 | Forum
Thread | Cov-19 predictions
at 19:45 1 Apr 2020
Hi Folks.
Most of my career was analyzing data and spotting trends, mostly the effects over many years, sometimes at micro level.
So, because its in my blood, I decided to analyze the data from Worldometers on the coronavirus.
I believe that isolation is particularly tough on people, exacerbated by open ended possibility of not knowing how long this will go on for.
So I put some thought to this, given my training, and hoping that this will be helpful to everyone, to have some sense of 'how long’ and to be able to plan their lives.
Here is what I think is going to happen in terms of timelines.
Carole
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
My predictions for the coronavirus - Date 1st April 2020
Assuming their trends and reporting are accurate, this is based on China outcomes.
Assuming global protocols for distancing are in place and normal levels of hospital achievements and no severe shortages of equipment.
Assuming death rates are the same or similar across countries - averaging out at 2-4%, although this may be affected by variability in protocols
It is notable that population density in any country is majorly affecting infection rates, so infection rates by country will differ dramatically.
The first death in any country probably occurs within 2 weeks of the infection of any person. This is demonstrated in the graphs between peak infection rate date and the peak death rate.
Because there is so many assumptions, margins of error may be larger, this is reflected by my estimates
Assuming all of this and that trends hold fast, we can estimate timescales for individual countries.
(Source used: Worldometers info website, comparing against rates across many countries.)
Typically the duration of the of a crisis in any country is 7 weeks, at 9 weeks cases are still being reported, but occurring at much lower and nominal levels.
Typically it takes about 3.5 weeks after the first recorded death of this infection to reach the peak of death rates in any country.
The down side of the daily death rate slope of the graphs (after the peak) it will take another 3 weeks to get close to/achieve nominal levels, this would be confirmed more likely at 5 weeks. Bringing the total duration of crisis for any country to about 8-9 weeks. Protocols of distancing should extended further at least 2 weeks to prevent a second wave.
Taking all this into account
Italy has another 4 weeks before it should achieve low/nominal levels of death rates, they are about a week away from their peak death rate. Their infection rates have started to decline a week ago (25th March).
The UK had their first recorded death on March 14th. The UK has another 10 days before it gets to the peak of death rates, about 10th April, Then another 3 weeks to get close to low/nominal death rates. An additional 2 weeks will confirm the decline of the virus. The 13th-15th May seems a prudent time to lift restrictions on people that are healthy, in the UK. There will still be infection rates, but they will be minimal.
Canada is about 3 days behind the UK in the pandemic timeline.
Germany has a secret, which they are not sharing, they appear to have significantly lower death rates per infection rate of any country in the world, so far.
Keep safe everyone. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 21:08]
|
| | hytheboy
|
Site Scores| Forum Votes: | 4 | | Comment Votes: | 0 | | Prediction League: | 0 | | TOTAL: | 4 |
|
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.