If Saints get 11 points from the last 10 games then they should be assured of 9th place, if they want higher then it has to be more.
Saints season has been a little up and down, it has been one of little runs some good and some bad, but now we stand on the cusp of a decent finish in the Premier League.
Undoubtably it has been a case of firstly playing the right team at the right times and secondly beating the right teams, in the case of the former if we look at the first ten games of last season, this term we have played 7 of those corresponding fixtures ( of the other 3 we have yet to play 2 and the 3rd was against a relegated club) last term we got four points out of those 7 games, this term we have gained 6 points, only slightly better, but because they werent all in the opening tranche of fixtures the poor results have been spread out.
In the case of the latter, of the top 11 clubs we have beaten only one, out of the 14 games played against them we have got only 8 points, a poor total, but the upshot is that be beating mainly teams in the bottom half, effectively they have been six pointers and kept them way behind us.
So for the final run in I predict we will need 11 points to finish in 9th place, very achievable, 3 wins and 2 draws would do it, this would not actually be very good form, just about escaping relegation form to be exact, so it should be achievable.
If we want to go higher and overtake Newcastle then we need to do much better, to do that I think we will need to win 5, with one of those needing to be against Newcastle themselves and throw in a couple of more draws.
On the face of it that is tough but achievable, at home we would have to beat Norwich, Newcastle & Cardiff, perhaps draw with Everton & Manchester United, away we have to start with beating Palace at the weekend and then win one more from the trips to Spurs, Man City, Villa and Swansea, again tough but achievable.
If we get those 17 points then I think we will stand a good chance of overhauling Newcastle, four points doesnt sound much but at this stage of the season its a gap that with every game that passes will get bigger unless we pull it back soon. This weekends results for the teams behind us did not damage us in our quest for the top ten and if four points at this stage is big then the eight points behind us and West Ham is huge, once you have a gap that in points is bigger than the games left then the task is even harder, thats our first task, win games and keep that gap intact, then our second is to try and haul back Newcastle.
sadly I think that higher than 8th is now nothing more than a pipe dream, United are 6 points clear of us, Everton 9, both with a game in hand, even if they both lost that game, I still think its a place too far.
So Saints now have to concentrate of a good finish to the season, it seems like an anti climax because at one time it looked to be much more promising and there is that feeling that we have thrown away our chance of a stab at glory and that makes it so much worse, what we have to do now is bring back that feel good factor for what has been a very good season in the league so far and as I have shown doesn't actually need us to do that much to make sure we finish where we are now.