| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:36 - Feb 7 with 1583 views | Highjack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:27 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
Steve Bruce has been in football for 40 years and he's still a shit manager.
I follow Swansea matches 'on screen' because sadly I can't afford to play $4,000 a matchday to fly from Melbourne to Wales to attend the Liberty.
Enjoy living in the delusions that are Swansea's 'excellent performances of late'. |
Steve Bruce isn't a s hit manager.
Numerous promotions from the Championship, decent record in the Prem with smaller clubs, cup finals etc.
He certainly isn't a top manager but there are thousands out there who would kill for a record like his. |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:36 - Feb 7 with 1582 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:27 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
Steve Bruce has been in football for 40 years and he's still a shit manager.
I follow Swansea matches 'on screen' because sadly I can't afford to play $4,000 a matchday to fly from Melbourne to Wales to attend the Liberty.
Enjoy living in the delusions that are Swansea's 'excellent performances of late'. |
I thought our performance at WBA was superb. Our problem was that we couldn't get the crucial second goal.
We didn't look in trouble at all until the feckin corner. |  |
| Each time I go to Bedd - au........................ |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:37 - Feb 7 with 1574 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:32 - Feb 7 by WarwickHunt |
He lost me at "a cyclist by nature".
Eh? |
Guidolin is well known for his deep, deep love for cycling. Look up the story about him, the Giro d'Italia and the Monte Zoncolan |  |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:40 - Feb 7 with 1534 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:36 - Feb 7 by Highjack |
Steve Bruce isn't a s hit manager.
Numerous promotions from the Championship, decent record in the Prem with smaller clubs, cup finals etc.
He certainly isn't a top manager but there are thousands out there who would kill for a record like his. |
Don't bother.
This is, after all, someone who thinks that the sentence:
"gritty, hard-working midfielders...; powerhouses that, first and foremost, ran hard and tackled even harder. While still very much technically able, they were an intimidating shield..."
is then appropriately followed by the name 'Jonjo Shelvey'. | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:43 - Feb 7 with 1507 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:40 - Feb 7 by londonlisa2001 |
Don't bother.
This is, after all, someone who thinks that the sentence:
"gritty, hard-working midfielders...; powerhouses that, first and foremost, ran hard and tackled even harder. While still very much technically able, they were an intimidating shield..."
is then appropriately followed by the name 'Jonjo Shelvey'. |
If you actually read properly, you'll see that I said he would suit that role better than Ki or Cork, not that he was ideally suited to it. Jonjo gets a bad rap from you lot, no wonder he left South Wales with his tail between his legs. | |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:45 - Feb 7 with 1494 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:43 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
If you actually read properly, you'll see that I said he would suit that role better than Ki or Cork, not that he was ideally suited to it. Jonjo gets a bad rap from you lot, no wonder he left South Wales with his tail between his legs. |
I think we're getting to the crux of the issue here. |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:45 - Feb 7 with 1474 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:43 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
If you actually read properly, you'll see that I said he would suit that role better than Ki or Cork, not that he was ideally suited to it. Jonjo gets a bad rap from you lot, no wonder he left South Wales with his tail between his legs. |
'Us lot' ?
What, Swans supporters? | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:46 - Feb 7 with 1476 views | jasper_T |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:43 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
If you actually read properly, you'll see that I said he would suit that role better than Ki or Cork, not that he was ideally suited to it. Jonjo gets a bad rap from you lot, no wonder he left South Wales with his tail between his legs. |
In what universe is Shelvey more gritty and hard-working than Jack Cork? | | | |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:46 - Feb 7 with 1467 views | Islander |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:45 - Feb 7 by exiledclaseboy |
I think we're getting to the crux of the issue here. |
its all rather Petty | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:47 - Feb 7 with 1467 views | ploppy |
Regardless of what the stats say, I think we've played pretty well of late. And yes, I do think you can form a judgement by "just watching" the game. Anyway, it's much better than the turgid stuff we played under Monk towards the end. I'm enjoying watching it again - and there were many times under Monk that I didn't. That's all. | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:50 - Feb 7 with 1425 views | Griffting |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 20:59 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
That's the problem, we didn't have any good chances apart from the pen. The other goal was from a tight angle from a decent distance. |
Well Routs had an opportunity one on one with the keeper which he should have scored.
You stated earlier "play like that every weekend and we will go down", granted we might have rode our luck in that particular game, but you seem to be of an opinion that every team we play is going to have the attacking quality of Everton, a team which is quite frankly bulldozing teams since we beat them and have cut through opposition far better than us at will this season. You have to be visually impaired to see we didn't dominate a 80 minutes of that game yesterday, as well as large parts of the West Brom game as well. If someone would have given me 2 wins and 2 draws from the last 4 games i would have quite frankly snapped their hand off. We got lucky at Everton, we were unfortunate at West Brom. We got what we deserved from Watford and we didn't from Crystal Palace. Football works like that and its something your stats cannot solely predict i'm afraid. We have improved away in the past few weeks no doubt and although i feel (certainly in terms of formation) we need to set up with more attacking intent at home from the start, we are definitely improving as a team. Now, that's not to say FG is going to turn these players into players they are not, but hopefully he can do well enough with what he's got, until the summer anyway. You only have to look at Klopp to see its a struggle without players that don't compliment your style. |  | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:50 - Feb 7 with 1425 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:46 - Feb 7 by jasper_T |
In what universe is Shelvey more gritty and hard-working than Jack Cork? |
I wouldn't say Shelvey is hard-working, nor would I say Cork is. Cork is slow, and gritty but all he does is receive and recycle the ball backwards or sideways.
I think it was wrong to sell Shelvey before a new manager came in and gave him another go at least. If he still had his problems after then so be it. No doubting he's got far more about him than Ki and Cork as far as pure talent is concerned. | |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:54 - Feb 7 with 1384 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:50 - Feb 7 by Griffting |
Well Routs had an opportunity one on one with the keeper which he should have scored.
You stated earlier "play like that every weekend and we will go down", granted we might have rode our luck in that particular game, but you seem to be of an opinion that every team we play is going to have the attacking quality of Everton, a team which is quite frankly bulldozing teams since we beat them and have cut through opposition far better than us at will this season. You have to be visually impaired to see we didn't dominate a 80 minutes of that game yesterday, as well as large parts of the West Brom game as well. If someone would have given me 2 wins and 2 draws from the last 4 games i would have quite frankly snapped their hand off. We got lucky at Everton, we were unfortunate at West Brom. We got what we deserved from Watford and we didn't from Crystal Palace. Football works like that and its something your stats cannot solely predict i'm afraid. We have improved away in the past few weeks no doubt and although i feel (certainly in terms of formation) we need to set up with more attacking intent at home from the start, we are definitely improving as a team. Now, that's not to say FG is going to turn these players into players they are not, but hopefully he can do well enough with what he's got, until the summer anyway. You only have to look at Klopp to see its a struggle without players that don't compliment your style. |
But this is pretty much what I'm saying though.
1. Guidolin is doing better than Curtis.
2. Playing like we did at Everton will not get us three points very often.
3. We concede too many big chances, often from set-pieces - far more than we actually take ourselves.
4. The players Guidolin would want are a lot different to the ones he has.
5. Guidolin is doing OK with what he has got, and he will get us to safety.
6. That still doesn't mean we don't have to change and evolve. | |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:55 - Feb 7 with 1368 views | jasper_T |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:50 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
I wouldn't say Shelvey is hard-working, nor would I say Cork is. Cork is slow, and gritty but all he does is receive and recycle the ball backwards or sideways.
I think it was wrong to sell Shelvey before a new manager came in and gave him another go at least. If he still had his problems after then so be it. No doubting he's got far more about him than Ki and Cork as far as pure talent is concerned. |
I'm doubting all of that, actually. | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:56 - Feb 7 with 1361 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:47 - Feb 7 by ploppy |
Regardless of what the stats say, I think we've played pretty well of late. And yes, I do think you can form a judgement by "just watching" the game. Anyway, it's much better than the turgid stuff we played under Monk towards the end. I'm enjoying watching it again - and there were many times under Monk that I didn't. That's all. |
We have played better. Not the Everton game though. And still allowing too many dangerous chances, especially from set pieces. | |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:57 - Feb 7 with 1350 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:55 - Feb 7 by jasper_T |
I'm doubting all of that, actually. |
Well we will have to agree to disagree on that one then. | |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:58 - Feb 7 with 1346 views | Islander |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:50 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
I wouldn't say Shelvey is hard-working, nor would I say Cork is. Cork is slow, and gritty but all he does is receive and recycle the ball backwards or sideways.
I think it was wrong to sell Shelvey before a new manager came in and gave him another go at least. If he still had his problems after then so be it. No doubting he's got far more about him than Ki and Cork as far as pure talent is concerned. |
naive - pure talent by definition includes intelligence - jjs is way too thick to have pure talent | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:07 - Feb 7 with 1294 views | Jackanapes |
5 pages ffs.
My spidey senses are tingling.
Australia, weird stats. I'm thinking Phd in Nutrition. [Post edited 7 Feb 2016 22:11]
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“The stupidest thing she knew was for people to act like they knew all about the things they knew absolutely nothing about.†|
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:09 - Feb 7 with 1282 views | Joe_bradshaw |
Shelvey was sold because he was disruptive in the dressing room and in training. He couldn't accept not being in the starting line-up and when he wasn't he became troublesome rather than get his head down and work harder.
Very unprofessional and £12M was too good to turn down even from a rival. |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:12 - Feb 7 with 1265 views | jasper_T |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:58 - Feb 7 by Islander |
naive - pure talent by definition includes intelligence - jjs is way too thick to have pure talent |
No athletic talent, either. Slowest player on the team from a standing start. | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:17 - Feb 7 with 1240 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:07 - Feb 7 by Jackanapes |
5 pages ffs.
My spidey senses are tingling.
Australia, weird stats. I'm thinking Phd in Nutrition. [Post edited 7 Feb 2016 22:11]
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That thought did cross my mind too. Don't think so though. | |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:36 - Feb 7 with 1167 views | AngelRangelQS |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:54 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
But this is pretty much what I'm saying though.
1. Guidolin is doing better than Curtis.
2. Playing like we did at Everton will not get us three points very often.
3. We concede too many big chances, often from set-pieces - far more than we actually take ourselves.
4. The players Guidolin would want are a lot different to the ones he has.
5. Guidolin is doing OK with what he has got, and he will get us to safety.
6. That still doesn't mean we don't have to change and evolve. |
7. Grass is green
It's abundantly clear and has been for a while that a large number of our squad just aren't good enough. That'll be addressed in the summer I'm sure, whoever the manager is. The reality is that we probably need around 6 or 7 new players in the summer and could do with offloading a similar number.
However, slowly but surely, the attitude has changed from there being a very good chance of us going down to us being only a couple of wins away from virtually being safe. Our performances have vastly improved and are definitely on an upward trajectory. Are we perfect? Of course we aren't. We are down the bottom, confidence is low and the stakes are high. We are going to see mistakes and nervy football.
Look at how Gylfi has profited from an upturn in confidence. Scored a couple of goals and is playing the best he has done all season. If a few others do the same thing, we'll stay up easily. If they don't? Well maybe we'll carry on scrapping and picking up points here and there, however we do it.... We probably only need 3 more wins and a couple of draws now. |  | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:44 - Feb 7 with 1143 views | Davillin |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 20:59 - Feb 7 by exiledclaseboy |
Thanks, Dav but that didn't help.  |
O.K., let's try this.
Statistics is the mathematical science of counting and comparing numbers.
When you have a series of near-identical events -- let's say for this example, the number of goals scored by one side in a Premier League game of football -- as soon as you have two games completed, you can add the total number of goals scored by that team, then divide that number by two [number of games played] and you have an average number scored [mean].
[There are three common definitions of average: mean, median, and mode. "Mean" is the result of the simple arithmetic act of adding, then dividing, as in the previous paragraph. I'll leave median and mode out of this, as they aren't what the poster used, above.]
I'll refer to the average in the paragraph correctly as the "mean."
Let's say two games, 1 and 2 goals = 3 goals divided by 2 games = 1.5 per game, which is the mean [average goals scored] of those two games. It's accurate arithmetically, but will become more and more accurate the more games/goals we include in the calculation.
Let's say, then, that we have data for 1,000 games, and after adding up the numbers of goals in all of those games, then divide by 1,000, we arrive at 1.75 goals per game, mean. That's far more accurate than the one we got from only 2 games.
"Regression to the mean" means simply that the more games we include in our calculation, the more accurate the mean becomes, and the "regression" part means that the number of goals to be expected from each subsequent game is more and more likely to get closer to the mean.
After including a long list of games/goals, the 1.75 will become more and more accurate so that it can get carried out to more than hundredths, such as 1.748562, which then becomes silly math and useless for our purposes.
The mathematical conclusion would be that if one were to place a bet on the number of goals scored by the subject team in the next game, getting close to the mean would be most likely to be a winner.
My reference to "bell curves" is that if one places the numbers of most normal random data into a graph, they then would form themselves into a bell shape in normal distributions. This bell curve could be short and wide, tall and narrow, etc., but both sides would be roughly or finely symmetrical. That's a bell curve.
If the sides are not basically symmetrical, but lean to one side or another, the curve is said to be skewed. The mean would remain the same for the same number of games/goals. It would not be found halfway between the least goals and most goals [which is the "median"].
However, in a game such as football, a natural bell curve would naturally "skew" toward zero goals. That is that the curve would not look like a normal curve with equal sides, but more like a drunk leaning up against a lamp post.
Most future games would have a number of goals closer to the then-existing mean, regardless of the nature of the curve.
What the original poster was saying, then, is that following normal random goal-scoring, one cannot statistically expect the goals scored in a game to be far from the mean so far, and over time the new mean after each game will be closer and closer to the previously-calculated mean.
Count on this: all gambling -- especially in casinos -- is based on the house betting that you will not hit on the mean for that game, by calculating the odds on that fact; and you, fool, will bet that you will. For example, what is the mean result of tossing two normal dice? Hint: 6+1, 5+2, 4+3, 3+4, 2+5, and 1+6.
Compare the means in poker between getting no winning hand and getting a royal flush? They're probably on the internet, but I don't need proof. The casino bets that you won't get a royal flush and are statistically more likely to get zero.
Now, the beauty of football is that a team can, indeed, affect the mean by going on an extended run of high goal-scoring. It's just that statistics tell us not to expect that. |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:45 - Feb 7 with 1131 views | Gowerjack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 20:57 - Feb 7 by Davillin |
Statistics.
[I loves it!]
It is rather a tendency that as data points are added, the tendency is to have them calculate as closer and closer to the average so far. What the tendency ignores is that bell curves exist and could exaggerate themselves as time goes on, a bit less frequently than regression to the mean. |
More Bellends than Bell Curves in my opinion. |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:53 - Feb 7 with 1102 views | WarwickHunt |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:37 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
Guidolin is well known for his deep, deep love for cycling. Look up the story about him, the Giro d'Italia and the Monte Zoncolan |
I know that.
I don't care how f*cking deep, deep it is, it isn't "in his nature" though, is it? |  | | |
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