QPR are winning, and keeping clean sheets, again, despite abandoning possession of the ball and their early season style, but will that hold in another home game they're expected to dominate and win?

QPR (3-9-7 LLDWDW 20th) v Oxford (4-6-8 LWLLLD 19th)

Sky’s Super Saturday Brunch Spectacular >>> Wednesday December 11, 2024 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Weather – Cold, grey, dark >>> Loftus Road, London, W12

I’m not quite sure why I did it to myself but from last night’s veritable smorgasbord of delights offered by the division that “changes lives” (© Gary Weaver) I decided to sit through another 90 minutes of Norwich City, away at Portsmouth. It probably didn’t need the nil nil final score to tell you this was a grave error on my part

I’d just found them such an odd watch on Saturday I think I wanted to know whether it was a one-off or not. It was not. Once again they spent the evening mostly trying to get sent off: Ashley Barnes, on a booking, elbows the centre back in the side of the head; Marcelino Nunez dives in out of control on the Pompey centre back, then chases the linesman down the touchline. In the end manager Johannes Hoff Thorup had to take off three of the players on yellows to stop them getting sent off, just as he’d done with Kellen Fisher at the weekend after his horror tackle on Nicolas Madsen. Kenny McLean copped a second retrospective four-game ban of the season for his forearm swing into Kieran Morgan’s substantial mush at Loftus Road at the weekend. What is it with Norwich and 6ft 18-year-olds? If I didn’t know better I’d say a few of these lads were eyeing a ticket on the Joel Lynch Polar Express special to Dubai.

Thorup spent the build up to Tuesday saying his play out from the back style can be useful in quietening the crowds at tight, old school venues like Loftus Road and Fratton Park. One point and no goals to show for that theory this week at least. Viz Top Tip – quieten the crowd at tough away grounds by having Shane Duffy dribble the ball round his own penalty area while Angus Gunn hangs out in the East Paddock.

As said in the weekend match report, this is becoming what ChatGP Nourry might call a “hot button issue” in football at the moment. Russell Martin, like Vincent Kompany at Burnley before him, seems not only ready and willing to get relegated trying to play out from the back against Chelsea when you’ve got Joe Lumley in goal, but more or less thrilled to death about it. Ange Postecoglou happier to lose the biggest job he’s had in his career, and may likely ever get again, than cede on his style and ethos. Willing to repeatedly go multiple goals up against Chelsea and lose, rather than just spend an hour doing something a little bit different.

The sports psychologist fraternity, particularly those that reside in long drawn-out Twitter threads, will tell you these men are principled genius who will reap rewards for them and their teams in the medium to long term. That as soon as you give an inch, cede on your ethos and message even very slightly, you’re dead in the eyes of your group. I don’t know, I’ve never played professional football, but I think I’d respond better to a pragmatic coach willing to make changes and adaptations on the run depending on the situation and opponent, than somebody who sends us out to do the same thing every week regardless of who we’re playing and the fact we haven’t won for months. Repeatedly repeating the same action when it’s not working is the sort of management that sent tens of thousands of lads to their death over the top in the World Wars, presumably because they thought the machine guns would eventually get tired. Lions led by donkeys and all that.

I think you do have to have a style and ethos that underpins what you’re doing and where you want to get to. What, in an ideal world, your team will look and play like. But letting that dominate over all else, over occasional moments of pragmatism or adaptation, is one of modern football’s strangest and most ridiculous trends. If you’ve got beaten 3-0 away at Middlesbrough on a Tuesday night, believe me, nobody making that long slog back home is going to be talking about “at least we stayed true to ourselves”. They’re going to be pissed. Players, supporters, board members. And they’re right.

With this in mind it’s been interesting what has happened at QPR in recent weeks.

Having finished last season in play-off form – eight wins, three draws, three defeats from the last 14 games – I think the expectation this time around was for the team and club to emerge from a nightmare couple of years and push back off into at least midtable. There hasn’t been as much optimism around QPR, both from their own fans and outside, since the summer of 2021. And the style and set up in the late summer and early autumns games very much reflected this. QPR were going to be very open, very attacking, with as many of Andersen, Saito, Dembele and Chair on the pitch at once, behind Michy Frey, with only cursory midfield cover behind, and absolutely no protection at all for the full backs.

Who knows, had injuries not bitten, and some early missteps against Plymouth and Hull gone the other way they easily could have done, momentum might have built, teams would have started fearing us and sitting back. It might have worked. Neither of those things happened though, and increasingly we just looked a weak, meek, flash lot. Easy to play against. Wide open through midfield. Often exposed out wide. Easy to score against – no clean sheets in the first 14 games, even with the new French goalkeeper performing heroics. It’s all very well talking about "game models", but you’ve got to be difficult to play against first and foremost. It’s the Championship. There’s some much more basic stuff needs doing before you can start dick swinging about your little computer programmes – things like your central midfielder winning the occasional tackle.

More recently there has been a reverse in approach, and results. QPR have two wins in three games, two defeats in nine, unbeaten in four. They have kept five clean sheets in eight games, as many as their previous 32 in all comps, and haven’t conceded at all in three matches. This despite them having less of the ball. In each of the last three games (wins to nil against Cardiff and Norwich, and what surely should have been the same against Watford) they’ve had 32%, 37% and 37% of the possession respectively. For a nil nil at high flying Burnley they had barely a quarter of the ball. On Saturday against Norwich we played the conditions far better than they did, looked a niggly and nasty side on a constant wind up, and were fundamentally difficult to play against. Once you've set that up as your base, then you can tell Lucas to go get the hairband.

This mirrors some of the changes we saw Marti Cifuentes make on the run last season while he wrestled with a difficult inheritance from Gareth Ainsworth. He’d come in talking Cruyffian ideals and the like, got some early results from the very obvious reunification of Illy and Willy, but then slumped again through Christmas and had to get pragmatic. There’s no way a coach raised on Johan Cruyff ideals has a midfield with the likes of Isaac Hayden and Sam Field in it, Jimmy Dunne at right back and so on. But that is what Cifuentes had to work with here, and work with it he did. It was one of the things I admired most about him last year – that ability to find a solution, get a tune out of these players, set a team up to win away at Leicester, then set it up a completely different way to win at Swansea, or at home to Birmingham.

The whole summer debate was whether we’d see pragmatic Marti or idealist Marti this year and, whoever drove it, it felt like we went too much towards the latter, too quickly. There was an almost hubristic arrogance to how QPR approached the start of this season. Like we’d arrived. We have, more recently, gone back to a style which probably wouldn’t be the manager’s first choice, and probably isn’t what the supporters want to see as a long term vision for the club, but it suits the players we have here now. We’re pressing higher, we’re crowding the strip down the middle of the pitch almost with a three, three, three set up, and we’re letting opponents have the wings. Lo, Jimmy Dunne and Steve Cook, as they did last year, are coming into their own as the team’s key men. Kieran Morgan, brought in as a development squad player, is now a key member of the first team because he provides legs and energy in midfield. This time last year Elijah Dixon-Bonner performed a similar role, one of Cifuentes' first decisions as manager. You've got to run in this league. Having fairly basic youth team players who will makes a substantial difference over more senior, talented players who won't.

The issue tonight, apart from who exactly is going to play up front, and our chronic fear of playing teams who are yet to win away, is what happens when you’re playing an opponent against whom you’re expected to not only win, but also dominate against (not in a disrespectful way, far from it)?

QPR have played six sides in the bottom half of the table at home so far, including three of the bottom four, and beaten none of them. Hull (24th) and Portsmouth (21st) have both already won here largely by letting QPR punch themselves out and then picking them off.

Oxford, for me, are a much better side than both of them and that makes tonight a very tricky prospect indeed.

Links >>> Oxford’s Champ return – Oppo Profile >>> Tricky opening day – History >>> Newbie – Referee >>> Oxford official website >>> Oxford Mail — Local Press >>> Last Word on Sport —Blog >>> Vital Oxford — Blog >>> Yellows Forum — Message Board >>> The Fence End — Podcast >>> T’Manor — Podcast

Below the fold

Team News: Just as well Rayan Kolli hit the ground running on Saturday with that extraordinary display off the bench, because it’s difficult to see how Rangers won’t be heavily reliant on the teenager for the busy Christmas period of fixtures. There’s a social media rumour that he’s come down with the virus that’s going around which would be… very QPR indeed.

Zan Celar, just as he seemed to be getting it together a bit, has torn his hamstring which is usually a good three months at best. Michy Frey, the only other senior striker in the squad, is due back before Christmas (i.e. Preston at home) according to the club’s latest reconciliatory attempt at open, honest transparency. From no information at all to two injury updates in a week, the ambassador really spoils us. The upshot seems to be that Ilias Chair, Jake Clarke-Salter and Frey are due back imminently, Jack Colback’s progress back from “the first surgery of his professional career” is chugging along rather slower than first pitched, Dembele you’ll be lucky if you ever see again but Kenneth Paal should be fine for tonight.

Oxford’s positive start to their first season at this level in 25 years has been somewhat derailed and hampered by a clutch of injuries to key players. Louie Sibley and Leicester loanee Ben Nelson were two of the more eye-catching names from a summer intake of 16 that included former R’s Matts Ingram and Phillips, but Sibley has only made one start thanks to injury and Nelson has returned to Leicester with a shin problem picked up in early November. The other Dembele brother isn’t having much better luck than our one – Siriki is sidelined with an ankle injury. Kyle Edwards hasn’t featured since October. First choice left back Joe Bennett didn’t even make the 25-man squad because he’s been sidelined long term by a series of dreadful sleeve tattoos.

Elsewhere: If you, like us, were looking forward to seeing how a Millwall manager calling the club’s own fans out as “thickos” was going to play out, then I’m afraid we’re all going to be left disappointed. Harris made the remarks in the wake of the weekend 1-0 loss at home to Coventry and will now leave the club ‘by mutual consent’ following this weekend’s game with Middlesbrough. Tough gig for the Lions tonight, at home to Sheffield Red Stripe.

While I’m certainly not shedding any tears for Neil Harris, a manager QPR have got the sack twice before of course, it’s difficult not to think he had a bit of a point. The defeat at the weekend was Millwall’s first in ten, and came while star trio Romain Esse, Japhet Tanganga and Jake Cooper were all sidelined. Millwall are currently eleventh in the league, and since Harris took over again as the third manager of the season at a club that looked extremely likely to be relegated only two other Championship teams have won more points than the Lions. Having tried the progressive, young, academy coach route last year when trying to replace Gary Rowett and had it blow up in their face, it’s difficult to really see where they’re going to go from here – Harris would likely be a short odds favourite for the job himself had he not just left, and as we said when Mark Warburton and others left Loftus Road never bin off a bloke who would be his own best replacement. The next appointment will be fourth different permanent manager in 16 months after changing managers four times in the previous 16 years. Could our season preview prediction of Mick Beale the Millwall manager actually come to pass? Peaky blinders hat, hamming up the accent, insisting everybody call him ‘Mickey’, talk of ‘proper sort outs’ at half time… It’s just all too real. Mind you, having not worked in London for ten years I’m not sure he’d even be able to find the place these days.

Elsewhere on Tuesday the arrival of experienced Mike Phelan to assist Wazza down at Plymouth made strong immediate impact as they lost 2-1 at home to Swanselona. Luton came from a goal down to beat Stoke 2-1 with an Adebayo header in the very last minute – that latest autumn managerial change at Stoke seems to have had its usual effect. Scott Parker strong armed another tactically brilliant home 0-0 draw out of mighty Derby, whose own manager Paul Warne had spent the previous weekend describing his team as “League One with a bit of glitter on top” and entirely unequipped to cope with games away at parachute payment clubs. Nobody told Scott, presumably. Red Bull Leeds continued their monotonous procession back to the Prem with a 3-1 win over wildly inconsistent Middlesbrough. Speaking of teams you wouldn’t trust on your coupon – Bristol City looked all set to follow a 3-0 loss at Pompey with a 1-0 win at Sunderland, but for an injury time Patrick Roberts goal. The remarkable work of John Eustace continues, as Blackburn ascend into the play-off picture with a 1-0 at Sheff Wed.

Three fixtures tonight we’re yet to mention: good luck and God speed to all who sail in Cardiff v Preston; Ruben Selles starts life as Hull manager at home to Watford after moving from Reading; and West Brom v Coventry concludes the midweek list.

Referee: Just a second career Championship game for Durham’s Adam Herczeg who’s in his third year on the league list. He’s got New Jersey’s Alex Chilowicz as his fourth official, a former MLS referee and Broadway saxophonist – Polka King of the East Coast. Details.

Form

QPR: The victory against Norwich on Saturday broke QPR’s club record run of 11 matches (ten in the league) without a home league win to start the season. It’s only the fourth time Rangers have scored more than one in a game in 19 Championship matches, and it’s the first time they’ve scored more than two in a game since the 4-0 win against Leeds in April.

While it provided a very welcome break to trends around wins and goals scored, it continued several recent positive ones at the other end of the pitch. QPR are unbeaten in four, and haven’t conceded a goal in the last three. They’ve lost only two of the last nine and have won two of the last three having not won any of the prior 13. Paul Nardi and his defence went 14 games to start the season without a clean sheet but have now recorded five shut outs in the last eight games and haven’t conceded at all in 335 minutes of football since Tom Cannon scored for Stoke at Loftus Road. Five clean sheets in eight is as many as the R’s had managed in their prior 32 games. Liam Morrison quietly hasn’t lost in any of his six starts at centre back for the club.

Jack Supple tells us Rayan Kolli’s double on Saturday is the first by a teenager for QPR since Jimmy Smith scored two against Crystal Palace in 2006. Kolli has four goal involvements in his last six appearances for the club (two goals, and assists against Cardiff and West Brom). He is straight away the joint top scorer at Loftus Road this season along with Michy Frey and Own Goals.

Oxford: Team without an away win klaxon. Coping with injuries in a squad limited by its budget, and winning away games, has proved the undoing of other similar promoted League One clubs in recent years – Plymouth most recently, Rotherham constantly – and Oxford are certainly finding that this winter.

The U’s started the season very well, beating Norwich (2-0), Preston (3-1) and Stoke (1-0) in their first three home games. But it’s just one win in 13 games since, that a 1-0 at home to fellow strugglers Hull. They come into this game without a win in four matches in which they’ve conceded 11 times, and with five defeats from the last seven. The problems are particularly chronic away from home where they’ve drawn two and lost six of their games so far. Mark Harris, Spurs loanee Dane Scarlett and star boy Tyler Goodrham are all joint top scorers here with four each.

Aside from an infamous pre-season friendly under Gareth Ainsworth, Rangers haven’t faced Oxford competitively since August 2021 when Rob Dickie against his former club and an own goal secured passage from the League Cup second round with a 2-0 win. The last league meeting between the two was when Oxford last played in the second tier, March 1999, and a crucial 1-0 win for Gerry Francis’ struggling side secured by a late, scrambled, Rob Steiner goal. There have been 14 meetings between the sides at Loftus Road, with Oxford not winning here in 11 attempts going back to December 1969.

Prediction: Just three games to go before we hand out Prediction League prizes from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here - for leading the league at Christmas. We currently have a two-way tie at the top between QPRHibs and NoelMC. Last year’s joint winners SimplyNico and WestonsuperR say...

Nico’s Call: Saturday was a great day of football for Hoops fans and, statistically, our best since we did for Leeds at the end of last season. Unfortunately, it was tempered by our brilliant recruitment plan, which settled on us having only two senior centre forwards; this blew up when Celar broke, with Frey still sidelined. We were saved on Saturday by Rayan Kolli rising to the occasion (quite literally for his first goal). However, leaving aside, based on who you believe, whether Kolli is the Messiah or a very naughty boy, he is a 19-year-old kid and cannot be expected to carry the burden of our attack over the Christmas period (even with Frey due back at some point). Accordingly, we go into the Oxford game, with a much-improved league position and style of play, but lacking any recognised centre forward. Oxford started the season well, but their arc quickly blazed out and they are now immediately above us. My hope is that the current run of form continues, albeit with a scrappy win.

Weston’s Call “Can we build on the win we so desperately needed? Form probably suggests we can although always a dangerous assumption. If Celar is out for a while then a huge amount of pressure is now on Kolli, the fact we have to play a 19-year-old with so little experience only highlights the craziness of starting this season with so little experience but a chance for Kolli after a strong performance on Saturday. I fancy a tighter match than many expect and to scrap a win.”

Nico’s Prediction: QPR 1-0 Oxford. Scorer – Nicolas Madsen

WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 1-0 Oxford. Scorer – Rayan Kolli

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 0-1 Oxford. No scorer.

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Pictures - Ian Randall Photography

Phil_i_P_Daddy added 13:06 - Dec 11 We all know this one ends 0-1.
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062259 added 13:56 - Dec 11 Hopeful
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tsbains64 added 15:01 - Dec 11 Another 3-0
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TacticalR added 19:44 - Dec 11 Thanks for your preview. Ooo...chaps under fire in the trenches? Sent over the top into no-man's land? Yes, we had to consolidate before innovating. Actually, I don't think Cifuentes had much choice but to stick to defending, as we couldn't score a goal (until Celar and then Kolli delivered). You are right to warn about this game...we haven't done well against teams lower in the table, and we always struggle in any game that we are expected to win. Having said that I would like to think we could use some of the momentum we have picked up in the last few games.

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