| Tier 2 / Tier 3 13:15 - Oct 15 with 34972 views | aleanddale |
Matt Hancock hitting a new level of incompetence today in the commons.
Press leaks prior to confirmation with local authority.... then backtracking.
Dithering over a statement on Manchester and Lancashire regarding if and when we will move to tier 3.
No doubt the whole thing is complicated beyond belief BUT there should be much clearer / decisive communication and direction from the government.
Staff on minimum wage will be getting 2/3 or just over £5 an hour on this latest job support scheme that's replacing furlough. Minimum wage is just that the minimum required to survive.
Liverpool the ONLY city on tier 3. Honestly?
Ignoring the "Science" when the science advised a NATIONAL circuit break 3 weeks ago.
My two penneth is that this is set for the long term. I read an article saying the average life expectancy is 81 and the average Covid death age is 82. It is a very very tough decision to make i do understand that but everyone knows this and the day could arrive where shielding becomes self governing and everyone makes there own choices. Maybe new Covid Laws need to be applied to allow the nation to do that and the obvious rule breakers can be hit with more severe penalty.
This is one mighty mess and the problem is that the master plan is falling well short its time for a rethink and quickly. |  | | |  |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 12:23 - Oct 20 with 1986 views | D_Alien |
There is, however, one rider to the "one week's data" debate
If the percentage increase across all or most regions was significantly above the five year average, by say >10% and consistently so, that would clearly indicate a cause which might be attributable to Covid (in the absence of another factor)
The fact it's not can't, i don't think, be attributable to anything
[Post edited 20 Oct 2020 12:28]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 12:50 - Oct 20 with 1931 views | 49thseason |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 11:26 - Oct 20 by Shun |
Absolutely. It's ludicrous to make comparisons to previous years, especially with a sample size of one week. People abiding to Covid protocol this year means less elderly people out shopping or walking, which means less falls and less deaths. Less cars on the roads means less RTAs. Shorter pub opening times means less alcohol-influenced deaths.
Huge number of variables. |
But do the figures support a tier 3 lockdown or not? If local deaths are rising rapidly you mighrt assume that a lock down was warranted, if however there was no large rise over the 5 year average as indicated by last weeks ( week 40) figure ( zero vs 5 year average) and 2.9% rise for week 41, the lowest of those areas that are actually rising, you might conclude that even if cases are rising, the virus is no longer as deadly as it once was.
I have no doubt there will be rising deaths vs 5 year average as we go deeper into winter but we are still the better part of 20,000 deaths short of those who died in the 2017 /18 Flu epidemic . Is it really worth all this disruption, the extra deaths which will occur from other diseases and the financial ruination of local economies?
The average age of Coronavirus victims is 82. And even then, most of those poor souls have other problems. The governments strategy makes little sense, allowing ourselves to be victims of this ill concieved strategy makes even less sense. |  | | |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 12:52 - Oct 20 with 1924 views | TVOS1907 |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 11:00 - Oct 20 by 49thseason |
Excess deaths week 41 ( w/c 9th October)for England and Wales by region.
Table 1: The number of deaths registered was above the five-year average in most of the English regions and Wales
Number of deaths in Wales and the regions in England, registered week ending 9 October 2020
Region name Number of deaths Five-year average Difference Percentage above average
Yorkshire and The Humber 1,067 967 100 10.3
East Midlands 884 824 60 7.3
West Midlands 1,053 985 68 6.9
North East 544 510 34 6.7
Wales 638 615 23 3.7
North West 1,367 1,328 39 2.9
London 902 914 -1 -1.3
South East 1,462 1,505 -43 -2.9
South West 1,010 1,054 -44 -4.2
East 1,019 1,081 -62 -5.7
Source: Office for National Statistics — Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales |
What does that show, apart from a load of numbers? |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 13:29 - Oct 20 with 1879 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 12:50 - Oct 20 by 49thseason |
But do the figures support a tier 3 lockdown or not? If local deaths are rising rapidly you mighrt assume that a lock down was warranted, if however there was no large rise over the 5 year average as indicated by last weeks ( week 40) figure ( zero vs 5 year average) and 2.9% rise for week 41, the lowest of those areas that are actually rising, you might conclude that even if cases are rising, the virus is no longer as deadly as it once was.
I have no doubt there will be rising deaths vs 5 year average as we go deeper into winter but we are still the better part of 20,000 deaths short of those who died in the 2017 /18 Flu epidemic . Is it really worth all this disruption, the extra deaths which will occur from other diseases and the financial ruination of local economies?
The average age of Coronavirus victims is 82. And even then, most of those poor souls have other problems. The governments strategy makes little sense, allowing ourselves to be victims of this ill concieved strategy makes even less sense. |
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditio
Look at the explosion, and doubling from the 5 year average, of deaths in March 2020 that lasted for three months. As the bar chart shows, it happened incredibly quickly. The lockdown worked, in that, it returned the death rate to ‘normal’ levels. The argument is that we are at, or very close to, that explosion point again and a lockdown is again required.
Whether you believe that or not is up to you, but posting random numbers or a weekly statistic is doing absolutely nothing to back-up your point. [Post edited 20 Oct 2020 13:31]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 13:32 - Oct 20 with 1870 views | D_Alien |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 12:50 - Oct 20 by 49thseason |
But do the figures support a tier 3 lockdown or not? If local deaths are rising rapidly you mighrt assume that a lock down was warranted, if however there was no large rise over the 5 year average as indicated by last weeks ( week 40) figure ( zero vs 5 year average) and 2.9% rise for week 41, the lowest of those areas that are actually rising, you might conclude that even if cases are rising, the virus is no longer as deadly as it once was.
I have no doubt there will be rising deaths vs 5 year average as we go deeper into winter but we are still the better part of 20,000 deaths short of those who died in the 2017 /18 Flu epidemic . Is it really worth all this disruption, the extra deaths which will occur from other diseases and the financial ruination of local economies?
The average age of Coronavirus victims is 82. And even then, most of those poor souls have other problems. The governments strategy makes little sense, allowing ourselves to be victims of this ill concieved strategy makes even less sense. |
There have been charts shown in the Downing Street briefings which indicate the rise in transmission from late summer onwards occurred largely in the younger age groups to begin with. However, those same charts indicated that the increased infections among younger groups had started to filter through to the older, more vulnerable groups. There's then a time lag between infections rising in the latter and admission to hospital / mortality rates
Not to take any action would be inexcusable, and certainly politically unsustainable. Whether the actions being taken are the right ones is of course, another debate which is being had elsewhere
[Post edited 20 Oct 2020 13:33]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 14:27 - Oct 20 with 1801 views | TVOS1907 |
Good answer, but like BigDave said, the context is missing, not to mention all the formatting and headings.
The link is much clearer, cheers. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:42 - Oct 20 with 1736 views | 49thseason |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 13:32 - Oct 20 by D_Alien |
There have been charts shown in the Downing Street briefings which indicate the rise in transmission from late summer onwards occurred largely in the younger age groups to begin with. However, those same charts indicated that the increased infections among younger groups had started to filter through to the older, more vulnerable groups. There's then a time lag between infections rising in the latter and admission to hospital / mortality rates
Not to take any action would be inexcusable, and certainly politically unsustainable. Whether the actions being taken are the right ones is of course, another debate which is being had elsewhere
[Post edited 20 Oct 2020 13:33]
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Fine. How many are they going to kill by denying healthcare to them via cancelled appointments and from the fear they have deliberatlely instilled in the population? One estimate I have seen today is 75,000 .
What would the death rates have been earlier in the year if they hadnt sent people from hospital back into their care homes, something they are apparently planning to do again
And now the rumour is that they are sending the army in to enforce the NWest lockdown "pour encourager les autres".
Has anyone heard from our MPs on any of this? The silence is deafening, still at least they all got a pay rise. | | | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 16:04 - Oct 20 with 1714 views | rochdaleriddler |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:42 - Oct 20 by 49thseason |
Fine. How many are they going to kill by denying healthcare to them via cancelled appointments and from the fear they have deliberatlely instilled in the population? One estimate I have seen today is 75,000 .
What would the death rates have been earlier in the year if they hadnt sent people from hospital back into their care homes, something they are apparently planning to do again
And now the rumour is that they are sending the army in to enforce the NWest lockdown "pour encourager les autres".
Has anyone heard from our MPs on any of this? The silence is deafening, still at least they all got a pay rise. |
As the rates have increased in tier 2, how can a closure of non food serving bars, and a few businesses be expected to make much difference. I’ve already seen one local pub launching a £4 loaded chips menu to get round the silliness of this. Once in tier 3 we will struggle to get out of it, if infection rates stay high. |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 17:49 - Oct 20 with 1611 views | 442Dale |
Putting aside the current debate locally, as ever there would be a clearer route out of this if there wasn’t as much selfishness and justification of behaviour. Everywhere. |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:14 - Oct 20 with 1572 views | Plattyswrinklynuts |
Prediction- tier 3 will fail, cause more economic carnage & will leave us no better off.
Open everything, protect the vulnerable as much as possible, enforce mask wearing & immediately close businesses taking the piss (with no right of appeal).
Our short sightedness & failings are storing up economic & social misery that will haunt this country for decades. |  | | |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:22 - Oct 20 with 1559 views | deeplishblue |
Won't closing the pubs that don't serve meals mean that more people will congregate in the ones that do?
Don't particularly like it but wouldn't it be better if they just shut all the pubs for a month until the R Rate falls below 1. |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:26 - Oct 20 with 1548 views | D_Alien |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:42 - Oct 20 by 49thseason |
Fine. How many are they going to kill by denying healthcare to them via cancelled appointments and from the fear they have deliberatlely instilled in the population? One estimate I have seen today is 75,000 .
What would the death rates have been earlier in the year if they hadnt sent people from hospital back into their care homes, something they are apparently planning to do again
And now the rumour is that they are sending the army in to enforce the NWest lockdown "pour encourager les autres".
Has anyone heard from our MPs on any of this? The silence is deafening, still at least they all got a pay rise. |
I'm well aware (almost certainly better than you) of the knock-on effect on healthcare of hospitals not having the capacity to treat those with illness/diseases other than Covid during the first wave
So, i'll ask you - and i expect an answer: what do you think will happen if we didn't take the measures that are being taken (and you're recommending shouldn't be taken) if we allowed Covid to overwhelm the healthcare system now? How would that help patients with serious disease profiles? | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:28 - Oct 20 with 1548 views | blackdogblue |
How much is it to Todmorden on the train & any Sam Smiths pubs? 😢 |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:47 - Oct 20 with 1506 views | 442Dale |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:28 - Oct 20 by blackdogblue |
How much is it to Todmorden on the train & any Sam Smiths pubs? 😢 |
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-covid-alert-level-very-high?priority-taxon=774
<<In addition, we are advising people not to travel into or out of an area if it has been categorised as a very high alert level area. This is part of wider measures to help manage the risk of transmission. You can continue to travel into or out of very high alert level areas if you need to for work, education, to access youth services or because of caring responsibilities.>> | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:54 - Oct 20 with 1494 views | mightydale |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:26 - Oct 20 by D_Alien |
I'm well aware (almost certainly better than you) of the knock-on effect on healthcare of hospitals not having the capacity to treat those with illness/diseases other than Covid during the first wave
So, i'll ask you - and i expect an answer: what do you think will happen if we didn't take the measures that are being taken (and you're recommending shouldn't be taken) if we allowed Covid to overwhelm the healthcare system now? How would that help patients with serious disease profiles? |
Thought the mask were there to help control the virus spread and help the NHS, What a great job they are doing.
They are less people in ICU Beds then this time last year, ICU Admissions always raise this time of year it nothing new.
How has it help patients when all the NHS care about is COVID , we will see the effects of this over the next few years.
My wife lost her uncle cause of the NHS obession with Covid, he'd still be alive now if it wasn't for the NHS actions during Covid. |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:58 - Oct 20 with 1479 views | tony_roch975 |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:26 - Oct 20 by D_Alien |
I'm well aware (almost certainly better than you) of the knock-on effect on healthcare of hospitals not having the capacity to treat those with illness/diseases other than Covid during the first wave
So, i'll ask you - and i expect an answer: what do you think will happen if we didn't take the measures that are being taken (and you're recommending shouldn't be taken) if we allowed Covid to overwhelm the healthcare system now? How would that help patients with serious disease profiles? |
But if, as the evidence and SAGE suggest, these measures are insufficient to significantly reduce transmissions, what's the point in merely causing more economic and mental health damage to people in the north - if you believe the need to protect the NHS is paramount than why not support a full lockdown as in March? | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:00 - Oct 20 with 1470 views | blackdogblue |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:47 - Oct 20 by 442Dale |
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-covid-alert-level-very-high?priority-taxon=774
<<In addition, we are advising people not to travel into or out of an area if it has been categorised as a very high alert level area. This is part of wider measures to help manage the risk of transmission. You can continue to travel into or out of very high alert level areas if you need to for work, education, to access youth services or because of caring responsibilities.>> |
I was joking but on a serious note, it is advisory not a law, you cannot be arrested for it | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:05 - Oct 20 with 1448 views | D_Alien |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:58 - Oct 20 by tony_roch975 |
But if, as the evidence and SAGE suggest, these measures are insufficient to significantly reduce transmissions, what's the point in merely causing more economic and mental health damage to people in the north - if you believe the need to protect the NHS is paramount than why not support a full lockdown as in March? |
It's not about "the North" - or any other region of the country, it's about applying measures which will - as Prof JVT said during tonight's press conference - have sufficient impact in those regions which have the highest rates of transmission without imposing quite unnecessary restrictions on those regions which don't
If there's sufficient compliance by local populations, Tier 3 measures would do the trick
The door remains open for local politicians to add further national funding to assist with economic hardship during the course of this week, i.e. to show leadership | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:06 - Oct 20 with 1448 views | James1980 |
Ambiguity has been one of the issues from the very start in my opinion. That ambiguity has helped fuel the conspiracy theory cranks. | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:16 - Oct 20 with 1415 views | tony_roch975 |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:05 - Oct 20 by D_Alien |
It's not about "the North" - or any other region of the country, it's about applying measures which will - as Prof JVT said during tonight's press conference - have sufficient impact in those regions which have the highest rates of transmission without imposing quite unnecessary restrictions on those regions which don't
If there's sufficient compliance by local populations, Tier 3 measures would do the trick
The door remains open for local politicians to add further national funding to assist with economic hardship during the course of this week, i.e. to show leadership |
But Prof Chris Whitty the chief medical officer, warned that even the toughest curbs of Tier 3 would probably not contain the spread of the virus in the worst-hit areas. “The base will not be sufficient. I think that’s very clearly the professional view,” he said.
When London was much the worst hotspot in March we didn't just lockdown London, now it's the North suddenly it's just our problem. It's like ringing up the Luftwaffe in WWII to say can you not bomb us please cos we don't agree with this war. We contracted this pandemic as one nation and we should get through it as one nation.
The door remains open for the tax raisers (national government) to provide the funding ie to show leadership. | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:17 - Oct 20 with 1412 views | 442Dale |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:00 - Oct 20 by blackdogblue |
I was joking but on a serious note, it is advisory not a law, you cannot be arrested for it |
Yep. It’s also a possible solution for individuals who ask around routes out of all this. As it always was. | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:23 - Oct 20 with 1400 views | rochdaleriddler |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:05 - Oct 20 by D_Alien |
It's not about "the North" - or any other region of the country, it's about applying measures which will - as Prof JVT said during tonight's press conference - have sufficient impact in those regions which have the highest rates of transmission without imposing quite unnecessary restrictions on those regions which don't
If there's sufficient compliance by local populations, Tier 3 measures would do the trick
The door remains open for local politicians to add further national funding to assist with economic hardship during the course of this week, i.e. to show leadership |
Tier 3 restrictions will not do the trick,Whitt’s said so, the amount of people out in bars etc is already much reduced. People didn’t fully comply at the beginning, they sure as hell won’t now . What will happen is that we will be stuck in this position for months. As for showing leadership, if the government wanted to adequately protect businesses and individuals in the region , it would just offer up the money, and not offer less than has been given to other areas. If we had a Labour Govt and a Tory mayor you would be singing his praises for sticking it to the London elite. | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:27 - Oct 20 with 1376 views | rochdaleriddler |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:28 - Oct 20 by blackdogblue |
How much is it to Todmorden on the train & any Sam Smiths pubs? 😢 |
Far better pubs and beer in tod | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 19:29 - Oct 20 with 1374 views | rochdaleriddler |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:22 - Oct 20 by deeplishblue |
Won't closing the pubs that don't serve meals mean that more people will congregate in the ones that do?
Don't particularly like it but wouldn't it be better if they just shut all the pubs for a month until the R Rate falls below 1. |
Given that hardly any transmission is in pubs, what would be the point | |
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