| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 10:25 - Sep 16 with 15391 views | robith |
Hello fellow travellers of the night.
You may remember this thread from last year where I tried to create a way of seeing our chances of survival (aside from the brief fortnight we thought we were gonna make the play offs). I had planned to bring it back, and had some nice feedback that people wanted to see it again. Now we've played 15% of our game it feels robust enough to have a look
Also, others made great contributions too, so maybe this could be a catch all stats thread
From last year - "So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen."
So in summary - 100 equals standard. Above 100 = good, below 100=bad
I've taken the average points for the last 5 years. Play offs = 76.2. Survival = 46.6
Survival: 191
Play Offs: 117
Interestingly though when we look at vs the same results last year (so discounting Hudd & Luton) we have 9 points vs last year's 10. I've built this in this year so will keep monitoring it.
Encouraging start. 28% of points for survival accomplished already.
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:45 - Jun 10 with 1780 views | robith |
So I actually posted on the old thread that this was abandoned as I had my laptop stolen.
Well. I've had some time on my hands so I've rebuilt it.
Not at full capacity yet but some thought food before the season recommences
Play off index of 0.85.
Sorry to be the bearer of ill tidings but it will take quite something to reach the play offs
I'll add a chart after the first game back tracking vs current 6th's progress
Historical trends would suggest we need 25 points to make the play offs - 2.27 points per game remaining
PNE currently in 6th's trajectory is to 69 (nice) points however - still 1.7 per game. Punchy
Our forecast points on current trajectory vs last year league finish spell the challenge
With the caveat last year's 6 and 7th had higher PPG than the current occupants
On a positive note for the season though, we're only a point away from matching last year's total
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:49 - Jun 10 with 1776 views | robith |
Oh I'll add a chart next week tracking us vs current 6th | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 15:49 - Jun 10 with 1705 views | kensalriser |
# Team M. W. D. L. Goals Dif. Pt.
1 Leeds United Leeds United 46 28 10 8 78:38 40 94
2 West Bromwich Albion 46 25 16 5 83:47 36 91
3 Fulham FC Fulham FC 46 23 14 9 70:49 21 83
4 Brentford FC Brentford FC 46 23 11 12 83:44 39 80
5 Nottingham Forest 46 21 15 10 63:49 14 78
6 Queens Park Rangers 46 20 10 16 74:70 4 70
7 Bristol City Bristol City 46 18 16 12 64:62 2 70 |  |
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