A first win in six at Birmingham on Saturday, sealed by two goals from Ravel Morrison, sets QPR up nicely for a Tuesday night jaunt to Brighton.

Brighton and Hove Albion (8th) v Queens Park Rangers (4th)

Old First Division, Old Old Second Division >>> Tuesday March 11, 2014 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Falmer, East Sussex

We all like a bet once and a while, and given my grandfather’s spectacular ability to throw good money after bad in a bookmakers shop appears to have passed down through the generations of the Whittingham family it’s a really good job that it is only very seldom that I partake.

Old Tom was famed for an incident in The Goldhawk (the proper one, not the ghastly trendy shit tip it became where you’d wait 25 minutes to be served even if the place was empty, nor indeed the empty shell it now is, no doubt to be wasted into flats at the first possible opportunity) where he told everybody in the lounge bar that Hassan the Asian barber down his road had given him a sure fire tip on a greyhound for the afternoon.

Hassan was a character of questionable repute, moving from shop to shop with worrying frequency and often cancelling appointments at the last moment because somebody had thrown a brick through his window. Or a fire bomb. But his tip for the greyhound was indeed spot on, and the pacy pooch won by half the length of the track.
Unfortunately for my granddad, and indeed the three dozen Goldhawk regulars he’d persuaded to fork over a fiver each to back it, he’d become concerned that the odds hadn’t drifted out as Hassan promised they might and, in a bit of a panic, had lumped everybody’s money on a rather older, fatter, slower dog that might not actually have been a dog at all which ambled up to the first corner, laid down in the sand, and had some sort of an epileptic seizure.

I could tell you another one about his seven horse accumulator at Aintree that got progressively worse with each passing horse, but that one ends with a fine three year old having the screens brought around it and a bullet put through its skull, and it’s a bit late in the day to be getting all gruesome on you, so we’ll leave it there. The one time I do remember him winning, all £500 had gone within three hours including a £20 tip for the woman paying him out, so it’s probably for the best that he usually lost.

Had you been in the Crown and Sceptre last weekend after the Leeds snooze-a-thon you’d have seen my younger brother Paul clutching a betting slip with four draws on it, led by Bournemouth 5 Doncaster Rovers 0. His accumulators go like that as a matter of routine, to the point where he literally may as well walk outside, find the nearest sinkhole, and toss the money in there as hand it over the counter at William Hill. I’m sure Tony Fernandes’ business partners know the feeling.

But some people have to bet. Two flies going up a wall, two blokes at a urinal having a piss, two drops of rain going down the window — they’ll stick a monkey on anything. And those sorts may well find solace and entertainment at 10.00 on a Friday morning by playing along at home with Harry Redknapp’s weekly pre-match “presser”. Well, it’s got to be better than playing the dodgy roulette machine in the Kilburn High Road branch of Paddy Power hasn’t it? Or betting on those imaginary cartoon horse races they cram onto the Ladbrokes screens in the seven agonising minutes it takes for another actual horse or dog race to start somewhere in the world?

Earlier in the season your money would have been pretty safe on “Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday.” ‘Arry liked that one for a while, emphasising how “’ard” it was going to be for the R’s this season unless he was allowed to sign five more players because they’d be made to play every time it was either a Saturday or a Tuesday for the next nine months. In actual fact, until the start of this month, that has been the case far less than in any recent Championship season I can remember — aided by Rangers not having a game postponed, and their ongoing conscientious objections to the cup competitions of course.

So he desisted with that after a while, and tried a few different tacks to try and persuade Fernandes to allow him to take his loan signings up to a baker’s dozen. Players who played for other clubs who may or may not be unsettled depending on what a friendly agent might have muttered earlier in the week were described as “top, top players” who “anybody would want in their team.” Tapping up, hiding in plain sight, he’s been doing it for years.

These days your money is safer in Redknapp presser bingo if you lump on him finding some obscure reason why the next opponents facing his QPR side - built on the division’s biggest budget by a country mile remember - are in fact the greatest club in the world waiting to happen. Huddersfield are one of the great names of the English game because they were good back in the 1930s and Birmingham are a massive club because they popped into the Premier League for a brief time a few years back. Leeds, champions of Europe; Nottingham Forest, well it’s like Brian Clough never died isn’t it; Derby County, ditto. Even ‘Arry might struggle to find a reason why Yeovil are the Champions League winners that never happened ahead of Saturday’s meeting but then it’s Sheffield Wednesday who are no doubt also a top, top club with a magnificent stadium and a great history and an associated story from 1970-something where West Ham went there and got annihilated for some reason that’s suddenly relevant to QPR in 2014.

And now, hold onto your Ray Winstones, we not only have Brighton, who play in front of a gazillion fans every week in a giant new stadium, but it’s also on a Tuesday, after a Saturday, and before another Saturday, before another Tuesday. Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday, big club, great support, fabulous ground. It’ll be tough. Very ‘ard.

Redknapp will be hoping that, as it did on Saturday, his gamble on Ravel Morrison continues to pay off. Robbed of his better attacking players through injury, the QPR boss took a chance on an eighth loan — the league says you can pick five, I may have mentioned that a time or two already — and the quality of the poster boy for late night disputes in retail estate car parks shone through at St Andrew’s on Saturday when two fine goals saw Birmingham off with plenty to spare.

That the current Birmingham team could probably be given a reasonable game by the characters from Morph is neither here nor there for now — Rangers hadn’t won in five games and it felt good to win. When it’s Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday against these massive megatron football clubs you take a win however you can get it and exaggerate both its importance and significance — Brum manager Lee Clark dubbed Morrison the “best British talent since Paul Gascoigne” in the euphoric wake of a routine win in front of 17,000 empty seats two days ago. Steady on Lee, we’ve all had a drink.

But can Morrison do it on a cold Tuesday night in Barnsley eh? Or, more to the point, an unseasonably warm one in Brighton? Off to the south coast we go to find out.

Links >>> History >>> Referee >>> Travel Guide >>> Opposition Profile

Neither Matthew Rose, nor his team mates, can quite believe it — the former Arsenal man has just curled in a high quality injury time winner with his left foot from 20 yards out at Brighton’s old Withdean Stadium. That 3-2 success, part of a seven match winning run for Ian Holloway’s side during the 2004/05 campaign, was QPR’s last victory against Brighton.

Tuesday

Team News: Having gone five matches without a win since Charlie Austin’s shoulder fell apart in the narrow home win against Bolton in January, the last thing Rangers really needed was for his loaned replacement Kevin Doyle to pick up a knock. But that’s exactly what happened after an hour of physical treatment at the hands of Birmingham’s Paul Robinson on Saturday and if the Irishman isn’t fit to play then Harry Redknapp must decide between youngster Will Keane and Mobido Maiga to lead his attack. Be still my beating wallet, we’ve already paid for the ticket and we’re going.

Niko Kranjcar is still struggling with a hamstring injury and the loan rules mean three of Doyle, Kranjcar, Ravel Morrison, Little Tom Carroll, Maiga, Keane, Fat Brazilian and Benoit Assou Ekotto must sit out. Danny Simpson, Matt Phillips and Ale Faurlin are the long term absentees along with Austin. I know, I know, we’ll get through it together.

Brighton’s excellent defensive record — 28 goals conceded all season, and a league leading 13 on their travels — may face a stiffer test than normal on Tuesday with club captain Gordon Greer serving a one match ban. He’d struck up a fine partnership with Matthew Upson at the heart of the defence this season and will be missed. Lewis Dunk will stand in for him while Dale Stephens (foot) and Andrea Orlandi (thigh) face late checks. Andrew Crofts is a long term absentee.

Elsewhere: It’s a full round of fixtures this Tuesday and Wednesday, as opposed to one of those midweek dates where they just shovel rearranged fixtures for fear that the paying public would lose interest in Championship football altogether and start spending their money on Emmerdale Farm merchandise if the second tier football dares to stop for more than 25 minutes at a time.

Looking down the list, games of interest — as in, games you might forgo an evening of cleaning the bath to watch on the television were they televised — number zero. So let’s just run through this from the top shall we and state the significance of each as we go along.

Barnsley might be relegated this season and Leicester will probably be promoted. That should make a meeting between the two at Oakwell a foregone conclusion but a weekend victory for the Tykes against one of the other high flyers, Nottingham Trees, has taught us that nothing is ever certain in football and….. urgh, sigh, I hate the sound of my own voice sometimes you know.

Champions Elect Bolton have collapsed into a sloppy blancmange ever since LFW said they would probably win the division at a veritable canter this season while Derby County have soared so high into the sky since Steve ‘Schteve’ McClaren pitched up back in October that they can barely hear the muffled grumbles of “awww shit” from QPR back down on the ground. That should mean that Derby are a solid bet for a home win when the two teams meet on the retail park on Tuesday but Bolton’s remarkable 5-1 win at Leeds on Saturday while the Rams were being beaten by what we’re contractually obligated to refer to as Lowly Millwall has taught us that nothing is ever certain in football and…. Kill me. Kill me now.

Christ on a tiny motorbike all that waffle and we’re only two games into a list a mile long. Doncaster v Udinese.

Leeds v Reading is a meeting between Brian McDermott’s old club, and what is still just about, I think, at the time of writing, probably, perhaps his current one. Though many more 5-1 home defeats by teams as crap as Bolton and even a normal owner would be sending him back to his Heston Blumenthal lookalike business double quick.

Middlesbrough are playing Nottingham Trees, which is lovely for them, and Yeovil face Ipswich in a passionate grudge match between the division’s two quaint market towns that are fine to visit once a football season for a bit of a drink up but not to live in for any great length of time. Or, at least, that’s how Sky Sports are billing it. Blackpool, without a win in 19 matches now, face Lowly Millwall, but that one’s starting later at 20.00 because it could potentially kick off at any given moment. Ross Kemp and Kate Aidie are on standby in hair and make-up. Well, just the make up in Ross’ case actually.

All the B’s on Wednesday — Burnley’s assault on second place shows no sign of slowing down and it’s unlikely to be greatly troubled by a trip to Birmingham, while Blackburn v Bournemouth is unlikely to even draw enough people to cover the cost of printing the programmes. Charlton v Huddersfield takes place down at the sand pit while the Globetrotters face Sheffield Wednesday.

Then there’s a torturous two days where you might have to, you know, do a bit of work or talk to a loved one for a bit before we all start all over again on Saturday. Football.

Referee: Robert Madley has been on the league list for four seasons, but has already been fast tracked up to the Premier League where he made his debut last season with three red cards in a single match between Southampton and West Brom at St Mary’s. This is the first QPR appointment of his career, but he’s already had Brighton twice this season — a 1-1 home draw against Millwall when the visitors had a man sent off, and a 3-1 win on this ground against top of the table Leicester when six were booked. His full list of stats and the location of our refereeing villains this Tuesday night can be found by clicking here.

Form

Brighton: Oscar Garcia’s side are fast becoming known as the division’s 1-0 win specialists — their last six league wins, and seven of their last eight, have all been by that scoreline and they also knocked Reading out of the cup 1-0 as well. Away from home they’ve only conceded 12 times, the league’s best record, and overall they’ve shipped a paltry 28 which is only two more than QPR who still have the division’s outstanding defensive record. Four teams have won here this season — Derby, Forest, Wigan and Barnsley — but they’ve only lost one of the last ten here in all competitions.

QPR: The 2-0 win at Birmingham at the weekend was a fifteenth clean sheet of the season for goalkeeper Robert Green — more than any other Football League keeper. The clean sheet actually brought a run of ten league games without a shut out to an end and that victory was the R’s first in six attempts. They’re now fourth in the league, trailing second place Brighton by nine points. QPR have been inconsistent on their travels this season with six wins, five draws and five defeats. They haven’t beaten Brighton in four attempts.

Betting: LFW’s resident professional odds compiler Owen Goulding says…

“QPR make the journey south to see if they can build on a comfortable away win at Birmingham. Brighton will be a different proposition however as they push for a play-off place. The Seagulls have lost only one of their previous ten home games and that was to a resurgent Wigan side, so this game will certainly not be a jolly by the seaside.
“Brighton's main asset is no doubt Leandro Ulloa who leads the line in excellent fashion. Dunne and Hill will have to use all their experience to keep him quiet and if they succeed in their task, that could be the catalyst to another three away points. Gordon Greer will sit this one out for Brighton and that is a massive plus for the Super Hoops as his partnership with Matthew Upson has been a big reason they have conceded only 28 goals all season and with the youngster Lewis Dunk expected to replace him, this is an area Morrison and co will look to exploit.

“Onto prices - if Redknapp finally decides to stick to a formation that seemed to work well and keeps his tinkering to a minimum, I can see a good result for QPR here and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing QPR in the Draw No Bet Market at 6/4 with William Hill. However, I do see a cautious game developing here considering both teams desire to stay clear of the chasing Play off pack and I think the 8/5 on offer for the half time score to be 0-0 looks generous.”

Recommended Bet: BHA v QPR - 0-0 Half time score - 8/5 (Boylesports)

Prediction: Reigning Prediction League Champion Mase tells us…

“Another series of Saturday - Tuesday - Saturday games continues with our second trip in four days to a team beginning with B. That is where the similarities end, however. Brighton out-thought us in the reverse fixture to become the first team to stop us winning at home this season. At home, their form has been a little patchy but nowhere near the hair-tearing standards set by Birmingham. So, I expect a tougher game than Saturday (where I only predicted we'd get a draw, incidentally) - this Prediction League crown is a curse. Unless Ravel Morrison can keep up the good work I can see Saturday being exposed as the paper-covering exercise it was.”

Mase’s Prediction: Brighton 2-1 QPR Scorer - Ravel Morrison

LFW’s Prediction: Brighton 0-0 QPR No Scorer

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BrisbaneR added 03:02 - Mar 11 "the current Birmingham team could probably be given a reasonable game by the characters from Morph"...love it....the work of a comic giant... Caught in two minds here - always want the R's to win, no questioning that. 3 pts here with a couple of winnable games coming and suddenly Burnley might be looking over their shoulder... BUT, if its another Morrison inspired victory then 'Arry is a genius for identifying an out of sorts genius who just needed to be handled correctly to get the best from him. The transfer 'policy' is justified, and the chocolate wheel keeps spinning when the window opens. I want us to go up, preferably automatically, but without any lessons appearing to have been learned from last time (by anyone?) why will it be any different..? and I couldnt take that again... Probably not the right time to raise this, but if we do go up is 'Arry the man to be in charge for that 1st season back...and to bulid a stable platform for the long term...? He can certainly get us there, but perhaps then we say thanks for a job well done..? God, I'm on the other side of the planet and it's still hard work following the R's, but once you're hooked they've got you...

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Stanisgod added 10:10 - Mar 11 I don't like the sound of that ref. Be careful Joey.
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Burnleyhoop added 19:19 - Mar 11 Has Morrisson's position sitting just in front of Barton and Jenas finally given us the balance and impetus we have been searching for? We have been floundering far too long with personnel and formation changes with no success. Maybe tonight we get the answer. Even if we fail to make automatic, perhaps we will have the form and momentum to carry us past what now looks like a well drilled Wigan team. Here's hoping........Urrrrrsssssss.

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