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Some people have commented that they find this info useful and some would prefer it didn't clog up the main Corona thread. For those reasons I've decided to do a seperate thread which can happily be ignored by the main Corona thread contributers and read only by the stat nerds.
Can I ask that the general discussion about C-19 be kept in the Corona thread and leave this one just for updates and stats. Cheers.
Todays update
On the 16th April The USA or in particular New York decided to include non hospital deaths in their totals. They included an additional 3,778 deaths that went back to 11 March and added them to the April 14ths total so they went a little under the radar. New York has now made it mandatory to wear face masks so it will be interesting to see how their case and deaths numbers change in the coming weeks compared to other US states who don't follow the same guidelines.
France continues to do things slightly differently as they reported 17,164 new cases yesterday compared to 4,560 the day before. It's not the first time they have reported a large number of new cases, on the 3rd April they reported 23,060 compared to 2,116 the previous day and 7,788 the following day.
It's widely accepted now that Cases are an almost worthless stat as it depends on how many tests a country does. Deaths are also becoming unreliable as some countries include non hospital deaths and others don't. This article says that some of the unreported care home deaths are outnumbering the reported ones. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-
Based on the total reported deaths for the last 7 days, the UK is continuing to look like the sick man of Europe.
USA - 17905 (inc 3778 deaths in New York care homes) UK - 5751 France - 5710 (inc care home deaths) Italy - 3891 Spain - 3868 Belgium - 2334 Germany - 1445
Looking back at the timelines, the UK was 16 days behind Italy on 28th March, was 15 days behind on the 2nd April and was 14 days behind on the 12th April where it remains today. The UK was 9 days behind Spain on 30th March, it increased to nearly 10 days but is now close to 9 days again.
Thank you again Gary. Much appreciate the time and effort put in to collating the information and analyzing and explaining it so clearly....
I hadn't actually considered the comparison between our approach and that of Sweden's because it seems to me that the MSM present the response as being very different, whereas in reality we are not that far apart....
For people who like global monitors, this is a way of tracking activity out of lockdown around the world. Amazing to think how quickly this data has emerged. https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/london-traffic The 2019 comparisons are pretty amazing too. London traffic v Cork and Dublin!
The UK has started it's 'return to work' phase and removed the restrictions on how long you can be out of the house so for a lot of people, the lockdown is over. It might be worth looking back at China to see when they decided it was safe to allow those that had been cleared (by an app) to return to normal daily life. Here are the daily case numbers for the month prior to China ending the lockdown and the UK lifting a lot of restrictions:
China has the means to track and trace outbreaks and forcibly quarantine individuals away from their families. The UK has very little in place to cope with an increase in cases (insufficient testing, tracing, PPE or quarantine facilities). The UK has to come out of lockdown at some point and the longer it takes the worse it will be, financially and mentally. Sending people back to work now when the disease is still out of control will definitely cause a 2nd spike with a very real chance that another lockdown will be required. I guess this is the gamble the government are prepared to take to limit the damage to the economy.
Just as a reminder, China shut down Hubei province (which has a population of 58.5m, so slightly less than Italy) on January 23rd when they had a total of 571 cases. The UK relaxed restrictions on Wednesday when it had an average of 3776 cases a day for the last week.
On to the comparison charts. The total deaths per country are now:
Deaths per 10m population for the last 7 days (to see whose curve is going up and whose curve is going down)
Sweden.........484 (from 450, from 559, from 681) UK.................441 (from 556, from 734, from 860) Belgium.........421 (from 708, from 952, from 1409) USA...............301 (from 394, from 411,from 463) Spain.............267 (from 326, from 510, from 647) Italy...............233 (from 329, from 400, from 559) France...........220 (from 247, from 386, from 603) Germany.........64 (from 92, from 125, from 181)
So Belgium have been replaced by Sweden which is not that surprising as they aren't in a lockdown and all the rest are. The fact that Sweden's deaths for the previous weeks have been falling is a testament to the people of Sweden following their governments guidelines. Without enforcing restrictions it's likely Sweden's death rate will continue at similar numbers until herd immunity is achieved.
And to finish, how are Sweden doing compared to their neighbours in deaths per 1m/pop
Sweden - 361 (from 301) Denmark - 93 (from 89) Finland - 52 (from 46) Norway - 43 (from 40)
So it's definitely hurting them but when they reach herd immunity their numbers will fall back and the rest will catch them up, unless there's a vaccine produced before that happens.
The UK has started it's 'return to work' phase and removed the restrictions on how long you can be out of the house so for a lot of people, the lockdown is over. It might be worth looking back at China to see when they decided it was safe to allow those that had been cleared (by an app) to return to normal daily life. Here are the daily case numbers for the month prior to China ending the lockdown and the UK lifting a lot of restrictions:
China has the means to track and trace outbreaks and forcibly quarantine individuals away from their families. The UK has very little in place to cope with an increase in cases (insufficient testing, tracing, PPE or quarantine facilities). The UK has to come out of lockdown at some point and the longer it takes the worse it will be, financially and mentally. Sending people back to work now when the disease is still out of control will definitely cause a 2nd spike with a very real chance that another lockdown will be required. I guess this is the gamble the government are prepared to take to limit the damage to the economy.
Just as a reminder, China shut down Hubei province (which has a population of 58.5m, so slightly less than Italy) on January 23rd when they had a total of 571 cases. The UK relaxed restrictions on Wednesday when it had an average of 3776 cases a day for the last week.
On to the comparison charts. The total deaths per country are now:
Deaths per 10m population for the last 7 days (to see whose curve is going up and whose curve is going down)
Sweden.........484 (from 450, from 559, from 681) UK.................441 (from 556, from 734, from 860) Belgium.........421 (from 708, from 952, from 1409) USA...............301 (from 394, from 411,from 463) Spain.............267 (from 326, from 510, from 647) Italy...............233 (from 329, from 400, from 559) France...........220 (from 247, from 386, from 603) Germany.........64 (from 92, from 125, from 181)
So Belgium have been replaced by Sweden which is not that surprising as they aren't in a lockdown and all the rest are. The fact that Sweden's deaths for the previous weeks have been falling is a testament to the people of Sweden following their governments guidelines. Without enforcing restrictions it's likely Sweden's death rate will continue at similar numbers until herd immunity is achieved.
And to finish, how are Sweden doing compared to their neighbours in deaths per 1m/pop
Sweden - 361 (from 301) Denmark - 93 (from 89) Finland - 52 (from 46) Norway - 43 (from 40)
So it's definitely hurting them but when they reach herd immunity their numbers will fall back and the rest will catch them up, unless there's a vaccine produced before that happens.
[Post edited 23 May 2020 13:39]
Interesting, guess it all hinges on whether you believe a word China says.
I don't think anyone believes a word that comes out of China but even if you multiplied a lot of their daily cases in March/April by 100, the'd still be less than the UK's.
I'm highly suspicious of the fact that China have only declared 1 death in a month (apart from when they lumped on an additional 1290 on the 17th April that they found down the back of the sofa). Russia are also massively under declaring their C-19 death toll which brings us back to checking the 'all causes' charts but Russia likes to take it's sweet time producing those so don't hold your breath.
PS For everyone, please don't copy my stupidly long posts in your reply, most of us don't have enough monitor real estate to cope with it.
A week on here's how the picture has changed (May 15th to 21st)
Total deaths
USA...............95,966.....(from 86,912, from 76,928)...+9054 (from +9984) UK.................36,042.....(from 33,614, from 30,615)...+2428 (from +2999) Italy...............32,486.....(from 31,368, from 29,958)...+1118 (from +1410) France...........28,215.....(from 27,425, from 25,987)....+790 (from +1438) Spain.............27,940.... (from 27,321, from 26,070)....+619 (from +1251) Belgium.........9,186.......(from 8,903, from 8,415)........+283 (from +488) Germany........8,309.......(from 7,928, from 7,392).......+381 (from +536) Sweden..........3,871.......(from 3,529, from 3,040).......+342 (from +489)
Deaths Per 1 million population
Belgium........792 (from 773, from 726) Spain............597 (from 587, from 557) UK................531 (from 495, from 451) Italy..............530 (from 519, from 495) France..........432 (from 420, from 398) Sweden........383 (from 361, from 301) USA..............290 (from 263, from 232) Germany........99 (from 95, from 88)
UK moves above Italy
Deaths per 10 million population for the last 7 days (to see whose curve is going up and whose curve is going down)
UK.................357 (from 441, from 556, from 734, from 860) Sweden.........338 (from 484, from 450, from 559, from 681) Brazil.............286 (from 226, from 154, from 121, from 64) USA...............273 (from 301, from 394, from 411,from 463) Peru..............267 (from 194, from 174, from 145, from 90) Belgium.........244 (from 421, from 708, from 952, from 1409) Italy...............185 (from 233, from 329, from 400, from 559) Spain.............132 (from 267, from 326, from 510, from 647) France...........121 (from 220, from 247, from 386, from 603) Germany.........45 (from 64, from 92, from 125, from 181)
UK moves to the top despite a sizable drop in numbers. Sweden declared 5 deaths on the 17th and 19 on the 18th which brought their weekly figure down considerably. Belgium's numbers continue to drop at a fast pace and Spain also saw a large drop in new deaths last week. I've added Brazil and Peru to the list as they are the two worst effected countries on an upward curve whilst the rest are on a downward curve.
I'll continue showing how Sweden compares to its neighbours because the theory is at some point they will catch up when herd immunity has been achieved (or the disease is completely eradicated from their country).
Deaths per 1 million population
Sweden Sweden - 383 (from 361, from 301) Denmark - 96 (from 93, from 89) Finland - 55 (from 52, from 46) Norway - 43.3 (from 42.8, from 40)
Norway declared a total of 3 deaths last week....I'll just leave that there.
This week Spain decided now was a good time to revisit “what constitutes a C-19 death” and on the 25th May decided 1915 souls died of other causes. Previous to that Cataluña found an additional 632 deaths which was more than Spain had declared for the previous 7 days. The day after declaring -1915 deaths Spain had 280 deaths (the highest since 281 on 1st May) and then promptly declared 1 death for each of the following two days. I will leave Spain in the 7 day comparison chart but that is why they are in a minus for the week.
For the 7 days from 22nd May to 28th May here's how the picture has changed, I've also included Mexico and Ireland (Just for you Brian)
Sweden moves back to the top as there non lockdown saw an increase in weekly deaths for the 2nd time in 4 weeks. Brazil, Peru and Mexico are on the upward curve so are passing the Euro nations (and the USA) who are headed in the opposite direction, for now anyway. The UK's weekly deaths continue to fall quite sharply and sees them drop from 1st to 4th and with Brazil, Peru and Mexico's upward curve, the UK won't be top again for some time. Belgium, once the yard stick to comfort ourselves with that we were not as bad as them, continue their sharp drop in deaths for last week but their total deaths per 1m pop' will be embarrassing them for some time to come. We'll have to check next week to see how Spain is really doing.
The Scandinavian league is here to see if Sweden made the right choice by not going into lockdown. Sweden's weekly death toll is going up and down as you would expect from a country settled into it's long term strategy (although officially they deny the plan is for herd immunity). This could change when the other three emerge from their lockdowns but it is unlikely they will see a huge rise in deaths as a lot of Sweden's happened in care homes and they weren't ready for it. The time spent in lockdown has meant that the other three are now better prepared to protect the elderly residents should there be a 2nd spike.
After declaring 3 deaths for the previous week, Norway declared 1 death this week. Let's all move to Norway.
I've ignored the Cases charts because they rely heavily on a country's ability to test and countries like Nigeria (Pop 205m) have only tested 269 people per million and Ethiopia (pop 114m) have tested 799 per million. Compare that to Spain who have tested 76k per mil, Russia 66.5k per mil (pop 146 mil), Italy 61k per mil and The UK nearly 58k per mil and you can see that getting anything close to the true number of cases is impossible. I'm talking about cases now because whilst a lot of countries are on a downward curve, the number of cases worldwide (despite the limited testing for many countries) is on the up. The highest number of daily cases for the World when Europe was at it's peak was on the 24th April. The total for that day was 101,884 but yesterday there were 116,304 (the highest to date). Now the increase in cases will in part be down to countries finally getting hold of large quantities of tests and the relatively low daily death rate at the moment would suggest this is the case. For example, On the 24th April when there were 101,884 new cases...
The number of cases/deaths for the 10 days to 24th April was 831,838, deaths 67,780 The number of cases/deaths for the 10 days to 28th May was 1,013,135, deaths 42,426
So a lot more cases are being detected but a lot less deaths are occurring.
As you can see from the 10m/pop 7 day chart, countries like Brazil (6th largest in the world), Mexico (10th largest) are amongst the 6 worst hit countries in the world at the moment (when you take into account their population size). They are also countries that aren't doing a lot of testing. Brazil are only testing 4101 per mil and Mexico 1901 per mil. So on one hand we have a lot of testing in countries coming out of lockdown (who are holding their breath and hoping there won't be a 2nd spike) and on the other we have very little testing in some of the worlds largest countries who are on an upward curve. When you combine these two situations it's hard to see anything other than a rise in worldwide cases/deaths for some time to come. The next two weeks will show if the Cummings effect (if it's alright for him, it's alright for me) will be seen in a rise of cases for the UK. The sudden relaxing of restrictions from Monday will be blamed if there is a rise as 'you didn't follow the social distancing rules' will be the line and nothing to do with the people ignoring lockdown restrictions caused by Cummings. All in my opinion of course.
To finish, (sorry, nothing too positive here) there's a chance this thing will mutate and if it does it will be with us for good so all we can do is plan ahead and have the necessary staff and equipment ready to roll as and when it comes back. There's also a chance that it will mutate into a less harmful bug and we can ignore it as we do the flu (which will still kill between 250k and 500k a year but we've coped with that for decades so no problem there). Or maybe Sunetra Gupta is right and C-19 is on the way out. It would be nice (obviously) but I can't see how, after seeing how quickly it spread even after going into lockdown, it will suddenly just fade away. It's estimated that 15% to 25% of us that are coming out of lockdown have been exposed to it. That number drops for the countries that are behind the curve so despite it feeling like 'this is the end' for us coming out of lockdown, I fear it is just the end of the beginning and there's still along way to go.
The sun is out, so not all bad.
PS, please don't copy this post. Ta
Edit Changed Cummings affect to effect, always get that one wrong and changed the format for the first chart to make it look neater.
I started posting the timeline differences between the UK, Spain and Italy in the Corona thread but it lost a bit of relevance when Italy didn't include NHD's and it didn't take into account the population size. In the beginning It was quite well established that the UK was a week behind Spain and 2 weeks behind Italy but the daily press conference dropped the comparison chart when the UK overtook France on 24th April. Since then there hasn't been any comparison charts so just for the sake (fun?) of it, here's how that chart looks today (starting when the UK's death toll was in three figures).
To save you counting, the UK is 15 days ahead of Italy (but Italy don't include all of their NHD's), 25 days ahead of France and 28 ahead of Spain. It's not an useful guide anymore as Spain have declared 4 deaths in the last three days compared to the UK's 1,113 so I won't post it again but as it was such an important tool in the daily pressers, it's here one last time or at least until it becomes relevant again.
More of a musing, but how do the figures compare when the weather is taken into account? Sunshine/ Vit. D is considered a factor in combating this virus so is there the possibility that an extended spell of bad weather could see the figures rise again? Also, well done for doing this, it is very informative.
Nobody really knows yet. Some scientific studies concluded that the virus survives longer in warm to lower temperatures but there are other factors to take into consideration like wind speed and humidity. This article has quite a few links to some detailed analysis https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-co
The Spanish inquisition continues as their explanation as to why nearly 2K deaths were wiped off their figures on 25th May was as clear as mud.
"On May 25, Spain announced yet another way of collecting data, by counting a death based on when it happened, instead of when authorities were notified about it. As a result, the country’s death toll saw a 2,000 drop".
For deaths per 1m/pop The UK passed Italy last week and Spain this week so whichever way you slice it, the UK is officially the worst of these three countries. This is despite having a two week head start on Italy who, just as a reminder, made wearing a face mask mandatory on April 5th. The UK is now, sorry, in 10 days will follow suite and just to be clear, that's two and a half months after Italy. I'm actually surprised by this, I thought the mask wearing ship had sailed for the UK. After the 'effective' end to the lockdown, I just assumed the government had decided the hospitals (and the pop up ones) were standing by and ready to go for round two. It does make some sense because without masks the NHS would be hit harder in the 2nd spike than in the 1st as the disease is well established throughout the UK now (rather than just in hotspots). To stop the NHS coming close to collapsing a 2nd time, the spread has to be slowed down so flattening the curve through wearing face masks could do that. Unless something catastrophic happens I can't see the government enforcing a 2nd lockdown so I think it will be 'head down and just go for it', something Johnson does have some experience with.
On to the numbers, for the 7 days from 29th May to 4th June here's the latest.
The epicentre now shifts to Latin and South America with Brazil now the worst hit nation for the last 7 days (when taking into account the size of the population). Mexico continues its sharp curve upwards but Peru saw it's first reverse since the epidemic began. Sweden continues bouncing downhill (small increase followed by large decrease) and the UK saw another significant fall. Ireland saw a huge 55% drop this week with the USA, Belgium, Italy, France and Germany all continuing their week on week falls. Spain needs new batteries for it's calculator.
There's still something fishy with the death toll coming out of Spain. To highlight the problem, this was what they reported for the week 15th to 21st May — 217, 138, 104, 87, 59, 69, 110. The following week had the extra 632 from Cataluña and the mysterious disappearing 2k — 52, 688, 50, 74, -1915, 280, 1. The 280 was the first day of the new reporting system (which was also the highest since 281 on 1st May) and is then followed by — 1, 1, 2, 4, 2, 0, 0, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0. Hmmm.
For the 7 days from 5th to 11th June, here's the latest...
With Brazil, Peru and Mexico as the top three worst hit nations (for 10m pop/7 days), Latin America is firmly the epicentre of the virus for June. Sweden broke their run of bouncing up after a down which will help them reaffirm that their strategy is working. Ireland are the only European country in the list to see an increase from last week but to put it into perspective, they had 39 deaths in the last 7 days compared to 25 the week before so nothing to start panicking about. Spain...hmmm.
Even allowing for year on year discrepancies, it suggests that the additional deaths in Spain are nearly 44k higher than in the same period in 2019 (up to 24th May), which is a massive increase and significantly different to the 27k reported deaths down to Coronavirus.
I'd be interested to know what the excess deaths figure in UK against 2019 as opposed to the reported Coronavirus deaths.
Thanks for producing all these stats. It's so much better than just relying on Government spin alone.
Edit: I've just looked up the deaths for England and Wales - could only find these and for April 2020 so far. But the April deaths were 88k compared to last year's figure of 44k for April. To give some perspective the highest number of deaths per month in 2019 were in Jan 2019 and were 53k. Interesting that our total number of reported Covid deaths including other parts of the UK, and the months of May and some of June, is 41k.
The ONS produce stats but mainly for England and Wales only. You can get UK ones but they aren't as readily available so we might have to wait a while before they produce this years. I find the old data useful as you can see how quickly and how consistently countries are performing. Take Belgium for example, way out in front on the deaths per 1m/pop chart but in the 10m/7day chart are doing better than Italy (and for this week Ireland) and considerably better than the UK so it gives a better feel of what is happening there right now.
I was going to write a bit about Sweden but ran out of time as I think their comparison to the other three Scandinavian countries is a microcosm of "lockdown or not to Lockdown". It's still too early to say who chose the right path but it is interesting to see the experiment being played out in real time. I might expand on that next week and thanks for the vote of approval, glad you find these charts useful.
The ONS produce stats but mainly for England and Wales only. You can get UK ones but they aren't as readily available so we might have to wait a while before they produce this years. I find the old data useful as you can see how quickly and how consistently countries are performing. Take Belgium for example, way out in front on the deaths per 1m/pop chart but in the 10m/7day chart are doing better than Italy (and for this week Ireland) and considerably better than the UK so it gives a better feel of what is happening there right now.
I was going to write a bit about Sweden but ran out of time as I think their comparison to the other three Scandinavian countries is a microcosm of "lockdown or not to Lockdown". It's still too early to say who chose the right path but it is interesting to see the experiment being played out in real time. I might expand on that next week and thanks for the vote of approval, glad you find these charts useful.
Hi Gary I've edited my post with those figures. There does seem to be a discrepancy in my view even for the month of April only.
Yes it will be fascinating to see how it unwinds in Scandinavia with the different strategies.
This is something that was discussed a long way back in the Corona thread when it was clear that many countries were fudging their figures. I read a while ago that Russia were doing everything they could to under report C19 deaths preferring to declare the cause of deaths as pneumonia. Unsurprisingly they have seen a massive increase in pneumonia deaths year on year so unless the deaths are not reported at all, it does seem to be a pointless exercise and one that is driven purely from a political perspective.
Nobody wants to be seen as not having a handle on the virus so they will use every trick in the book to massage the figures down like delaying the reporting of deaths until a family member has given permission, exclude deaths that haven't been tested, exclude deaths in the home, exclude deaths in care homes etc. Then you have the underlying conditions which, on their own can be managed and people live for many years with their condition but when you add C19, the combination is deadly.
Next year we are likely to see an increase in deaths caused by pneumonia, heart condition, diabetes, chronic asthma, liver disease, kidney disease because even though they tested positive for C19, it will be the underlying condition that is written on the death certificate to keep the C19 number down.
Then you have the people that died because their operations were postponed and others that died because they were too scared to report life threatening symptoms. All of these people are included in the "all causes" total and as we are unlikely to ever get a true breakdown of those who died because of C19 and those who died with C19, all we can do is look at the excess deaths to get a better impression of how C19 affected each country.
I appreciate that I have just said that a lot of the reported C19 deaths are being deliberately under reported yet I produce weekly charts based on the reported C19 deaths but as this is the only info that is being reported daily, it's a good indication of what is going on if not entirely accurate.
yes well nobody has ever suggested shutting down the economy for Pneumonia so thats nice and convenient especially in the US where they were desperate to reopen and did so well before hitting the stated target conditions in most states and most probably in Russia as well
Definitely looks like the figures are being fudged globally Gary.
It's interesting having the official figures anyway. But eventually people are going to compare them to excess deaths figures and the fraud will be exposed. I guess they're hoping the vaccine will be here by then and people will be less focused in holding governments to account.
The number of people who get all of their info from the nine o'clock news will massively outnumber those who go hunting for excess deaths charts. Delaying when the truth can be told about how a war started or how a president died has been a very useful tool for governments for over century. By the time the truth is finally revealed, those responsible have long since died and the general public have lost interest and file it under 'history' and get on with their lives.
Yes you're absolutely right Gary. And if all else fails let's declare a public enquiry which bores on for years and by the time it's finished all those responsible are out of the picture. Even though it doesn't make any difference to outcomes, I'd just rather rube as informed as I can be, and not just rely on biased reporting from our newspapers.
Spain have stopped reporting any deaths whilst the system for recording their stats gets rebooted (my interpretation). The health ministry's emergencies coordinator Fernando Simon said “the overall number of deaths had remained "frozen" as a result of discrepancies in the figures, which he put down to delays in submitting data in certain regional areas”...but some regions call bullsh*t as their numbers have been reported correctly.
Peru swap places with Brazil with Peru becoming Latin America's 'Belgium'. With their population of 33 million they are tiny when compared to Brazil — 212 million and Mexico — 129 million so an increase from 1078 deaths last week to 1352 this week takes them to the top. Ireland's blip last week was corrected with only 22 deaths recorded for the week. The USA and the EU countries all continued their week on week falls. We wait for Spain to get their act together.
There's mixed messages from Sweden because their deaths have been falling steadily since their peak on April 21st which you would think was a clear indication that their non lockdown restrictions and social distancing guidelines are working. The problem is that in the last 16 days they have reported over 1k of new cases (for the first time) in 10 of those days (1560 yesterday, their highest to date). The last 6 weeks for new cases looks like this:
w/c 11th June - 7975 w/c 4th June - 6742 w/c 28th May - 5118 w/c 21st May - 3991 w/c 14th May - 3913 w/c 7th May - 4193 w/c 30th April - 3829
The rise in the number of positive cases in the last 3 weeks could be down to increased testing and this is backed up by the falling death toll but we won't know for sure if that is the case until these new cases are fully recovered in 2/3/4 weeks time.
In general
The vast majority of people have not been infected with C19 so social distancing measures will be with us until the virus disappears or until there is a vaccine. With most of Europe opening up we have to cross our fingers and hope the track, trace and isolate systems work because every country will want to avoid a 2nd lockdown as it could cripple their economies. For the UK this is a critical time as a lot of people are heading back to work and to the shops. The new face mask rule for public transport will stop people spreading the disease but if only 3 out of 4 are wearing them or they are worn under the chin as crumb catchers, then expect to see case numbers rise. Provided the hospitals are fully stocked with PPE and additional staff are trained, an increase in patient numbers will not be as bad as the first time but if people get bored with the new normal and can't be bothered to follow the rules then a 2nd and larger spike is inevitable. Without a second lockdown it could be disastrous for the vulnerable so fingers crossed enough people are taking the social distancing and face mask rules seriously. One piece of good news is that the commonly available steroid, dexamethasone, is proving to reduce deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
As I mentioned in the Corona thread, I completely missed Chile who have joined their fellow Latin American countries to cement this location as the latest epicenter. Rather than repost everything I'll just add them to the rolling 7day/10m pop chart which now looks like:
Spain have finally started reporting figures again and have removed the -1915 shortly before the system change. They also removed the extra 688 that Catalunya added and after all the reshuffling, their total for deaths on 19th June went from 27,136 to 28,315.
Sweden stopped reporting figures for 3 days last week but added the cases on the 23rd but still have 0 deaths for 19th, 20th and 21st. Their record for reporting stats has been pretty erratic (as you can see from this image https://photos.app.goo.gl/mbaUUCsCPofeHW7aA so being able to get anything meaningful from their weekly figures is a bit hit and miss. They have also been editing their case numbers which increased from 54,768 on the 18th June to 57,476, an additional 2778.
Italy altered their stats which resulted in 561 fewer deaths being reported which were spread over several months. Late last night the USA added an extra couple of thousand deaths but spread them out over the last few months. This seems to be a common occurrence and one we may have to get used to as “what constitutes a C19 death” gets revisited by every country.
China have still only reported 2 deaths since 17th April but have seen an increase in cases in the last week leading to restrictions returning to Beijing. Israel and Iran are seeing their case numbers go up again but there's some debate about whether you can call it a second wave as neither completely eradicated the first one.
All of the Euro countries (apart from Ireland who had 13 deaths this week compared to 11 last week) are still seeing week on week falls with the four Latin American countries of Chile, Brazil, Peru and Mexico still holding the top four worst hit places in the World last week (when size of population is taken into account).
The UK recorded 942 deaths this week, the lowest number since the 719 for the week ending 26th March which was the week the UK went into lockdown. The 2m rule for England has been lowered to 1+ which has nothing to do with health and safety and is all about how many people you can fit into pubs and restaurants. In reality, the 2m rule only comes into operation when someone has painted it on the floor, other than that it's a fairly useless rule that is almost impossible to comply with. The best anyone can do is keep a slight distance from someone and hope they don't breath in their general direction. With the shops and beaches filling up and normality returning for those without underlying conditions, time will tell if the social distancing measures are working or whether the continued fall in numbers is more to do with the hot weather.
The UK has the third highest number of deaths in the world, has the second highest number of deaths per 1m population and is currently the the 6th worst hit country in the last week (again based on population size). So I guess we can pack up the daily Coronavirus briefings as there's nothing to see here....move along. Good job lads, good job.
For the 7 days from 19th to 25th June, here's the latest numbers...
Sweden recorded 177 deaths this week (including the three 0's) which is their lowest since the 66 on 26th March at the beginning of their outbreak. Norway recorded 5 deaths for the week, their worst since mid May, Denmark recorded 3 and Finland 1.
Sweden overhauled their case numbers this week and this has increased the number of cases. As I mentioned before, if the death toll keeps falling then all this indicates is that they are testing more people with fewer needing critical care.
The last 8 weeks for Sweden for new cases looks like this:
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