| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:44 - Mar 13 with 2286 views | Swanjaxs |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:19 - Mar 13 by jackrabbit |
I would. And if you had paid hundreds of pounds on tickets, hotels and travel, I think you probably would too. It’s easy to claim otherwise when you’re not actually committed financially. |
No. No I wouldn't.
You crack on though mate, it's a free world an all that 👠|  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:46 - Mar 13 with 2282 views | jackjackjackjack |
This Twitter thread summarises who the Chief Medical and Scientific Officers get their information from. Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling. I'd rather trust them than random people on the internet. [Post edited 13 Mar 2020 12:47]
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:19 - Mar 13 with 2183 views | Professor |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:25 - Mar 13 by legoman |
As a a scientist then, please explain why it was BS. |
Primarily around the concept of herd immunity. If a proportion of a population is immune (ideally vaccinated) then it acts as a 'firebreak" to transmission. This is dependent on how transmissible and infection is- defined by R0 or the reproductive number. In an R0 of 1, each infected person infects one other. R0 of 10 means 10 become infected. The RO is important as is the efficacy of a vaccine or immune response.
So 2 main points
1. Herd immunity usually needs 70-95% of a population immune with a good level of protective immunity. For something like measles where R0 is 20 this is at the top end (and why we get more measles now after the drop in MMR uptake to about 80%). For a low R) 1-2 it is around 70%. Best guess for SARS CoV2 (the virus causing Covid 19) is around 2-3.5. If at 3.5 then we would need closer to 80% coverage. Much higher than suggested
2. RNA viruses mutate more quickly, so protection against flu for example (another class of RNA viruses called orthomyxoviruses) is never that great, so we don't get a good herd immunity effect even with a low R0 unless we get very high coverage with a vaccine
In addition what we don't know is how good exposure is at generating protective immunity. The fact is we probably need 80-90% of a population immune to have a strong herd effect -there is still some at lower levels but much diluted.
Most importantly the strategy really does not care if people get the infection or not-lots will die before we get protection. | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:40 - Mar 13 with 2118 views | karnataka |
Why April 3rd? Do they somehow think CoVid-19 will have been and gone in just 3 weeks and we can all get back to normal? One prediction is that the number of cases will peak in June/July so this season is probably fvcked along with Euro2020, Wimbledon and possibly the Olympics. |  | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:47 - Mar 13 with 2103 views | karnataka |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:41 - Mar 13 by Darran |
Why don’t they speak English in Germany then? |
Because although the Allies won WW2, they didn't invade and occupy Germany and that was never their intention. However, Germany's intention was to invade and occupy so if Germany had won WW2 and had ruled those countries they had successfully invaded, over time, German may well have become the official language of those countries. | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:48 - Mar 13 with 2098 views | Darran |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:47 - Mar 13 by karnataka |
Because although the Allies won WW2, they didn't invade and occupy Germany and that was never their intention. However, Germany's intention was to invade and occupy so if Germany had won WW2 and had ruled those countries they had successfully invaded, over time, German may well have become the official language of those countries. |
Oh ok then.  |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:52 - Mar 13 with 2083 views | jasper_T |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:40 - Mar 13 by karnataka |
Why April 3rd? Do they somehow think CoVid-19 will have been and gone in just 3 weeks and we can all get back to normal? One prediction is that the number of cases will peak in June/July so this season is probably fvcked along with Euro2020, Wimbledon and possibly the Olympics. |
It's a few weeks for everyone to figure out what the actual plan is; do we postpone further or cancel entirely with trophies handed out (or not)? I don't think anyone's expecting the football to start back up again at that point. | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:00 - Mar 13 with 2056 views | Glyn1 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 11:07 - Mar 13 by Jinxy |
Regardless of right or wrong, how the WRU can justify tomorrow's international is beyond me. |
Presumably because the epidemic hasn't really started yet.
And it isn't the case that a handful of people with the illness can affect a whole stadium - that would change if a significant number of people were ill but that hasn't happened yet which is why the medical authorities seem relaxed about large events still taking place at present. The football authorities may be being a little over-cautious at present but that may not be a bad thing.
I imagine this will be discussed on Any Questions tonight, which won't have a live audience. [Post edited 13 Mar 2020 14:00]
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:01 - Mar 13 with 2053 views | Glyn1 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 10:53 - Mar 13 by Neath_Jack |
That's the Euro's gone as well then surely. |
And the 2020 Olympics in Japan. | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:06 - Mar 13 with 2039 views | Glyn1 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:29 - Mar 13 by jasper_T |
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Brillliant!!! | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:11 - Mar 13 with 2020 views | andrew |
A prime mister who tells the truth, how awful...... | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:12 - Mar 13 with 2016 views | karnataka |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:52 - Mar 13 by jasper_T |
It's a few weeks for everyone to figure out what the actual plan is; do we postpone further or cancel entirely with trophies handed out (or not)? I don't think anyone's expecting the football to start back up again at that point. |
Ok, that makes sense.  | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:20 - Mar 13 with 1991 views | Jinxy |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:19 - Mar 13 by Professor |
Primarily around the concept of herd immunity. If a proportion of a population is immune (ideally vaccinated) then it acts as a 'firebreak" to transmission. This is dependent on how transmissible and infection is- defined by R0 or the reproductive number. In an R0 of 1, each infected person infects one other. R0 of 10 means 10 become infected. The RO is important as is the efficacy of a vaccine or immune response.
So 2 main points
1. Herd immunity usually needs 70-95% of a population immune with a good level of protective immunity. For something like measles where R0 is 20 this is at the top end (and why we get more measles now after the drop in MMR uptake to about 80%). For a low R) 1-2 it is around 70%. Best guess for SARS CoV2 (the virus causing Covid 19) is around 2-3.5. If at 3.5 then we would need closer to 80% coverage. Much higher than suggested
2. RNA viruses mutate more quickly, so protection against flu for example (another class of RNA viruses called orthomyxoviruses) is never that great, so we don't get a good herd immunity effect even with a low R0 unless we get very high coverage with a vaccine
In addition what we don't know is how good exposure is at generating protective immunity. The fact is we probably need 80-90% of a population immune to have a strong herd effect -there is still some at lower levels but much diluted.
Most importantly the strategy really does not care if people get the infection or not-lots will die before we get protection. |
Who says we're all thick on here eh! Very informative. |  | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:21 - Mar 13 with 1988 views | Professor |
Rugby now postponed too | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:29 - Mar 13 with 1966 views | Jinxy |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:21 - Mar 13 by Professor |
Rugby now postponed too |
Better late than never I suppose. The WRU haven't come out of this one too well have they. | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:37 - Mar 13 with 1945 views | Glyn1 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:19 - Mar 13 by Professor |
Primarily around the concept of herd immunity. If a proportion of a population is immune (ideally vaccinated) then it acts as a 'firebreak" to transmission. This is dependent on how transmissible and infection is- defined by R0 or the reproductive number. In an R0 of 1, each infected person infects one other. R0 of 10 means 10 become infected. The RO is important as is the efficacy of a vaccine or immune response.
So 2 main points
1. Herd immunity usually needs 70-95% of a population immune with a good level of protective immunity. For something like measles where R0 is 20 this is at the top end (and why we get more measles now after the drop in MMR uptake to about 80%). For a low R) 1-2 it is around 70%. Best guess for SARS CoV2 (the virus causing Covid 19) is around 2-3.5. If at 3.5 then we would need closer to 80% coverage. Much higher than suggested
2. RNA viruses mutate more quickly, so protection against flu for example (another class of RNA viruses called orthomyxoviruses) is never that great, so we don't get a good herd immunity effect even with a low R0 unless we get very high coverage with a vaccine
In addition what we don't know is how good exposure is at generating protective immunity. The fact is we probably need 80-90% of a population immune to have a strong herd effect -there is still some at lower levels but much diluted.
Most importantly the strategy really does not care if people get the infection or not-lots will die before we get protection. |
So, if I understand correctly, there are two ways to defeat the virus.
(1) By building up "herd immunity". But you think that's not feasible any time soon because you say that we would need an 80% coverage. "Much higher than suggested."
(2) By developing a vaccine. But typically that takes at least one to two years of development and testing that it can be used safely.
Do I have that correct? | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:43 - Mar 13 with 1926 views | Professor |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:37 - Mar 13 by Glyn1 |
So, if I understand correctly, there are two ways to defeat the virus.
(1) By building up "herd immunity". But you think that's not feasible any time soon because you say that we would need an 80% coverage. "Much higher than suggested."
(2) By developing a vaccine. But typically that takes at least one to two years of development and testing that it can be used safely.
Do I have that correct? |
In essence. There are things we don't know- such as how drier weather and higher UV will impact on virus survival which could reduce transmission a fair bit. An effective vaccine is by no means guaranteed. We will get increasing herd immunity over time, but 60% is extremely optimisitic.
I hate to think about the US who are even more ill prepared | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:52 - Mar 13 with 1903 views | LeonWasGod |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 10:46 - Mar 13 by 1983 |
Here we go melt down!!!
Wheres my money wheres my money |
I'm absolutely devastated that I'll be missing out on the "new and improved catering experience" on offer at the Liberty this year. |  | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:58 - Mar 13 with 1888 views | LeonWasGod |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:19 - Mar 13 by Professor |
Primarily around the concept of herd immunity. If a proportion of a population is immune (ideally vaccinated) then it acts as a 'firebreak" to transmission. This is dependent on how transmissible and infection is- defined by R0 or the reproductive number. In an R0 of 1, each infected person infects one other. R0 of 10 means 10 become infected. The RO is important as is the efficacy of a vaccine or immune response.
So 2 main points
1. Herd immunity usually needs 70-95% of a population immune with a good level of protective immunity. For something like measles where R0 is 20 this is at the top end (and why we get more measles now after the drop in MMR uptake to about 80%). For a low R) 1-2 it is around 70%. Best guess for SARS CoV2 (the virus causing Covid 19) is around 2-3.5. If at 3.5 then we would need closer to 80% coverage. Much higher than suggested
2. RNA viruses mutate more quickly, so protection against flu for example (another class of RNA viruses called orthomyxoviruses) is never that great, so we don't get a good herd immunity effect even with a low R0 unless we get very high coverage with a vaccine
In addition what we don't know is how good exposure is at generating protective immunity. The fact is we probably need 80-90% of a population immune to have a strong herd effect -there is still some at lower levels but much diluted.
Most importantly the strategy really does not care if people get the infection or not-lots will die before we get protection. |
Does the suggestion coming from China that people can be re-infected imply that it might be difficult/impossible to build up a herd immunity? | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:12 - Mar 13 with 1865 views | karnataka |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:52 - Mar 13 by jasper_T |
It's a few weeks for everyone to figure out what the actual plan is; do we postpone further or cancel entirely with trophies handed out (or not)? I don't think anyone's expecting the football to start back up again at that point. |
I can't see many people being happy with complete cancellation of the rest of the season. Just about the only things that are sorted are Liverpool for the title , Bolton & Southend relegated from L1, Stevenage relegated from L2 and Chorley relegated from National League. Everything else is still very much up for grabs and must surely be properly and fairly resolved at some stage even if it means a considerable delay to the start of next season. | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:24 - Mar 13 with 1844 views | jasper_T |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:12 - Mar 13 by karnataka |
I can't see many people being happy with complete cancellation of the rest of the season. Just about the only things that are sorted are Liverpool for the title , Bolton & Southend relegated from L1, Stevenage relegated from L2 and Chorley relegated from National League. Everything else is still very much up for grabs and must surely be properly and fairly resolved at some stage even if it means a considerable delay to the start of next season. |
Circumstances are going to make a lot of sporting "musts" impossible to figure out or resolve to everyone's satisfaction. | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:27 - Mar 13 with 1831 views | Swansea93 |
On Talksport they were saying rules state as long as they have 3 weeks break between a season end and a new season they can play up until July. | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:34 - Mar 13 with 1809 views | monmouth |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:12 - Mar 13 by karnataka |
I can't see many people being happy with complete cancellation of the rest of the season. Just about the only things that are sorted are Liverpool for the title , Bolton & Southend relegated from L1, Stevenage relegated from L2 and Chorley relegated from National League. Everything else is still very much up for grabs and must surely be properly and fairly resolved at some stage even if it means a considerable delay to the start of next season. |
It's hard to see beyond a solution (if this follows its expected path) to start afresh next season. Tough on some and good for others so maybe some handicaps/boosts could be considered to start next season. Hard to see how anything else is tenable if we get disease peaks and lockdown in April, May and June. Obviously it's just wait and see, but sport has zero importance and will also be a political football as a virtue signaller, given its role in terms of very large social gatherings. |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:37 - Mar 13 with 1796 views | karnataka |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:34 - Mar 13 by monmouth |
It's hard to see beyond a solution (if this follows its expected path) to start afresh next season. Tough on some and good for others so maybe some handicaps/boosts could be considered to start next season. Hard to see how anything else is tenable if we get disease peaks and lockdown in April, May and June. Obviously it's just wait and see, but sport has zero importance and will also be a political football as a virtue signaller, given its role in terms of very large social gatherings. |
How about every remaining match settled by a penalty shootout? | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:42 - Mar 13 with 1785 views | jasper_T |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:37 - Mar 13 by Glyn1 |
So, if I understand correctly, there are two ways to defeat the virus.
(1) By building up "herd immunity". But you think that's not feasible any time soon because you say that we would need an 80% coverage. "Much higher than suggested."
(2) By developing a vaccine. But typically that takes at least one to two years of development and testing that it can be used safely.
Do I have that correct? |
Vaccines are a way to manufacture herd immunity without people having to go through the full virus themselves. But just look at the recent mumps outbreak in the academy, it doesn't take many people skipping their jabs to let these things go wild again.
Defeating the virus will also involve developing better ways to treat the illness(es) it causes, and having more facilities (respirators mainly) available for the people who need hospitalisation all at the same time. This is where delaying the spread for even a few weeks can make a huge difference in the number of people dying.
Potentially this one never fully goes away, like the flu, but we can be better equipped to manage it and save lives in the future. In most countries the priority is limiting the imminent death toll by flattening the curve on rate of infection so that people aren't denied treatment because none is available. Here we want to "take it on the chin". | | | |
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