| What the statisticians say 21:53 - Oct 28 with 5074 views | Pacemaker |
According to this site which is apparently well respected we will scrape into the playoffs.
It is apparently run by American statto Nate Silver, I don’t know how accurate this will be but will be interesting to see how it turns out.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
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| What the statisticians say on 22:14 - Oct 28 with 5006 views | ladyjack |
If it ended up like that 'scrape into the play offs' would be a very apt phase, but a welcome one for lots of fans im sure. |  | | |
| What the statisticians say on 22:18 - Oct 28 with 4991 views | Garyjack |
I was thinking about this scenario earlier today. If we got into the play offs and won at Wembley, how would our current team/squad fare against the side that won in 2011? They would be absolutely annihilated by 5 or 6 goals. The standard of football in the Championship has declined alarmingly in the last few years. |  | | |
| What the statisticians say on 22:25 - Oct 28 with 4959 views | Highjack |
| What the statisticians say on 22:18 - Oct 28 by Garyjack |
I was thinking about this scenario earlier today. If we got into the play offs and won at Wembley, how would our current team/squad fare against the side that won in 2011? They would be absolutely annihilated by 5 or 6 goals. The standard of football in the Championship has declined alarmingly in the last few years. |
No it hasn’t. Most championship sides still hoofed it back then. |  |
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| What the statisticians say on 22:32 - Oct 28 with 4939 views | Garyjack |
| What the statisticians say on 22:25 - Oct 28 by Highjack |
No it hasn’t. Most championship sides still hoofed it back then. |
Maybe. But the top sides had much more quality than they do now. Do you think our current side could compete against the 2011 side, Taking in to account of course the Hypothetical scenario that we 'scraped' into the play offs and actually won it? | | | |
| What the statisticians say on 22:41 - Oct 28 with 4900 views | Tummer_from_Texas |
So basically, they are forecasting Swansea to earn 44 more points in our remaining 32 fixtures (1.375 points/fixture). Most likely 12W-8D-12L or 13-5-14.
Seems a bit conservative, considering thus far, even AFTER the poor run in September and October, we've averaged 1.786 points/fixture this season.
That said, I don't think 69 points would be enough to keep us in the top 6. I'm thinking it will take at least 75 points, which requires 1.563 points/fixture from here on out. |  |
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| What the statisticians say on 23:04 - Oct 28 with 4849 views | ploppy |
This league never ceases to amaze me. Even after our poor run of form we're still 4th, or joint 2nd if we're just comparing points. It's bonkers - but good. |  | | |
| What the statisticians say on 03:29 - Oct 29 with 4706 views | TimTtam |
| What the statisticians say on 22:18 - Oct 28 by Garyjack |
I was thinking about this scenario earlier today. If we got into the play offs and won at Wembley, how would our current team/squad fare against the side that won in 2011? They would be absolutely annihilated by 5 or 6 goals. The standard of football in the Championship has declined alarmingly in the last few years. |
If we go up we'll likely spend a bit. Not a huge amount, but we'll make a few decent signings, based on our previous time in the PL making us an attractive destination. We already have some PL-quality players, so it makes assembling a team easier too. Then add in the fact that there are always some very average PL sides, and I'd expect us to but up a good fight. |  |
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| What the statisticians say on 06:35 - Oct 29 with 4638 views | Dr_Winston |
| What the statisticians say on 22:32 - Oct 28 by Garyjack |
Maybe. But the top sides had much more quality than they do now. Do you think our current side could compete against the 2011 side, Taking in to account of course the Hypothetical scenario that we 'scraped' into the play offs and actually won it? |
The 2011 team and manager would beat this one like a red headed stepchild. We've already seen this season what a far from prime Joe Allen can do to our midfield. Take eight years off him and put two out of Britton, Pratley and Dobbie alongside him in the centre and it's almost scary to think about.
Had Rodgers pushed the Dobster into the #10 role five or six months earlier we'd have won the division IMO.
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| What the statisticians say on 06:42 - Oct 29 with 4632 views | Thornburyswan |
| What the statisticians say on 03:29 - Oct 29 by TimTtam |
If we go up we'll likely spend a bit. Not a huge amount, but we'll make a few decent signings, based on our previous time in the PL making us an attractive destination. We already have some PL-quality players, so it makes assembling a team easier too. Then add in the fact that there are always some very average PL sides, and I'd expect us to but up a good fight. |
IF (& it’s a big if for me) we were to go up our best hope would be a swift sale to exit our American friends & build from there . . . . . . but if we went up via the play-offs then the time for sale/buy & invest would be incredibly tight.
Agree our current squad is a long way short of the side we beat Reading with but in most years the bottom 5/6 in the Prem are not a long way ahead of the sides coming up, so suspect we’d be very short priced favourites to go back down we’d have a shot at staying up. | | | |
| What the statisticians say on 23:36 - Jul 8 with 4006 views | Tummer_from_Texas |
Thought it would be interesting to revisit this. Swans are now 27% to make the playoffs. | |
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| What the statisticians say on 11:35 - Jul 9 with 3781 views | Badlands |
Annihilation.
Replay the Reading game or the Forest games and tell me how this side would cope.
A different formation (we use to play wide with wingers) but last night's set up compared with Swans v forest play-off home team
De Vries - Woodman ... De Vries
Rangel - Naughton ... Rangel,
Williams - Guehi .... Williams,
Monk - Cabango ... Cabango :-)
Tate - Wilmot ... Tate
Dobbie - Fulton ... Dobbie
Allen - Grimes ... Allen
Britton - Gallagher ... Britton
Dyer - Robert ... Dyer
Borini - Ayew ... Borini
Sinclair - Brewster ... Sinclair |  |
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| What the statisticians say on 16:56 - Jul 9 with 3665 views | 1462jack |
| What the statisticians say on 11:35 - Jul 9 by Badlands |
Annihilation.
Replay the Reading game or the Forest games and tell me how this side would cope.
A different formation (we use to play wide with wingers) but last night's set up compared with Swans v forest play-off home team
De Vries - Woodman ... De Vries
Rangel - Naughton ... Rangel,
Williams - Guehi .... Williams,
Monk - Cabango ... Cabango :-)
Tate - Wilmot ... Tate
Dobbie - Fulton ... Dobbie
Allen - Grimes ... Allen
Britton - Gallagher ... Britton
Dyer - Robert ... Dyer
Borini - Ayew ... Borini
Sinclair - Brewster ... Sinclair |
We would have ruined us |  | | |
| What the statisticians say on 00:53 - Jul 10 with 3524 views | Glyn1 |
| What the statisticians say on 23:36 - Jul 8 by Tummer_from_Texas |
Thought it would be interesting to revisit this. Swans are now 27% to make the playoffs. |
Yes, thanks for this. Cardiff scraping into the play-offs is becoming worryingly plausible. Swansea having to beat Leeds in an empty Liberty Stadium is the stuff of nightmares. |  |
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| What the statisticians say on 07:06 - Jul 10 with 3482 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| What the statisticians say on 00:53 - Jul 10 by Glyn1 |
Yes, thanks for this. Cardiff scraping into the play-offs is becoming worryingly plausible. Swansea having to beat Leeds in an empty Liberty Stadium is the stuff of nightmares. |
I know that Leeds are a good team and their energy alone will cause us lots of problems. However unlike teams such as Luton they’re not coming to park the bus. They’re going all out to win, which should at least allow us to be able to hurt them if we can turn over possession quickly.
Plus we always seem to be up for the big games. I’m not saying we’ll definitely win or get hammered. But we’ve got a chance of winning if everyone is on top of their game. |  |
| Each time I go to Bedd - au........................ |
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| What the statisticians say on 08:15 - Jul 10 with 3463 views | sainthelens |
| What the statisticians say on 07:06 - Jul 10 by Brynmill_Jack |
I know that Leeds are a good team and their energy alone will cause us lots of problems. However unlike teams such as Luton they’re not coming to park the bus. They’re going all out to win, which should at least allow us to be able to hurt them if we can turn over possession quickly.
Plus we always seem to be up for the big games. I’m not saying we’ll definitely win or get hammered. But we’ve got a chance of winning if everyone is on top of their game. |
First goal in this will be huge. Lids basically don't lose when they get it. But having watched them few times, they do play a ridiculous high line, and as long as our defence don't capitulate, Andre and Rhian could cause chaos. Just hope that Pablo will be on the bench or he will open us up for fun. |  | | |
| What the statisticians say on 08:58 - Jul 10 with 3440 views | Professor |
| What the statisticians say on 11:35 - Jul 9 by Badlands |
Annihilation.
Replay the Reading game or the Forest games and tell me how this side would cope.
A different formation (we use to play wide with wingers) but last night's set up compared with Swans v forest play-off home team
De Vries - Woodman ... De Vries
Rangel - Naughton ... Rangel,
Williams - Guehi .... Williams,
Monk - Cabango ... Cabango :-)
Tate - Wilmot ... Tate
Dobbie - Fulton ... Dobbie
Allen - Grimes ... Allen
Britton - Gallagher ... Britton
Dyer - Robert ... Dyer
Borini - Ayew ... Borini
Sinclair - Brewster ... Sinclair |
I think I would take Brewster as an absolute natural goal scorer and Ayew over Sinclair and Borini. Otherwise I have no argument | | | |
| What the statisticians say on 14:08 - Jul 10 with 3333 views | Catullus |
| What the statisticians say on 03:29 - Oct 29 by TimTtam |
If we go up we'll likely spend a bit. Not a huge amount, but we'll make a few decent signings, based on our previous time in the PL making us an attractive destination. We already have some PL-quality players, so it makes assembling a team easier too. Then add in the fact that there are always some very average PL sides, and I'd expect us to but up a good fight. |
Rhat is the most optimistic thing I've read in a long time!
In my opinion Cooper would be told to carry on with the same recruitment plan, the owners hoping to avoid relegation but unwilling to spend large for what would still be a gamble. Relegation would offer large profits even if we were bottom and even if the fans stayed away and the Liberty was empty every game.
Honestly, how many PL quality players do you say we have? Ayew, Rodon.....anyone else and one of those has potential to be great, the other one is possibly PL quality bit failed to perform for WHU or on his return here, only really being any good in the Championship.
Grimes, Byers and Fulton are nowhere near the standard we'd need, Bidwell, John? To be honest I think you're clutching. | |
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| What the statisticians say on 19:06 - Jul 10 with 3297 views | Glyn1 |
[Deleted. Posted on wrong thread.] [Post edited 10 Jul 2020 19:08]
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