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An Australian professor of Data Analytics from Griffith University who predicted Trump’s first win, the Australian Federal Election(when all the polls said the opposite) and Brexit has called it - Trump will be re-elected for another 4 years. You heard it here first.
I'm amazed that Joe Biden stands even half a chance of getting elected after the information discovered on Hunter Biden's computer. The media majority have done a good job keeping the info off much of the internet but surely as election day gets closer, a lot more will be revealed.
The whole story has been revealed to be a fabrication. Classic Trump playbook a few weeks before the election. The fact that Fox News passed on the story due to there being no substance to it tells you all you need to know about this one. Move on >>>>
He was paying over 3/1 on betfair a few days ago and has been drifting in the odds despite the vast majority of bets going to Trump. Maybe the bookies have it wrong, we'll see, but drifting odds for someone being heavily backed is counter intuitive.
If Trump does win, then not only God help us all (he's far crazier then 4 years ago) but Everyone working for opinion poll organisations should be fired.
It will all get much worse if he wins again because it will make him and his supporters think that he is still doing a tremendous job.And he’ll have the victory to prove it. God help us all if he gets in again.
I recommend the 538 politics podcast if you want unbiased commentary on polling etc. They include conservative and liberal polling to arrive at their averages.
Some people will point to 2016 as a reason not to believe polls but important to note that the polls were more volatile back then (more undecided voters, uncertainty over Clinton and October surprises hit her hard) and the final result was within the margin of error given by 538.
In 2016, Trump had a c30% chance in the week of the election according to 538 which isn’t insurmountable. The polls this year have been fixed at a similar level (Biden ahead by 10%) for some time. This 10% gap also reflects the approval rating of Trump which has been in the low 40% for most of this year.
Again, I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win and stranger things have happened but it would take some turnaround from here.
Thanks again for the rec on the podcast, TIV.
Really enjoying it.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
It’s a good one and new episodes every day until the election. I also recommend watching Obama’s speech from yesterday that had Trump watching and live rage tweeting!
It's going to have to be pretty huge - turnout with early voting due to covid is already at 50% of 2016's total turnout
"Why do I get the feeling there’s one more surprise left ahead of the election and it’ll go in Trump’s favour? "
How about China fancying their chances of getting away with invading Taiwan*, and Trump retaliating by declaring war on Beijing. Then declaring a state of national emergency and cancelling the US elections?
(*Maybe encouraged by fake back-channel comms that the US won't interfere)
It will all get much worse if he wins again because it will make him and his supporters think that he is still doing a tremendous job.And he’ll have the victory to prove it. God help us all if he gets in again.
If he wins wonder if he will considered the two term rule
Last three polls on this aggregate site show Trump within 5 of the Popular Vote. And he only needs to get within 5 to be in with a chance of the gerrymandered Electoral Vote.
*Polling range for all three 22nd-25th Oct, so it captures a lot of postal votes.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
The Wall Street author and editor of Strategic Intelligence Jim Rickards says that even though the latest betting has Biden with a 65.8% chance of winning compared to a 34.2% for Trump, his models indicate that Trump will have a narrow win.
The Wall Street author and editor of Strategic Intelligence Jim Rickards says that even though the latest betting has Biden with a 65.8% chance of winning compared to a 34.2% for Trump, his models indicate that Trump will have a narrow win.
Last three polls on this aggregate site show Trump within 5 of the Popular Vote. And he only needs to get within 5 to be in with a chance of the gerrymandered Electoral Vote.
*Polling range for all three 22nd-25th Oct, so it captures a lot of postal votes.
The main route I can see for a Trump win is to take Pennsylvania (while holding Florida, Arizona etc) and the riots in Philadelphia might just help him do this. It would be ironic if the protestors hand Trump the election.
It’s still a long shot as Trump would need to win Arizona (Biden leading in polls), Florida (neck and neck), Texas (Trump marginally ahead), Georgia (Biden ahead) etc.
I’m curious to see what this high voter turnout means. I.e. does it favour Biden or Trump. Normally I’d say it’ll favour the challenger but hard to be sure with Trump.
He`s doing more to stabilise the middle east at this time than many world leaders would achieve in a life time.
Yeah, he's done a great job in the Middle-East unless you're a Palestinian, a Kurd or a Saudi dissident journalist. Normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE & Bahrain - the Holy Grail for US and European foreign policy. Remarkable. The Sudanese Government might not even have the authority to normalise relations with Israel.
Yeah, he's done a great job in the Middle-East unless you're a Palestinian, a Kurd or a Saudi dissident journalist. Normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE & Bahrain - the Holy Grail for US and European foreign policy. Remarkable. The Sudanese Government might not even have the authority to normalise relations with Israel.
In regards to Palestine, the work he`s doing with those others you mention is to hopefully put an end to more annexation of the west bank so it`s a, win win surely
Plus you missed of Saudi arabia, quite a big fish, i would say.
[Post edited 28 Oct 2020 15:56]
'You didn't know that was wrong, but now you do. If you do it again, I'll know you are doing it on purpose.'
The problem is, a huge percentage of the US population don't vote or only vote occasionally because they don't think politics affects them. By being disconnected they don't follow politics so haven't been paying attention. Many that do vote follow family/community traditions so they don't need to pay attention which only leaves a small percentage that are actually paying attention. That small percentage is growing for this election but there's a huge number of people that think Trump's done OK (because he says he has) so why not carry on? It goes without saying that most Trump supporters also haven't been paying attention.
In regards to Palestine, the work he`s doing with those others you mention is to hopefully put an end to more annexation of the west bank so it`s a, win win surely
Plus you missed of Saudi arabia, quite a big fish, i would say.
[Post edited 28 Oct 2020 15:56]
Well, I'm not sure that shifting the US embassy to Jerusalem does a lot for Palestinians. And as below, Netanyahu himself has said that further annexation is simply paused at the moment as part of the normalisation process:
"In a TV address Mr Netanyahu said he had "delayed" West Bank annexation plans, but those plans remain "on the table". Annexation would make some West Bank areas officially part of Israel.
"There is no change in my plan to apply our sovereignty to Judea and Samaria [West Bank] in full co-ordination with the US. I'm committed to it. That hasn't changed. I remind you that I was the one who put the issue of sovereignty over Judea and Samaria on the table. This issue remains on the table," he said."
He's made things happen in the middle east, whether that's positive progress or not is in the eye of the beholder. But certainly you can't use "he's done nothing" against him
I'm not against what he's trying to do in China either though his methods are a bit aggressive for my tastes and again you can question whether the US is "winning" from those deals
Where i have a major issues with Trump is how he incites division and hatred within the population, which has brought the entire country to boiling point. Politics is an absolute joke and while he promised to "drain the swamp" and as a non politician some people thought he'd be best places to do that, instead he's presiding over not only seismic divisions in the country but the most partisan Senate in history. It's more of a political game now than it's ever been, gone are the days of senators voting for what they believe in (regardless of political affiliation) and instead everything is just along party lines.
Take the recent supreme court confirmation. Democrats never really gave her a chance. And Republicans would have voted for anyone who was nominated without a single question. It's a joke. And Trump is the main instigator of all of it.
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