| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:16 - Feb 7 with 1536 views | dingdangblue |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:05 - Feb 7 by since58 |
And ???? |
And maybe we'll have a really poor home season and a decent away season and stay up. We've had seasons in the past the opposite - where we've struggled to pick up points away but been decent at home. All I know is at the end the worst 4 teams will go down - we currently aren't 1 of them and that may be the case after 46 games too. |  |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:18 - Feb 7 with 1529 views | 442Dale |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:14 - Feb 7 by Shun |
Apologies, I forgot about Bury.
I don’t see how our last-day victory over Charlton was lucky at all, similarly Oldham failing to score at Northampton. You could pick any loss out of the season and say we were unlucky that day, and that bad luck balances out the Charlton good luck and we still stay up. We stayed up that season because we were better than Oldham and the other three across 46 games. Luck had nothing to do with it.
We can be lucky over a single game and win a game we didn’t deserve to, but over a 46 game season? I’m not having that. We’ll get good luck and we’ll get bad luck - neither is enough to dictate our league position.
Our home form is disastrous but I don’t see how luck has anything to do with that. In so far as there are no teams on points deductions, this is a normal 46 game season, and we currently aren’t on course to be relegated. |
On your last point, we almost certainly are as we are currently on course to get 46 points. The stats back that up over the last decade.
The position remains the same as it did yesterday, the next two games might not necessarily decide our season but they could have a massive impact on the manager. |  |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:23 - Feb 7 with 1519 views | D_Alien |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:18 - Feb 7 by 442Dale |
On your last point, we almost certainly are as we are currently on course to get 46 points. The stats back that up over the last decade.
The position remains the same as it did yesterday, the next two games might not necessarily decide our season but they could have a massive impact on the manager. |
I ask myself, can he really be so naive as not to imagine his position is under threat?
Unless he's been given categorical assurances that it isn't, even if we're relegated. How else to explain his seemingly blasé attitude toward results? |  |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:31 - Feb 7 with 1507 views | dawlishdale |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:14 - Feb 7 by Shun |
Apologies, I forgot about Bury.
I don’t see how our last-day victory over Charlton was lucky at all, similarly Oldham failing to score at Northampton. You could pick any loss out of the season and say we were unlucky that day, and that bad luck balances out the Charlton good luck and we still stay up. We stayed up that season because we were better than Oldham and the other three across 46 games. Luck had nothing to do with it.
We can be lucky over a single game and win a game we didn’t deserve to, but over a 46 game season? I’m not having that. We’ll get good luck and we’ll get bad luck - neither is enough to dictate our league position.
Our home form is disastrous but I don’t see how luck has anything to do with that. In so far as there are no teams on points deductions, this is a normal 46 game season, and we currently aren’t on course to be relegated. |
We were incredibly lucky that Charlton had just qualified for the play offs, and therefore rested most of their best players. Had they needed to win, I am certain that they would have performed better. |  | | |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:44 - Feb 7 with 1471 views | dingdangblue |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:31 - Feb 7 by dawlishdale |
We were incredibly lucky that Charlton had just qualified for the play offs, and therefore rested most of their best players. Had they needed to win, I am certain that they would have performed better. |
And Oldham were playing a team relegated with nothing to play for - and they couldn't beat them even though they had everything to play for. Out of their final 17 away games that season they won 1. They deserved to drop. | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 00:07 - Feb 8 with 1433 views | Shun |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:44 - Feb 7 by dingdangblue |
And Oldham were playing a team relegated with nothing to play for - and they couldn't beat them even though they had everything to play for. Out of their final 17 away games that season they won 1. They deserved to drop. |
Precisely. For every argument to say we were lucky there’s a counter-argument to say we were unlucky. As I keep saying, it generally balances itself out to the point where the notion of luck is completely negligible. |  | | |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 00:11 - Feb 8 with 1430 views | Shun |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:18 - Feb 7 by 442Dale |
On your last point, we almost certainly are as we are currently on course to get 46 points. The stats back that up over the last decade.
The position remains the same as it did yesterday, the next two games might not necessarily decide our season but they could have a massive impact on the manager. |
Actually, we almost certainly aren’t. The bottom four are. If we’re on course to finish with 46 points then the six teams below us are on course to finish with even less than that. On PPG we’ll finish in the position of... 18th. Exactly where we are now. | | | |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 00:32 - Feb 8 with 1420 views | 442Dale |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 00:11 - Feb 8 by Shun |
Actually, we almost certainly aren’t. The bottom four are. If we’re on course to finish with 46 points then the six teams below us are on course to finish with even less than that. On PPG we’ll finish in the position of... 18th. Exactly where we are now. |
Which would mean that the rare event would occur and a team with 46 points would stay up and thus the sides below us would all not pick up the points to surpass that.. which would be a stroke of luck indeed. | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 01:58 - Feb 8 with 1378 views | pioneer |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:18 - Feb 7 by 442Dale |
On your last point, we almost certainly are as we are currently on course to get 46 points. The stats back that up over the last decade.
The position remains the same as it did yesterday, the next two games might not necessarily decide our season but they could have a massive impact on the manager. |
By "on course" you mean if we get the same number of points per game as we have averaged in games so far then we will end up on 46.
And what evidence is there that teams do end up the season with the same average points per game over 46 games as they had after 26 games? Sounds like the sort of optimism we might expect from the manager's post game comments.
Makes far more sense to look at the number of points needed to stay up in previous seasons (particularly those seasons when points deductions didn't come into it) and then calculate how many points we need from the last 20 games to get to that level.
So if 51 was to represent safety (three teams have been relegated with 50 points during the 5 season prior to last years points-deduction-affected table ) we would need 25 points from 20 games - that's more points per game than we currently have.
In that 5 season period 46 points would have had us finish 23 twice, 22nd once and 21 twice.
We are in a relegation battle which ever way you look at it and we need every point we can scrape together to avoid finishing in the bottom four. Current points per game average is unlikely to be sufficient.
This kept me busy during HT of SB! | | | |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 07:34 - Feb 8 with 1311 views | TVOS1907 |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 01:58 - Feb 8 by pioneer |
By "on course" you mean if we get the same number of points per game as we have averaged in games so far then we will end up on 46.
And what evidence is there that teams do end up the season with the same average points per game over 46 games as they had after 26 games? Sounds like the sort of optimism we might expect from the manager's post game comments.
Makes far more sense to look at the number of points needed to stay up in previous seasons (particularly those seasons when points deductions didn't come into it) and then calculate how many points we need from the last 20 games to get to that level.
So if 51 was to represent safety (three teams have been relegated with 50 points during the 5 season prior to last years points-deduction-affected table ) we would need 25 points from 20 games - that's more points per game than we currently have.
In that 5 season period 46 points would have had us finish 23 twice, 22nd once and 21 twice.
We are in a relegation battle which ever way you look at it and we need every point we can scrape together to avoid finishing in the bottom four. Current points per game average is unlikely to be sufficient.
This kept me busy during HT of SB! |
I fear you might have missed 442's point. |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 08:08 - Feb 8 with 1289 views | judd |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 23:14 - Feb 7 by Shun |
Apologies, I forgot about Bury.
I don’t see how our last-day victory over Charlton was lucky at all, similarly Oldham failing to score at Northampton. You could pick any loss out of the season and say we were unlucky that day, and that bad luck balances out the Charlton good luck and we still stay up. We stayed up that season because we were better than Oldham and the other three across 46 games. Luck had nothing to do with it.
We can be lucky over a single game and win a game we didn’t deserve to, but over a 46 game season? I’m not having that. We’ll get good luck and we’ll get bad luck - neither is enough to dictate our league position.
Our home form is disastrous but I don’t see how luck has anything to do with that. In so far as there are no teams on points deductions, this is a normal 46 game season, and we currently aren’t on course to be relegated. |
The Charlton game was a combination of events that we only had a part to play in. They we re a half-hearted second string, and we certainly had no part in the planning of the outcome of Oldham's game.
You believe the outcome meritorious, I believe it was luck. We will have to agree to differ.
I do not think this season is normal. No crowds, games played more frequently, finances dictating a lack of activity in the transfer market by competitors. Not that I am advocating it, but 1 home win in a normal season at this stage may very well have seen a new manager coming in. I also think the board has budgeted for a season with an acceptance that relegation is more possible than in the previous 3, which I doubt would have been the case if we did not have the pandemic. |  |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 09:13 - Feb 8 with 1221 views | Shun |
I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this one as there’s no way either of us is changing the other’s mind! | | | |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 09:34 - Feb 8 with 1201 views | judd |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 09:13 - Feb 8 by Shun |
I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this one as there’s no way either of us is changing the other’s mind! |
Agreed! | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 10:12 - Feb 8 with 1163 views | James1980 |
My musings are as follows. Based on PPG we will stay up if Dale and the rest of the bottom half of the table continue their form since the start of the season. I know it is unlikely to play out like that though, that isn't to say we will be one of the teams below 20th place though come the end of game 46.
On the whole manager out campaign I think you're all piddling in the wind. My interpretation is that Hill was sacked due to a combination of the atmosphere in the club and results/performances. Despite issues on the pitch it appears the morale is good and the players have a lot of time for BBM as he does for them. I'm of the opinion had KH not 'lost the dressing room' he wouldn't have been sacked when he was.
We still have plenty of points to play for, yes as do the rest of the teams around us of course. | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 10:33 - Feb 8 with 1138 views | nordenblue |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 10:12 - Feb 8 by James1980 |
My musings are as follows. Based on PPG we will stay up if Dale and the rest of the bottom half of the table continue their form since the start of the season. I know it is unlikely to play out like that though, that isn't to say we will be one of the teams below 20th place though come the end of game 46.
On the whole manager out campaign I think you're all piddling in the wind. My interpretation is that Hill was sacked due to a combination of the atmosphere in the club and results/performances. Despite issues on the pitch it appears the morale is good and the players have a lot of time for BBM as he does for them. I'm of the opinion had KH not 'lost the dressing room' he wouldn't have been sacked when he was.
We still have plenty of points to play for, yes as do the rest of the teams around us of course. |
Some good points James, but it's not the dressing room well wishers that will keep BBM in a job it's a results driven business and he's not producing enough of them, the players are under performing massively, that together with a manager obsessed by playing a certain way the majority of the time....that clearly doesn't work. [Post edited 8 Feb 2021 11:09]
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:02 - Feb 8 with 1092 views | TVOS1907 |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 10:12 - Feb 8 by James1980 |
My musings are as follows. Based on PPG we will stay up if Dale and the rest of the bottom half of the table continue their form since the start of the season. I know it is unlikely to play out like that though, that isn't to say we will be one of the teams below 20th place though come the end of game 46.
On the whole manager out campaign I think you're all piddling in the wind. My interpretation is that Hill was sacked due to a combination of the atmosphere in the club and results/performances. Despite issues on the pitch it appears the morale is good and the players have a lot of time for BBM as he does for them. I'm of the opinion had KH not 'lost the dressing room' he wouldn't have been sacked when he was.
We still have plenty of points to play for, yes as do the rest of the teams around us of course. |
"On the whole manager out campaign I think you're all piddling in the wind."
All? | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:08 - Feb 8 with 1083 views | James1980 |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:02 - Feb 8 by TVOS1907 |
"On the whole manager out campaign I think you're all piddling in the wind."
All? |
Those that have an unwavering conviction BBM must go. | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:15 - Feb 8 with 1057 views | AtThePeake |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 17:09 - Feb 6 by Dale23years |
Give some positive about BBM and why he deserves to keep his job.
Thank you try to keep away from this fourm (since BDMC or whatever hes called) incident. |
I don't think it's fair at all to suggest there are no positives. The use of Matheson and Baah in first-team squads saw them develop into huge saleable assets. There have been enjoyable cup runs and the recruitment of players has generally been pretty good. I'd also remind people that in the summer we were huge odds-on to get relegated. We were the same price to stay in L1 as Wycombe were to stay in the Championship. I expected us to finish rock bottom. Looking at the season overall, if he keeps us up, I'd struggle to say he'd done anything other than a good job this season given what my pre-season expectations were.
The thing is, I now believe there is more than enough in this squad to stay up but I'm not convinced that it happens because of the mistakes and wrong decisions we continue to make though and Saturday was maybe the most frustrating yet. After a relatively positive deadline day and a good win last weekend my hopes were so high - instead we rolled over and showed absolutely nothing. I think there have been positives about BBM's reign but I can't think of a single one from Saturday. Utter dross.
This cult of possession we all talk about, it doesn't work. We try and keep the ball in areas that are way, way too deep and as a result, we are often pressured into smashing it long anyway. Only four teams in the whole league have played more long balls than us this season despite the fact that it's obviously not in the game plan. We attempted over 90 long balls on Saturday. We had to do it because we aren't good enough to play out from the back and by the time we had made 3 or 4 aimless passes in our own third we were under so much pressure that we had to hoof it clear anyway. We might as well go long in the first place if that's what's going to happen. Another stat, as Jonahwhereru pointed out I mentioned on the podcast the other week is that we rank 24th for winning possession in the final third this season. We won the ball in the final third twice on Saturday. That's the issue with the philosophy more than the possession for me. It's no wonder we are forced into keeping the ball at the back when it's the only part of the pitch we ever try to win it in.
Charlton played well. They have better players than us and played well so were likely to win. The issue is that really, they could and probably should have won by 5 or 6 on Saturday. If they are THAT good then we would never have scored four against them last month. They would never have lost to Accrington or MK Dons or Burton Albion. I can't stand this attitude of 'well they're better than us so we obviously weren't going to win' that seems to seep through from some fans when we lose to a bigger side in the league. What happened to no fear football and taking on Southamptons and Sheffield Uniteds like the League One sides that they were at the time? Why are some fans now so keen to suggest our current team aren't good enough to compete against top-half L1 sides? I may have thought we would finish bottom of the table, but I at least thought we would put up a fight in every game. I'd rather us try to compete and lose because we're not good enough than lose rolling over because we don't believe we can compete.
Also on a more specific point - I'm not sure why everyone is desperate for Roberts to be in the starting XI, he's been one of our worst performers for a long time now. Just leave him out rather than trying to push him into midfield or left-back. |  |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:17 - Feb 8 with 1054 views | TVOS1907 |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:08 - Feb 8 by James1980 |
Those that have an unwavering conviction BBM must go. |
I knew that's what you meant, but you seem to be suggesting/implying it's a lot of people
Based on PPG, yes, Dale would stay up as it stands, but that could change in next to no time if we don't start winning games, especially at home.
Why do you think Hill "lost the dressing room"? That's never been rumoured or mentioned. He lost the ability to organise his defence more than anything, which BBM rectified almost immediately. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:24 - Feb 8 with 1038 views | AtThePeake |
Also I'm not sure what this re-writing of history is about with regards to the Charlton game in 17/18. They took their foot off the gas in the second half, but only because Plymouth were losing heavily at Gillingham. Had Plymouth been winning by a similar scoreline, Charlton's spot in the play-offs would've been under threat. Of the 12 players that played 30 or more games for them that season, 9 started in that game, so how anyone has come to the conclusion that it was a second string team they put out that day I've no idea.
This post has been edited by an administrator | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:32 - Feb 8 with 1020 views | tony_roch975 |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:15 - Feb 8 by AtThePeake |
I don't think it's fair at all to suggest there are no positives. The use of Matheson and Baah in first-team squads saw them develop into huge saleable assets. There have been enjoyable cup runs and the recruitment of players has generally been pretty good. I'd also remind people that in the summer we were huge odds-on to get relegated. We were the same price to stay in L1 as Wycombe were to stay in the Championship. I expected us to finish rock bottom. Looking at the season overall, if he keeps us up, I'd struggle to say he'd done anything other than a good job this season given what my pre-season expectations were.
The thing is, I now believe there is more than enough in this squad to stay up but I'm not convinced that it happens because of the mistakes and wrong decisions we continue to make though and Saturday was maybe the most frustrating yet. After a relatively positive deadline day and a good win last weekend my hopes were so high - instead we rolled over and showed absolutely nothing. I think there have been positives about BBM's reign but I can't think of a single one from Saturday. Utter dross.
This cult of possession we all talk about, it doesn't work. We try and keep the ball in areas that are way, way too deep and as a result, we are often pressured into smashing it long anyway. Only four teams in the whole league have played more long balls than us this season despite the fact that it's obviously not in the game plan. We attempted over 90 long balls on Saturday. We had to do it because we aren't good enough to play out from the back and by the time we had made 3 or 4 aimless passes in our own third we were under so much pressure that we had to hoof it clear anyway. We might as well go long in the first place if that's what's going to happen. Another stat, as Jonahwhereru pointed out I mentioned on the podcast the other week is that we rank 24th for winning possession in the final third this season. We won the ball in the final third twice on Saturday. That's the issue with the philosophy more than the possession for me. It's no wonder we are forced into keeping the ball at the back when it's the only part of the pitch we ever try to win it in.
Charlton played well. They have better players than us and played well so were likely to win. The issue is that really, they could and probably should have won by 5 or 6 on Saturday. If they are THAT good then we would never have scored four against them last month. They would never have lost to Accrington or MK Dons or Burton Albion. I can't stand this attitude of 'well they're better than us so we obviously weren't going to win' that seems to seep through from some fans when we lose to a bigger side in the league. What happened to no fear football and taking on Southamptons and Sheffield Uniteds like the League One sides that they were at the time? Why are some fans now so keen to suggest our current team aren't good enough to compete against top-half L1 sides? I may have thought we would finish bottom of the table, but I at least thought we would put up a fight in every game. I'd rather us try to compete and lose because we're not good enough than lose rolling over because we don't believe we can compete.
Also on a more specific point - I'm not sure why everyone is desperate for Roberts to be in the starting XI, he's been one of our worst performers for a long time now. Just leave him out rather than trying to push him into midfield or left-back. |
good argument and agree about Roberts; as to the nostalgia for when we competed against the then 'big boys' in League 1 - could it be that the gap between the resources and abilities of the current top teams in League 1 and the likes of Dale is widening year on year just like in all other leagues? | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:41 - Feb 8 with 1010 views | judd |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:24 - Feb 8 by AtThePeake |
Also I'm not sure what this re-writing of history is about with regards to the Charlton game in 17/18. They took their foot off the gas in the second half, but only because Plymouth were losing heavily at Gillingham. Had Plymouth been winning by a similar scoreline, Charlton's spot in the play-offs would've been under threat. Of the 12 players that played 30 or more games for them that season, 9 started in that game, so how anyone has come to the conclusion that it was a second string team they put out that day I've no idea.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
Fair enough re: the Charlton team - it was me who mentioned it and was based on conversations with several Charlton fans after the game about them putting out a weakened team.
They certainly did not look interested in bursting a gut to win it, though. | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:44 - Feb 8 with 1005 views | AtThePeake |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:41 - Feb 8 by judd |
Fair enough re: the Charlton team - it was me who mentioned it and was based on conversations with several Charlton fans after the game about them putting out a weakened team.
They certainly did not look interested in bursting a gut to win it, though. |
Agreed, second half they definitely slacked off given the scoreline in the Plymouth game. | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:50 - Feb 8 with 983 views | AtThePeake |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:32 - Feb 8 by tony_roch975 |
good argument and agree about Roberts; as to the nostalgia for when we competed against the then 'big boys' in League 1 - could it be that the gap between the resources and abilities of the current top teams in League 1 and the likes of Dale is widening year on year just like in all other leagues? |
Possibly but if so that would be a case of us regressing rather than those at the top improving. Look at some of the players in that Southampton side we beat - they certainly had plenty of resource and ability. | |
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| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:51 - Feb 8 with 982 views | TVOS1907 |
| Match Thread: Rochdale vs Charlton on 11:41 - Feb 8 by judd |
Fair enough re: the Charlton team - it was me who mentioned it and was based on conversations with several Charlton fans after the game about them putting out a weakened team.
They certainly did not look interested in bursting a gut to win it, though. |
Although, on the subject of "luck", I seem to recall Charlton should/could have had a second half penalty when Rafferty (I think) clearly handled a goalbound shot in the area. Unfortunately, it's not on the YouTube highlights.
The football gods decreed that was going to be our day, I reckon. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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