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Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 23:09 - May 28 by downunder
Totally agree with you Frenzied. Closing borders has proven to be critical in fighting Covid. Taiwan learned from the SARS outbreak, they closed the border to China in December, and they had also stockpiled and re-vamped their healthcare system from that event. Here, once we closed the border under 100% quarantine rules, we had control over the virus (although we did not know that at the time). Lockdown kept people in their homes, it soon became apparent that "clusters" were seen, and full attention given to people with links to those clusters. The UK government is now gambling with lives, slowly opening up "for the sake of the economy". A flawed policy IMHO, with new virus cases every day, that economy will stutter on for months. Meanwhile, Taiwan and here, we are opening our domestic economy as from now, without fear. There is a worry for me...talk of extending our bubble to Australia. Not a case our traditional rivalry, the concern is that Australia states they have low cases, but they have hardly done any testing either. I thank the NZ government for being decisive, and taking advantage of being an "Island". Boris and his team fought to be an economic Island with Brexit, but failed to do the same with the virus.
looking at the latest australian figures there are 2 people currently on ventilators (the goverment stockpiled 10,000!). There have been 101 deaths as of a few days ago.
Queensland, with the same population as NZ but has land borders has had far fewer deaths, 7.
The answer was closing borders and quarantining arrivals (not self isolating....thats what scummings does)
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Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 09:02 - May 29 with 1582 views
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 07:30 - May 29 by isitme
Thanks for that graph. Something similar to that is what I was looking for but you get that many graphs from so many different sources, on a daily basis. The NHS website also releases data and the deaths per day is expecially useful, as is the data on age distribution and the present of underlying conditions. Unfortunately it is only data for deaths in hospitals but it can give patterns to provide perspective such as 91% of deaths in hospitals are by those 60+ and nearly 55% are by those 80+ and that only 1% of deaths have been by people under 60 without underlying health conditions. If the data from care homes was presented in such a way and aggregated then the figures would be even more skewed towards the older end of the scale.
A headline on The Times today says that 7 in 10 who test positive for the virus show no symptoms. I suspect many more people than the recorded figures have been infected.
As you rightly say with graphs it is all about scale. I saw a graph on excess deaths earlier in the week that was weekly on the x axis and the y axix started in the thousands, therefore incrementing at a lower rate between hashes. Maybe my optimistic nature became seduced by it. Although that is not to take away from the fact that there have been a significant amount of excess deaths. It was interesting that yesterday for the first time the top end of the R scale was moved from 1 to 0.9. Another sign of improvement, but there is still a long way to go.
What I do not understand is why there has not been a second wave in any of the countries who have exited lockdown before us. As expected there have been some brief local spikes, but not the predicted significant increases.
[Post edited 29 May 2020 7:42]
I must say, there is so much data around and much of it is incomplete by its nature, as it's trying to track an invisible assassin, often when the evidence has gone! It was revealed last night (CW) that you can test true negative in the first three days of having the virus before you present with symptoms, then test true positive and be at your most infectious, but still be potentially infectious when testing negative.
For me, the salient points - there are about 8k new infections/day, an R close to 1 and that means that we are treading water (although there appears to be regionality and care homes to take into account with R). Interestingly, the Beeb on the same news bulletin (at ~18 mins in - worth a catch up on I-player if you missed it) also put a chart up on excess deaths/million of population and we were second worst worldwide, just behind Spain, and lockdown being brought in early was thought to be the key to keeping this number to a minimum (Germany and S. Korea) as many of us suspected. The excess death rate put up by the beeb was 65% for the UK in 2020 so far. On the positive side, treatment is improving for the worst affected to help to keep the death rate lower, even in a status quo of infection rates. Two points which at least I haven't really seen discussed too much yet are what prognosis recovering ICU patients have (is the damage permanent or will they make a complete recovery?) and what toll is this taking on NHS staff and how long can they keep going mentally and physically working like this.
As you say, there doesn't appear to have been too much in the way of "second waves" yet - I wonder if this is due to a lag effect, or the world (where it's already been present) is just getting better at not catching it with improved hygiene/masks, social distancing and lockdowns being imposed, but S. America seems to be being hit hard now. The global response seems to be belying the old adage "it's a small world" as too many countries seem to be being taken by surprise (I include the UK in this)
We are faced with an immensely difficult balancing act. The young need educating, society and industry needs to resume but the a/m silent assassin spreads like hot margarine attacking the most vulnerable who need protecting. Get it wrong and too many more will die; err on the side of caution and too many other problems start racking up and the money tree can't be shaken forever to maintain this status quo. I am on record as saying I neither like nor trust most politicians but the task they have ahead to find the best way through this minefield is truly monumental. Roll on the vaccine.
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 09:02 - May 29 by DaleiLama
I must say, there is so much data around and much of it is incomplete by its nature, as it's trying to track an invisible assassin, often when the evidence has gone! It was revealed last night (CW) that you can test true negative in the first three days of having the virus before you present with symptoms, then test true positive and be at your most infectious, but still be potentially infectious when testing negative.
For me, the salient points - there are about 8k new infections/day, an R close to 1 and that means that we are treading water (although there appears to be regionality and care homes to take into account with R). Interestingly, the Beeb on the same news bulletin (at ~18 mins in - worth a catch up on I-player if you missed it) also put a chart up on excess deaths/million of population and we were second worst worldwide, just behind Spain, and lockdown being brought in early was thought to be the key to keeping this number to a minimum (Germany and S. Korea) as many of us suspected. The excess death rate put up by the beeb was 65% for the UK in 2020 so far. On the positive side, treatment is improving for the worst affected to help to keep the death rate lower, even in a status quo of infection rates. Two points which at least I haven't really seen discussed too much yet are what prognosis recovering ICU patients have (is the damage permanent or will they make a complete recovery?) and what toll is this taking on NHS staff and how long can they keep going mentally and physically working like this.
As you say, there doesn't appear to have been too much in the way of "second waves" yet - I wonder if this is due to a lag effect, or the world (where it's already been present) is just getting better at not catching it with improved hygiene/masks, social distancing and lockdowns being imposed, but S. America seems to be being hit hard now. The global response seems to be belying the old adage "it's a small world" as too many countries seem to be being taken by surprise (I include the UK in this)
We are faced with an immensely difficult balancing act. The young need educating, society and industry needs to resume but the a/m silent assassin spreads like hot margarine attacking the most vulnerable who need protecting. Get it wrong and too many more will die; err on the side of caution and too many other problems start racking up and the money tree can't be shaken forever to maintain this status quo. I am on record as saying I neither like nor trust most politicians but the task they have ahead to find the best way through this minefield is truly monumental. Roll on the vaccine.
The last 14 Pandemics of a similar nature, going back 4 or 5 centuries have all had a second waves so it would be good if this one bucks the trend. One of the key questions I find interesting is the move from 2m to 1 m social distancing which has huge implications. As mentioned before, my daughter is at school in Norway, and social distancing has been 1m for some time including the classroom. Last night on the update, it was confirmed the UK is going to remain at 2m for the time being. When you realise that this distance is 360degrees around everyone, 1 person needing 1m of social distancing takes up 3.1square metres but 2 m requires closer to 13 square metres. Huge implications for Restaurants, bars or indeed any indoor business ( travel agents, hairdressers etc).
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Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 13:40 - May 29 with 1464 views
It does disconcert me that S Korea who are held up as an exemplar for the way they have responded to Covid are beginning to see clusters of cases now they have begun to open things up. I am sure they are well placed to deal with any spikes. I am not convinced that many other countries are, including the four home nations. We would want to be a strategist in such difficult times, clearly Cummings still fancies the job. He did a far better job on Brexit than with this outbreak, but he is in Boris’s view the master of all trades.
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Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 13:55 - May 29 with 1439 views
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 13:01 - May 29 by Nigeriamark
The last 14 Pandemics of a similar nature, going back 4 or 5 centuries have all had a second waves so it would be good if this one bucks the trend. One of the key questions I find interesting is the move from 2m to 1 m social distancing which has huge implications. As mentioned before, my daughter is at school in Norway, and social distancing has been 1m for some time including the classroom. Last night on the update, it was confirmed the UK is going to remain at 2m for the time being. When you realise that this distance is 360degrees around everyone, 1 person needing 1m of social distancing takes up 3.1square metres but 2 m requires closer to 13 square metres. Huge implications for Restaurants, bars or indeed any indoor business ( travel agents, hairdressers etc).
If by a second wave you mean a second peak, i think the difference now is the far greater understanding of epidemiology than during the pandemics of previous centuries. Even as recently as the Spanish Flu pandemic c.1918-20, the difference in the knowledge base (even where the precise nature of the pathogen is far from understood) is like the difference between travelling in a WW1 bi-plane and a craft ferrying astronauts to the ISS
Rather than a second peak, there will undoubtedly be second (third, fourth) outbreaks as we're already seeing, but providing the strategy is in place they should be manageable rather than devastating. That, of course, is the big issue here in the UK
The science of epidemiology has even evolved to include certainties expressed on a football messageboard!! There's progress for you...
Government was unable to reduce Coronavirus threat level below 4. Boris Johnson signalled on Wednesday it was likely to be reduced to 3, but the Joint Biosecurity Unit did not agree to this yesterday.
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 14:04 - May 29 by 442Dale
Downing Street Daily Briefing
Government was unable to reduce Coronavirus threat level below 4. Boris Johnson signalled on Wednesday it was likely to be reduced to 3, but the Joint Biosecurity Unit did not agree to this yesterday.
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 13:55 - May 29 by D_Alien
If by a second wave you mean a second peak, i think the difference now is the far greater understanding of epidemiology than during the pandemics of previous centuries. Even as recently as the Spanish Flu pandemic c.1918-20, the difference in the knowledge base (even where the precise nature of the pathogen is far from understood) is like the difference between travelling in a WW1 bi-plane and a craft ferrying astronauts to the ISS
Rather than a second peak, there will undoubtedly be second (third, fourth) outbreaks as we're already seeing, but providing the strategy is in place they should be manageable rather than devastating. That, of course, is the big issue here in the UK
The science of epidemiology has even evolved to include certainties expressed on a football messageboard!! There's progress for you...
[Post edited 29 May 2020 13:59]
For a govt following the science, it seems strange to go against scientific advice re lockdown relaxation, I firmly believe that this is to distract us from Cummings. The R rate is close to 1, it might be low in London , but I don’t live there. I think this will be a disaster , but if only northerners die, does it matter?
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 18:32 - May 29 by rochdaleriddler
For a govt following the science, it seems strange to go against scientific advice re lockdown relaxation, I firmly believe that this is to distract us from Cummings. The R rate is close to 1, it might be low in London , but I don’t live there. I think this will be a disaster , but if only northerners die, does it matter?
Dunno riddler, but in your opinion is Durham "Northern"?
Wasn't the motive for the lockdown basically, the NHS didn't have the capacity to cope with a mass influx of additional patients from C-19. To flatten the curve below the line that said NHS capacity on the graph. Wouldn't be surprised if that line has moved up so although people will contract coronavirus and some will die (sadly of course) The health service should be able to cope. People of course need to play ball. Continuing the hand washing 20 seconds according to the NHS 40 according to WHO. The 2 metre distancing and self isolating if one has symptoms.
'Only happy when you've got it often makes you miss the journey'
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 14:04 - May 29 by 442Dale
Downing Street Daily Briefing
Government was unable to reduce Coronavirus threat level below 4. Boris Johnson signalled on Wednesday it was likely to be reduced to 3, but the Joint Biosecurity Unit did not agree to this yesterday.
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 19:25 - May 29 by James1980
Wasn't the motive for the lockdown basically, the NHS didn't have the capacity to cope with a mass influx of additional patients from C-19. To flatten the curve below the line that said NHS capacity on the graph. Wouldn't be surprised if that line has moved up so although people will contract coronavirus and some will die (sadly of course) The health service should be able to cope. People of course need to play ball. Continuing the hand washing 20 seconds according to the NHS 40 according to WHO. The 2 metre distancing and self isolating if one has symptoms.
The motive should have been least deaths and ONE of the measures would have been the capacity of the NHS but another would have been the safety of Care Homes - overwhelming Care Homes to avoid overwhelming the NHS is the inevitable consequence of being driven by targets rather than outcomes.
It seems that Hydroxychloroquine might still be a game changer if used early.
"Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been widely misrepresented in both clinical reports and public media, and outpatient trials results are not expected until September. Early outpatient illness is very different than later hospitalized florid disease and the treatments differ. Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy. Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been used as standard-of-care in more than 300,000 older adults with multicomorbidities, with estimated proportion diagnosed with cardiac arrhythmias attributable to the medications 47/100,000 users, of which estimated mortality is <20%, 9/100,000 users, compared to the 10,000 Americans now dying each week. These medications need to be widely available and promoted immediately for physicians to prescribe." https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa093/5847586
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Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 23:31 - May 29 with 1057 views
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 23:15 - May 29 by 49thseason
It seems that Hydroxychloroquine might still be a game changer if used early.
"Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been widely misrepresented in both clinical reports and public media, and outpatient trials results are not expected until September. Early outpatient illness is very different than later hospitalized florid disease and the treatments differ. Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy. Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been used as standard-of-care in more than 300,000 older adults with multicomorbidities, with estimated proportion diagnosed with cardiac arrhythmias attributable to the medications 47/100,000 users, of which estimated mortality is <20%, 9/100,000 users, compared to the 10,000 Americans now dying each week. These medications need to be widely available and promoted immediately for physicians to prescribe." https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa093/5847586
Why don’t you say that this person writes this in respect of hydroxycholoroquine. This is just one paper in a Journal. It’s not a ‘game-changer’ I thought it was going to be bleach or shoving a high-powered torch down your throat that was going to cure Covid? That was the last Trump inspired nonsense you tried to back-up with your ‘research’.
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 08:04 - May 29 by pioneer
looking at the latest australian figures there are 2 people currently on ventilators (the goverment stockpiled 10,000!). There have been 101 deaths as of a few days ago.
Queensland, with the same population as NZ but has land borders has had far fewer deaths, 7.
The answer was closing borders and quarantining arrivals (not self isolating....thats what scummings does)
Cannot agree with that last line. We did have cases in the country, and isolating made sure the spread was contained. One person at a wedding in Invercargill infected around 60 people. Lockdown followed soon after, and the area (3 x area of Yorkshire) was limited to 216 cases. NZ now 7 days without a new case, only one person with the virus in isolation, none in hospital. Another test this weekend, a long weekend (Queens birthday), and tourist industry getting a needed boost as Kiwis take holidays in NZ. We will know for sure if the virus has gone as next week progresses. Boris would be far better off following the example of Ardern, than Trump.IMHO
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Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 05:49 - May 30 with 983 views
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 23:58 - May 29 by downunder
Cannot agree with that last line. We did have cases in the country, and isolating made sure the spread was contained. One person at a wedding in Invercargill infected around 60 people. Lockdown followed soon after, and the area (3 x area of Yorkshire) was limited to 216 cases. NZ now 7 days without a new case, only one person with the virus in isolation, none in hospital. Another test this weekend, a long weekend (Queens birthday), and tourist industry getting a needed boost as Kiwis take holidays in NZ. We will know for sure if the virus has gone as next week progresses. Boris would be far better off following the example of Ardern, than Trump.IMHO
How dare you! Don't you know you're challenging epidemiological certainties?!
Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 23:15 - May 29 by 49thseason
It seems that Hydroxychloroquine might still be a game changer if used early.
"Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been widely misrepresented in both clinical reports and public media, and outpatient trials results are not expected until September. Early outpatient illness is very different than later hospitalized florid disease and the treatments differ. Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy. Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been used as standard-of-care in more than 300,000 older adults with multicomorbidities, with estimated proportion diagnosed with cardiac arrhythmias attributable to the medications 47/100,000 users, of which estimated mortality is <20%, 9/100,000 users, compared to the 10,000 Americans now dying each week. These medications need to be widely available and promoted immediately for physicians to prescribe." https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa093/5847586
If nothing else, that's a cracking Scrabble word.
When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf?
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Should Dominic Cummins resign? on 13:11 - May 30 with 871 views
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