| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 02:51 - May 2 with 13947 views | Dr_Parnassus |
Firstly congratulations to Steve Cooper, the players and everyone at the club for not only reaching the playoffs for the second consecutive year, but amassing a points tally equal to our record best in this division, held previously by our incredible Brendan Rodgers side the year we went up.
We do have a chance to topple that record with any kind of positive result against Watford next week.
2011
2021
Not only is the points tally being exactly the same pretty remarkable, but also the fact we were going in with the best defensive record and yet the worst (joint) scoring record. Whether or not you like the style, like the manager - the blueprint has been very similar with regards to that.
But now the playoffs have been decided and we can look ahead...
The worst possible result for us sadly. They are one of those teams we don’t seem to do well against and think it’s fair to say that on paper have the strongest squad in the playoffs. Our last 6 meetings:-
Bournemouth 3-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 1-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-3 Bournemouth
0 goals scored. 9 goals conceded.
As many may have gathered by now I approach football the same way as I do with most aspects of life, methodical with a focus on statistics, trends and probabilities.
That premise suggests that you want to avoid the best team over the longest period of time. If you must meet that team then you have a greater chance to beat that team over a shorter period of time.
For example if Man City played Sheff United over a 90 minute match, they would probably be in the region of 1/10 to win, if the rules of the game made that a 180 minute match the odds would probably be 1/20, because the longer the time you have the more chance that the class difference will tell.
So ideally we would have wanted them in the final where aspects such as luck can play a part and not have chance to even itself out over the longer course of 2 legs.
So it’s going to be tough. But not impossible. We had a similar route in the Carling Cup where we were faced with playing Chelsea over 2 legs which set up an easier final. So it’s not out of the question.
Bournemouth rested a host of players against Wycombe yesterday and will probably do so again next week. We didn’t rest as many as I thought we would so would like to see that happen next week, which really is a dead rubber. It would be pretty galling to pick up an injury or red card.
All that is left to play for is home advantage in the second leg.
What will be will be. But whatever happens from here on in, this has been yet another successful season. [Post edited 2 May 2021 3:06]
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:22 - May 8 with 1116 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:16 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54 |
On page two of this thread:
<< Surely with all teams in the play offs resting players we could see any of the scenarios outlined in equal measure. >>
Algorithm included alll possibilities according to Dr P |
There is no algorithm though, it's just his interpretation that the market is correct.
In other words he's trying to say that the weight of money in any one of the 3 outcomes is correct because punters would have factored into their placing of the bets that teams would maybe rest players/not go for it as much due to play off games coming up.
It's just an amateur leap of faith. |  | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:23 - May 8 with 1113 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:22 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54 |
You can’t include team selections into any “algorithm” a week before the game can you.
Read the thread title  |
Exactly!! | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:24 - May 8 with 1105 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:23 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
Exactly!! |
You can say “exactly” as much as you like if it makes you feel better you have a friend, you will both be as wrong as each other.
I can’t help you any further than I have already tried to. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:26 - May 8 with 1097 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:24 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
You can say “exactly” as much as you like if it makes you feel better you have a friend, you will both be as wrong as each other.
I can’t help you any further than I have already tried to. |
You've realised how out of your depth you are now and the feeble quantities you've used in your calcs and you are wilting.
Mind, I'm not surprised, it's half 5 in the morning! | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:28 - May 8 with 1093 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:22 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
There is no algorithm though, it's just his interpretation that the market is correct.
In other words he's trying to say that the weight of money in any one of the 3 outcomes is correct because punters would have factored into their placing of the bets that teams would maybe rest players/not go for it as much due to play off games coming up.
It's just an amateur leap of faith. |
Nope, it’s an algorithm which drives global trillion dollar entities... of which they are trillion dollar entities because of such accuracy of said algorithms.
All probabilities are factored in to the calculation at the time of the price. Any changes to those factors then become factored again, it’s constantly accurate at time of reporting.
Are you suggesting the prices shifted before kick off? Do you have the prices at hand?
Or are you guessing and making up a scenario because you are trying to argue with Dr P?
If you have the figures at time of kick off I will happily run them again for you, they will be almost identical. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:29 - May 8 with 1088 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:28 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
Nope, it’s an algorithm which drives global trillion dollar entities... of which they are trillion dollar entities because of such accuracy of said algorithms.
All probabilities are factored in to the calculation at the time of the price. Any changes to those factors then become factored again, it’s constantly accurate at time of reporting.
Are you suggesting the prices shifted before kick off? Do you have the prices at hand?
Or are you guessing and making up a scenario because you are trying to argue with Dr P?
If you have the figures at time of kick off I will happily run them again for you, they will be almost identical. |
So there you are then...
Surely a bit embarrassing to use market figures almost a week before vital information came out. | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:30 - May 8 with 1085 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:26 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
You've realised how out of your depth you are now and the feeble quantities you've used in your calcs and you are wilting.
Mind, I'm not surprised, it's half 5 in the morning! |
My word 
Who are you trying to kid? Seriously.
Give me your odds at the time of Kick Off and I’ll run the sums that you want. They will still agree with me.
In your own time. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:32 - May 8 with 1079 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:30 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
My word
Who are you trying to kid? Seriously.
Give me your odds at the time of Kick Off and I’ll run the sums that you want. They will still agree with me.
In your own time. |
This is yours to own Adam.
You can't use data a week before the event and draft an article based on that (especially when it turns out so humiliating as this one) | | | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:33 - May 8 with 1077 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:29 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
So there you are then...
Surely a bit embarrassing to use market figures almost a week before vital information came out. |
What do you mean “there we are then”? 
I am saying at time of writing this was absolutely accurate, any small fluctuations come kick off would have moved it maybe a couple of % either way.
The point remains regardless, you aren’t grasping that.
If you think there was a drastic market move (there wasn’t) then happy to see what numbers you have and I’ll do a new calc to show I’m still right.
Up to you. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:34 - May 8 with 1074 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:32 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
This is yours to own Adam.
You can't use data a week before the event and draft an article based on that (especially when it turns out so humiliating as this one) |
Yes I can Christopher, because it’s factually accurate.
How can’t you grasp this? What is it you do again? | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:35 - May 8 with 1064 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:34 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
Yes I can Christopher, because it’s factually accurate.
How can’t you grasp this? What is it you do again? |
Having lost back-to-back matches without scoring, Jonathan Woodgate recalled top scorers Dominic Solanke and Arnaut Danjuma in seven changes from the side beaten by strugglers Wycombe.
Seven (7) changes no less.
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:38 - May 8 with 1056 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:35 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
Having lost back-to-back matches without scoring, Jonathan Woodgate recalled top scorers Dominic Solanke and Arnaut Danjuma in seven changes from the side beaten by strugglers Wycombe.
Seven (7) changes no less.
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And?
You realise if anything that makes it even more likely we would face Bournemouth don’t you? But of course the algorithm already accounted for the likelihood they would play a strong side due to the fact it is better for them to finish 4th or 5th rather than 6th.
This is painful. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:41 - May 8 with 1049 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:38 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
And?
You realise if anything that makes it even more likely we would face Bournemouth don’t you? But of course the algorithm already accounted for the likelihood they would play a strong side due to the fact it is better for them to finish 4th or 5th rather than 6th.
This is painful. |
The algorithm doesn't exist in end of season encounters like this. There are far too many anomalies for it to come up with anything meaningful, plus, you only have to look at Championship odds to realise the bots get confused. It's a minefield of a league and you've just been blown to smithereens. | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:44 - May 8 with 1041 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:41 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
The algorithm doesn't exist in end of season encounters like this. There are far too many anomalies for it to come up with anything meaningful, plus, you only have to look at Championship odds to realise the bots get confused. It's a minefield of a league and you've just been blown to smithereens. |
Yeah the industry just shuts down last game of the season.
Everything is taken into consideration. Everything.
All you have done is argue that there was slightly MORE chance of us facing Bournemouth come kick off that there was a week before.
Aye, nice. Glad you finally agree with the thread. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:49 - May 8 with 1019 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:44 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
Yeah the industry just shuts down last game of the season.
Everything is taken into consideration. Everything.
All you have done is argue that there was slightly MORE chance of us facing Bournemouth come kick off that there was a week before.
Aye, nice. Glad you finally agree with the thread. |
It doesn't shut down laddie, it's just less efficient and you know that.
When you're watching Tijuana v Guadalajara Monday morning looking to see who's placed £20 dollars too much have a little think about this schooling.
Now get to bed or your Mrs will leave you (if she hasn't already!) | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:52 - May 8 with 1013 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:49 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
It doesn't shut down laddie, it's just less efficient and you know that.
When you're watching Tijuana v Guadalajara Monday morning looking to see who's placed £20 dollars too much have a little think about this schooling.
Now get to bed or your Mrs will leave you (if she hasn't already!) |
No, I KNOW the opposite. You are pretending (and failing miserably) to claim the alternate.
Sense will always be desirable. Will obsessing over blokes on the internet?
I can’t imagine so. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:57 - May 8 with 997 views | 9MilesHigh |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:52 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus |
No, I KNOW the opposite. You are pretending (and failing miserably) to claim the alternate.
Sense will always be desirable. Will obsessing over blokes on the internet?
I can’t imagine so. |
You know I am going to come back on here in 2 hours to have the last word don't you.... just remember that when you eventually go to bed. | | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 21:00 - May 8 with 994 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:57 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh |
You know I am going to come back on here in 2 hours to have the last word don't you.... just remember that when you eventually go to bed. |
You have to do what makes you happy in life Chris.
If that means coming on here to have the last word on a thread you have displayed you have no clue in because you obsessed with a bloke on the internet, then that’s what it will be. I’m not here to judge you.
Sadly for you I’m on a European body clock at the moment so will see you in a couple of hours. | |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 11:25 - May 9 with 857 views | NotLoyal |
I thought the article was an extremely interesting read, also the maths will aways be the maths regardless. Is anyone else getting that? |  |
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| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:28 - May 9 with 819 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 11:25 - May 9 by NotLoyal |
I thought the article was an extremely interesting read, also the maths will aways be the maths regardless. Is anyone else getting that? |
Not seen an article, just the long original post which would have been very interesting
If we weren’t playing Barnsley |  | | |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:34 - May 9 with 805 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 12:28 - May 9 by 34dfgdf54 |
Not seen an article, just the long original post which would have been very interesting
If we weren’t playing Barnsley |
Makes no difference, as NL eloquently pointed out.
I’m sure it will sink in soon. | |
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