| Irish General Election 15:42 - Feb 9 with 16840 views | BrianMcCarthy |
Seismic shift to the left in Ireland today.
Exit polls suggesting that left parties are heading for 45% of the vote.
So many fascinating issues arising now:
Are Sinn Féin now on a par with the right-wing monoliths of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?
Will either of them get into coalition-bed with Sinn Féin?
Can Sinn Féin be trusted in Government?
Have Sinn Féin left violence behind?
Will Ireland, could Ireland, actually have a Left-Wing Government in the near future?
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| Irish General Election on 10:02 - Feb 11 with 1819 views | BrianMcCarthy |
One thing is for sure - this is good news for Ireland.
We may or may not like the next Government, but we have the shake-up we have dreamed of for decades. It's now conceivable that we could arrive at a left-right aligned Dáil rather than a right-right one. I'm not sure what way it will go in the next 5-10 years, but we have an opportunity at last for a more responsive and accountable political system.
FF-FG are at their lowest ever levels and FF, FG and Labour all produced results in their bottom three of all time.
As my friend said yesterday - "if you're shocked by this, or upset by it - you've been one of the lucky few who wasn't fugged over by the last recession". | |
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| Irish General Election on 10:17 - Feb 11 with 1797 views | MrSheen |
UK and Irish public spending per head are pretty similar. Public spending is 20% higher in Northern Ireland and the revenue raised per head more than 20% below the UK average. Transferring that burden to a country one tenth of the size will be a big shock. No doubt Mary Lou will be able to persuade the people of Bulgaria and Slovakia to give generously. |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 10:18 - Feb 11 with 1796 views | MrSheen |
| Irish General Election on 10:02 - Feb 11 by BrianMcCarthy |
One thing is for sure - this is good news for Ireland.
We may or may not like the next Government, but we have the shake-up we have dreamed of for decades. It's now conceivable that we could arrive at a left-right aligned Dáil rather than a right-right one. I'm not sure what way it will go in the next 5-10 years, but we have an opportunity at last for a more responsive and accountable political system.
FF-FG are at their lowest ever levels and FF, FG and Labour all produced results in their bottom three of all time.
As my friend said yesterday - "if you're shocked by this, or upset by it - you've been one of the lucky few who wasn't fugged over by the last recession". |
Write that down, Brian, keep it in a safe place. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 10:37 - Feb 11 with 1763 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 10:18 - Feb 11 by MrSheen |
Write that down, Brian, keep it in a safe place. |
Ha!
I'm not predicting that SF will get in, or that if they did they would be a success economically. I'm looking beyond that short-term possibility.
With FF/FG down to 45% the Irish electorate have what we've needed for decades. It's up to them now to make the most of the next 5-10 years and make Irish politics about policies. Finally.
To quote an old book "the blood is up, what it is up to, no-one yet knows". | |
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| Irish General Election on 10:38 - Feb 11 with 1759 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 10:17 - Feb 11 by MrSheen |
UK and Irish public spending per head are pretty similar. Public spending is 20% higher in Northern Ireland and the revenue raised per head more than 20% below the UK average. Transferring that burden to a country one tenth of the size will be a big shock. No doubt Mary Lou will be able to persuade the people of Bulgaria and Slovakia to give generously. |
I wouldn't get excited. It's years away yet. | |
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| Irish General Election on 11:01 - Feb 11 with 1723 views | ElHoop |
| Irish General Election on 22:01 - Feb 10 by robith |
Correct.
If you ever get a chance to visit, Donegal is a beautiful place. Partly because partition cut it off from everywhere, but it's eerily remote. Some cracking local boozers and wild coastline |
I've never been up that way at all. Any time I've ever been to Ireland it always takes ages to travel around, so I'd imagine that a weekend wouldn't be long enough to get anywhere much up there? |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 11:13 - Feb 11 with 1714 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| Irish General Election on 10:17 - Feb 11 by MrSheen |
UK and Irish public spending per head are pretty similar. Public spending is 20% higher in Northern Ireland and the revenue raised per head more than 20% below the UK average. Transferring that burden to a country one tenth of the size will be a big shock. No doubt Mary Lou will be able to persuade the people of Bulgaria and Slovakia to give generously. |
Economic arguments in regards to sovereignty are always trumped by Emotional ones. We more than anyone should know this. |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 11:58 - Feb 11 with 1674 views | MrSheen |
| Irish General Election on 11:13 - Feb 11 by BazzaInTheLoft |
Economic arguments in regards to sovereignty are always trumped by Emotional ones. We more than anyone should know this. |
Absolutely true, it was at the core of Brexit. As for how the EU responds, the Verhofstadt class will be delighted to support a partial reunion of the project, but it might get a harder response elsewhere (though Brussels will probably get their way). | | | |
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| Irish General Election on 12:12 - Feb 11 with 1644 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 02:24 - Feb 11 by CiderwithRsie |
Maybe I'm not explaining myself well.
I agree that having NI in the single market + the screw-ups by the DUP make a united Ireland more likely. That's been true for several months if not a year or two. So I've been sort-of expecting that to be on the cards in the next few years.
What I'm saying is that big gains for SF in The Republic (as opposed to if they were winning big in the north) is a barrier to unification.
A border poll has to take place in the north so it doesn't help if SF win every single seat in the Republic, if opinion in the north is against it. Dublin doesn't get to call a border poll, that's up to the British Sec of State for NI. Effectively the North has a veto because it's unlikely the SoS would call a poll unless the North wanted it and anyway only they get to vote in it. SF voters in the Republic don't get a say on calling it or vote in it. So it doesn't matter a toss how many of them there are.
And it seems to me that SF winning big in the Republic makes it much less likely that Northern protestants, or maybe even some moderate catholics, would vote for unification in a border poll. Being run by Varadkar is one thing, being run by SF quite another.
Whereas if FG had held on a lot of people in the north might have thought "well, Boris has screwed us, the DUP are backward, the Republic seems to have got over all that De Valera Catholic stuff on abortion etc, maybe The Future Is Green, not Orange?"
Plus I don't see any sign that SF did well in the Republic because people there want to push the border thing anyway, more because they're p*ssed off with FG and FF.
I still think unification is way, way more likely than it was 10 or even 5 years ago. I just think it is now less likely than it was at Christmas. |
I think you vastly underestimate Boris and how little of f*ck he gives about NI and how a majority of 80 (unfortunately) means he can do whatever he likes
I know he is out there giving it the big man speeches now, but there will come a point when he needs/wants something from the EU/Ireland. That point may well come when people are losing their jobs and the tax receipts are down. Given the £10bn NI costs the UK Boris would be more than happy to cut NI lose and blame someone else.
IF SF forms even part of government and there is a huge global recession (big ifs…I know) I think the big man speeches will take a more conciliatory tone and borris will be out begging nations to buy UK goods and services. He’s completely disregarded the good Friday agreement already, I see no reason why he wouldn’t do it again.
Frankly is laughable that yesterday the papers would even report that ministers are looking at a building a £25bn bridge over an old munitions dump, at the same time as trying to cut 5% from every department. If the SF result changes little then why bother to put out this propaganda yesterday? Its trotted out every time a diversion is needed
I get what you are saying the south has no direct influence on a boarder poll. I just think that if its 1m NI residents standing in the way of trade deals the UK needs/wants to make to drag themselves out of a recession there’s plenty of ways around it to be found.
I don’t actually think NI would vote reunification anyway and I think its even less likely that borris would be up for another referendum where he might not get the result be wanted, again. So the question remains for him? How to get shot of NI and blame someone else without pissing the EU/US off?? I don’t know the answer but it usually follows the money |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 12:20 - Feb 11 with 1631 views | BrianMcCarthy |
Davy Stockbrokers Report From This Morning:
POLITICAL OUTLOOK:
HIGHEST PROBABILITY is of a second election being held in the next couple months (60% chance)
IF a coalition is formed, the most likely combination is Sinn Féin/Fianna Fáil. Since it will effectively be a negotiation between two equal partners, Fianna Fáil will have to compromise a lot.
There is a battle within Fianna Fáil given Micheál Martin’s stated position on a Sinn Féin coalition. WE may see a change of leadership.
After the last election, it took a record 70 days to form a coalition. This time round is likely to be longer.
Sinn Féin’s preferred option would be another election, but they like to play a long game generally, so may be prepared to wait.
Sinn Féin have an express commitment for a border poll — will want to start immediate negotiations with British with a view to holding a border poll within five years. They may be willing to compromise on other policies to gain the poll.
Sinn Féin Fiscal Policies and funding:
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have promised similar amounts of fiscal spending (€7bn FG; €8bn FF). Sinn Féin is promising double this: €16bn; financed with tax increases, including:
A 5% levy on all incomes greater than €140k per annum
Some business tax increases, including an intellectual property tax increase
An employer PRSI payment for those earning more than €100k
Increase of bank levy from current €150m to €200m
Other Sinn Féin policies include:
Giving the Central Bank the powers to cap mortgage interest rates
Abolishing ‘help to buy scheme’
Imposing a rent freeze on private rentals.
Where Parties (Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin) AGREE OR COULD AGREE:
BOTH parties have talked about increasing vacant site levy from 7% to 14% (FF) or 15% (SF)
Social Housing — SF would like to increase units to 100,000 within the next five years. Both parties could probably agree on expanding funding.
Where parties DISAGREE:
FF are very supportive on the ‘help to buy’ scheme, and want to introduce a savings incentive account for first time buyers. Sinn Féin want to eliminate the help to buy scheme altogether.
Implications for SECTORS:
BANKS:
Sinn Féin planned increases in bank levy; power to cap mortgage interest rates- NEGATIVE
Sinn Féin also want to maintain government 71% stake in AIB
‘No consent no sale’ bill — lenders may not transfer mortgages on residential property without the consent of the borrower.
REITS:
Rent Freeze UNLIKELY TO FULLY HAPPEN, as it would lead to a lack of supply (as per Berlin recently), but may see the current 4% rent cap MOVE TOWARDS 2-3%. Biggest impact to IRES.
Sinn Féin want to INCREASE THE LEVEL OF STAMP DUTY ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FROM 7.5% TO 12.5% (to reallocate resources from offices and hotels towards the residential sector). This rate may get watered down, as the reality is that office vacancy rates are at record lows of 5.1% and hotel supply has only really restarted in 2018 after a period of inactivity.
HOUSEBUILDERS:
Sinn Féin want to increase the part 5 requirement for social housing on developments from 10% to 25%.
The most likely way for this to happen would be via planning system — so would only affect sites going forward.
>50% of landbank of both Cairn and Glenveagh has planning already, and they may look to speed up further planning before any further legislation is implemented
Social housing is margin dilutive — likely 100-150bps on sites | |
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| Irish General Election on 12:22 - Feb 11 with 1630 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 08:07 - Feb 11 by WatfordR |
FWIW, I think unification is eventually inevitable, but I don't think it's necessarily going to be any time soon. It'll happen as a consequence of gradual change in circumstance: the disintegration of the UK, with NI cast adrift (will there be a point to Unionist parties any more?) and Scotland gaining independence; the addition of SF to the political mainstream in the South (potentially, but again over time, removing/reducing the demons surrounding their history); the economic benefits of avoiding any kind of trade barrier/border in Ireland.
If all of these come to pass over time, the emphasis regards the question of unification will become "Why not" rather than "Why". I don't see any need to push for unification sooner rather than later though, when it's something that will in all likelihood make sense in its own good time. |
This. Exactly.
I'd just add that as the border/citizenship/governance/finances/budgets/imports/exports issues pan out in NI, I think will become more and more of a pain for the UK government. So the pushing/hurry may well come from Westminster and SF could provide a nice easy ready made scapegoat | | | |
| Irish General Election on 12:39 - Feb 11 with 1593 views | WatfordR |
| Irish General Election on 12:20 - Feb 11 by BrianMcCarthy |
Davy Stockbrokers Report From This Morning:
POLITICAL OUTLOOK:
HIGHEST PROBABILITY is of a second election being held in the next couple months (60% chance)
IF a coalition is formed, the most likely combination is Sinn Féin/Fianna Fáil. Since it will effectively be a negotiation between two equal partners, Fianna Fáil will have to compromise a lot.
There is a battle within Fianna Fáil given Micheál Martin’s stated position on a Sinn Féin coalition. WE may see a change of leadership.
After the last election, it took a record 70 days to form a coalition. This time round is likely to be longer.
Sinn Féin’s preferred option would be another election, but they like to play a long game generally, so may be prepared to wait.
Sinn Féin have an express commitment for a border poll — will want to start immediate negotiations with British with a view to holding a border poll within five years. They may be willing to compromise on other policies to gain the poll.
Sinn Féin Fiscal Policies and funding:
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have promised similar amounts of fiscal spending (€7bn FG; €8bn FF). Sinn Féin is promising double this: €16bn; financed with tax increases, including:
A 5% levy on all incomes greater than €140k per annum
Some business tax increases, including an intellectual property tax increase
An employer PRSI payment for those earning more than €100k
Increase of bank levy from current €150m to €200m
Other Sinn Féin policies include:
Giving the Central Bank the powers to cap mortgage interest rates
Abolishing ‘help to buy scheme’
Imposing a rent freeze on private rentals.
Where Parties (Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin) AGREE OR COULD AGREE:
BOTH parties have talked about increasing vacant site levy from 7% to 14% (FF) or 15% (SF)
Social Housing — SF would like to increase units to 100,000 within the next five years. Both parties could probably agree on expanding funding.
Where parties DISAGREE:
FF are very supportive on the ‘help to buy’ scheme, and want to introduce a savings incentive account for first time buyers. Sinn Féin want to eliminate the help to buy scheme altogether.
Implications for SECTORS:
BANKS:
Sinn Féin planned increases in bank levy; power to cap mortgage interest rates- NEGATIVE
Sinn Féin also want to maintain government 71% stake in AIB
‘No consent no sale’ bill — lenders may not transfer mortgages on residential property without the consent of the borrower.
REITS:
Rent Freeze UNLIKELY TO FULLY HAPPEN, as it would lead to a lack of supply (as per Berlin recently), but may see the current 4% rent cap MOVE TOWARDS 2-3%. Biggest impact to IRES.
Sinn Féin want to INCREASE THE LEVEL OF STAMP DUTY ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FROM 7.5% TO 12.5% (to reallocate resources from offices and hotels towards the residential sector). This rate may get watered down, as the reality is that office vacancy rates are at record lows of 5.1% and hotel supply has only really restarted in 2018 after a period of inactivity.
HOUSEBUILDERS:
Sinn Féin want to increase the part 5 requirement for social housing on developments from 10% to 25%.
The most likely way for this to happen would be via planning system — so would only affect sites going forward.
>50% of landbank of both Cairn and Glenveagh has planning already, and they may look to speed up further planning before any further legislation is implemented
Social housing is margin dilutive — likely 100-150bps on sites |
Interesting stuff. Though one other thing to bear in mind. In a coalition, SF go from outsiders to front runners. How well could a left-right coalition work? Would participation in such a government set them up for a fall, so to speak? |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 14:43 - Feb 11 with 1470 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 12:39 - Feb 11 by WatfordR |
Interesting stuff. Though one other thing to bear in mind. In a coalition, SF go from outsiders to front runners. How well could a left-right coalition work? Would participation in such a government set them up for a fall, so to speak? |
Ya, that's the danger for any party that goes into a bad marriage.
I'm not sure why anyone does. | |
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| Irish General Election on 14:46 - Feb 11 with 1461 views | BrianMcCarthy |
Enjoyed that, until near the end where it just got personal - me, me, me - and veered off the point.
She's also got some axe to grind with O'Toole and she's incorrect that he's not speaking out. He's on the radios today and has a piece in the Irish Times as well.
Decent enough piece, though.
Is that a good website, Sheen? New one on me. | |
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| Irish General Election on 14:57 - Feb 11 with 1425 views | MrSheen |
| Irish General Election on 14:46 - Feb 11 by BrianMcCarthy |
Enjoyed that, until near the end where it just got personal - me, me, me - and veered off the point.
She's also got some axe to grind with O'Toole and she's incorrect that he's not speaking out. He's on the radios today and has a piece in the Irish Times as well.
Decent enough piece, though.
Is that a good website, Sheen? New one on me. |
About a year old. Definitely leans right for the most part, but strong on “blue Labour” localism rather than neo-liberal. Some people you might recognise...David Goodhart, Matthew Goodwin, Justin Webb, Julie Bindel, Paul Embrey, Giles Fraser. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 15:18 - Feb 11 with 1396 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 14:57 - Feb 11 by MrSheen |
About a year old. Definitely leans right for the most part, but strong on “blue Labour” localism rather than neo-liberal. Some people you might recognise...David Goodhart, Matthew Goodwin, Justin Webb, Julie Bindel, Paul Embrey, Giles Fraser. |
Thanks.I'll keep an eye. | |
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| Irish General Election on 15:56 - Feb 11 with 1363 views | Boston |
Can’t help but be amused thinking how it’s just a few months since Mr Varadkar was trying to tell Boris Johnson the error of his ways. Politics! | |
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| Irish General Election on 16:10 - Feb 11 with 1346 views | WatfordR |
| Irish General Election on 15:56 - Feb 11 by Boston |
Can’t help but be amused thinking how it’s just a few months since Mr Varadkar was trying to tell Boris Johnson the error of his ways. Politics! |
Wasting one's breath trying to tell Boris he is wrong about anything shows a serious lack of judgment anyway. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 17:28 - Feb 11 with 1303 views | robith |
| Irish General Election on 08:53 - Feb 11 by MrSheen |
Background reading?
I’m a reader of the Planet Rugby forum. About half of the posters there are Irish (fair-weather fans? I couldn’t possibly comment) and they have a LOT to say about everything. They’ve been jeering mightily at the Brits and Nordies over the last few years for the ignorant folly of Brexit, but it’s not so funny now the fox is loose in their barn. As a rugby board, the grating voice of middle class Dublin is very heavily represented, but over 100 pages, dive in.
http://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=92616&start=4240 |
Kinda rich them complaining about ISF memeing about the IRA when those lads regularly post pictures of semtex as in the match "banter" threads
I also deeply worry for you if you think Planet Rugby is the insight to the Irish psyche. They have a Dublin restaurant recommendation thread that was started by they saying how they should spend their NAMA money ffs.
Reading that place probably also explains why your rugby opinions are so bad #banter |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 17:33 - Feb 11 with 1298 views | robith |
| Irish General Election on 14:46 - Feb 11 by BrianMcCarthy |
Enjoyed that, until near the end where it just got personal - me, me, me - and veered off the point.
She's also got some axe to grind with O'Toole and she's incorrect that he's not speaking out. He's on the radios today and has a piece in the Irish Times as well.
Decent enough piece, though.
Is that a good website, Sheen? New one on me. |
Unherd is a collection of some of the worst people in the world Brian | | | |
| Irish General Election on 18:10 - Feb 11 with 1251 views | MrSheen |
| Irish General Election on 17:33 - Feb 11 by robith |
Unherd is a collection of some of the worst people in the world Brian |
Nanny has spoken. Cover your eyes.
Imagine dragging a widow from her home, shooting her in the head, burying her secretly, leaving 10 orphans to be brought up in care and then lying about it for decades. The columnists on Unherd are much worse than that. And that’s no lie. [Post edited 12 Feb 2020 6:23]
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| Irish General Election on 19:00 - Feb 11 with 2187 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 10:17 - Feb 11 by MrSheen |
UK and Irish public spending per head are pretty similar. Public spending is 20% higher in Northern Ireland and the revenue raised per head more than 20% below the UK average. Transferring that burden to a country one tenth of the size will be a big shock. No doubt Mary Lou will be able to persuade the people of Bulgaria and Slovakia to give generously. |
People in the UK always say this, but I wonder a bit.
For a start, how much of the extra spend per head is about addressing the problems of keeping NI in the UK instead of in Ireland? The security costs, throwing money into community projects to keep teenagers out of the clutches of the para-militaries, the extra layer of devolved govt etc? How much more revenue would be produced if NI's economy was fully integrated into the economy of the rest of Ireland? Mightn't there be savings from having a single rail system/health service etc?
Secondly, would NI crash utterly if it's govt had to slice 20% off budget? Maybe they would stop throwing money at pork barrel projects dreamt up by NI politicians to reward their communities, and start getting better value for money? Right now the UK govt is a soft touch for a blank cheque "because it's Norn Ireland isn't it, if we don't stump up it'll kick off." What if they have to face a bit more fiscal discipline? You'd need to be a lot more confident in the rigorous efficiency of govt spending than I think you are to believe that all the cash we now spend is well-spent, or that public spending is the key to prosperity.
(Playing devil's advocate a bit here, I'm not advocating this course of action; but, like I say, I wonder a bit.) | | | |
| Irish General Election on 14:35 - Feb 25 with 1978 views | JimmyR |
Ironically the partitionist nature of Irish politics also benefits Sinn Féin. Most voters in the Republic pay little attention to day-to-day northern politics. But what people are aware of is that since 2017 Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have been demanding that Sinn Féin return to government with the Democratic Unionist party in Belfast. It seems strange then to assert that it is unfit for power in the Republic. Indeed if the IRA army council is really running Sinn Féin, then how does DUP leader Arlene Foster (a woman whose father was actually shot by the IRA), share power with them in Northern Ireland?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/25/sinn-fein-party-two-party- | | | |
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