| Expected goals 23:54 - Oct 19 with 5526 views | northampton_hoop |
I might be a bit thick (probably true innit) but watching motd and on the stats at the end of each game one of the stats is expected goals, this is followed by a 2.43 or whatever. What’s that all about? [Post edited 20 Oct 2019 0:00]
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| Expected goals on 00:08 - Oct 20 with 4446 views | Match82 |
As far as I can tell it's based on how many goals you would be expected to score based on the position of the shots you had. I.e. if you just had two shots from 25 yards out and 10% of shots from that position go in, that's 10% + 10% = 0.2 "expected goals"
So if ours says 2.43 then based on all of the attempts we had, stats say on average we would have scored 2.43 goals |  | | |
| Expected goals on 00:27 - Oct 20 with 4388 views | stowmarketrange |
| Expected goals on 00:08 - Oct 20 by Match82 |
As far as I can tell it's based on how many goals you would be expected to score based on the position of the shots you had. I.e. if you just had two shots from 25 yards out and 10% of shots from that position go in, that's 10% + 10% = 0.2 "expected goals"
So if ours says 2.43 then based on all of the attempts we had, stats say on average we would have scored 2.43 goals |
So a load of bullox really?Anything to try and compare stats like American sports. |  | | |
| Expected goals on 00:36 - Oct 20 with 4374 views | northampton_hoop |
| Expected goals on 00:27 - Oct 20 by stowmarketrange |
So a load of bullox really?Anything to try and compare stats like American sports. |
Pretty much what I thought. Pointless stat that means nothing at all. | | | |
| Expected goals on 00:44 - Oct 20 with 4359 views | smegma |
What it is is a load b0llocks. Most stats are except the score line. |  | | |
| Expected goals on 03:57 - Oct 20 with 4251 views | Match82 |
| Expected goals on 00:44 - Oct 20 by smegma |
What it is is a load b0llocks. Most stats are except the score line. |
Yeah I'll be honest I love stuff like this.
You're not wrong, at the end of the day the scoreline is the only thing that matters. On the day.
But the first time someone says "we deserved..." then at least you actually have something more than pure bllshit backing it up | | | |
| Expected goals on 07:54 - Oct 20 with 4100 views | stowmarketrange |
Sky sports come out with even more craps stats like duels won and the amount of dribbles.
Why don’t they go the whole hog and list whspits the most,or who has rolled over the furthest after supposedly getting fouled. | | | |
| Expected goals on 08:52 - Oct 20 with 4005 views | Hunterhoop |
Obviously the score line is the only stat that really matters.
But the expected goals star is far more insightful than any other, IMO. It gives you a very quick and accurate view as to who of both sides deserved to win.
I believe the bookies have been using this stat for a while at the start of season, before the league has really settled down to help inform how they should price up co tests.
And I remember a couple of years ago, when Brentford were near the bottom after 8 games or so but the Expected Goals was really high, low and behold they started winning and powered up the league. |  | | |
| Expected goals on 09:45 - Oct 20 with 3928 views | stowmarketrange |
| Expected goals on 08:52 - Oct 20 by Hunterhoop |
Obviously the score line is the only stat that really matters.
But the expected goals star is far more insightful than any other, IMO. It gives you a very quick and accurate view as to who of both sides deserved to win.
I believe the bookies have been using this stat for a while at the start of season, before the league has really settled down to help inform how they should price up co tests.
And I remember a couple of years ago, when Brentford were near the bottom after 8 games or so but the Expected Goals was really high, low and behold they started winning and powered up the league. |
Did they move up the table because they started winning games or because they read the stats on expected goals?
Or should the league table be organised on expected goals rather than points won?
I’m not having a dig mate but I just think it’s a pointless stat. | | | |
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| Expected goals on 10:13 - Oct 20 with 3879 views | BrianMcCarthy |
The one stat I always look at is goal difference.
Before yesterday we were -1 and they were -2, so they must have something about them. I thought they were quite useful and smart tactically - they gave us a lot of problems with the ball in behind our full-backs, dominated the wings in the first half while putting a wall in front of Eze and Chair. They couldn't cope with Eze second half, though, and we drew them out. I thought that even at 3-1 they looked dangerous and I'm sure none of us were surprised when they scored again.
Being fifth with a goal difference of 0 is very unusual and suggests that we might be riding our luck a little perhaps? |  |
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| Expected goals on 10:45 - Oct 20 with 3831 views | timcocking |
It's fcuking ludicrous, is what it is. |  | | |
| Expected goals on 10:57 - Oct 20 with 3818 views | CamberleyR |
| Expected goals on 10:13 - Oct 20 by BrianMcCarthy |
The one stat I always look at is goal difference.
Before yesterday we were -1 and they were -2, so they must have something about them. I thought they were quite useful and smart tactically - they gave us a lot of problems with the ball in behind our full-backs, dominated the wings in the first half while putting a wall in front of Eze and Chair. They couldn't cope with Eze second half, though, and we drew them out. I thought that even at 3-1 they looked dangerous and I'm sure none of us were surprised when they scored again.
Being fifth with a goal difference of 0 is very unusual and suggests that we might be riding our luck a little perhaps? |
Not that unusual Brian. Sheffield Wednesday were sixth after twelve games last season with a goal difference of only +1. |  |
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| Expected goals on 11:05 - Oct 20 with 3797 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Expected goals on 10:57 - Oct 20 by CamberleyR |
Not that unusual Brian. Sheffield Wednesday were sixth after twelve games last season with a goal difference of only +1. |
Ya, I'm sure it's not unprecedented Cambs.
For now, it's great. Just not sure we're going to keep getting away with it. | |
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| Expected goals on 12:32 - Oct 20 with 3723 views | Hunterhoop |
| Expected goals on 09:45 - Oct 20 by stowmarketrange |
Did they move up the table because they started winning games or because they read the stats on expected goals?
Or should the league table be organised on expected goals rather than points won?
I’m not having a dig mate but I just think it’s a pointless stat. |
Easy Stow. Just making the point that the stat indicated they were much better than their results to that point showed and this turned out to be the case because they started to get the results their Expected Goals differential indicated they should be getting.
I think it’s a very useful way of predicting who will see an uptick or continuation in their results. | | | |
| Expected goals on 12:34 - Oct 20 with 3720 views | Hunterhoop |
| Expected goals on 10:13 - Oct 20 by BrianMcCarthy |
The one stat I always look at is goal difference.
Before yesterday we were -1 and they were -2, so they must have something about them. I thought they were quite useful and smart tactically - they gave us a lot of problems with the ball in behind our full-backs, dominated the wings in the first half while putting a wall in front of Eze and Chair. They couldn't cope with Eze second half, though, and we drew them out. I thought that even at 3-1 they looked dangerous and I'm sure none of us were surprised when they scored again.
Being fifth with a goal difference of 0 is very unusual and suggests that we might be riding our luck a little perhaps? |
Agree GD is an interesting indicator. The point I was making is that Exp Goals has come in because the bookies, whose job revolves around predicting outcomes, believe Exp Goals to n a better indicator of true form/capability.
The media have picked up on that. I like that fans can now see it. | | | |
| Expected goals on 13:06 - Oct 20 with 3663 views | Match82 |
| Expected goals on 09:45 - Oct 20 by stowmarketrange |
Did they move up the table because they started winning games or because they read the stats on expected goals?
Or should the league table be organised on expected goals rather than points won?
I’m not having a dig mate but I just think it’s a pointless stat. |
Really depends what you think stats are for.
If you bet, could give you an advantage knowing which teams are better than a cursory glance at the league table suggests.
Stats, much like facts, can also be the difference between your viewpoint on a topic being "because I say so" and "here's some evidence". | | | |
| Expected goals on 13:33 - Oct 20 with 3620 views | DavieQPR |
B*llsh*t baffles brains. |  | | |
| Expected goals on 16:31 - Oct 20 with 3518 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Expected goals on 12:34 - Oct 20 by Hunterhoop |
Agree GD is an interesting indicator. The point I was making is that Exp Goals has come in because the bookies, whose job revolves around predicting outcomes, believe Exp Goals to n a better indicator of true form/capability.
The media have picked up on that. I like that fans can now see it. |
I don't yet know how Expected Goals works, to be honest Hunter, but if the bookies are using it then it has value.
I like stats, we use them extensively in the GAA teams I help out with. They won't ever replace the naked eye but they add a lot to understanding a team's strengths and weaknesses, or a player's. They can be an enormous help coaches to focus in on key areas to address in training sessions, but they can also be misinterpreted. | |
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| Expected goals on 16:57 - Oct 20 with 3485 views | stowmarketrange |
| Expected goals on 12:32 - Oct 20 by Hunterhoop |
Easy Stow. Just making the point that the stat indicated they were much better than their results to that point showed and this turned out to be the case because they started to get the results their Expected Goals differential indicated they should be getting.
I think it’s a very useful way of predicting who will see an uptick or continuation in their results. |
Why don’t They a useful stat then like shots on target?If you’re playing well you tend to have more shots,or corners?
We’ve had more shots than our opponents this season,according to the stats in akutr’s,so why complicate things with expected goals? | | | |
| Expected goals on 17:32 - Oct 20 with 3436 views | Hunterhoop |
| Expected goals on 16:57 - Oct 20 by stowmarketrange |
Why don’t They a useful stat then like shots on target?If you’re playing well you tend to have more shots,or corners?
We’ve had more shots than our opponents this season,according to the stats in akutr’s,so why complicate things with expected goals? |
Because it goes a level beyond shots on target.
There’s a difference between speculative shots on target that are routine saves, and those that are closer shots on target from inside the box? Equally, what about lots of having great chances you hit the woodwork or narrowly wide? Won’t show up as “on target” but with Expected Goals it takes that into consideration.
I like it. I think it’s useful to fans and those who gamble. IMO it paints a more accurate picture than any other stat other than actual goals scored, of course! If you don’t like the stat, absolutely fine; you’re choice. But don’t insinuate it is de facto b*llocks; as i’ve explained, there are reasons to hold a different view. | | | |
| Expected goals on 17:36 - Oct 20 with 3429 views | smegma |
| Expected goals on 13:06 - Oct 20 by Match82 |
Really depends what you think stats are for.
If you bet, could give you an advantage knowing which teams are better than a cursory glance at the league table suggests.
Stats, much like facts, can also be the difference between your viewpoint on a topic being "because I say so" and "here's some evidence". |
I don't bet.
I go to football.
A lot.
The only stat that matters is the goals column. Bobby Zamora Day is a prime example of this. | | | |
| Expected goals on 17:39 - Oct 20 with 3420 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Expected goals on 17:36 - Oct 20 by smegma |
I don't bet.
I go to football.
A lot.
The only stat that matters is the goals column. Bobby Zamora Day is a prime example of this. |
Yes, in the short term Smeg, or in a one-off Final.
But if Rangers were top of the league after three 1-0 Bobby Zamorra-type 1-0 wins, you and I would be chatting about how we were in a false position and that the goals scored for us and our three oppositions needed to be taken with a pinch of salt. | |
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| Expected goals on 17:43 - Oct 20 with 3412 views | smegma |
| Expected goals on 17:39 - Oct 20 by BrianMcCarthy |
Yes, in the short term Smeg, or in a one-off Final.
But if Rangers were top of the league after three 1-0 Bobby Zamorra-type 1-0 wins, you and I would be chatting about how we were in a false position and that the goals scored for us and our three oppositions needed to be taken with a pinch of salt. |
No I wouldn't.
A lot of these stats are for blokes who watch football in the pub to make them sound like they know what they're talking about. On the rare occasions I watch football in the pub I want to kill most know it all 'fans'. | | | |
| Expected goals on 17:44 - Oct 20 with 3407 views | stowmarketrange |
| Expected goals on 17:32 - Oct 20 by Hunterhoop |
Because it goes a level beyond shots on target.
There’s a difference between speculative shots on target that are routine saves, and those that are closer shots on target from inside the box? Equally, what about lots of having great chances you hit the woodwork or narrowly wide? Won’t show up as “on target” but with Expected Goals it takes that into consideration.
I like it. I think it’s useful to fans and those who gamble. IMO it paints a more accurate picture than any other stat other than actual goals scored, of course! If you don’t like the stat, absolutely fine; you’re choice. But don’t insinuate it is de facto b*llocks; as i’ve explained, there are reasons to hold a different view. |
So it’s basically only useful for the gamblers amongst us?Thats why I don’t think they are useful then. | | | |
| Expected goals on 17:45 - Oct 20 with 3404 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Expected goals on 17:43 - Oct 20 by smegma |
No I wouldn't.
A lot of these stats are for blokes who watch football in the pub to make them sound like they know what they're talking about. On the rare occasions I watch football in the pub I want to kill most know it all 'fans'. |
You're a character, Smeg. | |
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| Expected goals on 17:48 - Oct 20 with 3399 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| Expected goals on 10:13 - Oct 20 by BrianMcCarthy |
The one stat I always look at is goal difference.
Before yesterday we were -1 and they were -2, so they must have something about them. I thought they were quite useful and smart tactically - they gave us a lot of problems with the ball in behind our full-backs, dominated the wings in the first half while putting a wall in front of Eze and Chair. They couldn't cope with Eze second half, though, and we drew them out. I thought that even at 3-1 they looked dangerous and I'm sure none of us were surprised when they scored again.
Being fifth with a goal difference of 0 is very unusual and suggests that we might be riding our luck a little perhaps? |
We’ve had a couple of random hidings too. |  | | |
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