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Sterling has already been the best performing major currency this year. And if you think this is a bigger crisis than 1972-1985...(mass murder in Ireland and at times on the mainland, three day week, industrial unrest, riots, fuel shortages, original EU entry).
.@CarolineFlintMP has pointed the finger at Labour's 'ardent Remainers' Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry, Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper as a big factor in why the party lost 59 seats in the general election. #Ridge
Sterling has already been the best performing major currency this year. And if you think this is a bigger crisis than 1972-1985...(mass murder in Ireland and at times on the mainland, three day week, industrial unrest, riots, fuel shortages, original EU entry).
[Post edited 16 Dec 2019 10:36]
Performance since an arbitrary date has little meaning. I used a rough midpoint value of 1.14 eur to gbp since 2016.
I agree the 1970s oil shock was the last comparable crisis catalyst. But the current ingredients are more severe IMHO.
A magnificent football club, the love of our lives, finding a way to finally have its day in the sun.
.@CarolineFlintMP has pointed the finger at Labour's 'ardent Remainers' Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry, Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper as a big factor in why the party lost 59 seats in the general election. #Ridge
I love the way she’s planning to care about people some time in the future rather than doing it now. Presumably she’ll be swearing the hypocritic rather than the Hippocratic oath.
What are your views on how this affects Ireland, border(s) and violence?
Would really like to know what the feeling is now.
Anybody who is interested in what may happen relating to the Irish protocol (and I accept that won't apply to many), should make a point of following Tony Connelly from RTE. He can provide the best explanation that I've read on the issues facing the border and defining the relationships between GB, Northern Ireland and the Republic.
It shows that getting a workable solution by the end of 2020 is highly problematic. Unless Johnson agrees to everything.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
I believe that the border issue is a complete red herring and therefore will not affect those counties that run along the border. In saying that there will have to be some form of customs check, which imo will involve a trusted trader and electronic tracking system. Systems are already in place.
Can I suggest that you read Tony Connelly. And then tell me it is a red herring.
It's long but very detailed analysis of the issues facing all parties over the next year.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
I think I've just relayed my fears on this in a post a couple of minutes ago.
Put it this way, the experts have warned that violence would be almost assured.
On the human side, friends of mine up there have been preparing to move if a hard border were re-introduced, for the safety of their kids.
That is just awful Brian, truly depressing. My wife and I are over a few times a year visiting in-laws - the changes in the North since our first visit maybe thirty years ago are remarkable in what is a beautiful and friendly place. We've looked at perhaps moving over when we get a bit older.
Not at all. My roots, family, friends, citizenship, language, culture etc etc are British. Why would I want the country to struggle? If this government comes up with an honest and coherent strategy and shows it can implement it I will be delighted.
A magnificent football club, the love of our lives, finding a way to finally have its day in the sun.
“Fcuk Cor-bin, he doesn’t represent me, I hate him and his policies. I wish him the absolute worst he’s a c-unit”
Flip the words and no doubt it gets view as a xenophobic, right wing bully boy, spitting poison and vitriol However these socialist types with their intelligenzia, dinner party alarm and deep rooted sense of the whole world is wonderful are different somehow. Well guess what? To crack on you’ll need to lose your sense of entitlement, your overbearing feelings of being wronged and your paranoia that if the whole world is one big kibbutz where we all eat beetroot. Dust yourself down, make the best of it, do your level best and try to enjoy life whatever your circumstances. We go again in five years time when hopefully I’ll still be around but semi retired and hunkered down in a bolt hole reflecting on my previous 55 years on this planet and glad I’m out of the rat race.
One Boris Johnson, there’s only one Boris Johnson etc, etc, etc
Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal
Anybody who is interested in what may happen relating to the Irish protocol (and I accept that won't apply to many), should make a point of following Tony Connelly from RTE. He can provide the best explanation that I've read on the issues facing the border and defining the relationships between GB, Northern Ireland and the Republic.
That is just awful Brian, truly depressing. My wife and I are over a few times a year visiting in-laws - the changes in the North since our first visit maybe thirty years ago are remarkable in what is a beautiful and friendly place. We've looked at perhaps moving over when we get a bit older.
What a mess.
Well, that particular worry would only be realised if a hard border is re-introduced, which is looking less likely since Johnson abandoned the Unionists with his U-Turn/Collapse.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
That is just awful Brian, truly depressing. My wife and I are over a few times a year visiting in-laws - the changes in the North since our first visit maybe thirty years ago are remarkable in what is a beautiful and friendly place. We've looked at perhaps moving over when we get a bit older.
What a mess.
The election In NI was very interesting. DUP lost 20%ish of their voters who probably wont be coming back and the demographics are against them in future. SF lost 25%. Both those two will be in a hurry to get Stormont functioning again to try and drown out their opponents but I doubt if that will work. Both have been poorly led and ignoring big changes in the six counties.
The Republics economy and standard of living has powered ahead of the North which is dependant on public sector jobs which may be in some peril now anyway. Arguably the NHS- much superior to health care in the south is holding the North in the union but how long will that be the case?
In addition traditional or cultural Unionists had a huge message from Boris that he does not care for them and that they need to sensibly think about what the future might bring. That voting block would hold the balance of power in every Irish election rather than the UK ones when there is a hung parliament. Last night the thing trending on Irish Twitter was #unityplan as people who are not traditional republicans try to start thinking of a new framework for a type of United Ireland that maybe enshrines some of the things that unionists hold most dear.
As for the rest of us I think we are going to see some big changes coming. If you read some of Dominic Cummings writings it is very clear he is a total radical- not a conservative at all. Boris looks to see him as his Keith Joseph was to Thatcher. He really plans to smash a lot up to try and remake a modern state- the BBC and the civil service in particular should rightly be very nervous- they will not survive the next 5 years in any recognisable form. It was obvious at the end of the last parliament he was no lover of representative parliamentary democracy, constitutional checks and balances or people who think ' this is the way we have always done it'. What he wants is something that is populist - closer to an Erdgan than a Heseltine. I suspect soon people like Jacob RM will find themselves eaten by the monster they helped create.
How the left responds to that? Hard to say? Much easier to hunker down in self indulgent hatred of Tories as baby eaters. Offering free wifi when there are food banks to deal with one little example. Not seeing anything in the post defeat discussions that even gives a clue they know what is coming next.
Lib dems and labour are potentially leaderless (although JC and co are busy trying to set a new election for leader as favourably as possible to their chosen candidate). Both parties would be sensible to look at forming a new party that is not fixated on the politics of the past but tries to offer solutions to what is coming next. Fat chance of that happening though.
Not at all. My roots, family, friends, citizenship, language, culture etc etc are British. Why would I want the country to struggle? If this government comes up with an honest and coherent strategy and shows it can implement it I will be delighted.
Looking at his track record the chances of Boris Johnson implementing a coherent strategy are pretty slim. I left out the “honest” bit for obvious reasons.
The politics are complex because the governance across the UK border will be made more complicated to a significant factor.
It only takes a brief review of the trade associations, business groups, and confederations to understand how paralysing an overly bureaucratic system will be. This will not, as suggested before, be fixed easily. This is a wicked problem that requires a level of thought and nuance which the timetable will prevent. As the model says, you can have any two from quick, cheap, or good but not all three.
There is no-one in government who is assuming this is going to be anything other than a really hard slog and to believe it as anything other than that is naive.
The election In NI was very interesting. DUP lost 20%ish of their voters who probably wont be coming back and the demographics are against them in future. SF lost 25%. Both those two will be in a hurry to get Stormont functioning again to try and drown out their opponents but I doubt if that will work. Both have been poorly led and ignoring big changes in the six counties.
The Republics economy and standard of living has powered ahead of the North which is dependant on public sector jobs which may be in some peril now anyway. Arguably the NHS- much superior to health care in the south is holding the North in the union but how long will that be the case?
In addition traditional or cultural Unionists had a huge message from Boris that he does not care for them and that they need to sensibly think about what the future might bring. That voting block would hold the balance of power in every Irish election rather than the UK ones when there is a hung parliament. Last night the thing trending on Irish Twitter was #unityplan as people who are not traditional republicans try to start thinking of a new framework for a type of United Ireland that maybe enshrines some of the things that unionists hold most dear.
As for the rest of us I think we are going to see some big changes coming. If you read some of Dominic Cummings writings it is very clear he is a total radical- not a conservative at all. Boris looks to see him as his Keith Joseph was to Thatcher. He really plans to smash a lot up to try and remake a modern state- the BBC and the civil service in particular should rightly be very nervous- they will not survive the next 5 years in any recognisable form. It was obvious at the end of the last parliament he was no lover of representative parliamentary democracy, constitutional checks and balances or people who think ' this is the way we have always done it'. What he wants is something that is populist - closer to an Erdgan than a Heseltine. I suspect soon people like Jacob RM will find themselves eaten by the monster they helped create.
How the left responds to that? Hard to say? Much easier to hunker down in self indulgent hatred of Tories as baby eaters. Offering free wifi when there are food banks to deal with one little example. Not seeing anything in the post defeat discussions that even gives a clue they know what is coming next.
Lib dems and labour are potentially leaderless (although JC and co are busy trying to set a new election for leader as favourably as possible to their chosen candidate). Both parties would be sensible to look at forming a new party that is not fixated on the politics of the past but tries to offer solutions to what is coming next. Fat chance of that happening though.
Seat-belts on folks!
Great post, Phildo.
Where did you get your figures on voting swings in the North?
I'm pretty sure that the Irish Health Service is ranked higher than the NHS. Both are in danger of being gutted, however.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Where did you get your figures on voting swings in the North?
I'm pretty sure that the Irish Health Service is ranked higher than the NHS. Both are in danger of being gutted, however.
...there is lots of good stuff on Slugger O Toole for a start Brian
A lot of Irish people go for some sort of back up medical insurance don't they? And you have to pay for visits to the GP. But in modern health systems access to the big teaching hospitals is a big thing for specialist stuff which the NHS wins on? I am interested in how you find the health systems compare though having lived with both?
...there is lots of good stuff on Slugger O Toole for a start Brian
A lot of Irish people go for some sort of back up medical insurance don't they? And you have to pay for visits to the GP. But in modern health systems access to the big teaching hospitals is a big thing for specialist stuff which the NHS wins on? I am interested in how you find the health systems compare though having lived with both?
Huge drops for DUP and Sinn Féin. Hadn't realised.
I found the NHS (up to '96) and the IHS since then both excellent. The standard of care in Ireland is incredible and the staff are superb but waiting lists are diabolical, which is why so many go for private as a backup. We're being forced down that route, which is a Western phenomenon, it seems.
My sister and her family moved from London to Ireland a few years back. She worked in the NHS until moving, and she finds both comparable I would say.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
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