| Farke’s off 19:52 - Nov 6 with 7427 views | Margam |
Another conundrum for Swansea ? |  | | |  |
| Farke’s off on 23:44 - Nov 8 with 1218 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 19:28 - Nov 8 by pencoedjack |
I find it quite bizarre anyone tries to justify themselves to DYSS.
Only appears when we lose, along with Kilkenny not worthy of any kind of response. |
He’s got a point though hasn’t he.
You can’t resign yourselves to relegation in November. Cardiff have lost 9 from 10. It’s like someone taking over Cardiff today and making them finish 19th. Would we be impressed? |  |
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| Farke’s off on 00:54 - Nov 9 with 1198 views | YouBackJastard |
| Farke’s off on 23:44 - Nov 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
He’s got a point though hasn’t he.
You can’t resign yourselves to relegation in November. Cardiff have lost 9 from 10. It’s like someone taking over Cardiff today and making them finish 19th. Would we be impressed? |
Cardiff's squad was predicted to push playoffs before the season started while MK had just been promoted from League Two | | | |
| Farke’s off on 03:16 - Nov 9 with 1183 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 00:54 - Nov 9 by YouBackJastard |
Cardiff's squad was predicted to push playoffs before the season started while MK had just been promoted from League Two |
Right, but they aren’t now, because they are rubbish.
MK Dons were promoted from league 2 presumably because they are a very good side that deserved it. There is not a massive gap between the bottom two divisions.
I can’t recall too many that get relegated after promotion to league 1, it’s not like promotion to the championship or the premier league. Those that get promoted generally are amongst the favourites for playoff the following year.
Those that get promoted from league 2 often reach the playoffs the next season, some even go up automatically.
8 seasons prior to the MK Dons finish. These are the two promoted teams and how they performed in the following season after promotion.
2012-13 - Swindon (6th), Shrewsbury (16th)
2013-14 - Rotherham (4th) , Gillingham (17th)
2014-15 - Chesterfield (6th) , Scunthorpe (16th)
2015-16 - Burton (2nd), Shrewsbury (20th)
2016-17 - Oxford (8th), Northampton (16th)
2017-18 - Portsmouth (7th), Plymouth (8th)
2018-19 - Luton (1st), Accrington (14th)
2019-20 - Lincoln (16th), MK Dons (19th)
The average finishing position of every promoted team over this period is 11th. | |
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| Farke’s off on 04:06 - Nov 9 with 1176 views | YouBackJastard |
| Farke’s off on 03:16 - Nov 9 by Dr_Parnassus |
Right, but they aren’t now, because they are rubbish.
MK Dons were promoted from league 2 presumably because they are a very good side that deserved it. There is not a massive gap between the bottom two divisions.
I can’t recall too many that get relegated after promotion to league 1, it’s not like promotion to the championship or the premier league. Those that get promoted generally are amongst the favourites for playoff the following year.
Those that get promoted from league 2 often reach the playoffs the next season, some even go up automatically.
8 seasons prior to the MK Dons finish. These are the two promoted teams and how they performed in the following season after promotion.
2012-13 - Swindon (6th), Shrewsbury (16th)
2013-14 - Rotherham (4th) , Gillingham (17th)
2014-15 - Chesterfield (6th) , Scunthorpe (16th)
2015-16 - Burton (2nd), Shrewsbury (20th)
2016-17 - Oxford (8th), Northampton (16th)
2017-18 - Portsmouth (7th), Plymouth (8th)
2018-19 - Luton (1st), Accrington (14th)
2019-20 - Lincoln (16th), MK Dons (19th)
The average finishing position of every promoted team over this period is 11th. |
Would you compare Newcastle or Wolves' promotion seasons to Norwich's recent promotions? Blackpool and Hull this year? You can't seriously think every promoted clubs' situation is comparable and work out an aggregate, silly to suggest and a nonsense argument.
MK were in a terrible shape and were on track for relegation when Martin took over. That's it. Arguing otherwise makes you look like like a bad faith actor. | | | |
| Farke’s off on 05:18 - Nov 9 with 1165 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 04:06 - Nov 9 by YouBackJastard |
Would you compare Newcastle or Wolves' promotion seasons to Norwich's recent promotions? Blackpool and Hull this year? You can't seriously think every promoted clubs' situation is comparable and work out an aggregate, silly to suggest and a nonsense argument.
MK were in a terrible shape and were on track for relegation when Martin took over. That's it. Arguing otherwise makes you look like like a bad faith actor. |
I would make the point that most teams being promoted to the Premier League have a tough task on their hands the following season. Comparing club for club is always going to see specific differences, but as a general rule its not an easy task.
As for promotion to League 1, most clubs do well. 1 team has been relegated out of the 20 promoted in the last 20 seasons, 25% reaching the play offs and 5% winning the league.
I don't see how MK Dons were notably worse off than the average team listed above. The average finishing position of those teams is 11th.
Anyone seriously suggesting that MK Dons had resigned themselves to relegation in November is just talking nonsense. | |
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| Farke’s off on 06:14 - Nov 9 with 1159 views | YouBackJastard |
| Farke’s off on 05:18 - Nov 9 by Dr_Parnassus |
I would make the point that most teams being promoted to the Premier League have a tough task on their hands the following season. Comparing club for club is always going to see specific differences, but as a general rule its not an easy task.
As for promotion to League 1, most clubs do well. 1 team has been relegated out of the 20 promoted in the last 20 seasons, 25% reaching the play offs and 5% winning the league.
I don't see how MK Dons were notably worse off than the average team listed above. The average finishing position of those teams is 11th.
Anyone seriously suggesting that MK Dons had resigned themselves to relegation in November is just talking nonsense. |
I've cited websites that understood the situation and gave statistics about how dreadful a level MK were at, you simply threw a conclusion together based on the form of other clubs. | | | |
| Farke’s off on 06:59 - Nov 9 with 1147 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 06:14 - Nov 9 by YouBackJastard |
I've cited websites that understood the situation and gave statistics about how dreadful a level MK were at, you simply threw a conclusion together based on the form of other clubs. |
Nothing to do with form. Form doesn't come into it. It's just happenstance that 1 win in 10 was how each started for their new managers, just a visual took to show the rut the squad was in.
You made the point that guiding Cardiff to 19th after 1 win in 10 was easier to do so than guiding MK Dons to 19th after 1 win in 10. You gave your reasoning that MK Dons were newly promoted, where as Cardiff are established.
I told you that being newly promoted to League 1 is generally a sign of a successful season ahead, rather than the opposite.
If you think it was easier to do for other reasons, then state them and I will take a look. But I am responding to the reasoning you initially gave, you are welcome to change that now if you don't believe that initial reasoning suits anymore.
Although you would have to go some to convince me they were in a worse predicament then, than Cardiff are now. [Post edited 9 Nov 2021 7:05]
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| Farke’s off on 10:21 - Nov 9 with 1068 views | onehunglow |
Buffoon eh.
Yep,all opinions accepted here..
Innit. | |
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| Farke’s off on 00:52 - Nov 10 with 1013 views | YouBackJastard |
| Farke’s off on 06:59 - Nov 9 by Dr_Parnassus |
Nothing to do with form. Form doesn't come into it. It's just happenstance that 1 win in 10 was how each started for their new managers, just a visual took to show the rut the squad was in.
You made the point that guiding Cardiff to 19th after 1 win in 10 was easier to do so than guiding MK Dons to 19th after 1 win in 10. You gave your reasoning that MK Dons were newly promoted, where as Cardiff are established.
I told you that being newly promoted to League 1 is generally a sign of a successful season ahead, rather than the opposite.
If you think it was easier to do for other reasons, then state them and I will take a look. But I am responding to the reasoning you initially gave, you are welcome to change that now if you don't believe that initial reasoning suits anymore.
Although you would have to go some to convince me they were in a worse predicament then, than Cardiff are now. [Post edited 9 Nov 2021 7:05]
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If you look at the respective squads of MK Dons 2018/19 season and Cardiff 2021/22 and can't see the gulf of quality, then that's on you. | | | |
| Farke’s off on 09:47 - Nov 10 with 892 views | Catullus |
I'm not a big fan of averages, whatever we are debating. it's rare that any average is well represented in reality, for example, how many clubs finished exactly 11th? The average position also hides the lower finishing positions. maybe half of those clubs finished below 11th and that is their reality.
I agree (again, what's going on?) with Dr P about the finishing 19th issue though. I tend to disagree about the quality in Cardiff's squad. The bookies odds and pundits opinions were based on last seasons performance by that squad, it hardly changed and they started the season reasonably well, then they hit a shocking patch and they might not recover. I suppose you could argue Cardiff massively overperformed last season. | |
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| Farke’s off on 10:05 - Nov 10 with 876 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| Farke’s off on 07:37 - Nov 10 by YouBackJastard |
Obviously I was speaking in relative terms when comparing the squads? Cardiff do not have a 'bottom five or six squad' they were expected to push playoffs this year with top ten minimum. Just because the league table puts them as a lower relegation battling side does not mean that they have terrible quality. Their captain was talking about pushing automatics before the season started!
Once again I refuse to debate anyone who simply looks at a league table and makes conclusive judgements off of it |
Put him on ignore. He’ll drain the life out of you otherwise with his “Mr Logic” (from Viz) statistical claptrap. |  |
| Each time I go to Bedd - au........................ |
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| Farke’s off on 10:07 - Nov 10 with 871 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 10:05 - Nov 10 by Brynmill_Jack |
Put him on ignore. He’ll drain the life out of you otherwise with his “Mr Logic” (from Viz) statistical claptrap. |
Yep anyone who doesn't like common sense I would advise to do that.
I have already avoided hundreds of nonsensical discussions with you since you decided to do that (yet talk about me constantly).
Highly recommended. | |
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| Farke’s off on 10:11 - Nov 10 with 861 views | onehunglow |
| Farke’s off on 10:07 - Nov 10 by Dr_Parnassus |
Yep anyone who doesn't like common sense I would advise to do that.
I have already avoided hundreds of nonsensical discussions with you since you decided to do that (yet talk about me constantly).
Highly recommended. |
Its not so much common sense Dr P but what is actually the truth | |
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| Farke’s off on 10:16 - Nov 10 with 857 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 09:47 - Nov 10 by Catullus |
I'm not a big fan of averages, whatever we are debating. it's rare that any average is well represented in reality, for example, how many clubs finished exactly 11th? The average position also hides the lower finishing positions. maybe half of those clubs finished below 11th and that is their reality.
I agree (again, what's going on?) with Dr P about the finishing 19th issue though. I tend to disagree about the quality in Cardiff's squad. The bookies odds and pundits opinions were based on last seasons performance by that squad, it hardly changed and they started the season reasonably well, then they hit a shocking patch and they might not recover. I suppose you could argue Cardiff massively overperformed last season. |
They don't have to finish exactly 11th, that is what an average is.
1 in 20 got relegated, 1 in 20 won the league, 6 in 20 made the play offs, the rest finished in-between. That trend suggests the leap from league 2 to league 1 is not that great. It suggests the average club coming up can expect to finish relatively comfortably.
Do that for Championship to Premier League and the average finishing position will probably be somewhere around 18th meaning the average club that gets promoted can expect a tough time. Big spenders will be an exception to that rule.
So anyone using the argument that they were newly promoted to league 1 and thus consigned to relegation fodder is not speaking accurately.
Cardiff lost Hoilett, Glatzel, Murphy, Bennett, Whyte and Tomlin. Almost 100 starts between them all. They have replaced them with nobody. James Collins is the only one incoming wasn't he? Hence why they are relying on youth products.
Terrible squad, as they are showing. Their fans will tell you the same. [Post edited 10 Nov 2021 10:25]
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| Farke’s off on 15:24 - Nov 10 with 756 views | ReslovenSwan1 |
Farke has almost fallen into Cardiff city's lap. Three seasons in the Champonship two promotions one bedding in season. Broyught through and developed youth and can insitgte a passing possession based game plan. Just what the doctor ordered.
Develop the kids and bring in three or four earnest and skillfull Germans. Bingo.
Wages could be an issue of course. If I was Dalman I would find a way to bring in Farke without delay. Fate has given them the path to salavation. The good news is that they will almost certainly look a gift horse in them mouth . |  |
| Wise sage since Toshack era |
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| Farke’s off on 16:08 - Nov 10 with 749 views | Catullus |
| Farke’s off on 10:16 - Nov 10 by Dr_Parnassus |
They don't have to finish exactly 11th, that is what an average is.
1 in 20 got relegated, 1 in 20 won the league, 6 in 20 made the play offs, the rest finished in-between. That trend suggests the leap from league 2 to league 1 is not that great. It suggests the average club coming up can expect to finish relatively comfortably.
Do that for Championship to Premier League and the average finishing position will probably be somewhere around 18th meaning the average club that gets promoted can expect a tough time. Big spenders will be an exception to that rule.
So anyone using the argument that they were newly promoted to league 1 and thus consigned to relegation fodder is not speaking accurately.
Cardiff lost Hoilett, Glatzel, Murphy, Bennett, Whyte and Tomlin. Almost 100 starts between them all. They have replaced them with nobody. James Collins is the only one incoming wasn't he? Hence why they are relying on youth products.
Terrible squad, as they are showing. Their fans will tell you the same. [Post edited 10 Nov 2021 10:25]
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That is why the average is pointless, they didn't and couldn't all finish 11th. Hardly anything is ever "the average" its a statistical waste of a point. How many clubs are actually average? Some are very good, most are not, several are usually rubbish, there is a wide spread of average from 7th down as far as the relegation zone where the worst 3 reside.
I still don't think their squad is that weak, they have several very good U23's. Not so long back we were very grateful when a few of ours made the grade.
Poor directorship and management can do for a club even if it's squad should be doing better. | |
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| Farke’s off on 17:37 - Nov 10 with 728 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 16:08 - Nov 10 by Catullus |
That is why the average is pointless, they didn't and couldn't all finish 11th. Hardly anything is ever "the average" its a statistical waste of a point. How many clubs are actually average? Some are very good, most are not, several are usually rubbish, there is a wide spread of average from 7th down as far as the relegation zone where the worst 3 reside.
I still don't think their squad is that weak, they have several very good U23's. Not so long back we were very grateful when a few of ours made the grade.
Poor directorship and management can do for a club even if it's squad should be doing better. |
It’s not pointless at all. You are thinking average means something it doesn’t, an average shows a trend not an exact predicted finish. You are assuming it’s design and implementation for this point is for a purpose that does not exist.
I am showing the ease of promotion to league 1, not predicting teams will finish in a certain exact place. The average finish of the last 20 promoted teams absolutely does that. If it was not the case then the average finish would be far lower like it is in other more demanding leagues.
For example if the average finishing position of a promoted Premier League team is 18th, that means the average promoted team face an uphill struggle to survive. If it’s 11th that suggests that the majority of teams fare very well. Neither is a prediction that the team will finish exactly 18th or 11th, only that as an average team under average circumstances, they can expect to fare pretty well.
We can’t be using bookies odds to make a point then reject the point when you realise it’s similar for the other team too. You also can’t use the excuse they have the same team when they don’t and have lost a fair few players. You will have to decide what reasoning you are basing your view off (other than trying to make a point against me yet again) and then be consistent with that, even if it means you have to backtrack or concede when the other person uses that same reasoning to nullify it.
Cardiff still have a poor squad, the bookies odds were still similar for both MK and Cardiff, taking someone from 21st to 19th in 7 months still isn’t that impressive.
Over to you. [Post edited 10 Nov 2021 17:43]
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| Farke’s off on 23:39 - Nov 10 with 663 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 21:53 - Nov 10 by YouBackJastard |
"I assume that's why you dumped the last username for getting into silly squabbles where you had very little in your corner. My advice is if you wanted to start fresh, then create new habits, otherwise it will end the same."
Excuse me? |
You are excused. | |
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| Farke’s off on 00:21 - Nov 11 with 655 views | YouBackJastard |
| Farke’s off on 23:39 - Nov 10 by Dr_Parnassus |
You are excused. |
You want to explain what you're on about instead of talking in circles? This is not the first time you've spoken like this, who exactly do you think I am? | | | |
| Farke’s off on 00:29 - Nov 11 with 642 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Farke’s off on 00:21 - Nov 11 by YouBackJastard |
You want to explain what you're on about instead of talking in circles? This is not the first time you've spoken like this, who exactly do you think I am? |
Riddles?
I’ve made it perfectly clear that I don’t believe you are a new poster like you claim, that has only been on this forum for a week and a half, yet knows everyone, knows historical views and posts constantly at all hours of the day and night and is generally hostile to the general user.
6 days after you started posting you said “so many names I am seeing in this thread that I didn’t see in our winning period”…. Well aye, your moniker didn’t exist in our winning period.
Please spare me the usual “I read the site for months without posting, now I suddenly post every day at all hours of the day and night”.
That hardly describes the natural traits of a new poster. Not buying it for a single second I’m afraid. You may fool others but you won’t fool me. [Post edited 11 Nov 2021 0:41]
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