The old adage is that football is a game of two halves, but for this season it is very much the case that there are three distinct periods.

Saints travel to Aston Villa to complete what is the first third of the season in terms of the Premier League programme, of course you can only play what you have in front of you, but the reality is that the first 12 games of the season on paper at least is easier than the next dozen games coming up.

Our rivals will be looking at us and expecting us to blow up at any moment, but they might well be disappointed.

First though we need to complete the last of the opening dozen at Villa Park tonight and we need to finish that with a flourish to set us up nicely for the 2nd V 3rd visit of Manchester City to St Mary's next Sunday.

This will be the first of 12 games that will truly shape our season, in that time we will have played Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal twice, Manchester United twice, as well as top five hopefuls Newcastle, Swansea and Everton, that then leaves just Burnley and Palace away from the bottom half of the table.

Its a run of fixtures that when completed in the first week of February will see us either really being taken notice of as top five contenders or our detractors telling us they told us so.

However its all about coming through this tranche of games with a good number of points, so far before tonight's game against Villa we have averaged 2.27 points per game which is phenomenal, repeat that in the next couple of months and we will almost certainly finish top four, however the reality is that is going to be near on impossible.

What is possible though is to look at what we should be targeting during this period, I would say this would be the ideal target

Man City 1 point
Arsenal 1 point
Man Utd 3 points
Burnley 3 points
Everton 3 points
Palace 3 points
Chelsea 1 points
Arsenal 3 points
Man Utd 1 point
Newcastle 1 point
Swansea 3 points

Total 23 points

If we achieved this then if we assumed we had beaten Villa that would see us on 51 points after 24 games, to put that in perspective last season that would have seen us in 4th spot although in fairness last seasons top four was high scoring in points compared to this one so far.

So having looked at what would be a great points total lets take a more pessimistic look.

Man City 0 point
Arsenal 1 point
Man Utd 1 points
Burnley 3 points
Everton 1 points
Palace 3 points
Chelsea 0 points
Arsenal 1 points
Man Utd 1 point
Newcastle 1 point
Swansea 3 points

Total 15 points

This is of course assuming we fall away a bit, last season in the same 12 game period we got 13 points, so 15 would be a light improvement.

That would again assuming 3 points at Aston Villa see us on 43 points after 24 games, again comparing to last season we were on 35 and 43 would have seen us in 7th although only four points of of 4th.

What this is telling us though is how crucial the December/January programme will be to us, if we can come through it there or thereabouts to the top four then there is no reason why we should not kick on in the third half of the season.

But first we have to beat Aston Villa and then we can look clearly at the up and coming dozen games after that, the key will be to take more points against the big clubs than we did last, perhaps the most crucial game of the next few weeks is Manchester United at home, I think City have the resources to pull clear of us, but if we can beat United then we will do them serious damage in their attempts to catch up with us.

It is all about concentrating on the 7 clubs who finished above us last season, wth luck we could be out of sight of Liverpool by the New Year and perhaps Spurs and Everton, that would leave it a five horse race for a top four finish, the more of the big clubs who implode the better because I feel they will be our challengers, we have a better squad and resources than with respect Newcastle, Swansea and West Ham, but the big clubs still have claws.

It is an exciting time though and if we get through it unscathed we will be stronger in February with the likes of J Rod and JWP back from injury and perhaps a signing or two in the transfer window.

Photo: Action Images

HoveSaint added 11:11 - Nov 24 That old adage about lies, damn lies and statistics come to mind reading this article, but fun to speculate. What we can take from the first 1/3rd of the season is that the usual suspects are finding the course tough (Chelsea and City apart) and the likes of us, Hammers and the Swans have taken full advantage. Form changes in all clubs as can be seen recently at both ends of the spectrum by Man U improving and Liverhampton getting a lot worst, but momentum is the biggest driver in any club and at any level and at the moment its certainly with Saints. But as the article states you can only play whats in front of you and I expect that very tight bunch from currently around 10th to 4th will chop and change as the season progresses, but the 6-10 point cushion we have should keep us out of that mess as the season progresses, bar injuries and melt down as we had last season (cant see that happening). The difference is that we have the points on the board and that cant be changed so assuming that we drop to even 1 point per game for the next 12, that still keeps us in the march at 37 points. I expect the top end of the league to look like this come the end of Jan Chelsea City Saints Man U Arsenal Everton Newcastle Swansea Chelsea should still have a 5-8 point lead with Saints 9-11 points behind them but still ahead of the chasing pack by 3-5 points. And the likes of Neville, Crooks and Lineker eating a lot of humble pie......... Love being a Saints Fan COYS!!!

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SaintDownUnder added 11:17 - Nov 24 The parallels with last season are uncanny, cracking start, however we struggled against 'big' teams..... I just hope the parellels stop as last season our form dropped and we struggled after the seven bouric Cruyff turns and the loss to Arsenal. I think you're right to be optimistic though Nick, not just because we have improved but also that Chelsea aside the Utd's, City's, Arsenals all look uncharistically shakey at the back. I also think we'll take the right mentality into these games, I get the sense that our confidence is genuine and that will help us get through the tough spells you face in the big games, But also take the game to these clubs and test their shakey defences. Around 18 points over this spell I reckon and sitting in 4th after the January transfer window...... Very much still in it :-)

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REEDYREEDOREEDZ added 12:44 - Nov 24 If we want to stay in the top four then we can't afford to lose to our rivals. Especially City, Arsenal and United in the coming games. Five points would be a great return from those three games, but the key is to avoid defeat. To state the obvious, if we lose to them then it guarantees that they'll gain 3 points on us, while if we draw then the other teams around us have to win in order to gain on us. Beat them and we're absolutely laughing. I fancy us against City too. They're beatable, especially away from the Etihad.

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davenbennett added 15:39 - Nov 24 Pre-season I consulted the old oracle, Mystic Smeg. She told me that we would end up with 67 points. This was pre the summer silly season, so before we sold/brought players. But Mystic has come up trumps and predictions have been uncanny, and on course to get 66 points. The next 12 games Mystic has down for 15 points, last 12, 25 points. Aston Villa Away W 3 Manchester City Home D 1 Arsenal Away L 0 Manchester United Home D 1 Burnley Away D 1 Everton Home D 1 Crystal Palace Away BOXING DAY W 3 Chelsea Home L 0 (36 points year-end) Arsenal Home D 1 Manchester United Away L 0 Newcastle United Away D 1 Swansea City Home W 3 Last 12 games Queens Park Rangers Away W 3 West Ham United Home W 3 Liverpool Home D 1 West Bromwich Albion Home W 3 Palace Home W 3 Chelsea Away L 0 Burnley Home D 1 Everton Away L 0 Hull City Home W 3 Stoke City Away L 0 Tottenham Hotspur Home W 3 Sunderland Away D 1 Leicester City Away D 1 Aston Villa Home W 3 Manchester City Away L 0 Last 12 games = 25 points Total pre- season prediction 67, revised total with games played = 66.

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