| The mythical 40 points 14:03 - Feb 7 with 1920 views | kingo |
I can't see any of the current botton 5 getting near to 40 points. For Wigan it would mean getting 24 points in 14 matches when they have only got 16 in 24 so far. Similar for Bolton and Blackburn, a little easier for us and Wolves but not realistic. I can't see Wigan getting more than 25-30 points (an improvement on their form so far) Wolves will get around 31-33 and Bolton about 33-35. So realisticall if we can get 14-15 points we should be ok, 40 points will be mid table. |  |
| RIP: Sniffer, Doug and Pat |
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| The mythical 40 points on 14:05 - Feb 7 with 1532 views | blacky200 |
Like you I reckon 35-36 will see us clear of relegation. Fingers crossed that none below us go on a run. |  | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 14:24 - Feb 7 with 1496 views | Snipper |
| The mythical 40 points on 14:05 - Feb 7 by blacky200 |
Like you I reckon 35-36 will see us clear of relegation. Fingers crossed that none below us go on a run. |
What have the bottom 5 had after the same amount of games in previous seasons?
Saturday was so important. A win would have saw a 6 point gap.
Thank you Mr Cisse. |  | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 14:37 - Feb 7 with 1465 views | QPR_ARG |
I think here are a few keys to understand that Kingo may be right and that 40 points may not be necessary to avoid relegation this term.
1. Last season, United won the league with 23 wins. Chelsea and City had 21. This season? City are already on 18 wins. United have 17 and Spurs 15. Which means they need 5, 4 and 6 wins respectively to finish more or less leveled on points with the top three from last season. In my opinion, with 14 matches to go, the three of them will easily surpass that and therefore by the end of the years, those extra points they get will for sure mean that the bottom three (or 5 or 6 for that matter) will have less points than the lot from last season. If not...where are those points coming from, then?
2. Which leads to this second point. The upper-mid-table teams are also on pace to better what they did last season. Take Sunderland, currently in 8th position. They are already on 33 points. The team that finished 8th last season? Fulham on 49 points. That means...with one point per game from now and until the end of the season, Sunderland will be close to those 49 points. But is it impossible to think they will get a lot more than just 1 point per game on average?
3. I know it's early days but the gap between 8th and 17th was of 9 points last season (Fulham 49; Wolves 40). Sunderland are now 12 points ahead of the team in 17th (Wolves) and I wouldn't bet against that gap reducing a lot from here till the end of the season.
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| The mythical 40 points on 14:52 - Feb 7 with 1436 views | notdolly |
Don't forget that most of the bottom 5 will think they have underperformed in the first part of the season and regression to the mean will likely see them pick up more points in the latter half of the season.
Additionally, when other teams have nothing to play for, this often leads to relegation-threatened teams picking up extra points in the run-in.
Having said that, looking at the stats for the last 5 years it does appear to be a relatively low-scoring bottom 5 for this stage of the season but there's not much in it:
11-12 21, 21, 20, 18, 16
10-11 25, 23, 22, 21, 21
09-10 21, 21, 20, 20, 15
08-09 24, 23, 23, 22, 22
07-08 22, 20, 20, 16, 8
The bottom placed team in 07-08 only scored 3 more points all season so at least we're already 10 points clear of their infamous record (extra points for first to name the team). |  | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 14:56 - Feb 7 with 1429 views | N12Hoop |
| The mythical 40 points on 14:37 - Feb 7 by QPR_ARG |
I think here are a few keys to understand that Kingo may be right and that 40 points may not be necessary to avoid relegation this term.
1. Last season, United won the league with 23 wins. Chelsea and City had 21. This season? City are already on 18 wins. United have 17 and Spurs 15. Which means they need 5, 4 and 6 wins respectively to finish more or less leveled on points with the top three from last season. In my opinion, with 14 matches to go, the three of them will easily surpass that and therefore by the end of the years, those extra points they get will for sure mean that the bottom three (or 5 or 6 for that matter) will have less points than the lot from last season. If not...where are those points coming from, then?
2. Which leads to this second point. The upper-mid-table teams are also on pace to better what they did last season. Take Sunderland, currently in 8th position. They are already on 33 points. The team that finished 8th last season? Fulham on 49 points. That means...with one point per game from now and until the end of the season, Sunderland will be close to those 49 points. But is it impossible to think they will get a lot more than just 1 point per game on average?
3. I know it's early days but the gap between 8th and 17th was of 9 points last season (Fulham 49; Wolves 40). Sunderland are now 12 points ahead of the team in 17th (Wolves) and I wouldn't bet against that gap reducing a lot from here till the end of the season.
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Excellent stats, cheers. But, aren't points 1 and 3 inconsistent, ie for the gap to close then the bottom teams must be picking up points off the higher teams?. |  |
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| The mythical 40 points on 15:42 - Feb 7 with 1370 views | QPR_ARG |
| The mythical 40 points on 14:56 - Feb 7 by N12Hoop |
Excellent stats, cheers. But, aren't points 1 and 3 inconsistent, ie for the gap to close then the bottom teams must be picking up points off the higher teams?. |
What I meant was that both groups (top 3-6) and upper-mid-table teams could be showing a tendency this season to take more points off the bottom six-eight teams.
Last season (final standings): United had a 31-point gap with Fulham (in 8th).
This season (with a lot of football to be played, granted), the gap between 1st and 8th is of 24 points.
I know things can change, but 7 points of difference for that gap from last season to the current one, seems to be a lot. If they keep that up (and City-United-Spurs continue on pace to finish with more wins than the top 3 from last season), it's only going to reflect at the bottom of the table, where teams will get less points than last season.
Hope I managed to explain what I'm trying to say. Not easy! | | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 15:49 - Feb 7 with 1349 views | bosh67 |
6 wins and a draw see us safe, out of 14 games. |  |
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| The mythical 40 points on 15:52 - Feb 7 with 1338 views | coolranger |
| The mythical 40 points on 15:42 - Feb 7 by QPR_ARG |
What I meant was that both groups (top 3-6) and upper-mid-table teams could be showing a tendency this season to take more points off the bottom six-eight teams.
Last season (final standings): United had a 31-point gap with Fulham (in 8th).
This season (with a lot of football to be played, granted), the gap between 1st and 8th is of 24 points.
I know things can change, but 7 points of difference for that gap from last season to the current one, seems to be a lot. If they keep that up (and City-United-Spurs continue on pace to finish with more wins than the top 3 from last season), it's only going to reflect at the bottom of the table, where teams will get less points than last season.
Hope I managed to explain what I'm trying to say. Not easy! |
All interesting guys and thanks for the stats and time. My gut feel now is that 38 points may do the trick - just a point a game over the season offering survival, which is mad when you think about it but could be reality this season.
On that basis we need 17 points from 14 games with about half of those ideally from the next four matches. | | | |
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| The mythical 40 points on 15:56 - Feb 7 with 1325 views | N12Hoop |
| The mythical 40 points on 15:42 - Feb 7 by QPR_ARG |
What I meant was that both groups (top 3-6) and upper-mid-table teams could be showing a tendency this season to take more points off the bottom six-eight teams.
Last season (final standings): United had a 31-point gap with Fulham (in 8th).
This season (with a lot of football to be played, granted), the gap between 1st and 8th is of 24 points.
I know things can change, but 7 points of difference for that gap from last season to the current one, seems to be a lot. If they keep that up (and City-United-Spurs continue on pace to finish with more wins than the top 3 from last season), it's only going to reflect at the bottom of the table, where teams will get less points than last season.
Hope I managed to explain what I'm trying to say. Not easy! |
Think I see where you're coming from. Ultimately, our hope this season is that the Premiership quality has deteriorated or gap between the top and bottom is growing so that there are a few pretty poor teams that lose most games. After seeing Wigan a couple of weeks back, I cannot see how they are going to avoid being in the bottom 2. You would hope that morale at Blackburn is so low that they just aren't capable of pulling out of their position and that the Venky's don't change the manager. Wolves also looked pretty poor but last year the same team had some storming performances so who knows with them. The fact is anything can happen over 90 mins, we just have to hope that we can avoid imploding as we did last week and against Norwich. On a different note, I wasn't impressed with Sunderland at all when we lost to them. I didn't think there was much between us and we've a much better team now than we did then. And they're 8th! | |
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| The mythical 40 points on 16:18 - Feb 7 with 1296 views | coolranger |
| The mythical 40 points on 15:56 - Feb 7 by N12Hoop |
Think I see where you're coming from. Ultimately, our hope this season is that the Premiership quality has deteriorated or gap between the top and bottom is growing so that there are a few pretty poor teams that lose most games. After seeing Wigan a couple of weeks back, I cannot see how they are going to avoid being in the bottom 2. You would hope that morale at Blackburn is so low that they just aren't capable of pulling out of their position and that the Venky's don't change the manager. Wolves also looked pretty poor but last year the same team had some storming performances so who knows with them. The fact is anything can happen over 90 mins, we just have to hope that we can avoid imploding as we did last week and against Norwich. On a different note, I wasn't impressed with Sunderland at all when we lost to them. I didn't think there was much between us and we've a much better team now than we did then. And they're 8th! |
It's actually a very strange league. At the top end you have six very strong clubs where you really don't expect much when playing them.
BUT, below that group it changes very quickly. I would argue that many of the current mid-table sides are not great shakes. As for those down with us, well.....they're pretty desperate really.
The point is that if a club gets its act together it is very possible to settle into that middle group - this is precisely why Norwich and Swansea have done pretty well, partly due to the failings of others. If Rangers can get through this season as a Prem side then I really think we could kick start an exciting new phase in the club's history.
if we can't? Then I simply hope we do a West Brom and come back next year better prepared for another crack at it. | | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 16:38 - Feb 7 with 1256 views | loftboy |
| The mythical 40 points on 14:52 - Feb 7 by notdolly |
Don't forget that most of the bottom 5 will think they have underperformed in the first part of the season and regression to the mean will likely see them pick up more points in the latter half of the season.
Additionally, when other teams have nothing to play for, this often leads to relegation-threatened teams picking up extra points in the run-in.
Having said that, looking at the stats for the last 5 years it does appear to be a relatively low-scoring bottom 5 for this stage of the season but there's not much in it:
11-12 21, 21, 20, 18, 16
10-11 25, 23, 22, 21, 21
09-10 21, 21, 20, 20, 15
08-09 24, 23, 23, 22, 22
07-08 22, 20, 20, 16, 8
The bottom placed team in 07-08 only scored 3 more points all season so at least we're already 10 points clear of their infamous record (extra points for first to name the team). |
Seeing as no one else has answered....... Derby |  |
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| The mythical 40 points on 17:02 - Feb 7 with 1229 views | Lewes_r |
37 will do it
wigan wont get above 25 points |  |
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| The mythical 40 points on 17:07 - Feb 7 with 1224 views | fakekerby |
40 points is, was and always will be nonsense.
The fact is we need 1 point more than the three dross teams below us. | | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 17:27 - Feb 7 with 1202 views | DylanP |
I'm no stats whizz, but I reckon that if we win our next 14 game son the trot, then we will probably have enough for safety. |  |
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| The mythical 40 points on 23:58 - Feb 7 with 1094 views | qprmick |
| The mythical 40 points on 17:27 - Feb 7 by DylanP |
I'm no stats whizz, but I reckon that if we win our next 14 game son the trot, then we will probably have enough for safety. |
.....and a place in Europe. | |
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| The mythical 40 points on 08:46 - Feb 8 with 1041 views | YorkRanger |
| The mythical 40 points on 17:02 - Feb 7 by Lewes_r |
37 will do it
wigan wont get above 25 points |
To be honest it's not Wigan I'm worried about. I think they will go down - the key is keeping our noses in front of the other 3 and that process continues on Saturday.
I think we need at least 8 points from our next 4 games. |  | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 08:53 - Feb 8 with 1034 views | MelakaRanger |
Agree on the 8 points minimum from the next 4 games but we must get 3 of those against Blackburn. No ifs or buts. This is our last chance to stop the rot. Lose to Blackburn and we are sunk |  | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 09:05 - Feb 8 with 1015 views | Lewes_r |
| The mythical 40 points on 08:53 - Feb 8 by MelakaRanger |
Agree on the 8 points minimum from the next 4 games but we must get 3 of those against Blackburn. No ifs or buts. This is our last chance to stop the rot. Lose to Blackburn and we are sunk |
A draw would not be a complete disaster | |
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| The mythical 40 points on 09:10 - Feb 8 with 1009 views | YorkRanger |
| The mythical 40 points on 09:05 - Feb 8 by Lewes_r |
A draw would not be a complete disaster |
I agree a draw would not be the end of the world but with Wolves and Bolton both having winnable games we would have to be prepared that could us back in the bottom 3. A defeat would be really bad news - It wouldn't relegate us but it will make things that little bit more difficult | | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 09:23 - Feb 8 with 992 views | westolian |
Isn't it all so exciting ! |  |
| I've found a team sheet for the weekend - anyone interested ? |
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| The mythical 40 points on 09:24 - Feb 8 with 988 views | queensparker |
A win on Saturday will make the table look a lot lot more encouraging, especially if other results go our way. And if we are playing Zamora and Tarbs up front I'm feeling confident...
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| The mythical 40 points on 09:26 - Feb 8 with 986 views | westolian |
| The mythical 40 points on 09:24 - Feb 8 by queensparker |
A win on Saturday will make the table look a lot lot more encouraging, especially if other results go our way. And if we are playing Zamora and Tarbs up front I'm feeling confident...
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I think that with the signings MH has made and the way he sets them up, we should concede less and score more than before the window.
Assuming we can play with 11 - i'm very confident of securing 16th !! | |
| I've found a team sheet for the weekend - anyone interested ? |
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| The mythical 40 points on 09:29 - Feb 8 with 983 views | adhoc_qpr |
A draw woudn't be a disaster but a loss and a potential slide into the relegation zone would be mentally damaging.
We need a positive result and a performance against Blackburn, otherwise we'll have no momentum or confidence going into the next 3 crucial games.
Injuries throughout the spine of the team are killing us - Macheda the only fully fit available striker, no back up for the dreaded Barton/Derry midfield combo, Fitz Hall likely starting in defence and Paddy Kenny clearly not 100% (think how many points he saved us last season compared to this...). | | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 09:55 - Feb 8 with 958 views | YorkRanger |
| The mythical 40 points on 09:29 - Feb 8 by adhoc_qpr |
A draw woudn't be a disaster but a loss and a potential slide into the relegation zone would be mentally damaging.
We need a positive result and a performance against Blackburn, otherwise we'll have no momentum or confidence going into the next 3 crucial games.
Injuries throughout the spine of the team are killing us - Macheda the only fully fit available striker, no back up for the dreaded Barton/Derry midfield combo, Fitz Hall likely starting in defence and Paddy Kenny clearly not 100% (think how many points he saved us last season compared to this...). |
A draw could still mean sliding into the bottom 3 but it would still keep Blackburn at arms length. | | | |
| The mythical 40 points on 10:08 - Feb 8 with 946 views | N12Hoop |
THink how boring it would be if all we had to discuss was whether we were likely to finish 10th or 14th or something similar, eg Villa. That would never do! | |
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