a more lucrative contract offer, but the centre back won’t feature tonight having been injured at the weekend. Loaned wing back Max Lowe is also missing.

Elsewhere: Having botched a home match with Peterborough last week, now Bournemouth have somehow contrived to only draw at Dean Court against the division’s basketcase Reading despite taking a seventh minute lead through Dominic Solanke. The Cherries’ run in from here looks tough — for a start they’re away at Sporting Huddersfield this weekend, just three points back in third ahead of tonight’s trip to Millwall.

Blackburn, five points back in fourth, finally returned to form in the second half against Wayne Rooney’s Derby County, blitzing their way to a 3-1 with Bradley Dack back on form to snap a run of one goal and one win in nine. Boro moved into the top six with a routine 2-0 win at Birmingham. Sheffield Red Stripe and Lutown are the two immediate chasers, two points further back on 57 each, with the former away at Blackpool this evening and the latter hosting Preston Knob End. Coventry, potentially the last of the realistic chasers although West Brom did seal a surprise 1-0 against Tarquin and Rupert yesterday, are at home to Hull.

At the other end Reading’s creditable point on the South Coast wasn’t enough to stop them slipping to within one point of the bottom three with Barnsley the latest side to type ‘Bristol City’ into the promotional box for a free three points. The Tykes have gone from two wins in 34 league and cup games to four in eight with two draws and may yet pull off a remarkable escape. It’s starting to look too much for Derby though, and Peterborough surely need a home win against Swanselona tonight to stay in realistic contention.

Cardiff v Stoke tonight as well. Jesus.

Referee: Premier League referee Peter Bankes, last seen failing to punish Nahki Wells for travelling in our 1-0 home win against Leeds in 2019/20, steps down from the top flight for this game. Details. There is some suggestion this morning that he may have been replaced by fellow Prem referee Jon Moss.

Form

Forest: Forest began the season with six defeats and a draw in seven games and sat bottom of the table bar Derby’s points deduction. Only Fulham have picked up more points than them since then with 15 wins, nine draws and just four defeats. They come into this game on a run of just one defeat in 13 league and cup games — nine of those have been wins including home victories against Arsenal and Leicester. They’re unbeaten in eight at The City Ground and have lost just one of their last 14 games here, 1-0 to Huddersfield who they subsequently beat here in the FA Cup recently. Reading were hammered 4-0 on this ground at the weekend with the first goal from Keinan Davis coming after 17 seconds. Lewis Grabban is the top scorer here with 13. Jack Colback’s deflected equaliser at Loftus Road is one of nine goals Forest have scored in stoppage time this season for a gain of eight points.

QPR: The 2-1 win at Luton on Sunday was only QPR’s second victory in nine outings and snapped a run of four consecutive away defeats without scoring a goal. The winner from Rob Dickie was his fifth of the season, but his first since mid-August, 33 games ago, having scored four times in his first five appearances in 2021/22. It took QPR to 13 points gained from losing positions away from home, more than any other club in the division. Andre Gray’s brilliantly taken penalty was his first from the spot outside shoot-outs since March 2017 when he scored one as part of a brace for Burnley in a 3-2 loss at Swansea. QPR, of course, have an infamously bad record at The City Ground, with the 1-0 victory here under Steve McClaren in 2018/19 there only maximum on this ground in 37 visits (W1 D16 L20) — a run which includes a 5-0 defeat, a 5-2, and five separate 4-0 losses. Rangers’ aggregate score on this ground stands at 68-21.

Prediction: We’re indebted to The Art of Football for once again agreeing to sponsor our Prediction League and provide prizes. You can get involved by lodging your prediction here or sample the merch from our sponsor’s QPR collection here. Last year’s champion Mick_S was the only person in the world who called the Luton score right and this week says…

“I think we can do it again. I don’t quite fancy us at Forest as I did at Luton, but stuff it, let’s have a go. This is a far more difficult match. Always a guess, but if we can handle the early pressure, I’m going again with a late smash and grab. The Luton result was just so important and I hope we can have another go. Can’t wait for this one. Could we catch them on an edgy night in Nottingham?”

Mick’s Prediction: Forest 0-1 QPR. Scorer — Ilias Chair

LFW’s Prediction: Forest 2-0 QPR. No scorer.

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superhoopdownunder added 11:37 - Mar 16 Thanks Clive We have a very good record against Luton but not against Forest. I am not confident tonight but hope I am completely wrong. Cheers
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HastingsRanger added 11:56 - Mar 16 Clive, at the time I shuddered when you did your 'we don’t have to be that good to make the six from here' piece. I know who I will be blaming, coming May, lol One thing that did show against Luton was a resolve over the course of the game. My biggest concern will be the ability to cope with their pace up front. Otherwise, I feel we are in with a shout, unless of course if it is being played at the City Ground.

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HastingsRanger added 11:56 - Mar 16 Clive, at the time I shuddered when you did your 'we don’t have to be that good to make the six from here' piece. I know who I will be blaming, coming May, lol One thing that did show against Luton was a resolve over the course of the game. My biggest concern will be the ability to cope with their pace up front. Otherwise, I feel we are in with a shout, unless of course if it is being played at the City Ground.

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enfieldargh added 11:57 - Mar 16 I'll have some of what Micks had. Great preview as always. Weirdly this trip to the City Ground holds its usual gut wrenching trepidation however if I squeeze my buttocks tightly enough together hopefully we can get something positive out of the game
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ngbqpr added 12:19 - Mar 16 I have been exiled in Nottingham for 27 years. Everything in your opening words is so true, not just the wannabe journos, but the fanbase as a whole. I’ve been listening to this shit for half my life now. Luckily for my kids, since living here, they’ve rarely been better than us, giving us ammo to repel the piss taking after the annual City Ground capitulation. I dread this fixture like no other, but with the CG in walking distance of my house, can never not go. Think of us if it’s a spanking. Not that I’m glass half empty glass about tonight’s prospects, oh no…

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extratimeR added 12:36 - Mar 16 Yes, I remember watching Spence against Arsenal earlier this season, and thinking "what the hell is he doing playing for Forest?" Then the commentator said he was on loan from Middlesbrough, I thought Jesus how good must the Middlesbrough bloke who's keeping him out? I think we have wised up a lot, noticed Wallace explaining facts of life to more than one Luton player on Sunday, ditto Dunne, I fancy us for a hard earned point tonight. Great preview as always Clive.

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Myke added 15:04 - Mar 16 Thanks Clive. If we can just get the point tonight to move onto 60, it'll be a psychological boost. We seem to be stuck in the 50's for ages
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TacticalR added 18:06 - Mar 16 Thanks for your preview. In an odd way this reminds me of us pre-Warburton. We kept talking about stability and planning (including talk of Mike Rigg's Word document containing the fourty-year plan) while frequently changing managers in search of a new Saviour. I am not sure if Cooper is the messiah, perhaps just someone who works better with younger players? We will see. I didn't realise Forest were on quite such a good run, although they aren't the only team to have beaten Reading 4-0 recently (even if we had Dykes up front at that point). Our problem since February has been a lack of creativity coupled with a lack of firepower, and with those handicaps it's pretty hard to win games, even if grit and determination got us there against Luton.

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