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Firstly congratulations to Steve Cooper, the players and everyone at the club for not only reaching the playoffs for the second consecutive year, but amassing a points tally equal to our record best in this division, held previously by our incredible Brendan Rodgers side the year we went up.
We do have a chance to topple that record with any kind of positive result against Watford next week.
2011
2021
Not only is the points tally being exactly the same pretty remarkable, but also the fact we were going in with the best defensive record and yet the worst (joint) scoring record. Whether or not you like the style, like the manager - the blueprint has been very similar with regards to that.
But now the playoffs have been decided and we can look ahead...
The worst possible result for us sadly. They are one of those teams we don’t seem to do well against and think it’s fair to say that on paper have the strongest squad in the playoffs. Our last 6 meetings:-
Bournemouth 3-0 Swansea Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 1-0 Swansea Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea Swansea 0-3 Bournemouth
0 goals scored. 9 goals conceded.
As many may have gathered by now I approach football the same way as I do with most aspects of life, methodical with a focus on statistics, trends and probabilities.
That premise suggests that you want to avoid the best team over the longest period of time. If you must meet that team then you have a greater chance to beat that team over a shorter period of time.
For example if Man City played Sheff United over a 90 minute match, they would probably be in the region of 1/10 to win, if the rules of the game made that a 180 minute match the odds would probably be 1/20, because the longer the time you have the more chance that the class difference will tell.
So ideally we would have wanted them in the final where aspects such as luck can play a part and not have chance to even itself out over the longer course of 2 legs.
So it’s going to be tough. But not impossible. We had a similar route in the Carling Cup where we were faced with playing Chelsea over 2 legs which set up an easier final. So it’s not out of the question.
Bournemouth rested a host of players against Wycombe yesterday and will probably do so again next week. We didn’t rest as many as I thought we would so would like to see that happen next week, which really is a dead rubber. It would be pretty galling to pick up an injury or red card.
All that is left to play for is home advantage in the second leg.
What will be will be. But whatever happens from here on in, this has been yet another successful season.
[Post edited 2 May 2021 3:06]
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Good analysis Doc & whilst it could still change but unlikely so if it is Bournemouth we have a tough challenge over two legs as you point out very effectively - don’t think it’s quite the Man City - Sheffield Utd level but probably more like, on this seasons form, Chelsea - West Ham.
Our only positives are decent defensive standards & strong resilience in games even when playing poorly - probably through lots of practice! Bournemouth can be frustrated, particularly if the opposition go ahead & are strong defensively but I suspect only Norwich could out football them.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 08:24 - May 2 with 6152 views
Every single player has to perform. If they do, we have a good chance. If they go back to being half hearted, as they have in many games, we will get stuffed.
Swansea Indepenent Poster Of The Year 2021. Dr P / Mart66 / Roathie / Parlay / E20/ Duffle was 2nd, but he is deluded and thinks in his little twisted brain that he won. Poor sod. We let him win this year, as he has cried for a whole year. His 14 usernames, bless his cotton socks.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 08:32 - May 2 with 6150 views
So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 08:24 - May 2 by builthjack
Treat each game as a cup final. Never say never..
Every single player has to perform. If they do, we have a good chance. If they go back to being half hearted, as they have in many games, we will get stuffed.
So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 10:16 - May 2 by KeithHaynes
I fancy us against Bradford tbh.
We put 5 on them last time so looking good
Swansea Indepenent Poster Of The Year 2021. Dr P / Mart66 / Roathie / Parlay / E20/ Duffle was 2nd, but he is deluded and thinks in his little twisted brain that he won. Poor sod. We let him win this year, as he has cried for a whole year. His 14 usernames, bless his cotton socks.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 10:19 - May 2 with 6027 views
If it is Bournemouth, which looks almost certain, they are going to create chances against us.
If Cooper goes into his shell and tries to eek out two drabfests, the pressure will build and build and they’ll eventually score.
We should be playing our best front 3 and trying to keep the ball in their final third for periods. I know loads will disagree, but for me Ayew, Routledge and Lowe give us the best synergy in attack. Cullen on for Routledge when he tires.
If we do happen to be ahead at that point, then Roberts/Naughton on for Routledge, change formation and go more defensive for the last 20 minutes or so is an option.
Just accept they will get chances and focus on giving them problems as well as defensive shape, rather than just parking the bus and hoping for a bit of magic from Ayew.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 10:30 - May 2 with 6009 views
It is very interesting looking at the 2011 table. Of all those top 12 clubs the only ones that eventually made it in to the prem that are still there are Leicester, Leeds and Burnley . It goes to show just how difficult it is for the any club but especially smaller clubs to get up there and stay there.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:28 - May 2 with 5892 views
So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:03 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad
It is very interesting looking at the 2011 table. Of all those top 12 clubs the only ones that eventually made it in to the prem that are still there are Leicester, Leeds and Burnley . It goes to show just how difficult it is for the any club but especially smaller clubs to get up there and stay there.
It also demonstrates the chances of Swansea returning within the next 10 years is pretty good. Swansea has managed the parachute in a textbook fashion and have small debt and promising young players.
Wise sage since Toshack era
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 16:39 - May 2 with 5808 views
So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 10:27 - May 2 by jack247
If it is Bournemouth, which looks almost certain, they are going to create chances against us.
If Cooper goes into his shell and tries to eek out two drabfests, the pressure will build and build and they’ll eventually score.
We should be playing our best front 3 and trying to keep the ball in their final third for periods. I know loads will disagree, but for me Ayew, Routledge and Lowe give us the best synergy in attack. Cullen on for Routledge when he tires.
If we do happen to be ahead at that point, then Roberts/Naughton on for Routledge, change formation and go more defensive for the last 20 minutes or so is an option.
Just accept they will get chances and focus on giving them problems as well as defensive shape, rather than just parking the bus and hoping for a bit of magic from Ayew.
We have to play the team that started against Millwall and Wednesday don't we? With Cabango for Bennett maybe, for set pieces at both ends.
So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 08:41 - May 2 by felixstowe_jack
A good season with 10 points more than last season and 15 points more than under Potter yet some supporters think we are going backwards.
We have gone backwards in the entertainment aspect, obviously the results and points total cannot be denied. However anyone who says they've enjoyed the football this season has my total admiration. Football is a business buts its also an entertainment business. I am actually very optimistic about the future.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 17:45 - May 2 with 5755 views
So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 18:35 - May 2 by 34dfgdf54
Cabango and Guehi for me against a very mobile attack.
horses for courses. I can see the benefit of experience being invaluable from Bennett in these games but the mobility of our defence is so important. Whatever we do I think we have to move the ball quickly and keep the opposition away from their own game.
We know what they do well so those spaces have to be covered quickly if we lose possession.
Lord_Jack increasingly detached from the riches of kicking a ball
Cooper will most likely go with Naughton instead of Cabango, but I think those three at the back are solid. I can see Cullen and Whittaker on the bench or maybe with such a strong defence Lowe on the left and Cullen with Ayew. Maybe too attacking for him, plus I think Hourihane will be included. Which worries me.
A great believer in taking anything you like to wherever you want to.
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