| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... 13:58 - May 9 with 113874 views | hubble |
..posted by a good friend of mine on Facebook, thought I'd share it on here. He's a former professional footballer (briefly for Birmingham City) and a former copper, working mainly out of Camden police station. He grew up in Kilburn/Queens Park. He's now a writer (among other things).
Worth a read I think, hope you enjoy, whether you agree with him or not, even when he veers off-topic...
"Thoughts of the Week (part 1)
Let’s start with a subheading. ‘Dear, oh dear Diane Abbot!’
In the upcoming General Election campaign and apart from the ‘Leader’ (no, not Gary Glitter) no one is more important for the Labour Party campaign than the Shadow Home Secretary. Why’s this? You ask.
The reason is obvious: Theresa May —the strong woman, Ms subtle, but steely - was the former Home Secretary. A position which she used to inflict near terminal ravages of the nation’s police forces. Under her auspices we saw numbers cut, benefits cut and police stations closed willy-nilly to cash in, short-term, on the booming (especially in London) property market.
The short-sightedness of this policy is astounding. No matter the so-called austerity budget (which only seems to apply to the working classes, while the privileged elite continue to live the life of Riley) the question must be asked as to what will happen when there’s some serious social unrest — and you can feel it stirring. Remember 2011 when the riots broke out? We had anarchy and nihilism on the streets and the police force didn’t cope with it at all. Instead we had a grand mopping up campaign. Suddenly all those poor silly students who had been demonised as hard-core criminals after they smashed the windows of the Tory HQ — and received ridiculously harsh prison sentences for what were in the main first offences - were kicked out of the pokey and replaced by the new batch of rioters. The Criminal Justice system ground to a halt, the prison’s overflowed. The courts were as ram-jam packed as a back-in-the-day David Rodigan dance. In response what did the great Theresa May do? She further decimated the police force. She did the same to the prison service. The vaunted Border Force, our first defence, is comically short of manpower and morale as they attempt to hire staff on Mickey-Mouse contracts. Labour should be slaughtering Theresa May on what she’s done. Instead we got that car crash of an interview on LBC.
To be honest I resisted calls to listen to it for a time. Some of my more right-leaning pals were raving about it, but I thought they were overreacting due to a general contempt for the Hackney MP. I was wrong. When I actually got round to listening to it I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. It was stunningly incompetent, mind-blowingly nonsensical, embarrassing and shocking. Is this the Shadow Home Secretary who’s going to lead the challenge to Theresa May’s record? She should have stood down immediately and if not the great leader should have forced her hand, no matter past rendezvous in the sack. Of course it didn’t happen and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn has no hope in this election. What a shame it all is because there are loads of issues that they should be taking the government to task on. Just look at that bumbling Tommy Cooper impersonator of a Foreign Secretary, a million miles removed from a serious statesman: Mr Retraction — an embarrassment to the nation.
I’m voting Labour in the coming election, but not for Jeremy, more for the thought of the millions of people who are going to suffer under the coming five years of Tory rule: the working men and women who haven’t seen their wages rise, in real terms, for the last thirty years, while the fat cats, sharks and speculators are minted; the students starting out life saddled with debt; the millions who’ll never be able to afford a home; and in honour of the National Health Service, soon to be dismantled further, but remaining the brightest light in the nation’s modern history. What a rotten, unfair and unbalanced society we’ve become.
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 13:12 - May 22 with 2098 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 13:06 - May 22 by TheChef |
You can bet your bottom dollar that if this was Labour, mainstream media would be crying out "Shambles, chaotic, not fit to govern," etc.
Because it's May and the Tories, I suppose it is seen as "pragmatic politics".
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Innit
To be fair so far the BBC are saying this is a complete U turn also the Mail are not happy as they backed her and now got egg on their faces
What's their headline going to be tomorrow
Osborne is ripping her in the Standard as well, revenge ?
Strong and Stable 
She needs to be taken out of the stable and out to grass [Post edited 22 May 2017 13:22]
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:44 - May 22 with 2007 views | R_from_afar |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 21:08 - May 20 by loftboy |
I'm a life long Tory voter, but having read it he manifestos I am seriously considering voting labour for the first time, only trouble is in Bracknell Dr Lee our MP (saw him in Sainsburys today) has a huge majority, he is rarely in the constituency and in nicknamed Dr Who, labour are putting up a candidate who is based locally and is working hard on his campaigning.seriously tempted |
I also live in the Bracknell area and I have to say that Dr Lee is a loathsome, arrogant, self-important, dismissive, uninformed b3ll end.
Leaving his politics to one side, here's why I dislike him so much:
- He publically rubbished pharmacists - many of whom work in the same organisation as him - calling them "pill counters". Unprofessional and ignorant simply doesn't cover such a brainless statement.
- He is very much against renewable energy, arguing - cough - that nuclear power is "affordable" and "dependable" and that the UK would "only" require 20 reactors. This is laughable because:
- Historically, the cost of nuclear power tends to rise over time whereas the cost of renewables tends to fall. Hinckley C, if the design can ever be built, will provide some of the world's most expensive energy whereas onshore wind power is now the UK's cheapest source of new energy. Then there's the estimated £70bn cost of cleaning up Sellafield...
- Nuclear power stations must be taken offline for an average of two days per month, for refuelling and maintenance, plus nuclear power stations in the UK have had to be shutdown temporarily due to problems with seaweed ingress. In the US, one plant had to be closed indefinitely due to a technical issue.
- Leaving the government's travails with Hinckley C to one side, the UK has only ever built 19 nuclear plants in all of history, so building 20 new ones might take a little while.
So, in a nutshell, please don't vote for that tw@t.
RFA |  |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:57 - May 22 with 1982 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 13:12 - May 22 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
Innit
To be fair so far the BBC are saying this is a complete U turn also the Mail are not happy as they backed her and now got egg on their faces
What's their headline going to be tomorrow
Osborne is ripping her in the Standard as well, revenge ?
Strong and Stable
She needs to be taken out of the stable and out to grass [Post edited 22 May 2017 13:22]
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She got a bit of a savaging during the Q&A to be fair. Michael Crick called her "weak and wobbly", and even everyone's favourite Tory shill Laura Kuenssberg called her out on being dishonest.
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:04 - May 22 with 1970 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
I know anecdotal evidence means the square root of FA, but this is the first election where i've canvassed and some lifelong Tory voters have told me they are voting Labour (this is my third one)
Not many mind but still the first time i've ever encountered it.
Pissed off Tories usually don't vote and occasionally go Lib Dem in my experience.
I'd also add (sorry Norf) that the 'Corbyn is unelectable' mantra has dried up in the last month.
I still expect a Tory majority despite the recent swing to Labour, but I don't think it will be as big as 100 seats like some are predicting.
Lets see! |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:10 - May 22 with 1953 views | Northernr |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:04 - May 22 by BazzaInTheLoft |
I know anecdotal evidence means the square root of FA, but this is the first election where i've canvassed and some lifelong Tory voters have told me they are voting Labour (this is my third one)
Not many mind but still the first time i've ever encountered it.
Pissed off Tories usually don't vote and occasionally go Lib Dem in my experience.
I'd also add (sorry Norf) that the 'Corbyn is unelectable' mantra has dried up in the last month.
I still expect a Tory majority despite the recent swing to Labour, but I don't think it will be as big as 100 seats like some are predicting.
Lets see! |
I said the opposition was so weak the Tories could propose free cigarettes to primary school children and still win. They've decided to give this a very thorough examination by taking away their lunches and telling the elderly they'll repossess their homes to pay for their end of life care. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:13 - May 22 with 1945 views | FDC |
Similar experiences re people saying they're now voting Labour.
And absolutely agree about the Corbyn factor. If, for example, they'd not voted for A50 like many wise heads demanded - well, look at the Lib Dems. Labour now polling higher than in the previous two elections, and higher still if you discount Scotland... (cheers Jim Murphy!).
It's been a good few days for Labour, and we may see further movement towards Labour in polls in the next few days which would makes things very interesting. However, no doubt the media onslaught will intensify as we get closer, and Tory campaigning will get more and more negative. May spent more time speaking about Corbyn today - she even said something bonkers about Corbyn wanted to dissolve the army I think?!
It's a long way to go and we may be seeing the Labour high-point, but it's going to be interesting. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:19 - May 22 with 1928 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:10 - May 22 by Northernr |
I said the opposition was so weak the Tories could propose free cigarettes to primary school children and still win. They've decided to give this a very thorough examination by taking away their lunches and telling the elderly they'll repossess their homes to pay for their end of life care. |
This "weak opposition" line is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and is at odds with actual vote share within a historical context. The Tories are polling higher than they have done for years because of the UKIP collapse. | | | |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - May 22 with 1919 views | Northernr |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:19 - May 22 by FDC |
This "weak opposition" line is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and is at odds with actual vote share within a historical context. The Tories are polling higher than they have done for years because of the UKIP collapse. |
We'll see. One thing I am mystified by is why anybody is paying much attention to polls, why polls are still news - I mean, did we learn nothing from the last two years? | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:27 - May 22 with 1899 views | JamesB1979 |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - May 22 by Northernr |
We'll see. One thing I am mystified by is why anybody is paying much attention to polls, why polls are still news - I mean, did we learn nothing from the last two years? |
If you look at the polls historically, Tories tend to do better on election day than in the polls. Main reason being that people don't like admitting they're a Tory. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:27 - May 22 with 1899 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - May 22 by Northernr |
We'll see. One thing I am mystified by is why anybody is paying much attention to polls, why polls are still news - I mean, did we learn nothing from the last two years? |
You can Poll people all day about who they want to vote for, but we can't predict who will actually get off their arses and put the cross in the box.
The Leave vote won the day because they wanted it more. Same with Trump.
My hope for Labour is an increased turnout because of lapsed Labour support coming alive again, and the lost Labour (like you Norf I presume) hold their noses and vote for Corbyn anyway rather than the Tories. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:30 - May 22 with 1890 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:27 - May 22 by JamesB1979 |
If you look at the polls historically, Tories tend to do better on election day than in the polls. Main reason being that people don't like admitting they're a Tory. |
Apparently pollsters are factoring that in this year - I don't know what that means exactly, but presumably the weighting accounts for a shy-Tory factor. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:31 - May 22 with 1886 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - May 22 by Northernr |
We'll see. One thing I am mystified by is why anybody is paying much attention to polls, why polls are still news - I mean, did we learn nothing from the last two years? |
Speaking personally it's because I'm an addict. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:32 - May 22 with 1879 views | JamesB1979 |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:30 - May 22 by FDC |
Apparently pollsters are factoring that in this year - I don't know what that means exactly, but presumably the weighting accounts for a shy-Tory factor. |
I didn't know that. And, as you say how do they do it? However, should make them more accurate you would hope! | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:33 - May 22 with 1873 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:27 - May 22 by BazzaInTheLoft |
You can Poll people all day about who they want to vote for, but we can't predict who will actually get off their arses and put the cross in the box.
The Leave vote won the day because they wanted it more. Same with Trump.
My hope for Labour is an increased turnout because of lapsed Labour support coming alive again, and the lost Labour (like you Norf I presume) hold their noses and vote for Corbyn anyway rather than the Tories. |
There's a lot of chat about this massive youth turn out that is going to swings things in Labour's favour. One concern I have about this is that - in the same way that the Labour collapse in Wales can be accounted for in part by the migration of young people to urban areas - even if several million more young people turn up and vote Labour, it may be in safe urban Labour seats...
For me even a small swing in the grey vote could be more important. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:35 - May 22 with 1864 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:32 - May 22 by JamesB1979 |
I didn't know that. And, as you say how do they do it? However, should make them more accurate you would hope! |
They've always used weighting to account for young people not turning up etc, so presumably they've looked at the difference between polling and actual votes and adjusted their polls accordingly. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:44 - May 22 with 1838 views | robith |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - May 22 by Northernr |
We'll see. One thing I am mystified by is why anybody is paying much attention to polls, why polls are still news - I mean, did we learn nothing from the last two years? |
2 things on polls - first national polling is pretty much irrelevant in a plurality constituency system. In 2015 the final poll was well within a statistical margin of error to actual popular vote
Final poll vs final result
C -3.8%
L+1.8%
LD -0.9%
UKIP -0.1%
G -1.2%
Other +0.3%
There were 222 seats where there was a swing from Cons to Lab and around 120 that had the reverse.
But - Labour lose tons of seats in Scotland because of the concentration in SNP vote post referendum, and the Lib Dem collapse led to a swing of 27 seats to the Tories and pretty similar popular vote figures give you a Tory majority. IIRC Labour needed a swing from the Tories of 3% and got around 1.5%, but there was a c.30% swing from Lib Dem to Tories.
Which also gives us the big thing behind this election - UKIP were second in more Tory seats than Labour and have basically swallowed their vote, and the failure of the Lib Dems to bounce back means the Tories will probably keep the south west |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:48 - May 22 with 1826 views | Phildo |
I think they will go very negative on Corbyn now. The strategy up till now was let the voters take a good look at him then they will decide they don't like him. It has not worked so they will need to tell us all how bad he is. Pictures of him and Gerry Adams from here on in.
Most postal votes go this week and that is a lot of the elderly hence the dramatic U turn this morning. Spent a lot of her political capitol in one day and she needed all of that for some of the bad news she will have to impart over the Brexit negotiations over the next couple of years. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:49 - May 22 with 1814 views | CamberleyR |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:51 - May 22 with 1804 views | robith |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:48 - May 22 by Phildo |
I think they will go very negative on Corbyn now. The strategy up till now was let the voters take a good look at him then they will decide they don't like him. It has not worked so they will need to tell us all how bad he is. Pictures of him and Gerry Adams from here on in.
Most postal votes go this week and that is a lot of the elderly hence the dramatic U turn this morning. Spent a lot of her political capitol in one day and she needed all of that for some of the bad news she will have to impart over the Brexit negotiations over the next couple of years. |
Obviously I'm biased, and even I have the greatest achievement to be to keep Con to a 40 odd majority to make May look a bit silly, but man alive she was falling apart on TV today, absolutely coming loose at the seams.
But yeah, it's going to be nothing but IRA from here on in | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:57 - May 22 with 1784 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:51 - May 22 by robith |
Obviously I'm biased, and even I have the greatest achievement to be to keep Con to a 40 odd majority to make May look a bit silly, but man alive she was falling apart on TV today, absolutely coming loose at the seams.
But yeah, it's going to be nothing but IRA from here on in |
You can certainly see why they've kept her away from TV debates. She is - inexplicably - very popular apparently, and Tory strategists clearly think she's their big asset: the campaign is all about contrasting her to Corbyn, but in an extremely carefully managed way.
So it'll be interesting if this minor slide in the polls carries on and they decide they need to wheel her out more often... Looking forward to next Monday's televised Q&A with Corbyn on Sky. [Post edited 22 May 2017 15:58]
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:02 - May 22 with 1769 views | robith |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:57 - May 22 by FDC |
You can certainly see why they've kept her away from TV debates. She is - inexplicably - very popular apparently, and Tory strategists clearly think she's their big asset: the campaign is all about contrasting her to Corbyn, but in an extremely carefully managed way.
So it'll be interesting if this minor slide in the polls carries on and they decide they need to wheel her out more often... Looking forward to next Monday's televised Q&A with Corbyn on Sky. [Post edited 22 May 2017 15:58]
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Especially as Sky, bizarrely, are being very critical of May's handling of the media | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:03 - May 22 with 1765 views | ElHoop |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:51 - May 22 by robith |
Obviously I'm biased, and even I have the greatest achievement to be to keep Con to a 40 odd majority to make May look a bit silly, but man alive she was falling apart on TV today, absolutely coming loose at the seams.
But yeah, it's going to be nothing but IRA from here on in |
She certainly was looking very ragged earlier - still rambling on about Strong and Stable leadership whilst the ship was letting in water. How or why she blamed Corbyn for this mess I'll never know.
She'll need to get her ducks lined up pretty quick as she has a nice little session with old Brillo at 7.00pm. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:12 - May 22 with 1747 views | TacticalR |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - May 22 by Northernr |
We'll see. One thing I am mystified by is why anybody is paying much attention to polls, why polls are still news - I mean, did we learn nothing from the last two years? |
I agree that there is something very wrong with conventional polling. Last week on BBC Business Daily there was interesting interview with the CEO of a small firm in South Africa that correctly predicted the Brexit and Trump results:
'JP Kloppers explains how his small software firm in Cape Town BrandsEye correctly predicted both the Brexit vote in the UK and the election of Donald Trump where others failed.'
Slaves To The Algorithm?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p052cpy9
His firm monitors social media, and then uses paid crowdsourcing to interpret the results.
'Despite much publicised recent advances in AI (artificial intelligence), understanding human sentiment accurately remains beyond the reach of machines. In particular, social media is rife with sarcasm, implied and hidden meanings, abbreviated phrases, swearing, innuendo and a host of other complications. Reading humour is certainly beyond the reach of an algorithm. As a result BrandsEye have adopted a crowdsourcing approach in which contributors around the world tackled microtasks of correctly assigning sentiment to the candidates (for or against) in return for micropayments - an approach which leads to accuracy levels in the upper nineties.'
How BrandsEye analysed the US Elections
https://www.brandseye.com/news/how-brandseye-analysed-the-us-elections/
It's mentioned in Tim Shipman's book that the Leavers had much more accurate polling data (however that was obtained) than the Remainers throughout the Brexit campaign. |  |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:20 - May 22 with 1724 views | DannytheR |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:51 - May 22 by robith |
Obviously I'm biased, and even I have the greatest achievement to be to keep Con to a 40 odd majority to make May look a bit silly, but man alive she was falling apart on TV today, absolutely coming loose at the seams.
But yeah, it's going to be nothing but IRA from here on in |
Yep, IRA all over the Mail and Telegraph from here till the election day. That's what they pay Lynton Crosby all that money for.
Although again, this will mean little to younger voters. Anyone in their 20s or even early 30s will have been a kid at the time of the Good Friday Agreement.
Might well also stir up anti-Irish feeling in certain places, sadly, but then May has already proved herself quite happy to start fires if she thinks she can get a few votes out of it. |  | | |
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