| All this Budget Speculation 23:28 - Oct 18 with 9782 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
The plan seems to be to raise taxes like IHT and Capital Gains and maybe on Non-Doms etc. whilst changing the rules to borrow more.
There a realistic risk here, if the tax income does not increase as planned, the very rich can work their way around these increases, and if growth is slow then the cost of borrowing increases as bond rates will go up as confidence is lost in the money markets and we will have a slow burn Liz Truss effect.
With all that is happening in the World having some gold makes a lot of sense right now. |  |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 17:30 - Dec 13 with 962 views | SullutaCreturned |
| All this Budget Speculation on 11:17 - Nov 25 by Scotia |
But most of them are needed or invited or both.
Our services are stretched without a doubt, a greater demand on them with less investment will only end one way, that's as much to do with austerity as immigration.
We shouldn't grant visas to people we can't accomadate, |
We shouldn't grant visas but a lot of them are needed?
Out of interest, re the "last time I saw" how do you know who is an immigrant let alone legal or illegal? They don't have to be black or asian, there are white immigrants too.
The government can't even put a figure on how many illegal immigrants are here. Back in the far past being an island proyecyed us but today it's a curse, it's so easy to sneak into the UK by boat, criminals have a field day. |  | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 14:11 - Dec 18 with 854 views | controversial_jack |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:30 - Dec 13 by SullutaCreturned |
We shouldn't grant visas but a lot of them are needed?
Out of interest, re the "last time I saw" how do you know who is an immigrant let alone legal or illegal? They don't have to be black or asian, there are white immigrants too.
The government can't even put a figure on how many illegal immigrants are here. Back in the far past being an island proyecyed us but today it's a curse, it's so easy to sneak into the UK by boat, criminals have a field day. |
Of course they can't put a figure on illegals as they don't know where they are. They aren't exactly going to make themselves known to the authorities | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:19 - Dec 18 with 797 views | SullutaCreturned |
| All this Budget Speculation on 14:11 - Dec 18 by controversial_jack |
Of course they can't put a figure on illegals as they don't know where they are. They aren't exactly going to make themselves known to the authorities |
They have in the past put a figure on them but have been embarrased by it. They don't even guess anymore. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:34 - Dec 18 with 793 views | Scotia |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:30 - Dec 13 by SullutaCreturned |
We shouldn't grant visas but a lot of them are needed?
Out of interest, re the "last time I saw" how do you know who is an immigrant let alone legal or illegal? They don't have to be black or asian, there are white immigrants too.
The government can't even put a figure on how many illegal immigrants are here. Back in the far past being an island proyecyed us but today it's a curse, it's so easy to sneak into the UK by boat, criminals have a field day. |
No we should be able to accommodate people who the country needs, we can't due to a lack of investment.
I don't know what you mean by "last time I saw" edit. Apologies I get it now, my comment was a bit of a generalisation but it's from my experience of the people who work there and talking to them. Most can barely speak English, including simple phrases to work behind the bar [Post edited 18 Dec 20:47]
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| All this Budget Speculation on 20:38 - Dec 18 with 782 views | Scotia |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:22 - Dec 13 by AnotherJohn |
The problem with your argument is that the majority of immigrants do not make a net fiscal contribution due to low skills and wages. The huge influx of cheap labour has coincided with a fall in per capita productivity because companies have no incentive to seek profit through investing in new technology.. Recent years have seen high levels of public spending, high taxation levels and growing national debt. This means that public investment is constrained by tight public budgets, just as we are seeing now. In terms of the big picture. if living standards are not to fall then the national population must generate enough wealth to finance the necessary infrastructure and services. We can only finance these via borrowing for a limited period. It seems to me that we are already in a situation where living standards are falling. If immigration was the solution then we would be seeing an improvement after five years when total arrivals to the UK have exceeded the present population of Wales. To say we "need "this is to confuse gains via short-term fire-fighting with a steadily worsening long-term position that is unsustainable. [Post edited 13 Dec 20:27]
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Immigration is only the solution because too many people from Britain don't work. Plenty more traditionally British people do not make a fiscal contribution and are in fact a financial burden.
Sort that out and we can drastically reduce legal immigration very quickly. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 13:02 - Dec 19 with 678 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
10 year Gilt rates hit 4.5 percent. Things moving in the wrong direction. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 13:14 - Dec 19 with 660 views | AnotherJohn |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:38 - Dec 18 by Scotia |
Immigration is only the solution because too many people from Britain don't work. Plenty more traditionally British people do not make a fiscal contribution and are in fact a financial burden.
Sort that out and we can drastically reduce legal immigration very quickly. |
But it is not a sustainable solution. After over 3 million arrivals in 5 years all the indicators are going in the wrong direction. It is true that too many long-term residents do not work and that needs sorting out too. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 13:37 - Dec 19 with 641 views | Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
| All this Budget Speculation on 13:14 - Dec 19 by AnotherJohn |
But it is not a sustainable solution. After over 3 million arrivals in 5 years all the indicators are going in the wrong direction. It is true that too many long-term residents do not work and that needs sorting out too. |
Also means in another 30 or 40 years we’ll have an extra 3 million people retiring and needing care and the nhs and the whole cycle starts all over again. |  |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 14:05 - Dec 19 with 608 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 13:37 - Dec 19 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
Also means in another 30 or 40 years we’ll have an extra 3 million people retiring and needing care and the nhs and the whole cycle starts all over again. |
My Geography teacher 30 or 40 years ago asked us to look at the long term impacts of the post War baby boom. We concluded workforce shortages, pensions and healthcare demand. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 14:59 - Dec 19 with 567 views | Scotia |
| All this Budget Speculation on 13:37 - Dec 19 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
Also means in another 30 or 40 years we’ll have an extra 3 million people retiring and needing care and the nhs and the whole cycle starts all over again. |
Most of the Nigerian students I've spoken to are planning on going to study somewhere else once their visa runs out. Canada is usually mentioned. I don't think any have said they're planning on going back to Nigeria. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:00 - Dec 19 with 506 views | onehunglow |
| All this Budget Speculation on 14:59 - Dec 19 by Scotia |
Most of the Nigerian students I've spoken to are planning on going to study somewhere else once their visa runs out. Canada is usually mentioned. I don't think any have said they're planning on going back to Nigeria. |
Why would that be then
Nigeria ,a resource rich country, like most Frican countries . Corrupt as buggry | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 11:05 - Dec 20 with 400 views | AnotherJohn |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:00 - Dec 19 by onehunglow |
Why would that be then
Nigeria ,a resource rich country, like most Frican countries . Corrupt as buggry |
I don't know how general this pattern of not returning to Nigeria is. Certainly a high proportion of Nigerian doctors emigrate, but I don't know about PG students. Of the two I've had dealings with in recent years, one returned to work for the MoH, and one is working in London.
Edit: Scotia's post made me wonder what the most common origin countries for Swansea University postgraduate students are. He is right to pick Nigeria as a key group.
2022-23 (Latest HESA figures for all PG students, Swansea University)
Nigeria 970
India 925
China 370
Saudi 140
Total EU 550
Total PG 4330
https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students/where-from#non-uk
[Post edited 20 Dec 12:09]
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| All this Budget Speculation on 13:30 - Dec 20 with 383 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
30 year bond rate hits 5.16 percent, the highest for 26 years. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 19:08 - Dec 23 with 216 views | SullutaCreturned |
Somebody on here described Labour as economically illiterate, turns out they may have a point.
Rachel Reeves past life as an...ahem, economist is coming back to haunt her. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:10 - Dec 23 with 177 views | Whiterockin |
| All this Budget Speculation on 19:08 - Dec 23 by SullutaCreturned |
Somebody on here described Labour as economically illiterate, turns out they may have a point.
Rachel Reeves past life as an...ahem, economist is coming back to haunt her. |
This is what happens when you are economical with the truth on your CV. In the real world she would have been sacked by now. Completely out of touch and failing to deliver, you wouldn't last long in industry or the comercial world. |  | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 22:31 - Dec 23 with 103 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:10 - Dec 23 by Whiterockin |
This is what happens when you are economical with the truth on your CV. In the real world she would have been sacked by now. Completely out of touch and failing to deliver, you wouldn't last long in industry or the comercial world. |
I know someone I used to work with who lied on his CV and got a Board Director job in a FTSE 100 business then got sacked when the truth came out.
He lied about his role on a previous job and one of his fellow Directors had a friend in that organisation.
The Truth usually comes out. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 22:41 - Dec 23 with 85 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 19:08 - Dec 23 by SullutaCreturned |
Somebody on here described Labour as economically illiterate, turns out they may have a point.
Rachel Reeves past life as an...ahem, economist is coming back to haunt her. |
As I said in my OP it looked like there was quite a risk with the budget based on the rumours and speculation. The risk that the tax income would not come in and push up borrowing rates.
What has hit the fan is the triple hit on business and SMEs in particular; tax, regulation, increase in wages.
Borrowing rates are up, businesses are scaling back to accommodate the increase costs, inflation is ticking up to cover the increased costs and pay rises will reduce.
Increases in council tax, electricity and gas, insurance premiums and general inflation will reduce demand as disposable income get squeezed again.
If businesses adjust and Reeves does not see the expected increase in the tax take, borrowing rates will curtain expenditure on services and infrastructure spending - the original pre-budget identified risk
The triple hit on SMEs, who employ the most people in the UK is a big problem. This adds to the original risk. As the CBI have said we've got a situation that compounds the issue.
[Post edited 23 Dec 22:47]
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| All this Budget Speculation on 23:03 - Dec 23 with 57 views | Whiterockin |
| All this Budget Speculation on 22:41 - Dec 23 by JACKMANANDBOY |
As I said in my OP it looked like there was quite a risk with the budget based on the rumours and speculation. The risk that the tax income would not come in and push up borrowing rates.
What has hit the fan is the triple hit on business and SMEs in particular; tax, regulation, increase in wages.
Borrowing rates are up, businesses are scaling back to accommodate the increase costs, inflation is ticking up to cover the increased costs and pay rises will reduce.
Increases in council tax, electricity and gas, insurance premiums and general inflation will reduce demand as disposable income get squeezed again.
If businesses adjust and Reeves does not see the expected increase in the tax take, borrowing rates will curtain expenditure on services and infrastructure spending - the original pre-budget identified risk
The triple hit on SMEs, who employ the most people in the UK is a big problem. This adds to the original risk. As the CBI have said we've got a situation that compounds the issue.
[Post edited 23 Dec 22:47]
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Does she not understand that if business constricts the tax revenue shrinks. What's your next move Sherlock. Like it or not the financial elite need to be making money or the whole country grinds to a halt. The trick is get the balance right, not pamper to ideology. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 23:08 - Dec 23 with 41 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 23:03 - Dec 23 by Whiterockin |
Does she not understand that if business constricts the tax revenue shrinks. What's your next move Sherlock. Like it or not the financial elite need to be making money or the whole country grinds to a halt. The trick is get the balance right, not pamper to ideology. |
The first quarter next year will be difficult, if it gets too difficult we are in emergency budget territory. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 23:16 - Dec 23 with 27 views | Whiterockin |
| All this Budget Speculation on 23:08 - Dec 23 by JACKMANANDBOY |
The first quarter next year will be difficult, if it gets too difficult we are in emergency budget territory. |
Who are they going to squeeze next. They have done businesses and failed, hit pensioners and it's hitting their popularity, " working people" they wouldn't do that, they said they wouldn't. They may not last the 5 years. | | | |
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