Derby faces a very tough trip to Millwall today with both teams needing a vital three points for very different reasons.

Millwall have been thrown a life line in their fight for survival with Rotherham being handed a three point deduction for ironically fielding a Derby player a day after his loan had expired.

A win for Derby would see them virtually guarantee a play off spot after the push for automatic promotion has gone sour over the past two months.

Poor defending, injuries to main players and the Newcastle speculation (bored with it now), all combining together to culminate in a bad run of form and ultimately poor results.

If Millwall were not going to motivated enough by the threat of relegation already, then the news that broke Friday lunch time about the three points being taken off Rotherham will give them added incentive.

Firstly Derby needs to decide who will partner Keogh at the centre back. Reports suggest this will be Forsyth, despite his forward pass completion rate being so poor. People will say it's defending that matters, but the amount of times his forward passes go to the opposition is beyond me. What's the point in winning the ball if you then give it the opposition back? For that reason Albentosa must also be in the reckoning.

Warnock and Shotton should take up the left and right full back roles with Hendrick and Hughes taking two of the midfield spots, after Hughes has hopefully shaken off an ankle knock and slight groin strain.

Ince will definitely start and then it is anyone's guess between Lingard, Dawkins, Russell and Hanson as to who will start for the other two midfield spots. This may depend on a 4-3-2-1 or 4-2-3-1 formation.

Bent will start up front, but the coaching staff will have to decide on formation and who exactly plays where. I just hope we are not too lightweight in midfield. Chris Martin may make the bench, but is likely to be saved for Reading, if needed and hopefully the play offs.

Millwall manager Neil Harris will be without midfield duo Ed Upson as he is suspended and Shaun Williams who is injured. Look out for Woolford creating chances from midfield and Abdou battling to win the ball. Veteran Fuller should start up front but Millwall have been struggling to score goals.

The Lions away form is not great but they have being doing better at home recently by beating Wigan and Charlton. In between these wins they lost at home to Watford 2-0.

It is likely to be the usual hostile atmosphere in the opening exchanges at The New Den and Derby may need to weather an early storm.

Slightly bored of saying it, but the key to Derby for the past 2 to 3 months has been the defence.

If games such as Huddersfield, Watford, Wolves, Birmingham and Brighton are looked at, then we can see that for long periods Derby were the better team and created many chances. However it has been the individual errors and thus goals conceded that have caused the most concern and lost Derby so many vital points. The constant chopping and changing of the defence will also not have helped.

Until Derby gets a settled defence or Thorne returns I'm afraid the defensive frailties will probably continue.

Therefore I am going to go for a score draw on this occasion and Derby will probably just scrape over the play off line.

League Position / Form / Stats:

Millwall: 22nd — W, L, W, D, L

As it stood earlier in the week, if Millwall had lost to the Rams they would have been relegated as they sat 4 points behind Rotherham in 21st place. With Rotherham being penalised 3 points yesterday, now they only sit 1 point from safety.

Only Blackpool with 34 goals for the season - have put less in the net than Millwall who have only managed 37. The Lions have also conceded 69 goals which is the 4th worst in the Championship.

Derby: 5th - L, D, W, D, W

The Rams are undefeated in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws).

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