If Saints get 11 points from the last 10 games then they should be assured of 9th place, if they want higher then it has to be more.

Saints season has been a little up and down, it has been one of little runs some good and some bad, but now we stand on the cusp of a decent finish in the Premier League.

Undoubtably it has been a case of firstly playing the right team at the right times and secondly beating the right teams, in the case of the former if we look at the first ten games of last season, this term we have played 7 of those corresponding fixtures ( of the other 3 we have yet to play 2 and the 3rd was against a relegated club) last term we got four points out of those 7 games, this term we have gained 6 points, only slightly better, but because they werent all in the opening tranche of fixtures the poor results have been spread out.

In the case of the latter, of the top 11 clubs we have beaten only one, out of the 14 games played against them we have got only 8 points, a poor total, but the upshot is that be beating mainly teams in the bottom half, effectively they have been six pointers and kept them way behind us.

So for the final run in I predict we will need 11 points to finish in 9th place, very achievable, 3 wins and 2 draws would do it, this would not actually be very good form, just about escaping relegation form to be exact, so it should be achievable.

If we want to go higher and overtake Newcastle then we need to do much better, to do that I think we will need to win 5, with one of those needing to be against Newcastle themselves and throw in a couple of more draws.

On the face of it that is tough but achievable, at home we would have to beat Norwich, Newcastle & Cardiff, perhaps draw with Everton & Manchester United, away we have to start with beating Palace at the weekend and then win one more from the trips to Spurs, Man City, Villa and Swansea, again tough but achievable.

If we get those 17 points then I think we will stand a good chance of overhauling Newcastle, four points doesnt sound much but at this stage of the season its a gap that with every game that passes will get bigger unless we pull it back soon. This weekends results for the teams behind us did not damage us in our quest for the top ten and if four points at this stage is big then the eight points behind us and West Ham is huge, once you have a gap that in points is bigger than the games left then the task is even harder, thats our first task, win games and keep that gap intact, then our second is to try and haul back Newcastle.

sadly I think that higher than 8th is now nothing more than a pipe dream, United are 6 points clear of us, Everton 9, both with a game in hand, even if they both lost that game, I still think its a place too far.

So Saints now have to concentrate of a good finish to the season, it seems like an anti climax because at one time it looked to be much more promising and there is that feeling that we have thrown away our chance of a stab at glory and that makes it so much worse, what we have to do now is bring back that feel good factor for what has been a very good season in the league so far and as I have shown doesn't actually need us to do that much to make sure we finish where we are now.

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saintjeff52 added 08:39 - Mar 3 I need to snap out of my downbeat mood. I've posted that we'll only get 8 more points to season's end. This article strikes a more positive note, and I hope that I'm wrong, and the more reasonable total of 11 points can be achieved. Offering me 9th spot in July 2013, I'd have bee more than happy - 'Yes Please', an improvement on last season.
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OldRed added 12:27 - Mar 3 I think we'll do enough to claim 9th spot and no higher. But after all is said and done, it's been a good season on the whole, an improvement on last season, and it's a lot clearer on what we need to do to improve again come next season. I think we lost that winning mentality partly due to not having good enough players to back up our key players when they had injuries. Also by not going all out to win in the cup competitions didn't really help much seeing as we never came up against a decent side.

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SanMarco added 14:03 - Mar 3 Agree with the analysis - the reason I feel we will come 9th is that we have already gone into the end of season phase. Most, if not all, teams we play from now on have a lot more on it than us. Yes we are a better side than Palace as we are a better side than West Ham but those teams still have a lot to play for. Our season began its long wind-down when the final whistle sounded at the Stadium of Light a couple of weeks ago...

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ericofarabia added 16:46 - Mar 3 The inevitable 9th place, with a possibility of 8th ...... totally makes the surrender at Sunderland in both cups so much more acceptable ..... NOT!!
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ExiledSupporter added 18:01 - Mar 3 I suspect the gap between us in 9th and W Ham or whoever in tenth may narrow considerably unless Lambert, in particular, and others don't start to put away some of their chances more reliably and frequently!
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cheltenhamsaint added 18:20 - Mar 3 An interesting analysis, as usual, provoking healthy debate. I lean to the pragmatic rather than the emotional in my support of the Saints, so my take on it is 1. We finished 14th with 41 points last season. Finishing 9th with 50 points represents a 25% increase in performance on both counts. A very positive improvement in what is probably the most competitive league in the world, and I'm not claiming it is the best 2. This has been achieved playing some hugely attractive football, though not always effective I accept (one national reporter wrote that the two best passing teams in the league fought out an enthralling encounter at St Marys) 3. At times we have fielded 8 English players and got 4 of them into the national squad this season alone 4. The first club ever to field three 18 year olds in a Premier league game (and we have done that several times this season) 5. Five academy players now regularly in the match day squad with a few more close to breaking through 6. Seventeen players on national duty this week (different countries, different age groups) 7. We reserved our worst performance of the season for an FA Cup tie and lost to poor opposition Obviously the last one completely wipes out points 1 to 6

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slynch added 18:49 - Mar 3 A very positive approach cheltenhamsaint. I would also like to add - how do people who whine-on about Saints' forwards underachieving, account for the fact that no one has scored more goals than Saints outside the top 4, bar Man U?
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WestSussexSaint added 07:51 - Mar 4 As with many things in football success is determined by expectation. It is likely Man U will finish ahead of Saints in the league but you would be hard pushed to find anyone saying they had a successful season as the minimum expectation was probably top 4. Based on most fans expectations at the start of the season 9th would have been seen as a success but a good start, unrealistic claims of champions league and a complete disregard for the FA cup has not helped managed those expectations. That is why the run in for Saints IS important. A big fall away and finishing outside the top 10 would now be seen as failure albeit it is still likely to be better than last seasons points total and position. It might also have a bearing on whether Poch stays or goes in the summer. Whatever happens the management will have to manage expectations for next season better than it was this time (admittedly NC isn't here now so it will be down to KL) as expectations will be greater for next season and they will be increasingly difficult to meet.

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