| FA Cup 18:20 - Oct 24 with 12597 views | Ancoats_Blue |
1st round draw on Monday. Usually something I’m glued to, can’t really find the excitement this year knowing we won’t watch the games. Hoping we get an easy route to R3 and some much needed income. |  | | |  |
| FA Cup on 20:47 - Oct 26 with 2493 views | D_Alien |
| FA Cup on 20:22 - Oct 26 by TVOS1907 |
Fifth season running in which we've drawn a non-league side in the first round. |
With 48 league teams (usually) and 32 non-league teams in the 1st Round draw, the chances of drawing a non-league team in the first of those five seasons would be 40% (32/80)
I'm sure you'll correct me if this is wrong, but that'd mean the chances of doing so two seasons running would be twice as slim, i.e. a 20% chance
Three seasons running: 10% chance
Four seasons running: 5% chance
Five seasons running: 2.5% chance
Therefore, the odds on drawing a non-league team five seasons running are 40/1 ?? |  |
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| FA Cup on 20:48 - Oct 26 with 2497 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 20:43 - Oct 26 by Thacks_Rabbits |
Think we played them in the same run that Mark Stuart had his jaw broken, may even have been that game. |
We played them in 93/94.
Stuart broke his jaw in 95/96. |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 20:54 - Oct 26 with 2452 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 20:47 - Oct 26 by D_Alien |
With 48 league teams (usually) and 32 non-league teams in the 1st Round draw, the chances of drawing a non-league team in the first of those five seasons would be 40% (32/80)
I'm sure you'll correct me if this is wrong, but that'd mean the chances of doing so two seasons running would be twice as slim, i.e. a 20% chance
Three seasons running: 10% chance
Four seasons running: 5% chance
Five seasons running: 2.5% chance
Therefore, the odds on drawing a non-league team five seasons running are 40/1 ?? |
Based on the same principle as betting accumulators, it would be (32/80)^5, which is 0.01024.
So, around a 1.024% chance, which is closer to 100/1. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 20:57 - Oct 26 with 2430 views | D_Alien |
| FA Cup on 20:54 - Oct 26 by TVOS1907 |
Based on the same principle as betting accumulators, it would be (32/80)^5, which is 0.01024.
So, around a 1.024% chance, which is closer to 100/1. |
Ah, i thought there'd be another factor i hadn't reckoned for! Those are some odds then... | |
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| FA Cup on 21:06 - Oct 26 with 2398 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 20:57 - Oct 26 by D_Alien |
Ah, i thought there'd be another factor i hadn't reckoned for! Those are some odds then... |
Yes.
Your calculations would work if half of the teams in the draw were non-league from the second season onwards, giving 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5.
But as the probability of drawing a non-league team is 0.4 each season, it's 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4.
[Same principle as getting five consecutive heads on five tosses of a coin, but that would be 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5]
It will be impossible to work out from the next round as there isn't a consistent number of non-league teams who get through. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 21:13 - Oct 26 with 2375 views | dingdangblue |
| FA Cup on 19:22 - Oct 26 by DaleiLama |
Missed the draw but did it go smoother without having to give the last team a bye after an expulsion? |
Try and watch it on iplayer - the presenter Lynsey Hipgrave had a mare. Read a load of wrong teams and there was a comedy moment where Mansfield had just been drawn away at Sunderland then she said "and they're up against Bolton Wanderers" who were the next home tie out. 🤔 |  |
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| FA Cup on 21:44 - Oct 26 with 2297 views | D_Alien |
| FA Cup on 21:06 - Oct 26 by TVOS1907 |
Yes.
Your calculations would work if half of the teams in the draw were non-league from the second season onwards, giving 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5.
But as the probability of drawing a non-league team is 0.4 each season, it's 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4.
[Same principle as getting five consecutive heads on five tosses of a coin, but that would be 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5]
It will be impossible to work out from the next round as there isn't a consistent number of non-league teams who get through. |
Cheers
Am i right in calculating that the odds of us drawing a non-league side for a sixth consecutive season would be c. 244-1?
If so, might well be worth seeing if any betting concern would take a punt
Edit: actually no, they'd just be 6-4!! The 244-1 (if correct) would only be the odds at the start of the sequence
[Post edited 26 Oct 2020 21:50]
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| FA Cup on 21:57 - Oct 26 with 2264 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 21:44 - Oct 26 by D_Alien |
Cheers
Am i right in calculating that the odds of us drawing a non-league side for a sixth consecutive season would be c. 244-1?
If so, might well be worth seeing if any betting concern would take a punt
Edit: actually no, they'd just be 6-4!! The 244-1 (if correct) would only be the odds at the start of the sequence
[Post edited 26 Oct 2020 21:50]
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Six seasons running is 0.004096, which is around 244-1 | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 08:44 - Oct 27 with 1994 views | pioneer |
| FA Cup on 20:22 - Oct 26 by TVOS1907 |
Fifth season running in which we've drawn a non-league side in the first round. |
we went 6 seasons without drawing a non league team from 1966-67 immediately followed by 7 seasons of ties against non league teams...one of those seasons the first round was against then league side workington, who finished bottom of the league, but after beating them in a reply we drew non league Gateshead in the second round. We won 2 and lost 4 of the first round non league ties. Following one of those wins we lost in the second round ... to another non league team.
Over the 7 seasons we won 3 drew 5 and lost 5 against non leaguers. I was at all those games...the phrase glutton for punishment comes to mind. |  | | |
| FA Cup on 08:51 - Oct 27 with 1976 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 08:44 - Oct 27 by pioneer |
we went 6 seasons without drawing a non league team from 1966-67 immediately followed by 7 seasons of ties against non league teams...one of those seasons the first round was against then league side workington, who finished bottom of the league, but after beating them in a reply we drew non league Gateshead in the second round. We won 2 and lost 4 of the first round non league ties. Following one of those wins we lost in the second round ... to another non league team.
Over the 7 seasons we won 3 drew 5 and lost 5 against non leaguers. I was at all those games...the phrase glutton for punishment comes to mind. |
I know, but at that time the draw was split into north and south, meaning the number of non-league teams in each region could vary from year to year, depending on their location.
That's one of the reasons they made it a national draw; so there was no perceived advantage to being in the region with the most non-league sides. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 08:58 - Oct 27 with 1965 views | pioneer |
| FA Cup on 08:51 - Oct 27 by TVOS1907 |
I know, but at that time the draw was split into north and south, meaning the number of non-league teams in each region could vary from year to year, depending on their location.
That's one of the reasons they made it a national draw; so there was no perceived advantage to being in the region with the most non-league sides. |
but weren’t the qualifying rounds regionalised as well ..... seems unlikely the numbers of non league teams in the northern half of the draw would suddenly increase significantly around 1972 and stay higher for the next 7 years. Its what they call the luck of the draw. | | | |
| FA Cup on 09:16 - Oct 27 with 1952 views | AtThePeake |
| FA Cup on 20:21 - Oct 26 by Ancoats_Blue |
This seems to be the default reaction from Chesterfield fans.
Which confuses me as I don’t remember ever playing them in the FA Cup. In the league most seasons yeah, but not the FA cup. Checked and we’ve played them twice in the cup. 1928 and in 1993. Hardly a frequent occurrence. |
They've played us three times in the 'EFL Trophy' and it's previous guise plus once in the League Cup since 2013 though. |  |
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| FA Cup on 09:22 - Oct 27 with 1940 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 08:58 - Oct 27 by pioneer |
but weren’t the qualifying rounds regionalised as well ..... seems unlikely the numbers of non league teams in the northern half of the draw would suddenly increase significantly around 1972 and stay higher for the next 7 years. Its what they call the luck of the draw. |
The qualifying rounds still are regionalised, but up to 1999, there was no guarantee the north and south would each have 40 clubs in the round one draw. The spread of League clubs might not have led to an even N/S split. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 10:01 - Oct 27 with 1911 views | pioneer |
| FA Cup on 09:22 - Oct 27 by TVOS1907 |
The qualifying rounds still are regionalised, but up to 1999, there was no guarantee the north and south would each have 40 clubs in the round one draw. The spread of League clubs might not have led to an even N/S split. |
yes but no reason why the geography of football (or the FACup) suddenly switched in 1972 in a way that led to a sudden reversal of chances of drawing a non league side... that then lasted for 7 years. More likely to be tje football gods! | | | |
| FA Cup on 10:36 - Oct 27 with 1853 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 10:01 - Oct 27 by pioneer |
yes but no reason why the geography of football (or the FACup) suddenly switched in 1972 in a way that led to a sudden reversal of chances of drawing a non league side... that then lasted for 7 years. More likely to be tje football gods! |
Never said it wasn't, but the mathematics of the draw have changed since they stopped regionalising it in 1999! [Post edited 27 Oct 2020 10:38]
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| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 15:09 - Oct 27 with 1685 views | EllDale |
Crazy isn’t it?
At one time we hated drawing non-league teams because of nightmare experiences 40 and 50 years ago but now we positively welcome them. | | | |
| FA Cup on 11:38 - Oct 28 with 1521 views | Mass_Debater |
| FA Cup on 19:30 - Oct 26 by boromat |
Yeah not a bad draw. |
Yeah, agree | | | |
| FA Cup on 12:22 - Oct 28 with 1473 views | Barrowdale |
Does anyone know if we are going to be able to watch the game, on ifollow or similar.
If not I fail to see the point of the cup at all. Im not interested in just looking after the game to see how we went on |  | | |
| FA Cup on 21:36 - Oct 28 with 1274 views | D_Dale |
| FA Cup on 12:22 - Oct 28 by Barrowdale |
Does anyone know if we are going to be able to watch the game, on ifollow or similar.
If not I fail to see the point of the cup at all. Im not interested in just looking after the game to see how we went on |
In the BBC's live coverage of Ilkeston v. Hartlepool last Saturday it was strange to see so many fans so close together.
I can't remember the reasoning for not following the behind-closed-doors policy, but it could have added to the increasing numbers in isolation. | | | |
| FA Cup on 21:41 - Oct 28 with 1266 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 21:36 - Oct 28 by D_Dale |
In the BBC's live coverage of Ilkeston v. Hartlepool last Saturday it was strange to see so many fans so close together.
I can't remember the reasoning for not following the behind-closed-doors policy, but it could have added to the increasing numbers in isolation. |
https://www.thefa.com/news/2020/sep/29/statement-emirates-fa-cup-spectators-2909 | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 21:46 - Oct 28 with 1256 views | 442Dale |
Best bit in that is how non-elite fans from both clubs can go if drawn together, but elite club fans can’t if away at a non-elite club.
Has the vaccine been tested exclusively in lower non-league football then? |  |
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| FA Cup on 22:32 - Oct 28 with 1218 views | Ancoats_Blue |
Nonsense rules again. So, 600 people allowed in at FC United v Doncaster is deemed an acceptable risk. 600, 60 or even 6 spectators in a larger stadium in Greater Manchester (presumably with better facilities and obviously more space to spread people around) such as Spotland , Macron Stadium, DW stadium etc too risky and forbidden. Being deemed an “elite” club is a bit of a crap no mans land. | | | |
| FA Cup on 22:38 - Oct 28 with 1203 views | TVOS1907 |
| FA Cup on 22:32 - Oct 28 by Ancoats_Blue |
Nonsense rules again. So, 600 people allowed in at FC United v Doncaster is deemed an acceptable risk. 600, 60 or even 6 spectators in a larger stadium in Greater Manchester (presumably with better facilities and obviously more space to spread people around) such as Spotland , Macron Stadium, DW stadium etc too risky and forbidden. Being deemed an “elite” club is a bit of a crap no mans land. |
That link is for the qualifying rounds. The FA have already announced there won't be any fans anywhere in round one. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| FA Cup on 06:31 - Oct 29 with 1135 views | Ancoats_Blue |
| FA Cup on 22:38 - Oct 28 by TVOS1907 |
That link is for the qualifying rounds. The FA have already announced there won't be any fans anywhere in round one. |
Oops, mis read that. Still, a nonsense that non league below tier 6 is allowed fans in (league and non FA cup) when the rest of the pyramid isn’t. | | | |
| FA Cup on 19:26 - Oct 29 with 948 views | todmordendale |
I thought we may have made BBC coverage after our recent cup exploits with Spurs, Man U and The Toon. Or are we just big time minnows in the cup.
Sadly, most televised games in the first round seem to be tripe. | | | |
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