Aston Villa’s faith in youth and lower league prospects is sound medium and long term thinking, but a transition period is proving painful and the short term prospects hang in the balance.

Overview

A struggle against relegation from the 2012/13 Premier League is not the only thing QPR and Aston Villa have in common. Both clubs are also suffering from the decisions and strategies adopted by their senior management, but in both cases the majority of fans seem hesitant in criticising the people at the very top of the organisation.

Both clubs' chairmen, Tony Fernandes and Randy Lerner, have made mistakes in their respective tenures – primarily in the appointment of managers and squad building strategy. Neither set of supporters has ever been shy of turning against a manager or chairman in the past but for now both seem content to direct the blame onto the underlings. QPR's CEO Philip Beard is starting to cop some flak from the hooped masses while his opposite number at Villa Park , Paul Faulkner, is experiencing the same thing. The working theory on both counts seems to be that rich men who knew little about the inner workings of the sport naively placed their faith in others to run their clubs day to day and are now paying the price.

Both Lerner and Fernandes have, at one time or another, been held up as examples of the ideal football club owner but those halos have slipped slightly as a season of struggle has ensued. Nevertheless an article on this site prior to the first meeting of these teams this season criticising Lerner provoked an angry reaction on Twitter from the Villa faithful.

When Lerner first bought the club, succeeding long serving chairman Doug Ellis, money was – relatively speaking – not a problem. We're not talking a Chelsea or Manchester City level of wallet waving but manager Martin O'Neill certainly didn't want for players and with that cash he built a team with a physical defence, a pacey threat in wide areas, and a big man little man strike combination – exactly as you would expect him to do given his previous form at Leicester and Celtic. That team finished sixth in three consecutive seasons, each time threatening Champions League qualification before falling away to the booby prize of the UEFA Cup which they would then deliberately crash out of nice and early in order to aid their bid to qualify for the following season's UEFA Cup.

Having missed the Champions League gravy train for three years in a row it seemed that Lerner tired of bankrolling an impossible dream. A change of tack whereby the club would be much more reliant on its impressive academy system to provide first team players, much less keen to make big splashes in the transfer market, and much more careful with its wage bill was adopted. Hard to blame them for that - the accounts to May 2011 showed a colossal £53m loss which had been reduced to £17.7m a year later only by the sale of the likes of Gareth Barry, James Milner, Ashley Young and Stewart Downing and a dramatic cut in the wage bill as well as Lerner waving £20m in interest payments he was owed on loans into the club.

Despite the apparent necessity to change the way the club was being run, O'Neill resigned on the eve of the 2010/11 season. That left Villa to start the campaign with Kevin MacDonald in caretaker charge before appointing the walking heart attack that is Gerard Houllier.

On the face of it, the idea that a club should rely on its home grown talent and well scouted lower league players with the occasional big money purchase like Darren Bent or, more recently, Christian Benteke is a worthy one – one many of us would like to see QPR adopting. But the transition from big spenders to thrifty operators is not one that can be made quickly in football – players take time to move on, egos can be damaged, arguments can occur – and it looks from the outside like Villa have tried to do too much too soon. A difficult situation was made worse by the daft decision to turn to Houllier first of all, and then the laughably dreadful move to replace him with Alex McLeish. To Lerner's credit, he'd correctly pinpointed Roberto Martinez as the ideal man to lead the brave new dawn but couldn't persuade the Spaniard to move from Wigan, but chairmen have been hounded out of office for less serious offences than appointing managers as poor as Houllier and McLeish

Paul Lambert looked like a rare reasonable idea when he was poached from Norwich during the summer but after two years of mismanagement the first team at Villa Park was in something of a state. His ostracising of Darren Bent while a team of youngsters and lower league picks struggled smacked rather of the baby going out with the bath water – although injuries to the senior players he did want to pick like Ron Vlaar have made his methods look more extreme than perhaps he intended.

They rather look like a club approaching the end of a bungee jump, just hoping the guy at the top measured the length of the chord correctly. Survive this season and they have a group of young players richer for the Premier League experience ready for one or two additions from the summer transfer market, which Lambert has proven adept at working before, ahead of the next campaign. Drop down a division and it's going to be a bloody mess.

At the moment, which it's to be really does hang in the balance.

Interview

Two Villa fans for you this week – welcome Steve from the My Old Man Said… Villa blog, and Nelson Rahi who gave us some stick on Twitter last time so we marked his card and invited him to have his say this time around.

What has this season gone so badly for Aston Villa?

Nelsen: Self sufficiency is apparently everything at Villa, we've done nothing for three seasons except cut the wage bill. We seem to have replaced what experience we had with youth and perhaps hunger. Quite a gamble. Our season was bobbing along until Chelsea decided to annihilate us and our collective confidence has been shot ever since. There have been positive points however; we've started attempting to play football - the second goal against Reading being a good example; Benteke being his beastly self and the emergence of Andi Weimann.

Steve: In a word - stability, or its lack thereof. Lambert's appointment was the third in three years and a club just can't operate like that and progress. The trimming of the wage bill has hit us hard too, as it's limited us in terms of who we've been able to bring in. Most of the new players have been good, but it's their first season at this level and it's been one hell of a learning curve.

Do you still think you'll survive? Are the majority of Villa fans confident or not?

Steve: I don't think you'd find any Villa fans that are truly confident of survival, but I think we can stay up. We've been playing much better since January and it feels like they're on the brink of turning it around, but anything can happen this season and there are ten teams who aren't safe yet.

Nelsen: Personally, I think we will manage to scrape enough points together from the remaining games to stay up. We seem to have improved recently with good football played against Man City and Arsenal and in spells prior to that too. As for the majority of fans, well, I'd say that more probably feel we will stay up now. There are plenty who feel we are pretty much down already though.

How do the Villa supporters feel about Paul Lambert and the job he's doing?

Nelson: Generally I think people respect what he's trying to do and its probably fair to say that most fans would love his style to be successful. There are always a few absolute nutballs who wanted him out after he sneezed the wrong way or something. To be fair though, we have had some dire results and moments this season, moments that may have been the curtain call for managers under the previous regime. I'm my opinion, Villa need stability. Lambert has shown an awareness of tactics, a desire to play football (at the risk of sounding snobby) properly and also decent transfer window activity. We've been absolute toilet for a few seasons, so I am happy for him to carry on and hopefully be successful in his philosophy.

Steve: I think most are behind him, although there is a section that want him out already. He's had his moments of genius, but also his moments of madness, and sometimes he doesn't help himself with substitutions. You could also argue that the team's inability to stay focused at the end of a game is down to him, but by and large I think he's the right man for the job.

Has there been any dissent towards Randy Lerner? Can he be blamed for this season? Does he retain support?

Steve: Blimey, that's a loaded question; how long have you got? A lot of the mess we're in can be put on him. He let O’Neill run wild with his chequebook, and left Paul Faulkner with his proxy, which has done more harm than good. Don't get me wrong, he hasn't been all bad, but if news broke that he'd put the club up for sale you'd be hard pressed to find anyone with a broken heart.

Nelson: My thoughts are that Lerner can only really be blamed for naively trusting those he has employed to do the job. He's very hands-off although I still believe he loves the club. His refusal to do any kind of interview is now a negative thing in the eyes of some, despite his same silence when we were doing well being heralded as one of the hallmarks of a perfect club owner. We seem to lack anyone with knowledge of professional football on our board. It's the board who run the club day to day and for me they should shoulder the blame for the direction Villa have gone in. It is natural to blame the guy at the top, so perhaps blame is warranted but whoever decided to close up spending and aim to become the Ajax of the Midlands overnight needs an uppercut.

Who have been the stand out performers and the weak links? Where does the team need strengthening?

Nelson: Benteke is probably the main one, despite me struggling to warm to him as it just seems like he'll be off sharpish. As mentioned, Andi Weimann has had a good season and scored some important goals. Brad Guzan has been excellent, I'm so happy he is our goalkeeper. Really top guy. We've lacked a dominant midfielder for me. Someone to grab the game and influence things. Westwood has done this sometimes but he needs complimentary players around him. Oh and we need a defence and defensive coach. Going forwards we are generally quite exciting but we are so frail at the back.

Steve: Three players have really stood out this season - Benteke, Guzan, and Weimann. They've been immense and if we stay up it'll be because of them. The weak link is obviously the defence and though the midfield have started to get their act together recently we could do with strengthening the centre. We've missed Petrov badly and need someone in there who can calm things down when backs are against the wall.

Scout Report

Christopher Samba your time is now. The giant Congo international arrived in January from Russia after several months of off season – Harry Redknapp estimated he was only 60% fit when he arrived and that looked generous when he turned in a shambolic performance in the 4-1 defeat at Swansea. His form against Sunderland and Southampton suggests he’s getting back to something close to his best and Rangers will need him on top form at both ends of the pitch on Saturday.

In defence he needs to dominate Christian Benteke. The giant Belgian was aptly described recently as a “great crap player” and I couldn’t have put it better myself: he’s cumbersome, awkward, physical and, every now and again, prone to moments of genius. He has a very decent goals per game record – 16 in 29 starts in a struggling team this season. When I saw Villa recently against Man City they were unashamedly direct towards Benteke, and almost all of their attacking intent came through him. He played as a lone striker with Agbonlahor, N’Zogbia and Weimann as the three man combination behind him but they were totally single minded in their early, direct targeting of the Belgian.

On the night he was regularly frustrated by referee Mike Dean penalising him for fouls but Rangers would be foolish to rely on similar favours from our official this weekend Kevin Friend who has always been a bit of homer throughout his career. As we see with Grant Holt, who can win a dozen free kicks in a match one week and then none the next, referees can go either way with a target men. Sometimes they believe it’s the defender crawling over the striker, at others they see a striker backing in.

Against Bradford in the second leg of the League Cup semi final Villa had a great first half and looked like they may claw back a 3-1 first leg deficit by getting the ball into wide areas and delivering good crosses for Benteke to attack. In the second half, for reasons best known to themselves, they went much more direct, much earlier and ended up knocking long balls down the centre of the field hoping to feed off Benteke’s knock downs – which was meat and drink to a physical League Two defence like Bradford’s. QPR must close down spaces in wide areas so that the likes of N’Zogbia Agbonlahor and Weimann don’t have space to operate, then force Villa to go long and direct down the middle and hope Samba can win the battle with Benteke.

But Samba may also be key at the attacking end of the field as well. Bradford scored two of the four goals they managed across that two legged tie from corners and Villa have struggled badly from set pieces all season. In the first leg against the League Two side Benteke was detailed to mark a specific man and did a poor job, so in the return leg they left him as a free man to win headers as and when – and it made no difference whatsoever. Villa are prone to getting sucked into their own six yard box, leaving a big space around the penalty spot for a late runner to exploit. Again, it rather smacks of an ideal opportunity for Samba.

Villa have conceded some dreadful goals recently – Ciaran Clark fell over his own feet and cost them against Man City, Nathan Baker skewed horribly into his own goal at Reading. It’s a young and inexperienced back four lacking confidence, and they’ve looked most vulnerable when teams have pressed them high up the field and forced them to make quick decisions. West Ham didn’t do that, and stuck to knocking long balls up to Andy Carroll which Villa were able to deal with in a tight, narrow formation – beware relying on Zamora too much this weekend. Man City found it very easy to outnumber them in the full back areas as well, regularly working two on one opportunities in that area of the field.

In general, a recurring theme I’ve noticed in the Villa games I’ve seen is a fast start giving way after the 30 minute mark to a lack of ideas and then, if a goal hasn’t been scored, a very tired last third of the game where they can be picked off.

Don’t concede early, hope Samba dominates Benteke – fill your boots.

Links >>> Official Website >>> My Old Man Said… >>> Travel Guide >>> The Villa Blog >>> 7500 to Holte Blog >>> Villa Talk Message Board >>> Villa Forums >>> Heroes and Villains forum and fanzine

Tweet @loftforwords, @oldmansaid, @nelsonrahi

Pictures – Action Images

Photo: Action Images

Kaos_Agent added 02:52 - Mar 15 "They rather look like a club approaching the end of a bungee jump, just hoping the guy at the top measured the length of the chord correctly." LOL - we're in the same boat as them, and have to hope that we bottomed out before the Saints match! A good read, Clive. If we play like last week, we will worry their back line.
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GloryHunter added 09:14 - Mar 15 Change of tack.
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ggildas added 10:46 - Mar 15 Nicely written Mr Clive Whittingham. Balanced commentary. At last an article that is not full of hyperbola.
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TacticalR added 11:01 - Mar 15 It would be interesting to know what happened with Martin O'Neill's departure. The fact that O'Neill went just before the beginning of the season does imply that Lerner had made a fairly sudden decision about reducing expenditure. Villa is one of a number of clubs outside of the top four who seem to have decided to 'do a Newcastle' and downsize. Perhaps that's more of a high risk strategy than it looked at first, even for the larger clubs. Or perhaps Lerner is determined that expenditure must be reduced, whatever the cost in terms of league position. I also wonder if there is an 'anti-big names' policy which could be as dangerous as a 'big names' policy if applied too mechanically. On Samba...he seems to be getting better every game, especially in the air. High balls are meat and drink to him. It took him a while to get into the Southampton game, but after that Ricky Lambert disappeared into his pocket. However, Benteke really gets around the pitch so will be harder to keep track of. It would be great if Samba could get on the end of some corners, but that's one area where he's looked ineffective so far (although him just being in the opposition box is probably creating opportunities for other players).

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JohnMacQPR added 20:00 - Mar 15 "hyperbola". Isn't that some kind of nasty virus? Attacking is in the Rangers DNA, so lets hope tomorrow will see us replicating the last two weeks' attacking football throughout the Villa half, with the ball erupting into their net with great regularity.
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