Those of us who prayed only for QPR to still be in with a shout of staying up come the end of the season have their wish. Sadly that final day fixture at Manchester City has a look of the impossible about it.
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Amazing really, that 20 teams can play 37 league matches over the course of nine months and leave so much to be undecided in that final thirty eighth game.
I’m struggling to recall a conclusion to a season where so much remains up in the air. The top two are separated by goals alone, and either can still win the championship this weekend. Below them from third to fifth three teams compete for two places in next season’s Champions League, assuming Chelsea don’t win in Munich next week of course. And then there’s our little situation down at the bottom of the table.
Queens Park Rangers and Bolton; for one salvation awaits, for the other a worrying trip to see the bank manager on Monday morning. It’s customary to throw one’s hands in the air at this point and, with a hefty slab of hindsight, declare that it was always likely to come down to these two teams in this situation, but to be honest on this occasion that does actually apply.
Clint Hill’s ghost goal at the Reebok Stadium that would have given Rangers a first half lead against Wanderers and quite probably demoralised them into what would have turned out to be a twelfth home defeat of the campaign, has looked more and more crucial as the weeks have gone by. Had it been allowed and Rangers drawn they’d now have 38 points and be safe, Bolton would have 34 and be down. Talk to me about Djibril Cisse’s goal being offside that day as well if you must, but everybody knows that if linesman Bob Pollock wasn’t an incompetent fucktard QPR would more than likely have gone on to win that match. What people forget is Rangers should have had an equalising penalty in injury time as well. Nobody gets relegated on the back of one poor performance or refereeing decision, it’s decided over the course of a whole season, but by God Mr Pollock has had more influence on this than most.
The injustice of that match makes all the “I hope Bolton stay up for Muamba” sentiment washing around this week rather sickening. News flash, Muamba is alright. Not dead. Walking around. Get over it.
Of course QPR’s long, drawn out campaign of farce began with a heavy home defeat against Bolton at Loftus Road. A dreadful summer of preparation is at the root of everything bad that has happened at Rangers this season, something for which Flavio Briatore, and to some extent, Neil Warnock must answer to. Briatore was too pig headed to realise how he was devaluing his asset by not allowing any team strengthening to take place until the very last throws of the transfer window, and Warnock, for a man who claimed to have been waiting for another chance in the Premiership for years, bought poor players before and after the arrival of Tony Fernandes. We’ve been behind the eight ball ever since and I dare say had you told people after that Bolton match that come the final day we’ be fourth bottom and two points above Wanderers with it technically in our hands going into the last match they’d have been very happy with that.
It’s just such a shame that last match is at Eastlands where champions elect Man City have won 17 and drawn one of their 18 home matches this season. City have, down the years, specialised in monumental cock ups almost as much as the Super Hoops have and I’ve no doubt those in the home end slightly longer in the tooth will go expecting a bumpier ride than it really should be. But it’s in QPR’s hands in name only, in reality this will all be decided at Stoke where Bolton go sporting an away record far superior to their home and Stoke have been pretty awful since the turn of the year.
Throw in QPR legend and former R’s striker Peter Crouch who are both involved at Stoke, Jon Walters who now plays up front for the Potters after being turfed out of Bolton into the lower leagues as a junior, a trio of former Man City players and an embittered ex-manager of theirs in the QPR ranks and there’s certainly no shortage of plot lines to potentially play out here.
During the summer, with the sun at its height, my dad used to take himself off on 15 mile runs in the middle of the day. You could fry an egg on the guy’s head. My granddad would look up over his newspaper occasionally and mutter about it being “savage amusement.” Something that’s meant to be pleasurable, a hobby, something to do away from work, a stress reliever, something to relax you and make you feel better about yourself turned into a horrendous ordeal for the sheer hell of it. There will be no pleasure in Sunday. There will be 90 minutes of mental agony and then either relief or despondency.
This is supposed to be a hobby, a pass time, a pleasurable pursuit. It’s not meant to eat away at your every thought and prevent you sleeping. Bloody football team. Whatever happens I have no doubt we’ll be turning to each other at the end of it all and saying: “Typical QPR.”
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Team News: QPR have an ill-timed crisis in a middle of midfield. Samba Diakite has still not recovered from the virus which ruled him out of the Chelsea and Stoke games – all rather odd considering he attended last weekend’s match and seemed fine by all accounts – and of course Ale Faurlin is a long term absentee. Shaun Derry has a dead leg and Akos Buzsaky a tight hamstring leaving only Joey Barton as a fully fit central midfield option for Mark Hughes. Elsewhere he must decide whether Djibril Cisse’s late winner against Stoke is enough to earn him a start. Expect the same back four.
City are at full strength with the only decision surrounding the involvement of Mario Balotelli, removed from the starting 11 after his poor behaviour and sending off in their last defeat at Arsenal and not even on the bench for last week’s trip to Newcastle.
Elsewhere: Obviously the game that matters most to QPR fans is Stoke v Bolton where anything other than a win for the visitors will keep Rangers in the Premier League for next season. Bolton have to win and hope QPR lose to stay up. For our opponents Man City it’s all eyes on the Stadium of Light where Sunderland, and a clutch of former Man Utd players, will face United. Alex Ferguson’s team must better City’s result against Rangers to win the title.
The final two Champions League places (assuming Chelsea lose in Munich and there are indeed two places) will belong to Arsenal if they match the results of the teams below them at West Brom. Spurs and Newcastle are the chasing pack, the former host Fulham and the latter goes to Everton. Everything else is a dead rubber although Liverpool will be keen to finish with a win at Swansea and overtake cross city rivals Everton on the league ladder right at the death.
Referee: Mike Dean is the man in the middle for this crucial game. He was in charge of Rangers for their home win against Arsenal and away defeat at Blackburn in the league this season, but attracted most criticism for his handling of our FA Cup game with Chelsea when he bought Daniel Sturridge’s obvious dive and awarded a match deciding penalty. For a full case file please click here.
Man City: City haven’t won the title for 44 years, and when they last did so it was sealed on the last day thanks in part to a Man Utd defeat against Sunderland. While the Sky Blues have made a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory down the years a run of 17 home wins and one draw from 18 matches this season suggests disaster is unlikely here, especially given QPR’s lousy away record which we shall reflect upon shortly. The last team to win here in the league was Everton on December 20, 2010, some 28 matches ago although Manchester United and Liverpool have won here in cup competitions this term. City have kept more clean sheets (17) than any other team in the league and have not conceded in the first 15 minutes of a Premiership match yet this campaign.
QPR: It’s often the inability to win away from home that does for newly promoted teams – Burnley and Norwich have both been relegated previously without a single away success to their names despite impressive home records – but for QPR that didn’t initially seem like it was going to be a problem. They won three of their first six road matches this season and climbed as high as ninth in the table after a 3-2 win at Stoke in November. Sadly since then in 12 road trips they’ve drawn two and lost ten, culminating in a 6-1 defeat at Chelsea last time out. Rangers had a reasonable record in the latter days of Maine Road, although they had to wait until 1995 for their first ever win there in Les Ferdinand’s last game for the club. They lost two of their final seven trips to that ground but have never played at Eastlands. Rangers have had more players sent off this season than anybody else (eight) and are just one red card short of Sunerland’s 2010 record of nine in a season. They have had a league record six players sent off in home matches. Rangers are currently operating on a win at home and lose away alternating pattern and have done so for the last nine matches. If it continues with a defeat here they’re relying on Bolton failing to win at Stoke.
Stoke: Tony Pulis’ side have scored just 34 goals this season, the worst record in the entire Football League. They have scored just 12 times in open play all season and only three of those have come in the second half of the season. They have failed to score in 13 fixtures this season including last week against QPR and the reverse fixture with Bolton which they lost 5-0. They have won just one of their last ten matches. Last season they lost their final home game of the season to Wigan who needed to win to survive and since joining the Premiership they have lost all three of their final fixtures, conceding nine and scoring just once in the process. They have however been resolute at home this season, holding Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City to draws and losing just four times. They’re unbeaten in six home matches. They have conceded just 18 goals at the Britannia Stadium (six to Newcastle and QPR combined) which is one goal better than Man Utd’s record at Old Trafford. Pulis’ team has managed just 135 shots on goal in the league this season, 60 worse than anybody else, and just 84 have been on target which is less than two and a half saves a game for opposition goalkeepers on average. Stoke have played 56 games in a season that has taken them to the far flung corners of Europe and the FA Cup quarter finals but can match their best ever Premiership finish with a win.
Bolton: For Bolton the home form has been the problem. They blew a two goal lead at the death against West Brom last weekend to leave them with just four home wins and 11 defeats this season – the division’s worst home record apart from Wolves. Away from home they’ve kept themselves afloat with six victories – three more than QPR and Villa, four more than Wolves and Blackburn. They have won two (at Villa and Wolves) and drawn one (Sunderland) of their last four road trips this season but have won only one of their last seven matches overall. Since Stoke returned to the top flight Bolton have won one and lost two of three visits to this ground. The last two meetings between these two have finished 5-0 – the latter one of only 16 games Bolton haven’t lost since Stoke drubbed them by the same scoreline in last season’s FA Cup semi final. They’ve lost 27 of 43 games since then. Bolton have kept just three clean sheets all season and conceded at least once in their last 14 games but they have won seven and drawn three of the games in which they’ve scored first – an unbeaten record when opening the scoring.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding is bottling it…
Last week, I said it didn't get much bigger than the game against Stoke but I can use the same terminology again here because in terms of finances and the potential future growth of our wonderful club, it is fair to say that Sunday is possibly the most important date in Rangers history. I was two minutes away from being proved right last week as I had tipped a Bolton win and a QPR v Stoke draw. I have never been more pleased to be wrong. I won’t go into big statistical detail this week. We all know Man City are excellent at home and we are terrible away. A lot of optimistic talk is that of Man City struggling under the pressure. However, this Man City team are full of players who have played at World Cup Finals, FA Cup finals, Euro and African Nations championships etc. I don't see pressure being a massive issue.
The one fact I will throw at you is I have read a fair bit of talk about 'If we can keep it tight for the first half, who knows??' The simple fact is since the turn of the year, QPR have failed to keep a single first half clean sheet. Man City on the other hand have only failed to score at home in the first half twice in the league during the same period and those games were against Chelsea and Tottenham in which Man City went on to win.
I think deep down we all expect our fate lies at the Britannia. So onto that game… Stoke wont roll over. They didn't roll over last week at Loftus Road and they most certainly won’t roll over at home. Pulis is under a touch of pressure from the Potters faithful at present and his troops will be up for this in front of a big crowd. It was not well taken alongside the River Trent when Wigan came and celebrated the great escape last year on their patch and they don't want it happening again. That said, I think it will be close and nervy. The loss of Wheater is a big blow for Bolton and this will hinder them. For Stoke I believe Peter Crouch will be very much up for this game for many reasons that don't need going into once again. Also Ricardo Fuller is at the end of his contract and will want to sign off with a bang if it is to be his swansong game. I'm not getting involved in predictions for this game. It’s going to be tight and nervy enough.
For my bet of the weekend, I am recommending a bet on Wolves to win at Wigan and end their very poor season on a good note. Wigan assured safety with a win over a lacklustre Blackburn on Monday and then had their s end of season awards night on Wednesday. I think they may still be in party mood and therefore think a small bet on Wolves to win at the DW at a general price of 5/1 is the bet.
Bet of weekend - Wolves to beat Wigan - 5/1 generally.
Prediction: Well I’ve been saying since Blackburn away I fancy us to be relegated so I’ll stick with it in the hope that this prediction is as accurate as all of my others. I think we’ll lose, I fancy Bolton to win.
City and Bolton win double pays £31.72 for a £10 stake
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